RIC Airport Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Coldest hi of the season so far 40 actually felt like winter. Hopefully firing up the guns later Through January 3rd, this might be the first time RIC has failed to get a high under 40F. I will have to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Through January 3rd, this might be the first time RIC has failed to get a high under 40F. I will have to check. Yea temps struggled today under heavy overcast. 25 here now and snowing in the front yard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I said from the start that this a rain storm. You really are a very bitter person. It's a shame, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Anyway, I really pity those wanting snow, myself included. The pattern won't sustain it for the vast majority of this month, it appears. And then we're left with February before it's mostly likely game over. So, that's puts the snow drought ticker for my county back at 19". We were at 40", but the Winter's of 09-10 and 10-11 brought it down to just a 2" deficit. Then, well, last "whatever it was because it wasn't winter" came.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I said from the start that this a rain storm. You really are a very bitter person. It's a shame, really. +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 This place blows for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 GFS says take the bus out of the shed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 GFS says take the bus out of the shed. May be just take the cover off we will wait to see. worried about the cold, looks good this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Come on Friday storm! I don't care if I only get an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 18z Nam ftw! Surface is not good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 850s just look weird with the 0 line down into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Gfs 850's are very nice too with heavy qpf. Surface again is problem. Anyone have soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Friday looking like rain or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Gfs 850's are very nice too with heavy qpf. Surface again is problem. Anyone have soundings? you can check your soundings here. http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php 18z GFS at least for Newport News is rain ending as sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Waiting on the GFS before sounding the ALEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Waiting on the GFS before sounding the ALEET. I think its safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No one really seems to give the NAM that much credit, but both it and now the latest GFS say it's go time. One thing to remember also, for the people that keep cheering this storm further north: There's a giant barricade called the Polar Vortex sitting over the northern tier, preventing it from going but so far north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 May need to put some chains on those tires, and filler up this looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 434 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ALL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THU/THU NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF...THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST SUPPRESSED/WEAKEST SOLUTION AND THE NAM THE STRONGEST /MOST AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING COLD AIR IN/AND SLOWEST TO DRY THE AIRMASS OUT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. DUE TO THE FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THU...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY THROUGHOUT. CONCERN FOR WINTER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AS DEEP LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ENABLES THE AIRMASS TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OF ALL MODELS BEAR THIS OUT...GENLY SHIFTING THE CRITICAL 1290-1300 M LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SOUTHWARD INTO NW ZONES BY 21Z...TO ALL OF CENTRAL VA/METRO RICHMOND A FEW HRS LATER...AND OVERSPREADING HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC BETWEEN 03-06Z/FRI. LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 4" OF SNOW HAVE INCREASED TO > 50% OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND ARE ABOVE 20% EVEN IN SE VA. GIVEN THE RAPID SHIFT IN THE MODELS...CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM. OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS EVENT COMES MORE FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN QPF. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50% CHC FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THU AFTN IN THE NW...AND PRIMARILY THU EVENING INTO EARLY AM HRS FRI FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. EXPECT THAT AT LEAST A WINTER WX ADSY WILL NEEDED...AND IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS (WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I would just like to see some snow falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 2.87" of rain here so far very impressive for a winter event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golia1w Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 2.87" of rain here so far very impressive for a winter event Was just going to post that I have had over 2.5" since Monday. Would be great to add that much snow to end the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I didn't see the local wx this morning, but from what I've gathered from their websites, can someone explain to me why, after the majority of the models being onboard, and the NWS getting onboard, WAVY and WTKR have made no mention of anything regarding this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Historically, we do not do well in these marginal events. They are just covering their asses in case of a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I didn't see the local wx this morning, but from what I've gathered from their websites, can someone explain to me why, after the majority of the models being onboard, and the NWS getting onboard, WAVY and WTKR have made no mention of anything regarding this? They're going to start talking about it soon, probably later today. It's still pretty dicey as the window between the cold air getting here and the precip still hanging around is tight. This could easily be all rain with maybe just a brief mix at the end for SE VA, especially southside HR so they are right to be cautious at this point. To me this system looks almost identical to the Feb. 19 event last year and we never really got a changeover in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Historically, we do not do well in these marginal events. They are just covering their asses in case of a bust. I know that, but for now, at least, inland and northern Hampton Roads looks pretty decent. The whole viewing area is definitely still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 They're going to start talking about it soon, probably later today. It's still pretty dicey as the window between the cold air getting here and the precip still hanging around is tight. This could easily be all rain with maybe just a brief mix at the end for SE VA, especially southside HR so they are right to be cautious at this point. To me this system looks almost identical to the Feb. 19 event last year and we never really got a changeover in that one. There were several things that went wrong with that storm, and I must disagree, because that wasn't a southern slider, like this one, if I recall correctly. Ya'll have to remember, we're looking at changeover between 7-10 pm, with heavy precip. rates for a few hours, through 1 am. Of course, this is how it stands now. That could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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