SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 And WAVY goes the conservative route still. I find it sort of comical really (not saying they won't be right), but they seem fairly convinced that because their piece of crap futuretrak model says changeover won't happen til midnight and that it won't be all snow, that we're getting nothing over most of the state... All I can think is, when has futuretrak ever been right? I mean, it showed virtually nothing before 12-26-04, 1-30-10, and 12-26-10. And we all know how those turned out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wavy is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WVEC's internal model they use currently calling for 3-6 for inland HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 For any lurkers out there, we have a nice little WX group on Facebook for Central/SW/SE VA with solid disco going on. PM me for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA354 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ASTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOW WILLINTENSIFY AND TRACK ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOONRESULTING IN WINTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. COLD HIGHPRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES PRONOUNCED POSITIVE TILT UPPERTROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SW INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITHHIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST. DEEP SWLY FLOW IN RESPONSETO THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THEREGION. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED OVER NC WITHCAD WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE FA. HAVE SEEN LITTLE RECOVERYIN TEMPS TODAY AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THEFA...EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER 40S IN NE NC. OF INTEREST...THE TEMP ASOF 3PM IN NEW BERN NC IS 77. PRECIP WILL WANE THISAFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS UP THE NE COAST AND LOWLEVEL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOWMOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND A STRONG SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THESTALLED BOUNDARY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT WITHCHANCE/LIKELY POPS BY THURSDAY MORNING.NELY FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FA THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES IN TEMP TRENDSOVERNIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW 40S N TO UPPER 40SSOUTH...ONLY A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...STRONG MID/UPPER LOW WILL LOCATE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAYMORNING AS THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO SRN VA IN AREA OFISENTROPIC LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT. STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANTMOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW/PV ANOMALY AS IT LIFTS OUTOF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON.PRECIP WATERS WILL BE NEARLY ONE INCH WITH HIGH RH VALUES IN THEIMPORTANT DGZ. SHARP HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN STRONGFRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT THE SFC THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A 200+ KTJET EXISTS ACROSS THE NE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREADRAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER MUCH OF THE AFTERNOONACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETICFORCING/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LOCATE OVER THE WRN AND NRNFA...WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EWD FROM THEGREAT PLAINS. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE FA THURSDAYEVENING/OVERNIGHT...COLD AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLYALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP. COLD AIR WORKING INTO THISDYNAMIC OF A SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOWLATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NW. HAVE GONE UNDERMODEL GUIDANCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON THE ANTECEDENTRAINFALL/MILD WEATHER WHICH HAS KEPT GROUND TEMPERATURES WARM.HOWEVER...STRONG UVM IN THE DGZ WILL ALLOW FOR LARGER FLAKES ANDHEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL HELP SNOW ACCUMULATE REGARDLESSOF THE WARM GROUND CONDITIONS. ANOTHER THING TO OVERCOME IS LOWLEVEL TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.HAVE GONE UNDER MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TOMORROW EVENING AS PRECIPFALLING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP COOL THE LOW LEVELS. ASTHE LOW PUSHES OUT OVER THE WATERS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTSNE...COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SW ALLOWING RAIN TOCHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY LATE THURSDAYNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS DRY/COLD W/NW FLOW WORKS INTO THEREGION...PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLYFRIDAY MORNING...UNDER CLEARING SKIES. WHEN ALL IS SAID ANDDONE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4 TO 5 INCHES INTHE NW TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. LOCATIONS ALONG THECOAST WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR LITTLE...IF ANY...SNOWFALLACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET(SREF PROBABILITIES OF >4 INCHES EXCEEDS 50 PCT)...HAVE OPTED TOISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AS OPPOSED TO A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IN THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMIS PRECIP BANDING. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLYNEGATIVE SAT GEO POT VORT INDICATE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ANDSOMETHING TO WATCH. BANDING WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALLAMOUNTS. GRASSY SURFACES WILL SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH SOMEACCUMULATION ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILLRANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF...WHICH ON ALREADYSATURATED SOILS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS. A FLOODWATCH MAY BE NEEDED.STRONG CAA ON FRIDAY (850 TEMPS FALL TO -7 TO -9C AND LOW LEVELTHICKNESSES FALL OVER 20 M) AND AN EXISTING SNOW PACK WILL PREVENTTEMPS FROM REACHING 40 ANY MANY LOCALES. WHILE SKIES WILL FINALLYCLEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO15 MPH...STRONGER NEAR THE COAST...WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. CHESTERFIELD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS410 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATETHURSDAY NIGHT....TONIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THELOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPHAFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT..THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT..THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW EARLY IN THEEVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE EVENING. SNOWACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDSAROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT..FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Okay, so what the heck happened? I understand that this happens. We've been through it many times before. But how does SE Va go from 1-3" to now just getting a half inch? Or maybe I'm reading that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Honestly, I wouldn't read too much into the exact amounts now. If we get in on some nice deformation band action, we will easily overcome the warmer air near the urface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Shiny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Latest RPM model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Latest RPM model... That's, essentially, a localized version of the 4km NAM with a few WSI implemented modifications. Thus, it shouldn't be a surprise its output is similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest RPM model... I am now hugging the NAM and the RPM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Probably will change, but Hampton Roads special right there. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, the forecast from WTKR and WVEC are substantially less thrilling than what the model runs have been showing all day. Surprisingly, Don-the-snow-hater-Slater released his map calling for 2-5 here in Southampton. Was quite surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest RPM model... DT currently explaining why this is model is crap. Haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Probably will change, but Hampton Roads special right there. Lol Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Please come true. Hr 30+ looks good for us. Juice town at hour 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Please come true. Hr 30+ looks good for us. Juice town at hour 33 I am ready to add more of your quotes to my sig if it happens! lets go baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If this storm goes any more south then the Hampton Roads is SOL. Hopefully, we'll be in the thick of things when the coastal rides north instead of out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ha! Show me them silver dollars! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If this storm goes any more south then the Hampton Roads is SOL. Hopefully, we'll be in the thick of things when the coastal rides north instead of out to sea. Agree, going to need to be under the juice. Still think we have a little working room, if flakes fly its a win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like a HR Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Depends when the changeover occurs, regardless, I like HR chances of 1-4" . Clown maps always turn too fast as ocean is considered. Carry the totals to the coast around ORF and we probably are more bulls eye in our terms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah, 1-4" looks about right. I wouldn't be surprised if we're on the high side of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My guess, 4-5 inches on the peninsula, 3 inches Norfolk, 1 inch VA Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My guess, 4-5 inches on the peninsula, 3 inches Norfolk, 1 inch VA Beach. Friday looking like rain or nothing. John is as consistent as the NAM today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 John is as consistent as the NAM today. At the time it looked like rain or nothing and it still could be. I'm just getting caught up in the model analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM should be right. We are golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ch 12 2-5" Ch 8 3-5" Ch 6 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=471457219568208&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater DT basically says "screw you, Hampton Roads." What I am finding strange is how I went from being in his E zone, to his F zone with the rest of HR. It doesn't exactly make sense given that nothing drastic has changed on the models throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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