NJwinter23 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Would love to see this thread pick back up given the head ache I'm getting from all the nonsensical banter filling the other threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 So the gfs continues to forecast a 10 mb torch across Asia in the long range. The 00z 11-15 day was the best I've seen yet with it beginning to erode the center of the vortex and the cold anomalies near the pole.. The ensembles are not as aggressive as the gfs op, but both euro/gfs suites show the big warming beginning across Asia at this level. All the while, a nice warm pool remains across the Canada/Davis straight sector with the vortex on the other side of the hemisphere. At this point in time I'm pretty lost with regards to how the pattern unfolds through the entire month of Jan. It is February where I feel more confident in an excellent cold/wintry pattern shaping up for us. There is a nice 50mb warm pool that hovers over the NAO region on the EC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think the pattern past next week continues to look pretty good for storm chances here. We'll still have some blocking left over and also a bit of a +PNA. It may be something where a gravy train of lows travel across the country, bisecting it from north to south. Some storms may come close to SNE and mix, but coastal lows are in the cards too ifthe block remains stout. Maybe near 12/25 could hold some hope for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think the pattern past next week continues to look pretty good for storm chances here. We'll still have some blocking left over and also a bit of a +PNA. It may be something where a gravy train of lows travel across the country, bisecting it from north to south. Some storms may come close to SNE and mix, but coastal lows are in the cards too ifthe block remains stout. Maybe near 12/25 could hold some hope for us? yeah i agree. i'm intrigued by the pattern after mid-week through maybe 12/28 or so. thereafter i'm a little concerned we go into a period of relaxation but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think the pattern past next week continues to look pretty good for storm chances here. We'll still have some blocking left over and also a bit of a +PNA. It may be something where a gravy train of lows travel across the country, bisecting it from north to south. Some storms may come close to SNE and mix, but coastal lows are in the cards too ifthe block remains stout. Maybe near 12/25 could hold some hope for us? I'm hoping so. Models seem to have the strongest cold push yet following whatever final storm system transpires mid-late next week. it's nothing overly crazy given the lack of arctic air availability in the pattern, but some solid belows sneak in during the active Pacific driven pattern, perhaps within a little potential spike in PNA that you mention. I think the general pattern theme with blocking to the north and western trough cutting underneath continues into at least the final dec week, and guarantees we don't see crazy temp extremes in either direction, though a mix of some warmer than normal days and cooler than normal days appears equally possible (note some ridging/warmth building in the mid-cont by day 10 and looks like its hooking up with the east canada block in the 11-15 day euro ens)... How are the EP-flux vector forecasts looking? Since we have a possible strong warming event showing up in the upper stratosphere on the models, I'm guessing we should pay attention to whether these vectors favor downward propagation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'm hoping so. Models seem to have the strongest cold push yet following whatever final storm system transpires mid-late next week. it's nothing overly crazy given the lack of arctic air availability in the pattern, but some solid belows sneak in during the active Pacific driven pattern, perhaps within a little potential spike in PNA that you mention. I think the general pattern theme with blocking to the north and western trough cutting underneath continues into at least the final dec week, and guarantees we don't see crazy temp extremes in either direction, though a mix of some warmer than normal days and cooler than normal days appears equally possible (note some ridging/warmth building in the mid-cont by day 10 and looks like its hooking up with the east canada block in the 11-15 day euro ens)... How are the EP-flux vector forecasts looking? Since we have a possible strong warming event showing up in the upper stratosphere on the models, I'm guessing we should pay attention to whether these vectors favor downward propagation? Still pointing to the equator, but I don't know how much that means down the road. Maybe we can get something top down through conduction in January? The MJO stuff continues to look meh with not a good high amplitude pattern to shake thing up, but nothing that screams massive torch either. I feel like we are in the doldrums as far as what is driving the pattern. There isn't a huge driver right now...MJO isn't strong, ENSO neutral etc. Little nuances in the tropics perhaps may be enough to create a 1-2 week favorable or unfavorable pattern...but there isn't a big driver at the moment. At least imho. The very cold air isn't really there as you said, but just enough perhaps to help us out later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS sunk our battleship long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS sunk our battleship long term. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The GEFS are extremely nice looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Love that cutoff just spinning off the west coast on the long-range Euro! Jet actually reverses to become easterly over the Pac NW, first ejecting the remnant mild Pacific airmass then pulling in very cold Canadian air to replace it. Great setup for keeping the entire country cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Love that cutoff just spinning off the west coast on the long-range Euro! Jet actually reverses to become easterly over the Pac NW, first ejecting the remnant mild Pacific airmass then pulling in very cold Canadian air to replace it. Great setup for keeping the entire country cold. Yep. 22-27th or so should be very interesting on the east coast. We need a little bit more spacing to get it done but we should have a real opportunity there for a big west Atlantic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 With the MJO going into phase 1 and the 5-7 day lag for MJO induced waves to traverse the eastern US it would set us up for a wave to arrive in the east between Dec. 18-20 which is progged on the 180hr GFS and Euro moving across the upper Midwest or Great Lakes. The same wave also ushers in relatively "colder" air and plays nicely into the idea I spoke of the other day in my post about the pocket of relatively "colder" air arriving during the Dec. 21-23 time frame based off of GWO analogs for the eastern US.Using that same concept for the GWO I expect another batch of colder air Dec. 27-30. And Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Long range EC ensembles still look pretty good to me. It tries to relax after Christmas, but a much colder look to Canada coming south compared to what has been modeled as of late. There is also a threat towards the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Are the ensembles tryin to show something after x-mas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Are the ensembles tryin to show something after x-mas? You're asking D13? LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 You're asking D13? LOL... I'm curious because the GFS has been hinting at something around that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I have not been following anything in here as of late. Been working 65-70 hours a week and that will continue for another several weeks but has there been any talk about the upcoming pattern and how it has some striking similarities with the pattern we saw in Jan 2010? Certainly doesn't mean we will see similar results as similar patterns don't necessarily lead to similar results, however, it does pose major promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I have not been following anything in here as of late. Been working 65-70 hours a week and that will continue for another several weeks but has there been any talk about the upcoming pattern and how it has some striking similarities with the pattern we saw in Jan 2010? Certainly doesn't mean we will see similar results as similar patterns don't necessarily lead to similar results, however, it does pose major promise. Jan 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Jan 10? Crap...don't tell me I got the year wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well that is pretty embarrassing. oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Crap...don't tell me I got the year wrong. plug in 11 just for grins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 plug in 11 just for grins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Still pointing to the equator, but I don't know how much that means down the road. Maybe we can get something top down through conduction in January? The MJO stuff continues to look meh with not a good high amplitude pattern to shake thing up, but nothing that screams massive torch either. I feel like we are in the doldrums as far as what is driving the pattern. There isn't a huge driver right now...MJO isn't strong, ENSO neutral etc. Little nuances in the tropics perhaps may be enough to create a 1-2 week favorable or unfavorable pattern...but there isn't a big driver at the moment. At least imho. The very cold air isn't really there as you said, but just enough perhaps to help us out later this month. Yeah I'm not sure either, it just seems to me like were inevitably on this path in the stratosphere for later winter, regardless. This is the only ep-flux site I have and it is only for previous days...You have a site with the forecast going forward? http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/ep_12z_st_nh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yeah I'm not sure either, it just seems to me like were inevitably on this path in the stratosphere for later winter, regardless. This is the only ep-flux site I have and it is only for previous days...You have a site with the forecast going forward? http://ds.data.jma.g..._12z_st_nh.html I was also looking at the flux page in that FU Berlin site, but that is pure EP flux in the stratosphere, not troposphere. http://www.geo.fu-be...tics/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I was also looking at the flux page in that FU Berlin site, but that is pure EP flux in the stratosphere, not troposphere. http://www.geo.fu-be...tics/index.html Ahh I forgot about that section, thank you...I think thats really all you need because the poleward component is supposed to be in the stratosphere for a healthy brewer-dobson circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The top QBO analogs from this falls data match up perfectly with the December pattern we have seen. Above normal temperatures with the greatest positive height anomalies centered over the MS Valley. Aloft...a vortex north of Alaska with a -PNA/West Coast trough and ridge trying to poke to the Aleutians...a SE Ridge...and a Scandinavian block. That's the pattern we're seeing right now. By January, the QBO analogs signal this pattern....and we're starting to see this exact hemispheric set up on the long range ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Ahh I forgot about that section, thank you...I think thats really all you need because the poleward component is supposed to be in the stratosphere for a healthy brewer-dobson circulation Yeah I usually just look at that page when looking at those vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 For reference...here are the QBO analog December temperature anomalies and the December temperature anomalies from the first nearly two weeks of the month in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Now we know why Boxing day has shown up so much, nice Euro op fantasy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well hopefully we can try to cash in on something before a possible relaxation later this month? Two threats it seems after next week...22 and maybe 28 or so. It's the best look we've had yet so if nothing happens, then I'm sure people will never want to talk long range, but it is what it is. Sometimes things bust right in a crappy pattern, and the opposite can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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