weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Modelling slowly moving twds a snowstorm Dec26-27 Also fairly good timing with 1993 progress. First big snow was 12/28. Till then it was minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Also fairly good timing with 1993 progress. First big snow was 12/28. Till then it was minimal. From what i read euro ens agree on that timeframe for snow. We're at about 7 days now..so not la la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 From what i read euro ens agree on that timeframe for snow. We're at about 7 days now..so not la la land At the very least, there is widespread agreement that starting this weekend we're in a much colder regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 A touch of snow Friday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 A touch of snow Friday night? Seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Touch my weenie Friday night? No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 While I respect DT's opinion, how many times do we go through this where we say a system cant cut into the lakes because an NAO block is in place? His philosophy is that the models are breaking down the -NAO rex block that forms around days 4-5 too quickly, and the day after Christmas storm has to track further east than models show. I think further east is reasonable, but not one to produce a major east coast snow which he is stating. I could role with an Ohio valley tracker, redevelopment over maryland/NJ type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 44/42 at least the grass is green Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I was just curious so I looked and once again I was honestly surprised, but after 2 years I really should not have been. Sultginxys 2 day winter assault (lol at those that punted december) ice~a~thon bos +3 +7 +4.1 dec bdl+3 +3 +3.4 dec pvd+1 +7 +4.5 dec orh-1 +2 +5.4 dec monster departures today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 While I respect DT's opinion, how many times do we go through this where we say a system cant cut into the lakes because an NAO block is in place? His philosophy is that the models are breaking down the -NAO rex block that forms around days 4-5 too quickly, and the day after Christmas storm has to track further east than models show. I think further east is reasonable, but not one to produce a major east coast snow which he is stating. I could role with an Ohio valley tracker, redevelopment over maryland/NJ type deal. Works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The 27th could still easily be a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The 27th could still easily be a lot of rain. Go back to nursing Bryce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The 27th could still easily be a lot of rain. its the 26th. But how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Works for me. Thats my optomistic case...this below though The 27th could still easily be a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Thats my optomistic case...this below though Hmmmmm....who can you nurse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Go back to nursing Bryce. LOL well as modeled it's a SWFE type deal, but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Hmmmmm....who can you nurse? I'm a long way from having a child Jerry I'll tell you that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 its the 26th. But how? The block weakens and there isn't a huge reason for it to be all snow. I do see signs it could be a SWFE deal so let's hope, I'm just not sold on that 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It looks like a coastal re developer to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Today is a bottom 10 day. Funny, I was just thinking that about today. I would rather have anything than rain and 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The block weakens and there isn't a huge reason for it to be all snow. I do see signs it could be a SWFE deal so let's hope, I'm just not sold on that 100%. The models often break down blocks too quickly. But I'm concerned with how quickly the 50/50 low or the big ULL slides out to east. That may allow it come pretty far west, before a secondary low takes over. The 0z Euro ensemble and 6z GEFS, suggest this now. The best snow setups with a -PNA, seem to be with a vortex remaining underneath the -NAO block longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The models often break down blocks too quickly. But I'm concerned with how quickly the 50/50 low or the big ULL slides out to east. That may allow it come pretty far west, before a secondary low takes over. The 0z Euro ensemble and 6z GEFS, suggest this now. The best snow setups with a -PNA, seem to be with a vortex remaining underneath the -NAO block longer. Right you made my point. Part of a block is confluence which is minimal. It still could be a SWFE for us, but there is a lot if time left for it to look worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Right you made my point. Part of a block is confluence which is minimal. It still could be a SWFE for us, but there is a lot if time left for it to look worse. Or even better than it does now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Or even better than it does now LOL now I know what I'll use my birthday wish on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Happy Birthday!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looks like snow to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 While I respect DT's opinion, how many times do we go through this where we say a system cant cut into the lakes because an NAO block is in place? His philosophy is that the models are breaking down the -NAO rex block that forms around days 4-5 too quickly, and the day after Christmas storm has to track further east than models show. I think further east is reasonable, but not one to produce a major east coast snow which he is stating. I could role with an Ohio valley tracker, redevelopment over maryland/NJ type deal. What you have here is above normal heights to begin with across Canada so that when you get some ridge from a Mid Latitude Wave, the anomaly charts appear to look amazing. This is a case where you actually have to look at the means and the anomalies. If you just look at the h5 anomalies, you'd think 2009 or 2010 was on the way or something. In reality, the Arctic Heights took a hike back to Asia and we are left with generally above normal heights throughout Canada, so any small ridge will appear like a huge block on anomaly charts. The thing about "models not realizing the strength of the 50-50 low and block" is usually when there is a strong cold air source / suppressive high / polar vortex. The situation after Christmas is another hybrid, bootleg scenario that could possibly benefit the interior and portions of New England. Even we could see a snow to rain but I'm about 50, 50 myself on that one. This is NOT a classic 50-50 low / -NAO setup; otherwise, I'd be on board with DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Dt storm has no chance. It amplifies wayyyy to far west. would need a feb 5 2010 vortex to suppress that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Dt storm has no chance. It amplifies wayyyy to far west. would need a feb 5 2010 vortex to suppress that one. I think our best chance is for the low to cut so far west towards MIN/ND, allowing the cold air to stay in place longer around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If you get wintry weather before the EPO dislodges cold air for us, consider it a gift. I've already punted December down this way a long time ago, so I'm not too concerned. Really, I'm pleasantly surprised by the lack of a torch being modeled, given the circumstances. If the PV did this last year, it would have meant 70s. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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