DavisStraight Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Pretty big dead ratter on the op runs tonight. I'm starting to get the feeling that the PNA won't let us get cold. Maybe a touch here but I'm starting to lose faith that we'll be able to switch without a meaningful PNA. Its been frustrating but Don S, who has been spot on since Ive followed him thinks January will be pretty good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It was more to those who are "sick and tired" as they say, of talking long range. Who cares what they think. Many ( myself included ) have enjoyed the discussion by you and others.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Am I crazy to think that this is just a slow step down process, and that we are getting there? This week is progress in getting some storms and signs of cold air building to our NW. Eventually we get there and will have a stretch of real winter. Sometimes our expectations are so high that when we don't get there quickly we assume we are snake bit. I think the big picture says we get there, and I think that persistence may mean that once we get there, we stay there for a while. A snow pack will do us wonders in producing cold air and forcing the gradient south. Don Sutherland is comforting in these trying times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 What happened to the wintry appeal that Phil and Ryan were discussing as possible for the Friday system? Did we lose that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Am I crazy to think that this is just a slow step down process, and that we are getting there? This week is progress in getting some storms and signs of cold air building to our NW. Eventually we get there and will have a stretch of real winter. Sometimes our expectations are so high that when we don't get there quickly we assume we are snake bit. I think the big picture says we get there, and I think that persistence may mean that once we get there, we stay there for a while. A snow pack will do us wonders in producing cold air and forcing the gradient south. Don Sutherland is comforting in these trying times... You echo my feelings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Its been frustrating but Don S, who has been spot on since Ive followed him thinks January will be pretty good for us. I'm punting December, but whole heartedly believe in January......many great winters have had lame Decembers. Especially here on the cp....the season doesn't even really start climowise until after xmas. I'm hoping for an inverted miracle on xmas eve....just an inch or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I don't see a reason to punt until early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I don't see a reason to punt until early January. Scott, are your wife and son ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Scott, are your wife and son ok? Bryce is fine, she is ok..just a few issues to deal with, but I have a full plate..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Bryce is fine, she is ok..just a few issues to deal with, but I have a full plate..lol. Hang in there....Bryce will get to wear a snow suit hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Bryce is fine, she is ok..just a few issues to deal with, but I have a full plate..lol. Good to hear, if you need anything let us know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 GFS looks pretty cold after 12/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 GFS looks pretty cold after 12/21 With a 12 hour warmup as a cutter blasts in some rain before exiting and leaving us in the freezer again. Cool beans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Cmc and gfs are similar out to d8. Cold for real after this week. Delayed but not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Here's to hoping the GFS idea of building a ridge from AK and splitting it off towards Central Canada is correct. That's a game changer. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 FWIW the 12z JMA goes towards EURO & closes the low off way farther south compared to GFS. I wonder if this trend will continue and we get redevelopment farther south. Maybe some backlash snowshowers? Can't tell how much precip would fall after this frame since the JMA graphics suck... Looks like a huge hit for NNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Hostility. Bad vibes. More annoyance, than enjoyment. I have tried to stay quiet. The complaining about the terrible posting can sometimes make it only worse but Things have gotten pretty sad in here at times. Can't fault moderators. Going from a community to something negative. I hope the pathetic predictable insufferably ignorant posts from some regulars can change. Still a lot of good people in here, hope it changes. Not sure what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 AKZ222-170700- MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY- INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER... NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP 623 AM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012 .TODAY...CLEAR AND COLD WITH PATCHY ICE FOG. HIGHS 27 TO 37 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COLD WITH PATCHY ICE FOG. LOWS 35 TO 45 BELOW...EXCEPT AROUND 20 BELOW ON THE HILLS. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY ICE FOG. HIGHS 20 TO 30 BELOW... EXCEPT AROUND 5 BELOW ON THE HILLS. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS. FLURRIES. LOWS 20 TO 30 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. FLURRIES. HIGHS 10 TO 20 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20 BELOW. .WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 15 BELOW. LOWS 20 TO 25 BELOW. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 20 BELOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30 BELOW. HIGHS 10 TO 20 BELOW. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15 BELOW. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I still like the look of the ensembles in the longer range. They try to build heights near AK, which is better than the Aleutians. Of course we still deal with a -PNA, but it's a much better look than what we've had which is all you can ask for at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Is the Xmas eve snow norlun just for eastern areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Is the Xmas eve snow norlun just for eastern areas? It's just the euro op doing this really right now. It's got stuff region wide, but mostly ern areas. I wouldn't hang my hat on it yet, although the pattern says not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Today's Euro showed some promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Today's Euro showed some promise you know the closed low climo. At the least we get healthy squalls at the best impulses drop in and deliver some good periods of snow. Nothing is certain anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 you know the closed low climo. At the least we get healthy squalls at the best impulses drop in and deliver some good periods of snow. Nothing is certain anymore. As long as that happens as modeled and it does shoot out under us we will get snow in some way shape or form. But it's tiptoe they tulips time in this day and age as models have been abysmal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I still like the look of the ensembles in the longer range. They try to build heights near AK, which is better than the Aleutians. Of course we still deal with a -PNA, but it's a much better look than what we've had which is all you can ask for at this stage. How do the AO/NAO look Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 As long as that happens as modeled and it does shoot out under us we will get snow in some way shape or form. But it's tiptoe they tulips time in this day and age as models have been abysmal I know where you are coming from but disagree... we are just spending wayyyyy too much time concentrating on threats/set-ups that are 7-16 days away. And we have to remain conservative and skeptical until you're 72 hours in...can't be locking things in and trying to pin down details 4-8 days out. Some may think Ryan is debbie downer, but he's right a lot of the time because of it. As Will and Coastal and Ryan always say, that's an eternity in model time. Plus, this most recent event you can't really blame the models, everyone knew it would be hard to resolve with with multiple shortwaves all in short succession. And in fact, the models now have had similar solutions for about 2 days now, which would be 4 days lead time for the bigger storm on Tuesday. That's really not bad lead time. And the models do always seem worse when its not snowing. No one would care if we were expecting a torch pattern and got 3 snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro ensembles look pretty damn good on the PAC side going forward. Hopefully we get that nice ridging near AK to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro ensembles look pretty damn good on the PAC side going forward. Hopefully we get that nice ridging near AK to stick. Just took a look and agree completely. The PNA looks to do a full reversal with most models driving up a big ridge into the western portions of canada. There is a ton of cold sitting up in E AK and the Yukon, putting a ridge there will pipe a lot of that down into the eastern portion of the US. Hopefully we get a little help from the atlantic as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro ensembles look pretty damn good on the PAC side going forward. Hopefully we get that nice ridging near AK to stick. yea that's a nice look. If you look at this month's evolution it really defines step down. As Jerry would say delayed but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Just took a look and agree completely. The PNA looks to do a full reversal with most models driving up a big ridge into the western portions of canada. There is a ton of cold sitting up in E AK and the Yukon, putting a ridge there will pipe a lot of that down into the eastern portion of the US. Hopefully we get a little help from the atlantic as well Case in point: Currently -437 and foggy in Fairbanks. Was -40 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.