Go Kart Mozart Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The 30mb temperatures are blazing over Indonesia and tropical western Pacific. WTF http://www.cpc.ncep..../temp30anim.gif Can you elaborate a bit for those of us who are knucklehead-weenies? Many thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Glad you agree and it wasn't me just ring overtired and seeing things lol. Like you, I am referring to region wide and it may be difficult for people like me on the coast, but I think this can produce for the interior, and even here if we can get a good high in place. Personally, I'm just glad to see coastal storms modeled. The Pacific retrogression idea is still a good one with a clear westward movement in the high anomaly over the N PAC between now and day 10. The smoothed ensembles present a "La Niña-east QBO / suppressed Aleutian High look" to the pattern then instead of something more poleward. In 10 days, I think the extreme subsidence over the west Pacific will end as the CHI wave comes around and reignites this Hadely Cell. I'm wondering if we can get a more extreme EPO response when this happens and not such a flat high. Between the stratosphere signaling a PV breakdown in January and the retrograding high (will this continue beyond the Aleutians or stay put?) in the N PAC, I'm thinking of going all JB on us for mid-winter. The 1946-47 analog also reaffirms this possibility, which has been a strong contender for the beginning of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Can you elaborate a bit for those of us who are knucklehead-weenies? Many thanks. Here was my response to Scott about what 30mb temperatures may do (remember that this is a combination of theory and speculation): http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38230-pattern-discussion-1215-and-beyond/#entry1900869 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Here was my response to Scott about what 30mb temperatures may do (remember that this is a combination of theory and speculation): http://www.americanw...d/#entry1900869 Check this out: http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=u&lng=eng#top Currently, the 30mb layer is still solidly in the downwelling -QBO wave with -15 m/s anomalies. Notice by day 10 it's in between -10 m/s and -5 m/s. The actual number is not as important as the change which shows the +QBO wave dropping down. Due to the thermal wind, there is basic warm air advection over the mid stratosphere. This in combination with the mid-November solar spike that jump started the warming and the subsidence wave over Indonesia reducing water vapor, has led to these impressive warm anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yeah you can't punt if you're in New England with this pattern. Of course we've seen better patterns but this one can still produce with the 6z GFS showing you how it's done on 12/16-17. Good swfe date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Good swfe date. 12z GFS today thinks so too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Guys as modeled (6z/12z gfs) is the coast gonna have a tuff time (bl issues) on the 12/16 storm or sufficient cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Guys as modeled (6z/12z gfs) is the coast gonna have a tuff time (bl issues) on the 12/16 storm or sufficient cold air Dude, just worry about getting a storm first. Boundary layer issues on the coast are inherent in December lol. I dont even bother getting worked up by that so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Pretty large spread with all model ensembles for 12/16 timeframe. A relatively low amplitude trof could ultimately favor the mid-Atl and slow to medium speed steering could produce a moderately long duration precipitation event for some areas. Low heights north of the border modeled by most guidance... suspect some of that comes south. It's good to see even the solutions that bring a low far to the northwest produce some frozen precip across the interior. Several of the GEFS members and a few CMC produce widespread accumulating snow across SNE... nice to see for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Pretty large spread with all model ensembles for 12/16 timeframe. A relatively low amplitude trof could ultimately favor the mid-Atl and slow to medium speed steering could produce a moderately long duration precipitation event for some areas. Low heights north of the border modeled by most guidance... suspect some of that comes south. It's good to see even the solutions that bring a low far to the northwest produce some frozen precip across the interior. Several of the GEFS members and a few CMC produce widespread accumulating snow across SNE... nice to see for a change. Nah, looks like December 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 ASOUT even a not cold pattern can deliver. Would prefer a colder air mass to the north for the coastal areas but we have some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Well, looks as though we punt December.....oh well. It's happened most of the past few seasons. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 GEFS are definitely interesting for 12/16-17...they've definitely been more faovrable looking than the Euro ensembles. I'd like to see the Euro come in with more ridging into Hudson Bay with better corresponding low heights to our northeast which is what helps anchor that high to the north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The Pacific retrogression idea is still a good one with a clear westward movement in the high anomaly over the N PAC between now and day 10. The smoothed ensembles present a "La Niña-east QBO / suppressed Aleutian High look" to the pattern then instead of something more poleward. In 10 days, I think the extreme subsidence over the west Pacific will end as the CHI wave comes around and reignites this Hadely Cell. I'm wondering if we can get a more extreme EPO response when this happens and not such a flat high. Between the stratosphere signaling a PV breakdown in January and the retrograding high (will this continue beyond the Aleutians or stay put?) in the N PAC, I'm thinking of going all JB on us for mid-winter. The 1946-47 analog also reaffirms this possibility, which has been a strong contender for the beginning of winter. thanks for this post funny JB comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Dude, just worry about getting a storm first. Boundary layer issues on the coast are inherent in December lol. I dont even bother getting worked up by that so early. I am so sick of getting shafted, though...I know its climo, but considering what has happened the past 2 YEARS...it will be tough not to lose it if ORH co gets a good event, and I am stuck with cat paws again. I mean, enough is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'd rather the EURO verify TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 ASOUT even a not cold pattern can deliver. Would prefer a colder air mass to the north for the coastal areas but we have some potential. I give up. What does ASOUT stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I give up. What does ASOUT stand for? As Some Of Us Thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I give up. What does ASOUT stand for? Lol as some of us thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Aaargh. Thanks for the clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Guys as modeled (6z/12z gfs) is the coast gonna have a tuff time (bl issues) on the 12/16 storm or sufficient cold air As modeled the only place that would have a lot of trouble is the Cape. A long duration east wind might also cut down or prevent accumulations along the immediate coast. But everyone else would eventually see mostly snow. Thicknesses are relatively low and 925mb temps are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Does anyone know if this storm will deliver snow or rain in inland nova scotia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Does anyone know if this storm will deliver snow or rain in inland nova scotia? "Will" No way to say at this point. Way too early, "Could" Most definitely, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Man at some of these analogs, 70,10,92 hike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Man at some of these analogs, 70,10,92 hike Where you pulling those maps from Ginxy? Great product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The CMC does not offer support for the GFS. In fact it looks to have moved away slightly. The models diverge in critical areas after day 3. The GFS has a shortwave move through south central Canada and just north of the Lakes by day 4. This blocks the southerly mid-level flow, forcing it east. By day 5 this feature is parked just north of New York State, effectively blocking any northward advancement of the upper level or surface features. The CMC has the same preceeding shorwave, but it is faster, weaker, and further north. So by day 5 it offers nothing to block the longwave flow from surging northward into Canada, sending a surface low well to our west. This is generally similar to recent Euro and CMC runs, and previous GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Where you pulling those maps from Ginxy? Great product. CPC analog pages , takes some digging but google cpc analogs edit use this linkhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Wills 92 fetish shows up again and so does 1970 NYE storm, signals taken out of this by me. Closed strong ULL cold pool with a good chance of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 CPC analog pages , takes some digging but google cpc analogs edit use this link http://www.cpc.ncep....el_guidance.php You're the man! Thanks much... mods, feel free to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The CMC does not offer support for the GFS. In fact it looks to have moved away slightly. The models diverge in critical areas after day 3. The GFS has a shortwave move through south central Canada and just north of the Lakes by day 4. This blocks the southerly mid-level flow, forcing it east. By day 5 this feature is parked just north of New York State, effectively blocking any northward advancement of the upper level or surface features. The CMC has the same preceeding shorwave, but it is faster, weaker, and further north. So by day 5 it offers nothing to block the longwave flow from surging northward into Canada, sending a surface low well to our west. This is generally similar to recent Euro and CMC runs, and previous GFS runs. that may be so bu the CMC has very little reliable ...less than the others, even for this time range in question. it looks NOTHING like it's 00z run. it's an unattended fire hose of a model beyond D4 or there abouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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