ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 The pattern is kind of a mess on the GFS leading up to the bigger storm...a lot of convoluted shortwaves up north. The longwave pattern still is definitely very favorable for some kind of storm in the eastern CONUS...whether it cuts or not is not very predictable at the moment. Guidance on the whole has trended further south that that block which is why more solutions in the past 12 hours have been redevelopers rather than pure cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 What d7 porn on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS is interesting. It brings the low to just south of SNE, with this QPF blob almost trying to pull the low east, with the now well developed secondary low still hanging tight near the coast thanks to a strong vortmax. It also tries to pull down a PV into Lake Superior. The Canadian has a similar setup, but that second PV was further east. The seems like the type of scenario in which we'd get a "subsume" dialogue out of Tip, complete with references to Feb, 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 What d7 porn on the GEFS. Pretty shakey for LL land and the south coast...but for most of SNE that is pretty awesome looking. Of course its 168 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 HPC on board in a big way on a redevelopment on the coast for the 27th. It looks like there is a pretty strong high north of Minn...does that bridge over and provide a cold high feed into the storm? I know sometimes in coastals their will be a high well to our nw that is able to build in. BTW I'm in Chicago today so I will get to experience brief near blizzard conditions this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Pretty shakey for LL land and the south coast...but for most of SNE that is pretty awesome looking. Of course its 168 hours out. Yeah..what a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Perfect track for Boston points n and w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The seems like the type of scenario in which we'd get a "subsume" dialogue out of Tip, complete with references to Feb, 1978. LOL, I posted it because it brought me back to how Will described the Canadian last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 12Z GFS brings back memories of Christmas 2002. LOL, I posted it because it brought me back to how Will described the Canadian last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 12Z GFS brings back memories of Christmas 2002. I initially thought that looking at the surface plots, but have a gander at the mid levels....its stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 What d7 porn on the GEFS. That's not very descriptive or giving any real specifics you know................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I initially thought that looking at the surface plots, but have a gander at the mid levels....its stacked. Go vertical or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 the individual members are all over the place... some have no storm at all and others bring rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That's not very descriptive or giving any real specifics you know................. Thats not accurate...its not a Hustler magazine. Its GFS model output depicting a 988mb low over Nantucket island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 the individual members are all over the place... some have no storm at all and others bring rain You must have an app on your smartphone that sounds an alarm everytime someone in sne smiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That is some awfully nice wx porn on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You must have an app on your smartphone that sounds an alarm everytime someone in sne smiles. ensemble means can be deceiving. you guys got burned by them last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 ensemble means can be deceiving. you guys got burned by them last week Dude, if a day 7 ensemble mean burns anyone, then they were already burnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 ensemble means can be deceiving. you guys got burned by them last week And there has been many times they were right as well, This far out that's really all you should monitor anyways, Just hope they improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You must have an app on your smartphone that sounds an alarm everytime someone in sne smiles. mods continually let him get away with it because if his black ops status. You can send PM's to admin and they don't even reply back to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 mods continually let him get away with it because if his black ops status. You can send PM's to admin and they don't even reply back to you Well, he's right, but I'm not sure who didn't expect a day 7 ens plot to have more spread than njwxscan's legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 So going forward, it's tough to always remember not to get too excited, but I think all guidance at the very least have a decent look to the whole hemispheric pattern with what appears to be colder air and storm chances thrown in. Really, that's all you can ask. The ridging into AK starts to connect over the N pole and towards the other side of the pole into Russia. This helps bring the PV on our side of the pole further south and therefore, helps with bringing colder air into the CONUS. Both the GEFS and EC also show very weak ridging into Greenland, but again, this tries to reinforce the idea of keeping colder air moving southward towards the CONUS. What could go wrong? Well the ridging into AK is key so if that decides to go poof, then so will our colder air, but this ridging could be the start of the 50mb warming we are seeing moving east. http://www.cpc.ncep....emp50anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You must have an app on your smartphone that sounds an alarm everytime someone in sne smiles. lol no ****.. he has an obsession over SNE not getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 lol no ****.. he has an obsession over SNE not getting snow. Actually, he's kind of like the opposite of CT Blizz. He's only capable of pointing out way in which SNE won't get snow, and he uses logic in doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 lol They tend to stick together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You can send PM's to admin and they don't even reply back to you Welcome to AmWx, I see you're new here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Actually, he's kind of like the opposite of CT Blizz. He's only capable of pointing out way in which SNE won't get snow, and he uses logic in doing so. OK, so they are both obsessed about opposite things. cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 OK, so they are both obsessed about opposite things. cool. And we are stuck with both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That is some awfully nice wx porn on the GFS GGEM looks like a PD scenario ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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