Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Never listen to DT. He's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I still find it odd, though. Why go out of your way just to remove one county from the E zone. That's just...well, stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My guess is 3 inches Norfolk, 1-2 VA Beach, 4-5 Peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderhound Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 most models show the bullseye for the storm to be roughly the rnk cwa.. yet 12 hours out blackburg forecasts significantly lighter totals than its neighboring offices, demonstrated by the numbers. the greatest differences being west of bluefield, where 20" forecasted turns to 4" just over the mercer county line. I realize that twenty inches is not attainable for this storm, and that it is dumb to expect the graphics to match up with other cwa's. My interest is mostly in what blacksburg is seeing that others may be choosing to overlook... or maybe im just jealous my point-and-click forecast isnt this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Winter Storm Warnings for a large chunk of the areahttp://www.weather.gov/akq/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't get it. Hampton: Winter Storm Warning Rain before 10pm, then snow. Low around 30. North wind 12 to 17 mph decreasing to 6 to 11 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Norfolk: Winter Weather Advisory Rain before 10pm, then snow. Low around 30. North wind 9 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Whatever, i'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't get it. Hampton: Winter Storm Warning Rain before 10pm, then snow. Low around 30. North wind 12 to 17 mph decreasing to 6 to 11 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Norfolk: Winter Weather Advisory Rain before 10pm, then snow. Low around 30. North wind 9 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Whatever, i'll take it. In their statement for the Winter Storm Warnings, they had the peninsula with 2-4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Honestly, if this storm ends up being 1-2 inches, it's not bad considering the pattern we have been in so far this winter. This storm sort of reminds me of the quick changeover some areas of HR had last year (Feb? maybe it was 2011) I was driving west on I-64 near Yorktown and went from heavy rain to blinding snow in a matter of seconds. Roads become slush covered in under 5 minutes. It really was incredible... That system wasn't able to hold on to the cold air, so it ended up mainly a bust further east. I can see it being nerve racking for those of us in Hampton Roads watching the heavy echoes stream in and waiting for the sudden changeover to come in on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Honestly, if this storm ends up being 1-2 inches, it's not bad considering the pattern we have been in so far this winter. This storm sort of reminds me of the quick changeover some areas of HR had las year (Feb?). I was driving west on I-64 near Yorktown and went from heavy rain to blinding snow in a matter of seconds. Roads become slush covered in under 5 minutes. It really was incredible... That system wasn't able to hold on to the cold air, so it ended up mainly a bust further east. I can see it being nerve racking for those of us in Hampton Roads watching the heavy echoes stream in and waiting for the sudden changeover to come in on time. Should be pretty hectic from 10pm to 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Models looking better for us and same old lame akq always waits for southside to get the warning last. Juat pull the damn trigger! 2-4 orf 3-5 peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteKEAN2004 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Models looking better for us and same old lame akq always waits for southside to get the warning last. Juat pull the damn trigger! 2-4 orf 3-5 peninsula Hey, I may be old...but I'm not lame! In all seriousness, while I'll come back and take crow if it happens...I just don't see that as a likely outcome right now (2-4 orf). Sure, It's certainly possible (It's not THAT much more, after all). Thing is that at this point we're not near our confidence threshold for issuing a warning). The good news is that the dayshift will get the chance to hone as needed...and if the deformation zone looks to set up a bit farther south, you'll see the upgrade. Simple as that. As for the Hampton/ORF issue referenced earlier, unfortunately that's going to happen at the eastern most point of the peninsula...the remainder of the area was easily in the 2-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey, I may be old...but I'm not lame! In all seriousness, while I'll come back and take crow if it happens...I just don't see that as a likely outcome right now (2-4 orf). Sure, It's certainly possible (It's not THAT much more, after all). Thing is that at this point we're not near our confidence threshold for issuing a warning. The good news is that the dayshift will get the chance to hone as needed...and if the deformation zone looks to set up a bit farther south, you'll see the upgrade. Simple as that. As for the Hampton/ORF issue referenced earlier, unfortunately that's going to happen at the eastern most point of the peninsula...the remainder of the area was easily in the 2-5. Can you explain which models/maps one would look at to determine where the deformation zone might set up? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey, I may be old...but I'm not lame! In all seriousness, while I'll come back and take crow if it happens...I just don't see that as a likely outcome right now (2-4 orf). Sure, It's certainly possible (It's not THAT much more, after all). Thing is that at this point we're not near our confidence threshold for issuing a warning). The good news is that the dayshift will get the chance to hone as needed...and if the deformation zone looks to set up a bit farther south, you'll see the upgrade. Simple as that. As for the Hampton/ORF issue referenced earlier, unfortunately that's going to happen at the eastern most point of the peninsula...the remainder of the area was easily in the 2-5. haha I use the word lame in frustration of how we always get the warning later than everyone else. Thanks for your input! I Have a good feeling for overperforming here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 As for the Hampton/ORF issue referenced earlier, unfortunately that's going to happen at the eastern most point of the peninsula...the remainder of the area was easily in the 2-5. Wasn't sure if I had missed a forecast or what. Makes sense. Thanks for keeping us updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'll take two inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Is that your map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We closed schools in Albemarle County today - other counties in our area are doing an early dismissal. Our 8-12 inches prediction was pushed down to 4-6 with the early am update from LWX. It takes 3 hours to transport all our students home, and we felt there was too much risk with the uncertainty of the changeover time and the possible snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour. Now this storm needs to verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Jon Cash for those who still remember him Snow index 10 for the Peninsula and points northSnow Index 8 for Southside and points southRain all day today with falling temps into the 30s. The rain will change over to snow this evening from northwest to southeast, starting in Williamsburg around sunset and around 7-9pm on the peninsula and 9-11pm on the southside. Given those times, 3-6" of snow expected from the peninsula north and west and 2-5" of snow expected southside. Lesser amounts in North Carolina expected with several inches around Ahoskie to maybe a dusting in Currituck. Once again, the timing of the changeover is the key to the forecast. Since I am going for an earlier time for the changeover, my numbers are a bit higher than others. Why? The Prec. this evening will be very steady and heavy and the dynamics of the atmophere will be explosive. This argues for a sooner transfer to snow due to evaporative cooling of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Jon Cash for those who still remember him Hey Martin! Jon Cash...remember him well! I like "SnowCon" better As in, SnowCon 1 for central VA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM seems to be keeping the better snows to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 12z Nam is sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 pics please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 12z Nam is sickI don't know man, while the 850s look nice, the snow output keeps trending less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Maybe by this point, SeVa, it's time to put down the models and just watch how things play out. This is pretty much a nowcasting situation. Anyway, AccuNever's HM also went out of his way to remove only this area from the heavier snows, which for the more inland areas like here, I find somewhat comical. Nothing has drastically changed to cause these mets to be dropping their snow totals, and as it stands, everything is still on track. Surprisingly, TWC, which is typically more conservative, gives the area 3-6 on their updated map. Guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Should be a fun one to watch. Hope you guys do well down in the SE. I'm hoping I can sneak into the northern fringe of the heavy stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Should be a fun one to watch. Hope you guys do well down in the SE. I'm hoping I can sneak into the northern fringe of the heavy stuff here. You are a Giants Fan? I Hope you get zero snow while your neighbor gets 10 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 this is going to be a fun 6 hours here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Man, I'll sign for 1 inch in Va. Beach right now.It would be nice just to see it fall for a couple of hours with no accum. as bad as this winter has been so far. We haven't even had a day below 40 yet so it's really a small miracle that we're getting anything at all at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Jon Cash has the best forecast so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.