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Arctic Front and Winter Storm Threat Sunday - Monday


OKpowdah

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1.5"/hr..

that's a nasty snowfall rate.

i'm lovin it. :sled:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1135 PM CST SAT DEC 8 2012

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

KMSP...ALL GUIDANCE NOW PUTTING MSP IN THE CROSS-HAIRS FOR THE

HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...SO SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED

TAF...WITH LIFR VIS SNOW NOW EXTENDING WELL OUT INTO THE

AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE NAM ALONG WITH CURRENT RADAR...EXPECTING

TWO BURSTS OF SNOW THIS PERIOD. FIRST WILL COME BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z

AS WARM ADVECTIVE WING OF PRECIP SWINGS THROUGH...WITH THE

NEXT...MORE PROLONGED BOUT OF HEAVY SNOW HITTING BETWEEN 14Z AND

22Z AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN MAJORITY OF

ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR...WITH SEVERAL OF THESE HOURS LIKELY

SEEING RATES AROUND 1 INCH AN HOUR. THIS TAF MAY A BIT PESSIMISTIC

WITH THE LENGTH OF 1/2SM VIS...BUT FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN

WINDOWS OF HEAVIER SNOW THAT ARE INDICATED WITH TAF. AVIATION

WEATHER WARNING WILL ALSO BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS

EXCEEDING 3/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR. AS FOR STORM TOTAL...WOULD PUT

MSP ON THE HIGHER END OF THE SCALE WITH 8-10 INCHES LOOKING MORE

AND MORE LIKELY.

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09/07z TO 10/07z SmartCast Snow Accumulation Update....

Here is my latest breakdown for snow from now to 10th at 07Z.

Watertown, SD: 4.9”

Redwood Falls, MN: 4.9”

St. Cloud, MN 5.5”

St. Paul: 6.5”

Huron, SD: 2.9”

Brainerd Lake: 3.6”

Rochester 2.8”

St. Paul Region: Currently tracking the heaviest snow starting around 17Z – 01Z, with snowfall rates up to 1.1” possible, visibilities down to 0 during this time.

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0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SW BROOKINGS 44.30N 96.80W

12/09/2012 M10.0 INCH BROOKINGS SD COCORAHS

0805 AM SNOW IVANHOE 44.46N 96.25W

12/09/2012 M13.0 INCH LINCOLN MN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0830 AM SNOW REDWOOD FALLS 44.54N 95.11W

12/09/2012 M8.0 INCH REDWOOD MN PUBLIC

0835 AM SNOW LOUISBURG 45.17N 96.17W

12/09/2012 M10.0 INCH LAC QUI PARLE MN BROADCAST MEDIA

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wow, 15 miles sw of me...i don't know how much i've gotten as living out in the country and the wind blowing that it's hard to measure but i'm sure 12" +

Now that's how you break a bad streak. :D

Quite an impressive overachiever up there. Interesting how this whole thing trended a bit south from a few days ago...which it seems we always assume the opposite will happen. Good stuff.

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SmartCast Additional Snowfall Accumulation til 10/18Z

Minneapolis: 8.7”

Eau Claire: 7”

Glencoe, St. Cloud: 6.7”

New Richmond: 7.2”

Hutchinson Muni: 6.1”

Redwood: 6.1”

Minneapolis Area: Looking for continued Mod to Heavy Snow from now til 02Z, seeing a 3-hour period from 20Z to 23Z of intense snowfall, then beginning to decrease in intensity. Snowfall rates forecasted up to 1.1”, but steady rate of .8”. Looking for winds to begin to increase after 00Z, with gusty winds up to 25MPH through 10Z.

New Richmond, WI Area: Looking at moderate snow from now til 23Z. Snowfall rates around .8” per hour during this time, then decreasing after 23Z to light now.

Eau Clair, WI Area: Looking at moderate snow from now til 03Z, with snowfall rates around .7” per hour. Visibilities down to 1/2mile or less.

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arctic front just went through and winds picking up...whiteout conditions in the open areas.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

101 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1253 PM BLIZZARD MADISON 45.01N 96.19W

12/09/2012 LAC QUI PARLE MN AWOS

SUSTAINED 38 MPH WITH A GUST TO 51 MPH AT MADISON MN

AWOS. SURROUNDING VISIBILITIES ARE 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

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SmartCast Update as of 10/20Z

Minneapolis Area: Looking at continued moderate to heavy snow from now til 05Z, average snow fall rate will be around .8” per hour. There is a 3-hour period from 22Z to 00Z of seeing 1” per hour snow rate, before slowing decreasing from there. 3-5” additional inches will be possible til 05Z. Visibilities will be 0 to ¼ mile through 07Z, then improving.

Eau Claire Area: Looking at continued moderate snow, with general snowfall rates of .6” per hour. Looking at an additional 2-4” possible until about 08Z.

New Richmond Area: Moderate Snow will continue until 02Z, then decreasing in intensity. Heavy snow will persist from 20Z til 23Z, then slowly decrease. Looking at 3-5” of additional snow possible across the area. Visibility will be ¼ or less till 10Z, then improving.

Redwood Falls: Heavy Snow will continue from now to 23Z, with snow rate around .8”, with tempo up to 1.1” possible for the next few hours. Visibility will be ¾ until 05Z then improving.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

324 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0324 PM BLIZZARD MONTEVIDEO 44.95N 95.72W

12/09/2012 CHIPPEWA MN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NUMEROUS ROADS ARE CLOSED ACROSS WESTERN

MINNESOTA...INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO US 212 FROM THE

STATE LINE TO RENVILLE. MN 7 FROM MN 40 TO US 71. MN 29

FROM US 212 TO MN 40.

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SmartCast Additional Snowfall Accumulation til 10/23Z

Minneapolis Area: Looking at continued heavy snow from now till 03Z, tempo snow rates of 1” for next couple of hours, then snow intensity should decrease. Visibilities will continue to be a ¼ mile or less till around 10Z, then improving. Winds will pick up around 02Z and be gusting around 25MPH, so expect some blowing snow. Looking for and additional 1-3” possible for the next 4-8 hours.

Eau Claire Area: Looking at moderate snow from now to 05Z, with visibility around ¼ mile or less till 05Z, then improving conditions. Snow will begin to taper off after 05Z. Looking for an additional 2-4” possible for next 4-8 hours.

New Richmond Area: Moderate snow will continue til 03Z, with ¼ mile visibility and snowfall rates of around .8” per hour. After 03Z, look for snow diminishing, but visibility will remain around ½ to 1 mile till 11Z, then improving conditions. Winds will pickup around 02Z to 13Z, gusts up to 25MPH are possible.

Full output refreshed at http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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Now that's how you break a bad streak. :D

Quite an impressive overachiever up there. Interesting how this whole thing trended a bit south from a few days ago...which it seems we always assume the opposite will happen. Good stuff.

Indeed, the southward shift was interesting. Worth noting not all cyclogenesis events end up farther W/NW. In this case the ejection point of the small scale tropopause undulation meant the difference. It is sometimes easy for us to think models can nail those things 3 days out, but those sub synoptic scale features are difficult for even the best models to handle.

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