N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 They tend to stick together my post was referring to the entire 2.5 pages i just read and the entertainment jerry springer'ish nature since 11 am. The euro is running now and we needs to see the ridging in AK to keep the conus cold opporuntits, otherwise we will have our chances, where it rains for 12 hours and vim toot has feet of snow and mtns get the wx we should be getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The seems like the type of scenario in which we'd get a "subsume" dialogue out of Tip, complete with references to Feb, 1978. GGEM looks like a PD scenario ... Close lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The Pacific appears to be entering a state of pattern flux. It may be the recent emergence of a weak Phase 1 MJO that's helping to ignite a redistribution in the R-waves, but either way, all GEF derived products have the PNA rising fairly robustly to near neutral - something similar was 'cast by these clusters about 2 or 3 weeks ago, but than no sooner and the means wound up incorrect. The flat-line static -PNA of -1.0SD persisted right on through ... Barring that taking place again, the background resting state of the synoptic layout should be encouraged to change - with the EPO being negative and the PNA rising, at least an interval of western N/A positive geopotential heights would fit into expectations quite reasonably. Whether this parlays into storm/snow chance, who knows, but colder temperatures would be favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 From Tombo Philly forum - sub 1004 low over sw alabama...northern stream is diving in pretty good, hgts are responding to the deeping on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Can we start a thread for the Dec 27-28 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Can we start a thread for the Dec 27-28 storm? You want to start a thread for a storm 1 week out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks to me like it would be a torching cutter on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Can we start a thread for the Dec 27-28 storm? You want to start a thread for a storm 1 week out? Might as well. Better than creating a thread for day 10 threats, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yep, ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You want to start a thread for a storm 1 week out? It's hard to know where to go to for discussion, this thread.. banter.. SNE x-mas one.. If it's not populated much oh well, at least we know were to go if we are interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 ryan would need an umbrella and raft for killington thankfully it is waaay out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yep, ugly. But how does it compare to the last few EC runs? HPC dumped the 0z Euro and is going with the coastal handoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Lets see how many jump today. In case noone noticed euro shifted east another 100+ miles today. Ens will be cold and icy/ snowy as they have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We'll prob have precip type issues, but I don't think that the warm-cutter idea will pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We'll prob have precip type issues, but I don't think that the warm-cutter idea will pan out. Pickles is the only one that does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 All options are on the table. I don't favor a cutter right now, but Ptype issues are certainly possible, especially coast and srn areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 But how does it compare to the last few EC runs? HPC dumped the 0z Euro and is going with the coastal handoff The last 3 runs have been ugly, but gradually shifting east. My guess is the ensembles stay nearly steady or perhaps tuck east a tiny bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The last 3 runs have been ugly, but gradually shifting east. My guess is the ensembles stay nearly steady or perhaps tuck east a tiny bit. Sorry, meant to say east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 The last 3 runs have been ugly, but gradually shifting east. My guess is the ensembles stay nearly steady or perhaps tuck west a tiny bit. Yeah it was similar to last nigth's run. Yesterday's 12z run though was way west...over SW Michigan....a true lakes cutter. This has had the look of a messy event for a while to me now...but if the block comes in stronger like on a lot of other guidance, I could see this being more/mostly snow for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah it was similar to last nigth's run. Yesterday's 12z run though was way west...over SW Michigan....a true lakes cutter. This has had the look of a messy event for a while to me now...but if the block comes in stronger like on a lot of other guidance, I could see this being more/mostly snow for SNE. I would role with that as well with a "first guess." So many details to be ironed out and its 7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 SWFE overrunning look at D9 for good measure...though just clown range fodder at this time. We are at least beginning to see some colder air in our neck of the woods out in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The last 3 runs have been ugly, but gradually shifting east. My guess is the ensembles stay nearly steady or perhaps tuck east a tiny bit. That is what I thought. In my view this only increases the confidence in where HPC says this is headed. Unless there is suppression as it forms off the Delmarva, it would seem this one comes all the way up the coast and gives us all a nice storm. Ptype issues along the coast possibly but a warning level snow inland. We are now inside 7 days I believe. First storm I have felt reasonably confident about all year...hope that is not a jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 First storm I have felt reasonably confident about all year...hope that is not a jinx. I resemble that remark. Hey it looks a tad better every day, hope the trend continues, as long as we do not see a reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 JMA somewhat similar to the Euro but already redeveloping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 JMA somewhat similar to the Euro but already redeveloping That 1026 high due north in Quebec would keep it pretty cold in New England extrapolating out...even if MLs tried to warm more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That 1026 high due north in Quebec would keep it pretty cold in New England extrapolating out...even if MLs tried to warm more. That high is in a very good position as long as it is building in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 JMA somewhat similar to the Euro but already redeveloping This got me curious as to what the DGEX showed...it did not disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z ec ensemble mean travels from western Tennessee to Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This being the pattern thread, I thought I'd throw this up. Hello 1993! One of these years it will work out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This got me curious as to what the DGEX showed...it did not disappoint. was that passive aggressive? lol There is cold air to the north and a lot of moisture to be tapped, I think this one turns out well for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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