CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 What you have here is above normal heights to begin with across Canada so that when you get some ridge from a Mid Latitude Wave, the anomaly charts appear to look amazing. This is a case where you actually have to look at the means and the anomalies. If you just look at the h5 anomalies, you'd think 2009 or 2010 was on the way or something. In reality, the Arctic Heights took a hike back to Asia and we are left with generally above normal heights throughout Canada, so any small ridge will appear like a huge block on anomaly charts. The thing about "models not realizing the strength of the 50-50 low and block" is usually when there is a strong cold air source / suppressive high / polar vortex. The situation after Christmas is another hybrid, bootleg scenario that could possibly benefit the interior and portions of New England. Even we could see a snow to rain but I'm about 50, 50 myself on that one. This is NOT a classic 50-50 low / -NAO setup; otherwise, I'd be on board with DT. Yeah I agree. I suppose it could be more of a SWFE for us with that set up, but for now...I'm sort of meh about it with it being so far out. It would be nice for that to come through, however. I know I could use a little. There are some signs of the block trying to help force it out under last minute, but then you risk already flooding the atmosphere aloft with more marine air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 one things for sure, lack of moisture will not be an issue with the day10 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 one things for sure, lack of moisture will not be an issue with the day10 system. The dry pattern is over. We've definitely entered a stormy pattern. That is a good thing to have...you keep that going in late December into January...climo will catch up with temps a little bit and probably give some good events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yeah I agree. I suppose it could be more of a SWFE for us with that set up, but for now...I'm sort of meh about it with it being so far out. It would be nice for that to come through, however. I know I could use a little. There are some signs of the block trying to help force it out under last minute, but then you risk already flooding the atmosphere aloft with more marine air. Where we are in the global AAM budget and tropical forcing is similar to around mid October or so (our last really strong +EPO period). This is a very promising time to be in with extreme -AAM tendency going on in the Tropical Regions (this was a possible Hadley Cell feedback from West Pac/Asia I was talking about and warm equatorial stratospheric temperatures). These anomalies will propagate poleward along with a strong 30mb wave 1 between Christmas and New Years. Both will help cool the equatorial temperatures and get the EPO negative. Starting to look very promising as we move into the New Year and the possibility of a snowstorm is growing 1/5-1/10. This is my 1 positive post of the day (haha). I'll revisit this in the coming days. For now, it's speculative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Nice post HM and I agree as well. It's easy to get caught up in the bright red colors on the model height anomalies but when push comes to shove if there's not a physical blocking ridge there it doesn't do you much good at all. This retrogression of above normal heights into Central Canada has been as bootleg as they come. But the ridge splitting from the PAC into Alaska is good and I think the changes will start to manifest themselves in the form of shots of colder air and a rapidly shifting pacific by the last few days of Dec into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I don't trust the GGEM. But I think the large Canadian ULL and confluence zone underneath is closer to what we like to see keep 26-27th storm from cutting too far west: http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What you have here is above normal heights to begin with across Canada so that when you get some ridge from a Mid Latitude Wave, the anomaly charts appear to look amazing. This is a case where you actually have to look at the means and the anomalies. If you just look at the h5 anomalies, you'd think 2009 or 2010 was on the way or something. In reality, the Arctic Heights took a hike back to Asia and we are left with generally above normal heights throughout Canada, so any small ridge will appear like a huge block on anomaly charts. The thing about "models not realizing the strength of the 50-50 low and block" is usually when there is a strong cold air source / suppressive high / polar vortex. The situation after Christmas is another hybrid, bootleg scenario that could possibly benefit the interior and portions of New England. Even we could see a snow to rain but I'm about 50, 50 myself on that one. This is NOT a classic 50-50 low / -NAO setup; otherwise, I'd be on board with DT. Thanks for the explanation..For a time I was thinking that this may be more of a legitimate blocking setup this go around after this week's system forms into a 50/50..I was mistaken though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 This has been a good example of why the AO isn't always everything. Despite the nrn hemispheric AO signal being negative, we have had low height anomalies near AK and into wrn Canada causing milder flow across a large part of the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What a nightmare gfs run, hopefully its wrong but its trended further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 The GFS has a pretty legit Baffin Island block during the 12/27 threat...its not just a fake high heights there as it joins the ridging from the 12/21 storm with the block that migrates east from N of AK. The Euro isn't quite as good as it shoves evrything further north toward northern Greeland which gives room for higher heights to build ahead of the system in SE Canada. It would be nicer if they teleconnected more directly to a North Atlantic ridge as this would hold in a 50/50 type low better. But I won't be shocked if that 12/27 system ends up pretty nasty in the interior with a lot of frozen if we can get that thing to come in a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The GFS has a pretty legit Baffin Island block during the 12/27 threat...its not just a fake high heights there as it joins the ridging from the 12/21 storm with the block that migrates east from N of AK. The Euro isn't quite as good as it shoves evrything further north toward northern Greeland which gives room for higher heights to build ahead of the system in SE Canada. It would be nicer if they teleconnected more directly to a North Atlantic ridge as this would hold in a 50/50 type low better. But I won't be shocked if that 12/27 system ends up pretty nasty in the interior with a lot of frozen if we can get that thing to come in a bit stronger. Yup . It's this week shifted 200 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yup . It's this week shifted 200 miles south If that's the case, then 12"+ for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 If that's the case, then 12"+ for all. As long as it screws Springfield Nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 i hope the Emass Cplain can score on xmas eve, besides that i don't see much hope for the coast, and as far as the S coast goes, tie the rope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Thanks for the explanation..For a time I was thinking that this may be more of a legitimate blocking setup this go around after this week's system forms into a 50/50..I was mistaken though. Well, it still is blocking in a good location, so maybe the correct word isn't legitimate as much as it's "effective." Even as the N PAC block forms and pinches off into the north pole, the Arctic Air retreats westward toward Alaska. The air simply isn't cold INVOF the blocking setup. Also, conditions appear pretty ripe for wave amplification along the lee-Rockies so you are going to need an equally strong force to block its developing downstream ridge. Now, if this wave trends weaker for some crummy reason with s/w timing or whatever, then suddenly much of New England becomes a snowstorm. I still don't think it's quite the right setup for coastal CT-NYC-NJ yet. But if you are looking to see anything at this point, then of course the upcoming stormy pattern is a good one. This same news I'm spouting off as "bad" is actually great news for northern guys and the Midwest, who wouldn't see see heavy snow with a very effective -NAO block. This is one of the reasons why a while back I said that the anomaly placements were suggesting near-historic snowfall potential in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 fwiw...gefs develop a secondary and have a low along the jersey shore after xmas (27th storm) and move it into the GOM across E SNE - kind of illustrates the idea that a cutter isn't a slam dunk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 HM any thoughts on the xmas eve "miracle" for SNE on the 12z gfs. i.e odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Verbatim, the GEFS are probably an active type of solution, but the cold remain so bootleg in Canada. It's probably fine for the interior, but personally I would not mind it being colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm so sick of ice and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Here are the GEFS and a reason why we say it's jsut too early to figure out. As you can see, we have a variety from whiffs, to wintry precip, to a quick change to rain. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro ensembles FWIW aren't very different from 00z except for minor details. Still a snow to wintry mix in the interior, especially far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm so sick of ice and rain. I'm so sick of rain... and my ridiculously crowded morning commute on the E train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 fwiw Wxrisk.com ***ALERT *** 12z wed A afternoon run of the European ensemble Model is WAAAAAY EAST of the 12z operational or regular European Model ( which has the Low near Chicago). 12z ECMWF ensemble mean Has 2ndary LOW off the southeast VA coast on morning of DEC 27 with the 0 degree ISOTHERM at 850 MB (rain snow line) ROA to DCA to RDG to ABE to POU to PVD... BOS mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Not a shock to some of us. But there's a every low this winter is headed for the Lakes crew on here who are dumb founded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Maybe its me but Euro ENS and GEFS look pretty good for the 27th and on. Big move towards the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The low goes over SNE on the ensembles, so the mostly snow in SNE is probably not correct, verbatim. Not that it means much this far out, but DT weenied out a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 The low goes over SNE on the ensembles, so the mostly snow in SNE is probably not correct, verbatim. Not that it means much this far out, but DT weenied out a little. The way you described it seemed pretty good...its a snow to ice/wintry mix in the interior type storm on the Euro ensembles. Prob snow to rain on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Don't look now but 18Z GFS has major secondary transfer with juicy CCB for all of SNE. Rain to snow at the coast verbatim, all snow Kevlar north. Yes, I'm a modelologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Weenies rejoice on GFS truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Weenies rejoice on GFS truncation. Right when it matters, The truncation strikes.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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