CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Right when it matters, The truncation strikes.............lol Well beforehand there is a good secondary transfer so it may be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well beforehand there is a good secondary transfer so it may be legit. Time to jump up and down? I mean, we had a few noose tying posts over an 18z GFS 144 hour threat for 1-3" going south...that means we can post a bunch of posts over this big snowstorm at 192 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 FWIW, the GEFS at 18z were definitely colder and more wintry looking than the 12z GEFS. Not that run to run consistency is going to be found at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Time to jump up and down? I mean, we had a few noose tying posts over an 18z GFS 144 hour threat for 1-3" going south...that means we can post a bunch of posts over this big snowstorm at 192 hours? If a 300hr cutter can be talked About as gospel, why not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 If a 300hr cutter can be talked About as gospel, why not! Eduggs will not apruv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Weenies getting to ORH and Coastal...smack down time is coming up Hopefully for everyone's sanity a real threat is able to get inside of 120 hours. Keep talking 144-192 will drive people to post stupid things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Weenies getting to ORH and Coastal...smack down time is coming up Sleep deprivation catching up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Sleep deprivation catching up It will never ever snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Weenies getting to ORH and Coastal...smack down time is coming up Hopefully for everyone's sanity a real threat is able to get inside of 120 hours. Keep talking 144-192 will drive people to post stupid things. I don't think I've ever seen people actually go crazy over OP solutions more than 5 days out so often as I have seen this winter. I've always regarded the New England posters as very knowledgable and pretty good when it comes to storm threats, but this winter has certainly not been the best showing so far on that front. We just had a system where the ECMWF ensemble mean was showing a big snow event 120 hours out....which obviously didn't turn out correct....but yet we have nooses being tied over OP runs even further out than that. A majority of our snow events are not shown as snow events wire to wire from a week out. Its a very real possiblity we don't get a good snow event before January, but I would hope that people use some better judgement on the reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't think I've ever seen people actually go crazy over OP solutions more than 5 days out so often as I have seen this winter. I've always regarded the New England posters as very knowledgable and pretty good when it comes to storm threats, but this winter has certainly not been the best showing so far on that front. We just had a system where the ECMWF ensemble mean was showing a big snow event 120 hours out....which obviously didn't turn out correct....but yet we have nooses being tied over OP runs even further out than that. A majority of our snow events are not shown as snow events wire to wire from a week out. Its a very real possiblity we don't get a good snow event before January, but I would hope that people use some better judgement on the reasoning. I completely agree. I honestly haven't looked at much past Xmas as I'm more focused on the potential for an upslope event at the ski area this weekend, but I would be worried if models were showing a snowstorm in the day 7-10 range because the chances of that verifying have to be in the 1-5% range. Like you said, we never have snowstorms modeled wire to wire from that time frame. All you can do is lay out some possibilities with forecasted anomalies, and you and Coastal do a great job doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, at least it gets cold for a few days after Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Time to jump up and down? I mean, we had a few noose tying posts over an 18z GFS 144 hour threat for 1-3" going south...that means we can post a bunch of posts over this big snowstorm at 192 hours? It's pretty simple. We jump up and down when any one of these modeled storms works out and comes in colder for 42N and points south and actually produces snow. It's totally expected that we'll have a few runs of glamorous snow. If in 2-3 days we're not looking at a cutter and we're still looking at the Manhattan Transfer offshore, we can get excited. For the most part modeled storms ARE occurring even at huge range. They just aren't working out for the colder. Go back and look at the longer GFS runs for the last few weeks. For the most part they've had a decent handle on the overall storm theme/days plus or minus a few days. There are a couple of major differences with each subsequent storm, the late 27th one looks quite a bit cooler to start as previously modeled. The OP runs haven't been that bad in general. They've largely been warm and wet with most of these storms which for the majority of us has been absolutely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Blocking remains robust on the GFS for th e12/27 system. Another redeveloper on this run. It will be interesting to see how the Euro ensembles deal with the blocking..esp over the next few days. As I mentioned earlier, the GFS/GEFS blocking is a bit more "real" or "effective" (as HM would say) than the Euro block...but it really wouldn't take that huge of a trend to make them the same. Esp given we are a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ugh, this is gonna fire up the weenies lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Blocking remains robust on the GFS for th e12/27 system. Another redeveloper on this run. It will be interesting to see how the Euro ensembles deal with the blocking..esp over the next few days. As I mentioned earlier, the GFS/GEFS blocking is a bit more "real" or "effective" (as HM would say) than the Euro block...but it really wouldn't take that huge of a trend to make them the same. Esp given we are a week out. It's defitnely not a bootleg block with even transient, but some confluence to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I would take a brown christmas for that storm lol Ugh, this is gonna fire up the weenies lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 GGEM is a redeveloping bomb as well. Does it in a different fashion than the GFS with the block though...it actually drops the block south. GEFS BTW are pretty good looking. But a reminder that we are an eternity out right now...plus a few days more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GGEM is a redeveloping bomb as well. Does it in a different fashion than the GFS with the block though...it actually drops the block south. GEFS BTW are pretty good looking. But a reminder that we are an eternity out right now...plus a few days more. That last sentence can't be stressed enough. I'm gonna hire an airplane to fly around Tolland and spell out those words in the sky, all day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 That last sentence can't be stressed enough. I'm gonna hire an airplane to fly around Tolland and spell out those words in the sky, all day tomorrow. Also to those people who will post "SEE, the GFS has a cutter now at 12Z...we are screwed until January!!!!!lwjwei1!!!" Regardless, both model suites (GGEM and GEFS/GFS) have the block playing a larger role in the storm which is what we are hoping for as we get near verification....force this thing to redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Also to those people who will post "SEE, the GFS has a cutter now at 12Z...we are screwed until January!!!!!lwjwei1!!!" Regardless, both model suites (GGEM and GEFS/GFS) have the block playing a larger role in the storm which is what we are hoping for as we get near verification....force this thing to redevelop. I will say it is nice to see an actual block and an airmass that can make things happen. That lobe of cold to the north of Maine is a good cold source region and some confluence too. Dammit being that far away lol. At least we can say there is definitely some potential here, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS has been trending towards a transfer to the coast type system all along, as has the Euro. Both started with lakes bombs, but trended away from that as they began to strengthen the confluence to the north of us and establish a better 50/50. We will have plenty of cold air to deal with, remember after the cutter coming up on friday, there is going to be a solid push of arctic air into the region, which will stick around until the storm, so the bl should be ok if we get a good track. The question then becomes when/where does the potential transfer take place and how fast does the coastal take over. Ideally we want this further to the south for a PDII like scenario, but, again, that depends on the pattern in Southern Ontario/Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Keep it in your pants..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 With the MJO going into phase 1 and the 5-7 day lag for MJO induced waves to traverse the eastern US it would set us up for a wave to arrive in the east between Dec. 18-20 which is progged on the 180hr GFS and Euro moving across the upper Midwest or Great Lakes. The same wave also ushers in relatively "colder" air and plays nicely into the idea I spoke of the other day in my post about the pocket of relatively "colder" air arriving during the Dec. 21-23 time frame based off of GWO analogs for the eastern US.Using that same concept for the GWO I expect another batch of colder air Dec. 27-30. And Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3. I don't know if this wave was directly attributable to the MJO since some raise valid arguments that this wasn't a true MJO signal in the phase 1 region but we have our wave moving through the GLKS as discussed on Dec. 13 and temps for example in Detroit will be dropping from the upper 40's Thursday-Dec. 20 down to highs in the mid 30's for Dec. 23. GFS and Euro both hinting at another wave moving through the GLKS Dec. 27-28 which would allow colder air to settle into the region for Dec. 28 by current models. Models indicate another pocket of cold air arriving to reinforce the prior batch with a short wave Jan 2-3 across the Eastern US which falls into the Dec. 30-Jan 3 date I laid out previously. The Euro and GFS both give credence to this time frame with a shortwave modeled off the coast of CA for 0z Dec. 30 giving it 4-5 days for it make it out into the Plains to the GLKS/EC. Although the GFS has been wavering in the magnitude of the cold air for this time frame, which I was expecting to be some of the coldest of the season guessing along the lines of -15C to -20C 850mb over southern Michigan and eastward. So the GFS is still not modeling that type of air mass as of right now I will leave that TBD as we get closer. With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another spell of colder air Jan 5-8. I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The Euro definitely is not as block happy as the GEFS. The ensembles definitely are more wintry than the op which refuses to let go of the idea of cuttign west. The ensembles bring the low over cape Cod. Here you can see the difference. Notice how the block in ern Canada is stronger on the GEFS, and check out the confluence north of maine. Notice on the EC ensembles which are on the bottom....we have no real confluence and a weaker block. The confluence is key for helping this not cut west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Nice to have a lock in now of coastal secondary locking in snow/ice appeal.We tried telling the "every storm will head for the lakes this winter" crew yesterday, but they didn't want to listen. Just wish it was Wed morning next week already..Snow OTG from the Xmas Eve storm, looking at a 6-12+ type storm coming that night. We're almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Any real prospect of this Christmas eve thing giving a little accumulation I wonder... I haven't looked at the Euro regarding that. Otherwise I have to hope some LES bands can get here to give me a minimal white Christmas. Nice to have a lock in now of coastal secondary locking in snow/ice appeal.We tried telling the "every storm will head for the lakes this winter" crew yesterday, but they didn't want to listen. Just wish it was Wed morning next week already..Snow OTG from the Xmas Eve storm, looking at a 6-12+ type storm coming that night. We're almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 6Z GFS does have a small snowfall in CT for Xmas. Any real prospect of this Christmas eve thing giving a little accumulation I wonder... I haven't looked at the Euro regarding that. Otherwise I have to hope some LES bands can get here to give me a minimal white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 i know its fantasy land but at least a smile was brought to my face this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS is interesting. It brings the low to just south of SNE, with this QPF blob almost trying to pull the low east, with the now well developed secondary low still hanging tight near the coast thanks to a strong vortmax. It also tries to pull down a PV into Lake Superior. The Canadian has a similar setup, but that second PV was further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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