snowchill Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 this is going to be a fun 6 hours here 6 hour thump.gif 12z 1.17.13.gif Ya gfs at 30hr--- 24hr total precip had 1.78" just south of you all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 snowing in Covington and starting to snow just west of I-81. That needs to creep EAST quickly or we will bust on the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't know about out there, but this whole thing about temperatures needing to drop quickly...yeah, here temps. were forecast to drop slowly, so I don't feel that's a concern at this point. Temps. have started to drop anyhow. Whilst I was tracking what the local stations are saying as they play catch-up, I'm still lost because they keep going lower and lower and lower with their maps, and yet the models are holding steady, and the NWS office in Wakefield upped totals. Why don't they all just admit they don't have a clue...sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 There's so much rambling in the disco thread that I can't really get a clear signal. Is this still looking decent for us in SE Va, or not atm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 There's so much rambling in the disco thread that I can't really get a clear signal. Is this still looking decent for us in SE Va, or not atm? Holding in the same buddy. Watching this play out. 1-3 inches looks like a good bet atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 according to local mets, I expected to be at 45 now...currently at 43. Not saying it means more snow, but two degrees cooler atm is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Holding in the same buddy. Watching this play out. 1-3 inches looks like a good bet atm Yeah, thanks. I'm a bit further west than what is traditionally considered Hampton Roads (west of Franklin), but that sounds like a good bet. Wakefield still sticking with 2-4. The only thing that worries me at this point, is they keep pushing the changeover further back. They were calling for it at 10 pm here as of this morning, but now it's 11 pm. Hope that's not a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah, thanks. I'm a bit further west than what is traditionally considered Hampton Roads (west of Franklin), but that sounds like a good bet. Wakefield still sticking with 2-4. The only thing that worries me at this point, is they keep pushing the changeover further back. They were calling for it at 10 pm here as of this morning, but now it's 11 pm. Hope that's not a trend. Honestly, the changeover hour is only an estimate. I wouldn't stress too much at this point in time. The ULL is trending stronger anyway. Good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looking at the recent trends of NAM/GFS for ORF I would say it isnt looking as great. Earlier runs had us sitting around 33ish for a little longer in the 2AM time frame tomorrow. Although it might be time to nowcast the trends were great yesterday and not so much today. Dont get me wrong ill be happy to just see some snow falling. Still hoping for the best!! BTW I have relocated, now in the Kempsville area of VB near the Chesapeake line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Down to about 42/43 here in Midlothian now. Still all RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Temps aren't dropped as fast as I thought they would here. Are temps supposed to crash soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looking at the recent trends of NAM/GFS for ORF I would say it isnt looking as great. Earlier runs had us sitting around 33ish for a little longer in the 2AM time frame tomorrow. Although it might be time to nowcast the trends were great yesterday and not so much today. Dont get me wrong ill be happy to just see some snow falling. Still hoping for the best!! BTW I have relocated, now in the Kempsville area of VB near the Chesapeake line. Screw NAM GFS this close in. HRRR and RAP looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Temps aren't dropped as fast as I thought they would here. Are temps supposed to crash soon? We'll be fine. As long as the upper levels are cooling, which they are, no one needs to worry too much. I think all along this was going to be a situation where we needed solid rates to bring down the cool air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 snow in louisa now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 snow in louisa now link. VDOT cameras show rain in CHO edit...see flakes in Gordonsville at 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 link. VDOT cameras show rain in CHO edit...see flakes in Gordonsville at 64 Interesting that louisa changed over before CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Heavier rates to the E of CVille are causing the temps to crash. Me likey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Heavier rates to the E of CVille are causing the temps to crash. Me likey! yep rain snow sleet mix in powhatan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 cloudy/windy/cold (thought not cold enough) in Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Temp at 39.5, Dew point at 22 degrees IMBY....won't take long for that to go to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcg1999 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 sleet in Glen Allen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Little sleet mixing in Church Hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Anyone feel the giant hole in the precip shield over SE Va is reason for concern? Or will it fill in as the storm moves east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Anyone feel the giant hole in the precip shield over SE Va is reason for concern? Or will it fill in as the storm moves east? No concern. Storm will develop more as it moves east. Everything is as planned so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Been snowing for 45 minutes and everything is white except for a slush on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Finally snowing in Charlottesville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 sleet snow in powhatan temp 36 nice band setting up to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DT Just post hot off the presses!! *** ALERT *** ALERT *** for EASTERN VA ONLY... east of RICHMOND METRO AREA..West point the Middle Peninsula ... Northern neck ... Williamsburg Newprot News and INTERIOR south side of Hampton roads .. Chesapeake and Suffolk....the 18Z NAM and other short range models have SIGNIFICANTLY increased the SNOW for all of these areas.this means that snow amounts which MOST TV stations have as 1-3" -- now stands a MUCH better chance of seeing 4 " of snow. The MODEL data actually gives places such as Charles City and William burg and Gloucester 6" of snow BUT it will be WET and the ratio will not be 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 all snow in oilville temp 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Last few runs on the RAP seem to be developing an area of .5-.6in 2h total with pretty decent 850s. I haven't checked soundings so take this with a grain of salt. It looks like we may be trending better in HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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