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SW/Central/SE VA Winter 2012-13 Thread


MidlothianWX

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Anyway, I really pity those wanting snow, myself included. The pattern won't sustain it for the vast majority of this month, it appears. And then we're left with February before it's mostly likely game over.

 

So, that's puts the snow drought ticker for my county back at 19". We were at 40", but the Winter's of 09-10 and 10-11 brought it down to just a 2" deficit. Then, well, last "whatever it was because it wasn't winter" came..

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No one really seems to give the NAM that much credit, but both it and now the latest GFS say it's go time.

 

One thing to remember also, for the people that keep cheering this storm further north: There's a giant barricade called the Polar Vortex sitting over the northern tier, preventing it from going but so far north..

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

434 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ALL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH

THE NEXT SYSTEM THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES

PERSIST BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF...THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST

SUPPRESSED/WEAKEST SOLUTION AND THE NAM THE STRONGEST /MOST

AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING COLD AIR IN/AND SLOWEST TO DRY THE AIRMASS

OUT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. DUE TO THE FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT...HAVE

BUMPED POPS UP CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THU...WHICH NOW

APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY THROUGHOUT. CONCERN FOR WINTER PRECIP

ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AS DEEP LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING

ENABLES THE AIRMASS TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES

OF ALL MODELS BEAR THIS OUT...GENLY SHIFTING THE CRITICAL

1290-1300 M LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SOUTHWARD INTO NW ZONES BY

21Z...TO ALL OF CENTRAL VA/METRO RICHMOND A FEW HRS LATER...AND

OVERSPREADING HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC BETWEEN 03-06Z/FRI. LATEST

SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 4" OF SNOW HAVE INCREASED TO > 50% OVER WRN

PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND ARE ABOVE 20% EVEN IN SE VA.

GIVEN THE RAPID SHIFT IN THE MODELS...CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA

SNOW IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM. OVERALL...THE

POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS EVENT COMES MORE FROM THE

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN QPF. CURRENT THINKING IS

THAT THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50% CHC FOR A SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THU

AFTN IN THE NW...AND PRIMARILY THU EVENING INTO EARLY AM HRS FRI

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. EXPECT THAT AT LEAST A WINTER WX ADSY

WILL NEEDED...AND IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...MAY NEED TO ISSUE

A WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY FOR HIGHER SNOW

AMOUNTS (WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO).

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I didn't see the local wx this morning, but from what I've gathered from their websites, can someone explain to me why, after the majority of the models being onboard, and the NWS getting onboard, WAVY and WTKR have made no mention of anything regarding this?

They're going to start talking about it soon, probably later today. It's still pretty dicey as the window between the cold air getting here and the precip still hanging around is tight. This could easily be all rain with maybe just a brief mix at the end for SE VA, especially southside HR so they are right to be cautious at this point. To me this system looks almost identical to the Feb. 19 event last year and we never really got a changeover in that one.

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They're going to start talking about it soon, probably later today. It's still pretty dicey as the window between the cold air getting here and the precip still hanging around is tight. This could easily be all rain with maybe just a brief mix at the end for SE VA, especially southside HR so they are right to be cautious at this point. To me this system looks almost identical to the Feb. 19 event last year and we never really got a changeover in that one.

There were several things that went wrong with that storm, and I must disagree, because that wasn't a southern slider, like this one, if I recall correctly. Ya'll have to remember, we're looking at changeover  between 7-10 pm, with heavy precip. rates for a few hours, through 1 am. Of course, this is how it stands now. That could change.

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