WhiteoutWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I hope this happens but it seems overdone for RIC in my opinion. What do you guys think? https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=489244517802483&set=pb.146491555411116.-2207520000.1362438673&type=3&theater I think that much snow could fall but just won't accumulate to those amounts due to warm temps, timing (during the day), and heavy rain before the changeover. If GFS is right cut that in half or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Game over? Seems so. Heh. On to hurricane season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Bring on Spring. I'm ready for greening and warmer days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We might get to have a below normal March though. Seems some hints that after some moderation we'll get cold again.. Prolong warm days might have to wait till April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah I think its pretty much over as far as a shot at accumulating snow. Maybe here in the west end we can squeeze out a slushy inch but I'm not very optimistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winter is over....but in typical fashion, I don't think we'll get very nice weather until April. I've got to move. Cold weather sucks without snow....and Richmond is the KING of 33 degree rains. Wish we could just stay in the low 70's until June! Rant over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winter is over....but in typical fashion, I don't think we'll get very nice weather until April. I've got to move. Cold weather sucks without snow....and Richmond is the KING of 33 degree rains. Wish we could just stay in the low 70's until June! Rant over Yeah, there is definitely something going on here. Sure, a lot of it has to do with the fact that Richmond is right on the fall line, the location relative to the mountains/ocean, ect. However, the lack of a snowfall greater than 14" (outside of the western suburbs) for 30 years now is concerning. The topic of a changing climo needs to be discussed. It really is funny, if you go back many years and watch videos of old storm forecasts, the same old pattern emerges. Richmond is nearly guaranteed to be in the bullseye approximately 3-4 days out only to have the low pressure slowly trend north. I know this first-hand from tracking storms in 2010 and have video evidence from 96 and 2003. Long story short, it sucks to be a snow weenie in the RVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 typical for Richmond.....you can almost set your watch to it. 5 days out, RIC is bullseye. Even 4 days out we get crushed. On day 3, things move north a bit, and by day 2, we're out of it. It happened at least 3 times in 2010. to further your point, I will repost by timeline of RIC winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 to further your point, I will repost by timeline of RIC winter storms. Only time I can recall us getting the [semi]-jackpot was January 2010. That wasn't a miller-type storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Only time I can recall us getting the [semi]-jackpot was January 2010. That wasn't a miller-type storm though. Yep...that was a scenario where a strong over running event hit. The system came from the SW and ran into a brutally cold air mass. Ironically, that storm was supposed to crush NC and SE Va, only to trend north. And in true Va fashion, even DC cashed in on the event when they weren't supposed to see much. And for the next 2 weeks, they saw close to 40 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z GFS puts RIC right on the cusp of some snow. At this point, I think you weigh the NAM more heavily, and that had next to nothing for RIC. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnowdepth036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z GGEM and especially UKMET still keep the mega band across central VA. Not all hope is lost. It's the Americans vs the world. Unfortunately America usually wins lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro still favors the Charlottesville area. Amazing consistency....right or wrong. RIC would also pick up a few inches, and especially if you are 20-30 miles W or NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro still favors the Charlottesville area. Amazing consistency....right or wrong. RIC would also pick up a few inches, and especially if you are 20-30 miles W or NW. The consistency of each model has been amazing over the past few days. No model wants to budge from its respective solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Interestingly enough, the western portions of Henrico and Chesterfield counties are right on the 40% HPC probability line for 4" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Interestingly enough, the western portions of Henrico and Chesterfield counties are right on the 40% HPC probability line for 4" or more. If 4 inches fall there, then metro RIC is going to see 2-3. Goochland courthouse would see 8.....based on the sharp cutoffs depicted on models Maybe my move to east central goochland will pay off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC is after my heart THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED THE SFC-700 MB LOWFASTER OFFSHORE AND THIS TREND MAKES THE GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTIONOF THE SUITE OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES.GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN...A FASTER SOLUTION IS NOTPREFERRED....WITH THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN CLUSTERING BETTER TIMINGWISE WITH THE 09Z SREF MEAN/12Z UKMET/00Z-12Z ECMWF.THE CONSENSUS PREFERENCE IS REPRESENTED BY A BLEND OF THE 00Z-12ZECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC is after my heart Lol good to hear they prefer the 3 best models for our area. Should be interesting to see how the banding sets up on radar. I think we will know which solution is right later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For once....I would love our forecast to BUST in a good way. We never get surprise snows....aside from that mini band that set up for a few hours in 2010. Even Dec 2010 was mostly a bust for RIC. Here's hoping for a surprise 6 inch snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol good to hear they prefer the 3 best models for our area. Should be interesting to see how the banding sets up on radar. I think we will know which solution is right later tonight or early tomorrow morning. For once....I would love our forecast to BUST in a good way. We never get surprise snows....aside from that mini band that set up for a few hours in 2010. Even Dec 2010 was mostly a bust for RIC. Here's hoping for a surprise 6 inch snow! Are you guys in our RIC WX Facebook group? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Are you guys in our RIC WX Facebook group? it doesn't seem to turn up on a search for me. Got a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We might get to have a below normal March though. Seems some hints that after some moderation we'll get cold again.. Prolong warm days might have to wait till April. One of the models must disagree at least, as my extended forecast is showing a lot of 60's starting to creep in starting after this storm moves out, and again after St. Pat's Day. Even saw a pop of 70 in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z Euro snowmap. Looks like the extreme western parts of Henrico and Chesterfield are right on the edge of the 3"-6" line. Downtown Richmond is definitely in the 1-3". https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/644202_523056964404561_1615223543_n.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z Euro snowmap. Looks like the extreme western parts of Henrico and Chesterfield are right on the edge of the 3"-6" line. Downtown Richmond is definitely in the 1-3". https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/644202_523056964404561_1615223543_n.png One can hope! It would be my biggest storm since Jan 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z GFS says best snow for western RIC since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 And yet another winter goes by without the elusive 14"+ RIC snowfall. Makes it 30 years now. Here's to 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 And yet another winter goes by without the elusive 14"+ RIC snowfall. Makes it 30 years now. Here's to 2013-14. makes it hard to listen to the DC crowd, doesn't it? Spoiled brats. Our own little slice of snow hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 14" is nearly a dream for this area. What's more concerning is the elusive official 10" storm. Last time Richmond broke that mark was Jan 2000 in one storm. Even in 09/10, despite numerous reports of snow totals higher than that. The airport failed to reach the 10" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's going to be painful to watch that rain/snow line progress eastward only to stop about 30 miles west of me (West Henrico)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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