Pattern Discussion 12/15 and beyond

[Cold Miser]

I'm punting the Dec 16 potential, as well....but after that, its fair game.

Maybe GC and cne can score on the 16th....but I'm looking beyond it.

Little bit of snow for the Pats game would be awesome.

[powderfreak]

After careful consideration over the years I've come to the conclusion that the UKMET isn't worth the kleenex I just blew my nose with

LOL you really think it's that bad? So the CMC and UKMET are out...guess it's what we all know anyway, GFS and ECMWF are the main players.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hi,first off I'm in the wrong forum I know. I was wondering if somebody here could help. I just submitted to accuweather pro. Have been looking at the GFS for a couple years have a decent understanding of what the maps mean. Is there a site to learn more about how to read these ECM maps? And the model comes out at 1 pm correct, for some reason it's still on the 00z running? Thanks to whoever has an answer, and sorry for posting this I know it's off topic.

Learning how to read the weather maps out there isn't really so trivial - it can't really be explained in a post that way and do you justice.

You're better off going to the library and/or on-line and searching for basic weather synoptics, 101, as a base, and then learning about vorticity and voriticity advection. You'll also learn about how to recognize areas of diffluence and confluence aloft, which are hugely important.

One place you may start is to look up the "Norwegian Cyclone Model", and learn about the cyclonic phases - the "how" and "why" will then occur to you, and you can formulate a directive for research that way.

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL you really think it's that bad? So the CMC and UKMET are out...guess it's what we all know anyway, GFS and ECMWF are the main players.

Eh, no - not sure how you get from "ukmet kleenex" to throwing out the CMC.

Actually, the CMC isn't much better - hahahaha. No but I do see the CMC as being less stochastic in the D3-5 range - not by a lot, but some.

[eduggs]

Should probably just talk about today's rain then. Models don't seem too far apart on how the pattern as a whole evolves. No one is trying to pin down specifics yet.

I see some pretty significant differences in the N Atlantic. If we want to say the Euro and GFS are showing the same "pattern" at day 7 then the pattern is very much overrated for mid-range synoptic forecasting.

[Alpha5]

Need something to dislodge those heights over AK. The atlantic is looking OK, but the PAC is a disaster. We do have some ridging south of AK, but its going to need some MJO help to dislodge the pattern that has established itself. Any updates on what the stratosphere is doing? Any help coming there?

[Alpha5]

Need something to dislodge those heights over AK. The atlantic is looking OK, but the PAC is a disaster. We do have some ridging south of AK, but its going to need some MJO help to dislodge the pattern that has established itself. Any updates on what the stratosphere is doing? Any help coming there?

Took a look at the MJO and it seems like were going to get a weak pulse into phase 1 over the coming days, then possibly moving through phase 2.

Phase 1 H5 composite has strong negative anomalies over AK, but the core seems to be displaced to the southwest relative to the above chart, which allows for a decent PNA ridge to pop up and drive down a ridge in the east with the help of some decent DS blocking.

[danstorm]

Hi,first off I'm in the wrong forum I know. I was wondering if somebody here could help. I just submitted to accuweather pro. Have been looking at the GFS for a couple years have a decent understanding of what the maps mean. Is there a site to learn more about how to read these ECM maps? And the model comes out at 1 pm correct, for some reason it's still on the 00z running? Thanks to whoever has an answer, and sorry for posting this I know it's off topic.

It's pretty easy, actually.

All you need to know is QPF... just open that map up, multiply by 15... and, voila, that is your snowfall forecast.

Then add 4 for "lollis".

I.e., if the QPF map shows 0.4 - 0.8 for your area, your forecast should read:

"6-12, lollis to 16."

Happy to help,

Dan

p.s. of course, there is a temperature component to all this but we'll focus on that in the next lesson. For now, we need to get you grounded in the fundamentals.

[Isotherm]

Need something to dislodge those heights over AK. The atlantic is looking OK, but the PAC is a disaster. We do have some ridging south of AK, but its going to need some MJO help to dislodge the pattern that has established itself. Any updates on what the stratosphere is doing? Any help coming there?

If that's your interpretation of an "OK Atlantic" then you must be looking for the day after tomorrow, because that's essentially an ideal NAO pattern. The EPO signal is still strongly positive but I think that will neutralize as we see a reaction from the recent -SOI burst and tropical forcing. Should promote a more Nino-like north pacific pattern in the longer term, IMO, but probably not for another 7-10 days at least.

[DavisStraight]

Hi,first off I'm in the wrong forum I know. I was wondering if somebody here could help. I just submitted to accuweather pro. Have been looking at the GFS for a couple years have a decent understanding of what the maps mean. Is there a site to learn more about how to read these ECM maps? And the model comes out at 1 pm correct, for some reason it's still on the 00z running? Thanks to whoever has an answer, and sorry for posting this I know it's off topic.

You can read through these links, they helped me quite a bit when I first started, also just read what the experts here say and you'll pick up a lot

http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/models/gfs.htm

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/index.html

[CoastalWx]

The MJO progs seem like they are weak, and Adam brought up the PS diagrams not really jiving with the Roundy plots and The Aussies, but it does try to become somewhat favorable for maybe a weak +PNA which is what models have. It's messy though with a ridge near the Aleutians and a GOA trough making the configuration not look to stable. Still, it helps, and so will the block to our northeast. I don't think we'll have a shortage of storms, but cold air is marginal.

[leo1000]

The MJO progs seem like they are weak, and Adam brought up the PS diagrams not really jiving with the Roundy plots and The Aussies, but it does try to become somewhat favorable for maybe a weak +PNA which is what models have. It's messy though with a ridge near the Aleutians and a GOA trough making the configuration not look to stable. Still, it helps, and so will the block to our northeast. I don't think we'll have a shortage of storms, but cold air is marginal.

Ya what happened to all the cold arctic air? I mean there was a lot of it before I mean even out west isn't as cold as it was.

[CoastalWx]

Ya what happened to all the cold arctic air? I mean there was a lot of it before I mean even out west isn't as cold as it was.

Well two things.

#1 Ridge out in the Aleutians not as strong ands cold air cut off from going too far south thanks to PAC jet.

#2 The west based block essentially shuts off polar air from moving into the CONUS. However, now chances of coastal storms increase significantly. So you give and take. Personally, I like seeing an active pattern even though I may get screwed. It always opens the door up for colder air to move in for whatever storm follows downstream.

If you want to have some fun, even weenie subtle signs of someting near Christmas. Don't hold me to it though..lol.

[Mr Torchey]

Any word on the weeklies?

[CoastalWx]

Any word on the weeklies?

Yes weekl 3 sort of retro'd the block SW past Hudson Bay with low height anomalies to our SE, so storm track would seemingly be offshore or closer enough for SNE. Still Aleutian ridge and -PNA. Week 4 was really spread out. Verbatim it's like a weaker week 3, but probably a lot of moving parts here. Week 4 is "you know what" sometimes anyways.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yes weekl 3 sort of retro'd the block SW past Hudson Bay with low height anomalies to our SE, so storm track would seemingly be offshore or closer enough for SNE. Still Aleutian ridge and -PNA. Week 4 was really spread out. Verbatim it's like a weaker week 3, but probably a lot of moving parts here. Week 4 is "you know what" sometimes anyways.

Yeah ...like, moving them right into the garbage can. They're bowel movement parts -

Not you, but I'm sick of hearing about that joke of tool.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah ...like, moving them right into the garbage can. They're bowel movement parts -

Not you, but I'm sick of hearing about that joke of tool.

What I meant was that it had a huge area of very weak height anomalies, all over Canada and the US, but centered near Hudson Bay. Still a trough off the west coast and Aleutian ridge. Very subtle low height anomaly west of Bermuda. That's what I meant about moving parts, it may be adjusting or relaxing from week 3, but again...take it FWIW. There wasn't anything definitive.

[Amped]

The wester troff can sometimes be good, especially for NE. A lot of storms have featured DT's Pamela Anderson pattern with cutoff lows along both coasts with a ridge in the middle of the country.

Most of them like March 1962, Feb 1969, FEB 1978 and April 1982 were late winter. December 1969 is the only early winter one. So if this pattern can hold, there will probably be interesting stuff late winter. First step is getting some cold to build up east of the Canadian Rockies, Alaskan cold does us no good.

[N. OF PIKE]

weatherfella i'm not the best with quotes but here is one that i was referring to in my post, about "tough to get snow near the coast"

Regardless of what happens there's not much of a signal for cold. We can hope enough anomalous ridging to our north can suppress the storm track some but with a pretty lame cold source it may prove difficult to get snow in the coastal plain.

As has been mentioned it doesn't look like much of a "gradient" pattern either. We will have to watch for some transient ridging to our northeast to help us out - that's why I'm still interested in this pattern I could also see 1 to 2 wintry threats with some luck (first may be next weekend).

For the cold and snow depth fetish people, unfortunately, I do expect the rest of the month to average above normal temperature wise.

One word of caution as well. If the MJO remains stout and starts rounding the circle post Christmas and especially post-New Years we're going to enter into some really toasty phases. May have a period of furnace weather to deal with.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

My only comment would be that the longer this pattern establishes itself over the PAC the harder it's going to be to dislodge significantly. I think we really need to see solid movement in the next 7-14 days so we're not left talking about "the first half of January"

If I had to guess we'll have a period with potential starting in a few days lasting to around Xmas before we end up with lower heights in the GofA and a building period of warmth in the lower 48. JMHO.

[Typhoon Tip]

What I meant was that it had a huge area of very weak height anomalies, all over Canada and the US, but centered near Hudson Bay. Still a trough off the west coast and Aleutian ridge. Very subtle low height anomaly west of Bermuda. That's what I meant about moving parts, it may be adjusting or relaxing from week 3, but again...take it FWIW. There wasn't anything definitive.

I know what you meant - you're good. I just don't like the use of the Eu weeklies... I think it's a gimmick garbage product that people pay for.

My own John-weeklies school the Euro regularly as I figure this or that, and whUP - sorry, Chris Burman is equally annoying. Ha!

[Typhoon Tip]

My only comment would be that the longer this pattern establishes itself over the PAC the harder it's going to be to dislodge significantly. I think we really need to see solid movement in the next 7-14 days so we're not left talking about "the first half of January"

If I had to guess we'll have a period with potential starting in a few days lasting to around Xmas before we end up with lower heights in the GofA and a building period of warmth in the lower 48. JMHO.

While I agree that a change in the Pac - hopefully for the better - would be great, we could do really well for recouping winter weather in the NE if the Pac delivers a steady diet of these powerful S/W's while the NAO west-based nadirs.

[Logan11]

I guess it is time that I resurface over here. I have been enjoying this fantastic below normal pattern inn Europe for the past two weeks. Monday in Krakow we never got above 10 or 11 degrees all day and socked in with ice fog.

Now with my impending return state-side on Sunday evening I hope the pattern can finally turn better over there. I liked the fact that the 0Z Euro now wants to squeeze that Sunday system under most of NY and NE. I was surprised to see that come back toward the GFS...thought the reality would be a big cutter.

This pattern over here has been ridiculous...just sorry I went too darn far east and find myself sort of in the center of the trough rather than far enough south of the mega snows in the Alps and Balkans. Looks like a fresh inch here in Krakow overnight from stuff under the upper trough.

[weathafella]

I guess it is time that I resurface over here. I have been enjoying this fantastic below normal pattern inn Europe for the past two weeks. Monday in Krakow we never got above 10 or 11 degrees all day and socked in with ice fog.

Now with my impending return state-side on Sunday evening I hope the pattern can finally turn better over there. I liked the fact that the 0Z Euro now wants to squeeze that Sunday system under most of NY and NE. I was surprised to see that come back toward the GFS...thought the reality would be a big cutter.

This pattern over here has been ridiculous...just sorry I went too darn far east and find myself sort of in the center of the trough rather than far enough south of the mega snows in the Alps and Balkans. Looks like a fresh inch here in Krakow overnight from stuff under the upper trough.

Safe travel Rick. Bring back the pattern in your back!

[Tropopause_Fold]

period from about the 17th-25th holds promise.

[moneypitmike]

I guess it is time that I resurface over here. I have been enjoying this fantastic below normal pattern inn Europe for the past two weeks. Monday in Krakow we never got above 10 or 11 degrees all day and socked in with ice fog.

Now with my impending return state-side on Sunday evening I hope the pattern can finally turn better over there. I liked the fact that the 0Z Euro now wants to squeeze that Sunday system under most of NY and NE. I was surprised to see that come back toward the GFS...thought the reality would be a big cutter.

This pattern over here has been ridiculous...just sorry I went too darn far east and find myself sort of in the center of the trough rather than far enough south of the mega snows in the Alps and Balkans. Looks like a fresh inch here in Krakow overnight from stuff under the upper trough.

Pack that with you and bring it with you, Rick. Safe travels.

[snowgeek]

I guess it is time that I resurface over here. I have been enjoying this fantastic below normal pattern inn Europe for the past two weeks. Monday in Krakow we never got above 10 or 11 degrees all day and socked in with ice fog.

Now with my impending return state-side on Sunday evening I hope the pattern can finally turn better over there. I liked the fact that the 0Z Euro now wants to squeeze that Sunday system under most of NY and NE. I was surprised to see that come back toward the GFS...thought the reality would be a big cutter.

This pattern over here has been ridiculous...just sorry I went too darn far east and find myself sort of in the center of the trough rather than far enough south of the mega snows in the Alps and Balkans. Looks like a fresh inch here in Krakow overnight from stuff under the upper trough.

Hey Rick. Have a safe trip home. Hope you fly over the alps during the day. Bet they look sweeeeeeet right now from the air. Bring back winter for us. Sneaky highs in Quebec FTW....could make next week fun around here. It's been boring as heck.

[CoastalWx]

Great 50mb warm pool moving in on the euro ensembles.

[QVectorman]

Looking at the GWO it appears we should see a shots of "relatively" colder air making its way across the Midwest or Northeast between Dec. 21-23 and then another Dec. 27-30. Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3 moving over the Midwest and/or NE (maybe coldest air of season so far based on magnitude of temp spike). All just theory on GWO and strat temps but it looks like end of dec. should be good and chilly if theory pans out.

[NJwinter23]

So the gfs continues to forecast a 10 mb torch across Asia in the long range. The 00z 11-15 day was the best I've seen yet with it beginning to erode the center of the vortex and the cold anomalies near the pole.. The ensembles are not as aggressive as the gfs op, but both euro/gfs suites show the big warming beginning across Asia at this level. All the while, a nice warm pool remains across the Canada/Davis straight sector with the vortex on the other side of the hemisphere.

At this point in time I'm pretty lost with regards to how the pattern unfolds through the entire month of Jan. It is February where I feel more confident in an excellent cold/wintry pattern shaping up for us.