WeSuck Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 We really need the surface low down SE of Hatteras to cash in, and even with that there isn't really any cold air in place at the surface so this would have to be dynamically driven I agree but this has always been a cold air dynamic driven system since we began following it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 We really need the surface low down SE of Hatteras to cash in, and even with that there isn't really any cold air in place at the surface so this would have to be dynamically driven That's not true. Yes, that would be the classic setup but this could evolve different and still dump a lot of snow. It would really have to bomb off the NC/VA coast to cash in. Bomb off Hatteras would be nice though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro Ensembles look similar to GFS Ensembles. We may go from extremely heavy rain to Heavy snow. Would be cool to watch. Regardless of if or when we change over.... this is going to be a beast of a storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I suppose it would be interesting, I guess. But if we're not going to see any accumulation, I can't be all that excited for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GFS says F**k you HR. No snow for you! Lol 0z might be the dagger here guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GFS says F**k you HR. No snow for you! Lol 0z might be the dagger here guys. If that's the case, then that run of the GFS must've moved towards the Euro. When DT posted the Euro snowfall map earlier, The cutoff was extremely sharp, parallel to I-95, and the tidewater got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Regardless its going to be a pretty big storm system for the area. Hopefully we can get some good snow amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=595164737180252&set=a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708&type=1&theater WxSouth on Facebook just posted this image, discussing their thoughts from their new video for premium subscribers. This would be totally awesome, albeit extremely disruptive. Unfortunately though, no one seems to be on the same page, as I said earlier. Mixed signals abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=595164737180252&set=a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708&type=1&theater WxSouth on Facebook just posted this image, discussing their thoughts from their new video for premium subscribers. This would be totally awesome, albeit extremely disruptive. Unfortunately though, no one seems to be on the same page, as I said earlier. Mixed signals abound. He must really be banking on a strong block. This storm will pound someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Based on the guidance from this afternoon and so far tonight, I'm not liking the idea of that primary into southern Ohio then the redevelopment into NC. There just not enough cold air for any good CAD this time to ensure a good front in dump. Traditionally these storms rarely work out for Central and South East Va. Really lowering the expectation for this system for this general viewing area. It is true that the low is shown to move due east more or less after transfer. This would at least give the chance for a change over to snow. That initial primary really warms us up before the redevelopment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well, that run was pure crap. Not in the sense that it will be wrong...in a sense that the only place in the state of VA that didn't get accumulating snow was...of course...Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Eh, just not our year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro is a mountain special. Likely since it is March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looking at the 96 hour map on the Euro, SE VA is the only place in the entire eastern time zone north of Florida with 850mb temps above 0. That is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 3/3 12z Euro and UKMET move south with the low. Euro actually gets it close to the SE VA sweet spot off the Carolina coast by 12z Thu. Richmond looks to be crushed by both the Euro and UKMET. I wouldn't get my hopes back up just yet but this thing may not be over for SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Save this one boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro brings the heavier snow vs 12z to RIC 8-12 west side 4-8 east side chi 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro brings the heavier snow vs 12z to RIC 8-12 west side 4-8 east side chi 12-18 How's LYH do this run? I presume pretty well since RIC seems to do pretty great on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How's LYH do this run? I presume pretty well since RIC seems to do pretty great on this one. 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I will be quite surprised if anyone in HR can break 1" with this type of system relying on a changeover. RIC, on the other hand, seems to be in a pretty decent spot for this. Hope you guys can cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ah, the Central VA weenie paradox... 1. Be grateful that there is a storm with such great dynamics this late in the season. OR/AND Most likely... 2. Wringing of hands while waiting for changover and crying over a waste of such good QPF. 3. Cursing and debating aloud why this setup could not have happened three weeks ago when temps would have been less of an issue. 4. Silently seethe while the snow is falling, you know temps next weekend will make sure it doesn't stick around long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ah, the Central VA weenie paradox... 1. Be grateful that there is a storm with such great dynamics this late in the season. OR/AND Most likely... 2. Wringing of hands while waiting for changover and crying over a waste of such good QPF. 3. Cursing and debating aloud why this setup could not have happened three weeks ago when temps would have been less of an issue. 4. Silently seethe while the snow is falling, you know temps next weekend will make sure it doesn't stick around long. This will be an interesting one for sure. On one side we have the GFS/NAM combo, on the other the Euro/UK/GGEM. Primary difference seems to be the way they handle a piece of energy scooting over upstate NY. We'll see I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This will be an interesting one for sure. On one side we have the GFS/NAM combo, on the other the Euro/UK/GGEM. Primary difference seems to be the way they handle a piece of energy scooting over upstate NY. We'll see I suppose. Even the NAM would give some snow to the RIC area (mainly N/W). The GFS looks the worst overall to me, with the deform band staying to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even the NAM would give some snow to the RIC area (mainly N/W). The GFS looks the worst overall to me, with the deform band staying to the north. This is true, NAM hasn't been terrible down this way (especially the weenie-tastic 0z run). The GFS seems to be on it's own island now - just look at the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is true, NAM hasn't been terrible down this way (especially the weenie-tastic 0z run). The GFS seems to be on it's own island now - just look at the 12z run. It disconcerting that the 12z run ticked even further north. What's odd to me is that at upper levels all the models are very close to eachother up until the low clears the coast. For some reason the NAM/GFS have the heavy band much further north centered near DC. 12z runs of GGEM/UK/EURO will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 It disconcerting that the 12z run ticked even further north. What's odd to me is that at upper levels all the models are very close to eachother up until the low clears the coast. For some reason the NAM/GFS have the heavy band much further north centered near DC. 12z runs of GGEM/UK/EURO will be huge. UK already held serve FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Any updates on the Hampton Roads area, especially inland and northern parts of Hampton Roads? Wakefield has changed my forecast to Rain and Snow on Wednesday, with snow likely after 4 PM. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This will be an interesting one for sure. On one side we have the GFS/NAM combo, on the other the Euro/UK/GGEM. Primary difference seems to be the way they handle a piece of energy scooting over upstate NY. We'll see I suppose. Well, one plus for the timing at the end of winter, whichever camp gets the win on this one will fuel the debate at least until severe wx season gets here. Come on Euro, don't let us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM looks better than GFS but is definitely north of its 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think it's pretty much done for southern VA, Richmond metro area, and South East Virginia. This storm will probably be mostly rain.. and what ever frozen it switches to late will not amount to much. Especially points in and south east of Richmond Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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