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Pattern Discussion 12/15 and beyond

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

LOL

I wonder if we were just beginning or in the process of peaking our -QBO wave if things would have been different in the Pacific. The advection would have been cold and the 50-10mb layer would have been a lot cooler than it is now over the equatorial regions, possibly helping the MJO activity.

Then again, the weak El Niño crapping out was the biggest disappointment. So far, the statistic of "neutral ENSO having the most MJO activity" is taking a shot. Also, Cohen's connection to our DJF temperatures currently is taking a shot but the raw AO index is not.

Edit: BTW I'm only taking a shot at Cohen because he completely dismissed the Pacific in his interview and research saying that these things do not correlate as strongly as the AO. Well, okay Cohen, but they do correlate and they do have a causal relationship. I think this December shows that perfectly. He still has the rest of the winter to get the correlation he needs.

This makes me :lol: because 10 years ago I sat in a conference room with Cohen and some others at AER and made the case for heavily weighing the state of the Pac NW in the DJF temp forecast. They didn't dismiss it out of hand, and I'm sure my presentation lacked the meteorological maturity to make a solid case. But since my departure it seems it never took a solid foothold, as even in his interview this year with CWG he still seemed a bit dismissive of it.

Despite apparent correlations with Dec. AO state, it's my belief the Oct. snowcover mechanism (ie. EP wave flux->strat warming -> propagation back to troposphere) is typically only valid after the New Year, and sometimes 1-2 weeks later even. Most paying customers are interested in DJF obviously, but IMO the snow signal only lasts about 45 days.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

This makes me :lol: because 10 years ago I sat in a conference room with Cohen and some others at AER and made the case for heavily weighing the state of the Pac NW in the DJF temp forecast. They didn't dismiss it out of hand, and I'm sure my presentation lacked the meteorological maturity to make a solid case. But since my departure it seems it never took a solid foothold, as even in his interview this year with CWG he still seemed a bit dismissive of it.

Despite apparent correlations with Dec. AO state, it's my belief the Oct. snowcover mechanism (ie. EP wave flux->strat warming -> propagation back to troposphere) is typically only valid after the New Year, and sometimes 1-2 weeks later even. Most paying customers are interested in DJF obviously, but IMO the snow signal only lasts about 45 days.

That's awesome. First of all, I wouldn't be making any type of dismissive statement if my dataset was relatively new and didn't have the extensiveness of, let's say, the PDO e.g. Perhaps a .6 isn't as cool looking but the PDO spans many years. Really, Cohen's research doesn't explain the variance as well as a reader may think so.

I agree 100% with your last paragraph and that thought is in the data too if you look deep enough. The correlation works best in January/mid-winter.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

What are your thoughts on light snow this weekend?

Well it's all dependent on how far south the ULL is, and then you need to time a dumbelling s/w just right to blossom light snows. The GFS actually tries to have a very weak clipper pass well south. I suppose you can't rule out some snow showers, however I'm not big on accumulation right now. That's not to say it can't change...I'm just not excited about it.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

LOL

I wonder if we were just beginning or in the process of peaking our -QBO wave if things would have been different in the Pacific. The advection would have been cold and the 50-10mb layer would have been a lot cooler than it is now over the equatorial regions, possibly helping the MJO activity.

Then again, the weak El Niño crapping out was the biggest disappointment. So far, the statistic of "neutral ENSO having the most MJO activity" is taking a shot. Also, Cohen's connection to our DJF temperatures currently is taking a shot but the raw AO index is not.

Edit: BTW I'm only taking a shot at Cohen because he completely dismissed the Pacific in his interview and research saying that these things do not correlate as strongly as the AO. Well, okay Cohen, but they do correlate and they do have a causal relationship. I think this December shows that perfectly. He still has the rest of the winter to get the correlation he needs.

Yeah I'm with you on the Cohen stuff. We know well that the -AO cant get everywhere in the mid-latitudes cold, and someone misses out. The pacific regime has made its statement early on this winter that we are indeed missing out. so you cant take one index and run with it, even when its as strong an sai signal as this was this year. 97-98 was a very strong SAI signal as well, 3rd or 4th out of the data set. The AO responded for that winter, but the El Nino was so overpowering it didnt matter. I know we did not have a strong enso signal to work off of this fall, but with the strong -pdo, this should have been a cause for caution as far as persistent/more extreme eastern cold goes. That can change in the 2nd half as you pointed out, and a much better chance of that happening this year than a 97-98 type deal (going strictly off of the pacific).

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

Interestingly, there has been an overall sharp cooling recently (still ongoing) with the strongest anomalies in the 10-5mb layer. This is in response to the oncoming +QBO in this layer but also the recent proton / geomag activity.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ALL_EQ_2012.gif

http://www.solarham.net/proton.htm (time sensitive)

Good news is that these warmings are "bottom-up" and it looks like a good one is coming just after xmas.

Well what about our "top-down" warming that has begun from the asian sector and is projected to really warm up 10mb in the coming days?

Or am i mis-interpreting this as top-down? I don't see the warm anomalies at 50mb over asia prior to the 10mb warming so I figured it was top-down

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Well what about our "top-down" warming that has begun from the asian sector and is projected to really warm up 10mb in the coming days?

Or am i mis-interpreting this as top-down? I don't see the warm anomalies at 50mb over asia prior to the 10mb warming so I figured it was top-down

I was wondering the same, but I think he meant it was caused by "bottom-up" waves? We actually have below normal heights under the tropopause where the warming is above it.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

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I was wondering the same, but I think he meant it was caused by "bottom-up" waves? We actually have below normal heights under the tropopause where the warming is above it.

okay yeah I take it we typically get all of these bottom-up waves early on in the winter, that can then possibly feedback to a top-down response/potential breakdown during the mid-winter period...Though I do not recall what lead to the top-down event last winter, I only seem to remember a brutally cold vortex all first part of winter (there was a burp in mid-dec when the AO hit neutral for a day, but I don't take it that would be enough to trigger a mid-winter event like we saw).

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

okay yeah I take it we typically get all of these bottom-up waves early on in the winter, that can then possibly feedback to a top-down response/potential breakdown during the mid-winter period...Though I do not recall what lead to the top-down event last winter, I only seem to remember a brutally cold vortex all first part of winter (there was a burp in mid-dec when the AO hit neutral for a day, but I don't take it that would be enough to trigger a mid-winter event like we saw).

Yeah just my guess, I certainly may be wrong. All I know is that while it doesn't guarantee anything, it is certainly someone I want on my side. In th FU Berlin site, it's down to 100mb too.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

You know people are in the dumps when in the "pattern analysis" thread there isn't a single post that deals with either 00z or 06z model runs......

It's the darkness.

Pattern doesn't look bad and the AK lower than normal heights are flushed now by d3-4 which appear to lead to n - EPO by next week and beyond. That is critical for delivery of severe cold. Honestly the pattern and timing of such is not that much different vs December 1993....and at this point then December was warm with little snow. By spring we looked back at a winter for the ages.

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