Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't see this being much of an event for SW Virginia either (Roanoke and points south). I'm not feeling it anymore. I'll wait for the 12z Euro before completely throwing the towel in. Of course, I'd love to eat my words, but this just isn't our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think it's pretty much done for southern VA, Richmond metro area, and South East Virginia. This storm will probably be mostly rain.. and what ever frozen it switches to late will not amount to much. Especially points in and south east of Richmond Virginia. NAM didn't look terrible for RIC, although SE would be rather minimal impact. GFS is the only one that looks like a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 About 100-150 miles further south and it could have been epic. Everything else is in place. Well, at least we got close a couple of times this winter. I've seen years where we didn't even have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 typical for Richmond.....you can almost set your watch to it. 5 days out, RIC is bullseye. Even 4 days out we get crushed. On day 3, things move north a bit, and by day 2, we're out of it. It happened at least 3 times in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think it's pretty much done for southern VA, Richmond metro area, and South East Virginia. This storm will probably be mostly rain.. and what ever frozen it switches to late will not amount to much. Especially points in and south east of Richmond Virginia. I refuse to throw in the towel completely on this one unless the Euro does something drastic here. Most models still give RIC and points N / W at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I refuse to throw in the towel completely on this one unless the Euro does something drastic here. Most models still give RIC and points N / W at least a few inches. I'm not ruling that out. But it's really is mostly rain on most models now. With varying amounts of snow to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro says no thank you. Huge prize fight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nope....Euro moved north. RIC is mostly rain according to the usual DC jackasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro at least puts Richmond in the Precipitation Bull's eye. :-p What ever precip type that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nope....Euro moved north. RIC is mostly rain according to the usual DC jackasses. I beg to differ. The comma head goes right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nope....Euro moved north. RIC is mostly rain according to the usual DC jackasses. Ha, this made me laugh. The regional hate has been strong this winter so I only post in the VA thread because many folks on the "Mid Atlantic" thread focus only on DC and MD. A snow famine will do that. Not nearly as bad as it was on Eastern but it still exists here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ha, this made me laugh. The regional hate has been strong this winter so I only post in the VA thread because many folks on the "Mid Atlantic" thread focus only on DC and MD. A snow famine will do that. Not nearly as bad as it was on Eastern but it still exists here. To be fair, I aimed that comment at Ji....who goes out of his way to trash DT (and consequently, RIC) at every turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ha, this made me laugh. The regional hate has been strong this winter so I only post in the VA thread because many folks on the "Mid Atlantic" thread focus only on DC and MD. A snow famine will do that. Not nearly as bad as it was on Eastern but it still exists here. To be fair, I aimed that comment at Ji....who goes out of his way to trash DT (and consequently, RIC) at every turn. To be fair, I'm pretty much fed up with DT as well, but yeah, the rejoicing that takes place when RIC gets screwed is pretty unbearable. I definitely understand it as NOVA/DC/MD usually benefit when we end up with nothing, but sometimes it is a bit over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To be fair, I'm pretty much fed up with DT as well, but yeah, the rejoicing that takes place when RIC gets screwed is pretty unbearable. I definitely understand it as NOVA/DC/MD usually benefit when we end up with nothing, but sometimes it is a bit over the top. DT is great at picking up on threats......however, his childish actions and complete lack of objectiveness make it very hard to follow him. Something ain't right with his noggin. Unfortunately, his posts always jump up on my FB due to the volume of comments. But I loathe the DC crowd.....they are spoiled brats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Regardless of all the banter. There is no doubts points north and west of Richmond will cash in greatly.. Especially around Charlotesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Regardless of all the banter. There is no doubts points north and west of Richmond will cash in greatly.. Especially around Charlotesville. weenie in me wants to know your opinion on eastern Goochland. Far enough west to see something? Or just the same as Metro RIC.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 weenie in me wants to know your opinion on eastern Goochland. Far enough west to see something? Or just the same as Metro RIC.? Far north western Goochland 10 to 12" based on models.. would probably expand it to a more general 8 to 12 for that area. The South Eastern portion of the county closer to richmond. 5 to 8 inches? Favoring around 6..... Where I live just south east of the airport. 2" max. O-o; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 March 1 2009 redux? Mostly fell as rain, I picked up 7" in far West End after transition but I think the city and airport had considerably less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Far north western Goochland 10 to 12" based on models.. would probably expand it to a more general 8 to 12 for that area. The South Eastern portion of the county closer to richmond. 5 to 8 inches? Favoring around 6..... Where I live just south east of the airport. 2" max. O-o; Appreciate it! I moved out here to try and put a little space b/t me and the infamous I-95 rain/snow line of my youth. As it is currently, I am about 4 miles W of 288. I wanted to be about 10 miles further, but my wife was having none of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a shame this isn't the weekend. I think I would head to Wintergreen/Massanutten for this one.....it would be nice to ski in VA on real snow, even if it is heavy and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't see this being much of an event for SW Virginia either (Roanoke and points south). I'm not feeling it anymore. I'll wait for the 12z Euro before completely throwing the towel in. Of course, I'd love to eat my words, but this just isn't our storm. We're going to get fringed, but it is very difficult to know how much snow we'll get. Definitely less than 6", but the dynamics are going to be very impressive. The NAM and GFS are outputting 27:1 and 24:1 ratios respectively, but per usual we won't get that much. I'm think 2-4 and all of that coming in a very short 2 or 3 hour window. Then flurries once the cold air arrives and upslope/NW flow kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Good analysis by WxSouth... "For Richmond to the Southeast corner of the state, it depends on the exact angle, trajectory and tilt of the upper low (which for various meteorological reasons , is still hard to nail down) The slightest wobble or tilt to the upper low will affect that section of VA by either increasing the precip dramatically (rain to snow quicker, and more of it) or by being lighter precip and less snow--its a real tight rope there , and literally anything from almost no snow, to a FOOT of snow is on the table. Such is life on the periphery of a storm like this. Further inland and north, a heavy snow is certain." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Made a snowfall map for giggles. Still a lot of uncertainty, especially at the northern edges and along the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hilarity watching DC folks whine over a rainy 18z GFS in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Things certainly looking bleaker down this way but I wouldn't completely give up yet. As long as we have a major global in our camp I'm still on the bus (although probably at the door). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 March 1 2009 redux? Mostly fell as rain, I picked up 7" in far West End after transition but I think the city and airport had considerably less. Not possible. That storm dumped 3 inches down here. I refuse to compare this rainstorm to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We went from being on the northern fringe to now being in the dry slot. The way this thing is going, Boston might be cashing in... Hopefully we can get a few more northern shifts to screw NoVa as well, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice disco by AKQ... .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...FOR THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA...GENLYFOLLOWING HPC`S LEAD AND BLENDED SEVERAL OF THE 04/12Z MODELSINCLUDING THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THINGS HAVE NOT CHANGED THATMUCH...AND WOULD SUGGEST THE MAIN IMPACT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWWOULD BE OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 12Z NAMSOLUTION IS THE COLDEST AND MOST BULLISH WITH SNOWFALL ACROSS OURFA...AND WOULD FAVOR A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONOVER CENTRAL AND EVEN SOUTHERN VA....BUT AT THIS TIME IS THE LEASTWEIGHTED SOLUTION.WHAT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS W/THIS UPCOMING EVENT: MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ABOUT 5 STDDEVIATION ANOMALIES WITH RESPECT TO U COMPONENT OF 850 MB WIND(I.E. STRONG/ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS). ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATIONHAS VARIED (GENLY BEING LOCATED OVER THE NRN MID ATLC REGION ORFAR SOUTHERN NJ/PA). THIS TENDS TO BE A STRONG INDICATOR OF ASIGNIFICANT EVENT ACRS AKQ CWA. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THE VERYIMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OCCURRING ON THE NW SIDE OF THELOW TRACK...AND POTENTIAL FOR BANDING OF PRECIP. THE HIGHEST SNOWAMOUNTS WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE NARROW BAND OF STRONGESTFORCING AND ANY DEVIATION IN THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND WILLDRASTICALLY CHANGE WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OCCURS.FOR NOW...AND THIS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...THIS APPEARS TORESIDE OVER NRN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE LAST FACTOR...WHICHCOULD BE INHIBITING AT LEAST IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONWILL BE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FACT THAT ENTIRE REGION EXCEPTFOR POSSIBLY THE FAR NW WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF RAINTUE NIGHT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. STILL..THINK DYNAMICALLY DRIVENCOOLING DUE TO INTENSE LIFT AND PRECIP RATES WILL BE ABLE TOOVERCOME THE WARMTH AT THE SFC. WHEN THIS OCCURS THE LOWER LEVELSWILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN FROZEN...AND WITHTHE STRONG FORCING AND HEAVY PRECIP RATES...SNOW COULD BEGIN TOACCUMULATE VERY QUICKLY.CONCERNING HEADLINES...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS ACRS THEPIEDMONT FROM FVX TO LOUISA AND A FEW COUNTIES EAST. THIS IS DUETO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BEGIN EARLY WED MORNING. FARTHEREAST...THE CHANGEOVER/OR AT LEAST TIME WHEN SNOW BEGINS TOACCUMULATE IS GENLY EXPECTED AFTER 11Z. HAVE ADDED IN SEVERAL MORECOUNTIES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH (NAMELYHANOVER/CAROLINE OVER TO WESTMORELAND) FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED.FCST GENLY HAS SNOW BECOMING MAIN P-TYPE ACRS MUCH OF METRORICHMOND SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z/WED...ALTHOUGH THIS IS UNCERTAINAND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHARP CUTOFF WITHIN THE METROAREA ITSELF. THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST IS JUST HOWMUCH SNOW FALLS FROM DOWNTOWN RICHMOND SOUTH AND EAST ASCHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO OCCUR HERE AND BYTHAT TIME MUCH OF THE QPF WILL BE LOCATED TOO FAR NORTH. HAVEANOTHER DAY TO LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE DECISIONS WILL NEED TO BEMADE ON ANY WARNINGS/WINTER WX ADVISORIES.THE KEY POINT OF THIS EVENT IS THAT THIS STORM WILL CREATE AHIGHLY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND THE LACK OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACECOULD BE OVERCOME BY COOLING FROM ALOFT WITH A PERIOD OF VERYHEAVY SNOW RESULTING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST ANDNORTH OF A FARMVILLE-HANOVER-SALISBURY LINE. ALTHOUGH THERE HASBEEN SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THIS WX SCENARIO ISHIGHLY VARIABLE AND PINPOINTING SPECIFICS IN TIMING/LOCATION/AMOUNTSREMAINS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.PRECIP DOES COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST WED NIGHT INTOTHURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY WRAP-AROUND BANDOF SNOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. DRY WXRETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope this happens but it seems overdone for RIC in my opinion. What do you guys think? https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=489244517802483&set=pb.146491555411116.-2207520000.1362438673&type=3&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope this happens but it seems overdone for RIC in my opinion. What do you guys think? https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=489244517802483&set=pb.146491555411116.-2207520000.1362438673&type=3&theater Pretty unlikely in my opinion (and no way for SE VA), but not impossible. It all depends on the dynamics which depend on the upper level track. The surface is too warm to support accumulations unless there are some robust dynamics which simply are not there for most of the duration of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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