Pattern Discussion 12/15 and beyond

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well hopefully we can try to cash in on something before a possible relaxation later this month? Two threats it seems after next week...22 and maybe 28 or so. It's the best look we've had yet so if nothing happens, then I'm sure people will never want to talk long range, but it is what it is. Sometimes things bust right in a crappy pattern, and the opposite can happen.

The last break I caught was Jan 2011....and the beat goes on.

[HM]

_{While the placement of the h5 anomalies continues to point to 2010 as a possible analog, the situation isn't really the same. This upcoming "west based -NAO" while legitimate is not the same thing as 2010, especially as it gets absorbed into Quebec.}

[HM]

The top QBO analogs from this falls data match up perfectly with the December pattern we have seen. Above normal temperatures with the greatest positive height anomalies centered over the MS Valley. Aloft...a vortex north of Alaska with a -PNA/West Coast trough and ridge trying to poke to the Aleutians...a SE Ridge...and a Scandinavian block. That's the pattern we're seeing right now.

By January, the QBO analogs signal this pattern....and we're starting to see this exact hemispheric set up on the long range ensembles.

Good post and follow-up post. The QBO and other stratospheric analogs have been very good at pointing toward our sensible weather ever since the strat/trop became coupled.

If that continues to be the case, the real deal hasn't really hit yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good post and follow-up post. The QBO and other stratospheric analogs have been very good at pointing toward our sensible weather ever since the strat/trop became coupled.

If that continues to be the case, the real deal hasn't really hit yet.

Epic January

[Isotherm]

_{While the placement of the h5 anomalies continues to point to 2010 as a possible analog, the situation isn't really the same. This upcoming "west based -NAO" while legitimate is not the same thing as 2010, especially as it gets absorbed into Quebec.}

No reason to whisper it, I completely agree. Another major difference was the Aleutian ridge extension nwd into Siberia allowed the cold anomalies to slide southeastward into the CONUS. The absence of any higher than normal heights in nern AK/NE Siberia has yielded a very cold-free December thus far in the East, which obviously wasn't the case in 2010.

[Isotherm]

PNA was negative in 2010 but the key index for cold in the Northeast is the EPO, and that was negative in Dec 2010. So far this month we've been positive, as confirmed by the low height anomalies. That should change in another week or so as we neutralize the EPO and get more Siberian delivery into the CONUS.

[HM]

Epic January

It's going to take time so I don't know if we can call the whole month epic. I don't think this "MJO phase 1" is legitimate and is more EOF confusion over a kelvin wave.

No reason to whisper it, I completely agree. Another major difference was the Aleutian ridge extension nwd into Siberia allowed the cold anomalies to slide southeastward into the CONUS. The absence of any higher than normal heights in nern AK/NE Siberia has yielded a very cold-free December thus far in the East, which obviously wasn't the case in 2010.

The key to the west-based -NAO is to block Arctic Air and force it southward. Usually there is a 50-50 low that has these origins. This isn't going to work early in the season for us unless a fresh source exists.

Can we get snow down here? Sure...but I think the miller a-b changeover screw job is a good possibility.

[CoastalWx]

IOW, those MJO progs have conflicting signals. The three components that make it up are not all in sync. CHI progs (divergence looks meh).

[HM]

IOW, those MJO progs have conflicting signals. The three components that make it up are not all in sync. CHI progs (divergence looks meh).

Definitely. The three components are overlapping in the phase 1 octant and this is nothing but a kelvin wave. There is forcing from the IO to the western Pacific too, speaking of CHI fields. There is also Evan:

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/sp201204_5day.gif

Also notice the recent -AAM anomalies developing over the Equatorial Region as I warned could happen with feedback processes of the East-Asian Jet. Finally, the 30mb temperatures are beginning to cool a bit but are still blazing in the Central Pacific.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely. The three components are overlapping in the phase 1 octant and this is nothing but a kelvin wave. There is forcing from the IO to the western Pacific too, speaking of CHI fields. There is also Evan:

http://icons-ak.wund...201204_5day.gif

Also notice the recent -AAM anomalies developing over the Equatorial Region as I warned could happen with feedback processes of the East-Asian Jet. Finally, the 30mb temperatures are beginning to cool a bit but are still blazing in the Central Pacific.

I did notice the tendencies are going up with a little frictional and mtn torque action so lets hope. Ahh yes, Evan. That's a good point there.

[NJwinter23]

Definitely. The three components are overlapping in the phase 1 octant and this is nothing but a kelvin wave. There is forcing from the IO to the western Pacific too, speaking of CHI fields. There is also Evan:

http://icons-ak.wund...201204_5day.gif

Also notice the recent -AAM anomalies developing over the Equatorial Region as I warned could happen with feedback processes of the East-Asian Jet. Finally, the 30mb temperatures are beginning to cool a bit but are still blazing in the Central Pacific.

I did notice the tendencies are going up with a little frictional and mtn torque action so lets hope. Ahh yes, Evan. That's a good point there.

I think Evan also explains the record plummet to -48 SOI recently, that many were making a huge deal about.

Good pointers with the kelvin wave stuff...I would not have realized that on my own

[HM]

I think Evan also explains the record plummet to -48 SOI recently, that many were making a huge deal about.

Good pointers with the kelvin wave stuff...I would not have realized that on my own

Yes the SOI factor is another thing to add to the list of "bogus signals" that we have been handed. The last couple of years have really toyed with conventional, linear, ideas and correlations people have invented for the long range.

You aren't incorrect if you say,"-SOI, MJO ph 1 and -NAO_west." But when you dig deeper into why the charts are saying what they are saying, I'm not impressed.

The NAO signal really is just an abandonment of the Polar Vortex and good ridge timing. The SOI is really Evan. The MJO is really an imbedded KW in a large longitude bound area of weak, divergent CHI creating a false signal.

What's real man (besides Rob who needs a red tag btw)?

[CoastalWx]

The GEFS keep enough of a ridge into the north pole to keep colder air coming into the CONUS despite fighting the -PNA. Lets hope it is right.

[easternsnowman]

From 2007 -2010 december was near to below average, especially in 2010, last year went back to the usual decembers we had from 1990 - 2006, where I believe only 3 of those years had a below normal december. We ar now back to our normal december pattern it seems.

[NJwinter23]

Yes the SOI factor is another thing to add to the list of "bogus signals" that we have been handed. The last couple of years have really toyed with conventional, linear, ideas and correlations people have invented for the long range.

You aren't incorrect if you say,"-SOI, MJO ph 1 and -NAO_west." But when you dig deeper into why the charts are saying what they are saying, I'm not impressed.

The NAO signal really is just an abandonment of the Polar Vortex and good ridge timing. The SOI is really Evan. The MJO is really an imbedded KW in a large longitude bound area of weak, divergent CHI creating a false signal.

What's real man (besides Rob who needs a red tag btw)?

Haha yeah Rob don't want nothin to do with the red tag it appears. I read a random post of his (he posts like once every 6 months on average) the other night.

Anyhow, great insight about the tropical stuff, digging deeper into this complicated MJO material is not exactly my strength, so yeah.

[QVectorman]

Well hopefully we can try to cash in on something before a possible relaxation later this month? Two threats it seems after next week...22 and maybe 28 or so. It's the best look we've had yet so if nothing happens, then I'm sure people will never want to talk long range, but it is what it is. Sometimes things bust right in a crappy pattern, and the opposite can happen.

Glad to see our dates line up. With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another spell of colder air Jan 5-8.

[CoastalWx]

Glad to see our dates line up. With the latest GWO numbers today the new analogs indicate a 15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another spell of colder air Jan 5-7.

I just went by some of the signals models had, I didn't look at the GWO or anything and that's basically all they are. Signals.

[QVectorman]

I just went by some of the signals models had, I didn't look at the GWO or anything and that's basically all they are. Signals.

Oh ok, so it's a waste to talk about your post then? Since all it is is signals.

[CoastalWx]

Oh ok, so it's a waste to talk about your post then? Since all it is is signals.

No, no I didn't mean it like that lol. It was just commenting on the mslp progs and 500mb pattern.

[QVectorman]

No, no I didn't mean it like that lol. It was just commenting on the mslp progs and 500mb pattern.

I knew what you meant. I was just giving you a hard time I was just saying your analysis of the mslp and 500mb pattern complements my analysis. Together they give some credence to both our ideas on the end of the month and start of Jan.

[CoastalWx]

This is almost one of those deals, where the -NAO block kind of stinks and is bootleg since polar air cannot enter eastern Canada. Instead, it's marine taint from the North Atlantic. Once that weakens, you can see how models bring a refresher SE. It is helping preventing some of these storms from torching, but we'll finally replace the airmass with colder air when it weakens.

Also, it's been a good idea to question the MJO magnitude as of late, perhaps ties to HMs idea.

[CoastalWx]

The one thing models are trying to build for the first time all season is ridging into the North Pole practically. A nice thing to see as we head towards the end of the month. The H5 pattern responds with much colder air building south from Canada.

EC and Canadian show similar results. It's these features and a few others that have me liking the period after this week for a more wintry feel and possible look before NY. If anything, it could continue into early Jan.

[CoastalWx]

Obviously it could bust and troll me all you want, but after next week through early January seem to hold some promise. It's the best I felt all season, so it's not some fairytale wishcasting.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Obviously it could bust and troll me all you want, but after next week through early January seem to hold some promise. It's the best I felt all season, so it's not some fairytale wishcasting.

You're overtired. Nobody is trolling you, and nobody cares that matters about how much you post.

[powderfreak]

Obviously it could bust and troll me all you want, but after next week through early January seem to hold some promise. It's the best I felt all season, so it's not some fairytale wishcasting.

You're analysis is much appreciated. I feel relatively confident in forecasting this area in the short term with knowledge of local climo, but have absolutely no idea on long range stuff. So the thoughts and musings are very welcome.

[CoastalWx]

You're analysis is much appreciated. I feel relatively confident in forecasting this area in the short term with knowledge of local climo, but have absolutely no idea on long range stuff. So the thoughts and musings are very welcome.

It was more to those who are "sick and tired" as they say, of talking long range.

[Dsnowx53]

Obviously it could bust and troll me all you want, but after next week through early January seem to hold some promise. It's the best I felt all season, so it's not some fairytale wishcasting.

Definitely. The period after the fail Miller B (Dec 21-22) has by far the best look we've seen in any medium range model suite. Hopefully it produces.

[Hazey]

Obviously it could bust and troll me all you want, but after next week through early January seem to hold some promise. It's the best I felt all season, so it's not some fairytale wishcasting.

It's been a rough week with everything non weather related and then to ice the cake sort of speak with the pattern that advertised such promise just days ago only to go by the way side. We need something to look good on the long range models and actually come to fruition. That would help some around here I would think. Keep posting your thoughts please.

[Isotherm]

EPO forecasts right now indicate the rapid fall from +2 SD to near -1 SD during the few days prior to Christmas. Shows the EPO back positive after that but these forecasts have been changing every day and aren't reliable at all beyond D 7. However, the north Pacific pattern is progged to improve in the D 5-7 range so what we're looking at in terms of massive height rises over AK is in fact real. This will finally initiate the cross-polar flow, seeding Canada with arctic air, and providing a mechanism for the southward delivery of this air into the nern CONUS. The dying west based -NAO and building of heights in AK will both aid in finally shoving the baroclinic zone southward. Given the pattern depicted, as many of us have already said, late December is probably going to be favorable. I honestly would be surprised if we're snowless through New Years. Not an ideal pattern but much closer to a great pattern than a horrible one for the Dec 20-30 period.

Anyone notice a difference in the NPAC pattern?

Initial:

168hrs (D7)

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[weathafella]

Pretty big dead ratter on the op runs tonight.

I'm starting to get the feeling that the PNA won't let us get cold. Maybe a touch here but I'm starting to lose faith that we'll be able to switch without a meaningful PNA.