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Arctic Front and Winter Storm Threat Sunday - Monday


OKpowdah

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There has been some good discussion on the impending pattern change that will at last open the gates to some of that air they've been hoarding up in Canada.

Now we can start to focus in on some of the individual potential events that may accompany the large scale alterations.

Top-down:

Significant cyclogenesis event in the North Pacific is the primary catalyst. Notice as it gets dual jet support and really goes to town over the Aleutians. Wait isn't that where a massive ridge was last week? ... or for that matter the last three months. Well that's one thing that changes. The ridging once over the Aleutians and Bering Straight retrogrades west, while the N Pac storm breaks cyclonically northward. It's really a beautiful event. Minor flat ridging over the eastern Pacific gets pumped up into the Gulf of Alaska, with an intensifying polar jet streak pushing north into the Yukon.

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What happens after that? Fantastic classic anticyclonic wave breaking into British Columbia! The result is a 170kt+ northerly jet diving into the Pacific Northwest. So you know the trough and all that energy bottled up over Alaska and the Gulf? Well a lot of that comes pouring southeast on the wings of this jet into the northern Rockies

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So that's the atmosphere's plans for Saturday.

I have to go TA a class ... where there's also pizza today (win!). I'll follow this up soon with a discussion on the individual shortwave events that result ... as was the initial purpose of this thread. I don't think we can rule anything out quite yet.

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The 18Z NAM (WRF/NMM) as well as the 18Z GFS have trended a tad further S and W with a potent vort max into New Mexico. These trends in the solutions today suggest a bit more in the way of moisture and even 'hint' that there may be some post frontal moisture in the cold sector further to our N and W. Forecast confidence is very low and expect changes during the next 24-48 hours until the disturbance actually gets onshore in Western Canada and enters the RAOB network. As far as the cold Canadian Air mass, that is the easy aspect of the forecast other than timing issues that is typical in guidance in handling cold dense air. We here in Central and SE Texas and even into West Central Texas will likely see temps plunge from the 70's to the mid to low 40's in a very short period of time suggesting this will be the first Blue Norther of the season for the Southern Plains.

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Part II

So we have all this energy streaming south on the leading edge of the breaking ridge. Now the issue is sorting out how this energy gets distributed into the individual impulses within the long wave trough.

You can see with the initial amplification of the ridge, there is downstream s/w development which gets ejected eastward (seen over South Dakota at hr60). This is somewhat new in model guidance. Past runs kept most of the energy dump with the wavebreaking event.

The s/w that we are interested in is the primary development at the leading edge of the breaking ridge (seen over Idaho at hr60). ... note that this is the same map I posted above, just shifting the view to North America.

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The leading s/w helps to initially suppress heights out ahead of our system diving south through the Rockies ... which is good. However, one key is balancing the wavelength between these two disturbances. As shown here, these disturbances are spaced pretty close to each other ... which prevents the second s/w to amplify and wrap up to its full potential. We would like to see a little more s/w ridging develop between the two troughs.

Unfortunately there's some more complication upstream. I gotta cut this short, but more on that later

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Part III

As it happens, the anticyclonic wavebreaking isn't quite as perfect as I said before ... don't get me wrong that is one beautiful wavebreak! But, let's take a closer look at what's happening upstream...

Normally, an anticyclonic wavebreaking ridge over the Gulf of Alaska into western North America is an excellent signal for an arctic intrusion into the CONUS. And usually something that sticks around too. So why doesn't this one? We've all been watching this pattern change closely, with high expectations. But it's clear we don't get the classic pattern everyone may have been hoping for at one time or another.

Why?

The North Pacific storm system doesn't completely cyclonically wave break upstream of the ridge, so some energy pushes eastward over the ridge ... We can watch this erode a filament of the ridge that then dives southeastward right behind our shortwave in question.

Check it out ... this is 24 after the map from the previous post. Notice that ridge filament from Saskatchewan to the Northwest Territories and the trough pushing into British Columbia.

Meanwhile, our shortwave is forced to maintain a positive tilt while getting shoved eastward.

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And just 12 hours later ... look at how far east that ridge filament has reached! And it's shoving our shortwave trough and all that arctic air east super fast. Notice that the trough maintains a positive tilt the entire way.

What takes its place is the airmass from the North Pacific disturbance ... it's still cold and we have a longwave trough anchored downstream of the E Pac ridge BUT we're getting a progressive pattern of waves from the Pacific that follow the same routine as this first one ... positively tilted, fast moving, never able to amplify.

post-128-0-06156700-1354843375_thumb.gif

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The 18Z NAM (WRF/NMM) as well as the 18Z GFS have trended a tad further S and W with a potent vort max into New Mexico. These trends in the solutions today suggest a bit more in the way of moisture and even 'hint' that there may be some post frontal moisture in the cold sector further to our N and W. Forecast confidence is very low and expect changes during the next 24-48 hours until the disturbance actually gets onshore in Western Canada and enters the RAOB network. As far as the cold Canadian Air mass, that is the easy aspect of the forecast other than timing issues that is typical in guidance in handling cold dense air. We here in Central and SE Texas and even into West Central Texas will likely see temps plunge from the 70's to the mid to low 40's in a very short period of time suggesting this will be the first Blue Norther of the season for the Southern Plains.

It's definitely been a favorable trend in that direction today. It's a potent vort max for sure. One of the things I've been looking for is for that vort to tilt more neutral to negative, and develop a PV notch. It's getting there. I think the models today have added some more mid level moisture ... which helps feedback through latent heating to develop that PV notch. Along with a little more of a low pressure trough extending northwest from the frontal zone.

Best chance will be some scattered snow showers with the vort max which I think is definitely possible. I don't think we'll be able to get a true frontal wave develop at the surface.

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Awesome discussion as always Sam. I agree with analysis, one thing I am highly skeptical for the N Plains is the development of said PV notch...I find the NAM verbatim hard to believe given the closed flow off the GOM, I think this potential event is more related to pure strong low level baroclinity...something more like the GFS seems realistic. Not sure LHR is going to play a feedback role in this event. That said, leading PV anomaly ejecting the plains is impressive...definitely some vertical stretching of PV anomaly leeside the Rockies going on as well.

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Take this exact same upper flow pattern and move it 500 miles south leeside of the Rockies, and we would be looking at a full blown Colorado Low working GOM moisture. As is, the impressive low level forcing is going to likely develop a very stout frontogenetic band. This is shaping up to be a classic N Plains leeside cyclone clipper event (i.e., dry baroclinic dynamics) with open wave aloft and shallow but intense closed low 850 - surface.

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This is mostly why I am skeptical of the NAM solution verbatim...the disconnect between the GOM moisture and the presence of a rather stout secondary leeside cyclone to the south...which is displaced from the parent cyclone/baroclinic zone across the N Plains. I see this as being a nice frontogenesis event, and I think it is going to fool some folks with the potential snowfalls given the displacement of the mid level wave into the cold sector.

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This is mostly why I am skeptical of the NAM solution verbatim...the disconnect between the GOM moisture and the presence of a rather stout secondary leeside cyclone to the south...which is displaced from the parent cyclone/baroclinic zone across the N Plains. I see this as being a nice frontogenesis event, and I think it is going to fool some folks with the potential snowfalls given the displacement of the mid level wave into the cold sector.

How's this looking for minnesota...decent snow event?

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How's this looking for minnesota...decent snow event?

I would like to see the 00z ECMWF in full, but it is looking like a potentially good snow event for portions of central MN, albeit localized. I am never certain on these small scale PV anomalies embedded within the low...the models simply don't handle them well. Since cyclogenesis is going to be highly dependent upon depth width of said feature, even a slight initialization error can be the difference between a junky weak surface wave or a strong low level cyclone...especially given the synoptic height pattern.

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Great discussion, I love reading this stuff. Very cold weather moving into Utah but fairly moisture starved at the same time. The front has strong enough dynamics I still expect some kind of precip with it anyway. 700mb RH looks good briefly as well.

This is looking like a halfway decent lake event for the Salty Toilet. I never underestimate that lake in NW flow, especially given how cold the 700 Ts look. Classic dry UT Powder.

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I would like to see the 00z ECMWF in full, but it is looking like a potentially good snow event for portions of central MN, albeit localized. I am never certain on these small scale PV anomalies embedded within the low...the models simply don't handle them well. Since cyclogenesis is going to be highly dependent upon depth width of said feature, even a slight initialization error can be the difference between a junky weak surface wave or a strong low level cyclone...especially given the synoptic height pattern.

Thanks. 0z euro is better with qpf for my area than the 12z run so we shall see.

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Thanks. 0z euro is better with qpf for my area than the 12z run so we shall see.

00z EC had a dramatic shift aloft, but it is still what I would classify as a weak positive tilt wave. PV notch as wxwatcher mentioned never develops in EC run. I wouldn't discount the GFS yet.EVen then, thermals are so-so, I keep forgetting that 850ts of -5-6 in the plains means nothing. Alaska has my weather senses warped.

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ABQ to AMA may well be the areas to watch in the next 24 to 36 hours. ABQ is now mentioning accumulation possible into the Rio Grande River Valley with fairly significant totals for the Northern and Central Mountains into the Rolling Plains. The best guess with the model mayhem at this juncture would appear to be along and N of the I-20 Corridor for minor accumulations even into FWD. There still remains a lot of uncertainty and this is a low confidence forecast at this time. Should the trends continue, Warning criteria may be met for most if not all the ABQ Region with the potential for Advisories on E. As the weekend unfolds.

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00z EC had a dramatic shift aloft, but it is still what I would classify as a weak positive tilt wave. PV notch as wxwatcher mentioned never develops in EC run. I wouldn't discount the GFS yet.EVen then, thermals are so-so, I keep forgetting that 850ts of -5-6 in the plains means nothing. Alaska has my weather senses warped.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1041 AM CST FRI DEC 7 2012

THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING INTO A

SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A WINTER STORM

WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA

FROM SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...AND OVER WEST CENTRAL

WISCONSIN FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY

NIGHT. THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT

NORTH OF A LINE FROM MANKATO TO RED WING TO EAU CLAIRE...INCLUDING

THE TWIN CITIES METRO. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY

SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW

COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY

AND COULD CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY

REMAINS WITH SNOW RATIOS...AND WHETHER BLOWING SNOW WOULD CAUSE

VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE...TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH AT

THIS TIME.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING

THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING...

AND TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

DEVELOPING SUNDAY...CAUSING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OPEN

AREAS.

post-252-0-84968200-1354900308_thumb.png

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:thumbsup:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

349 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2012

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...

LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...

FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...BENSON...WILLMAR...

LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...HUTCHINSON

349 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT

CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS

IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE

WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATE

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE

INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO FALL

NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL

DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25

MPH AND GUSTS APPROACH 35 MPH. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED IN OPEN AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94

WHERE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL

SUBSIDE LATE SUNDAY EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

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Just saw upgrade to warnings. I am betting some of it may be to first decent snowfall in ages. A very interesting event. This storm structure is rather odd...not typical to see heaviest snow along a cold front oriented in such a fashion...especially one not of arctic origins.

I'm sure thats part of it...after last years disaster of a winter i'll be happy if i get half of what mpx is calling for.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM

352 PM MST FRI DEC 7 2012

...WINTER SLAMS INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.A WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND

SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE COLDER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE

STATE SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BE AN ABRUPT AND RADICAL CHANGE

TO THE RECENT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER

THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH DURING THE

AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE

EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL

MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE BY

MONDAY MORNING.

NMZ512>516-523-527>529-081200-

/O.NEW.KABQ.WS.A.0010.121209T1300Z-121210T1200Z/

WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-

NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-

SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-

EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-

CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-

FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-

352 PM MST FRI DEC 7 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

SUNDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE

ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN

HIGHLANDS...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE UPPER RIO

GRANDE VALLEY.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE

NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END BY MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* SNOW LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ALL

LOCATIONS.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW

AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. TRAVEL MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...

INCLUDING ALONG INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN GLORIETA PASS AND THE

COLORADO BORDER AND INTERSTATE 40 NEAR CLINES CORNERS. WIND

CHILLS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...BOTH ABOVE AND

BELOW ZERO...SUNDAY NIGHT.

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I'm sure thats part of it...after last years disaster of a winter i'll be happy if i get half of what mpx is calling for.

I still believe highest amounts will be in narrow band...will be tough to hit 8 inches given the orientation and lack of moisture. Twin Cities going to be tough to verify storm warnings...jackpot zone will be along the triple point farther N where tropopause undulation intersects front. That said, it isn't a bad warning, especially after the awful winter last year. People don't react well to the first decent snowfall in a long time.

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I still believe highest amounts will be in narrow band...will be tough to hit 8 inches given the orientation and lack of moisture. Twin Cities going to be tough to verify storm warnings...jackpot zone will be along the triple point farther N where tropopause undulation intersects front. That said, it isn't a bad warning, especially after the awful winter last year. People don't react well to the first decent snowfall in a long time.

I need another 1" from this weekends system to beat the Dec total of last year which was 2"...just over an 1" today.

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This is looking like a halfway decent lake event for the Salty Toilet. I never underestimate that lake in NW flow, especially given how cold the 700 Ts look. Classic dry UT Powder.

On your map if you notice a tiny hole SE of the that bullseye of precip, thats where Provo is...lol I agree that the Salt Lake is not to be underestimated, but it rarely reaches here unless it really gets ripping. Even with that, most models show something for everybody. Also, we have another shot on Monday with warm advection and maybe next thursday too.

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Found this pretty cool. Reminded me of a triple point bullseye kind of when looking for supercells in the spring.

Too tired to go superl into detail but this was taken off the 0z GFS valid 24hrs out just look at that the heavy snow potential given the ingredients progged. Northeast SD sitting in the left exit region of the strong mid-upper level jet seen top left with also a 50kt southerly LLJ into the target area if you will and as you can see, you get a maximized area of UVV's which translates to heavy precip rates.

A fun little event to watch unfold.

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