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SW/Central/SE VA Winter 2012-13 Thread


MidlothianWX

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It was 60 degrees yesterday so the lower level temps are going to be warm along with the ground temp. It snowed but it didn't really stick.

Yes. I know. That's my point. That should have been expected all along. Expecting a lot more accumulation wasn't really in the cards. But it did snow for 5 hours, so that was pretty cool.

But getting upset at what we got when we all know going in what it's like is tilting at windmills.

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2/27 0z Euro goes crazy with monster storm sitting right over SE Virginia by day 8. Huge snows for northern/western VA. Storm then moves due east with probably a changeover for central/eastern VA to snow before ending by day 9. Euro has been coming up with some extreme solutions for the 3/6-3/7 time frame. Will be interesting to see what happens.

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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPR LVL TROF PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE LATE THIS WEEKEND. LAST IN

A SERIES OF WEAK S/W`S TRACKS ACROSS NC SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST

IF NOT ALL PCPN REMAINING S OF FA. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE M20S-L30S.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY WEEK PRD BEHIND SLOWLY

DEPARTING TROF. DRY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS SUN/MON IN THE L-M40S

WITH LOWS M20S-L30S. A BIT WRMR TUE AS H85 TMPS START TO RECOVER.

HIGHS M40S-L50S.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRS SYSTM PROGGED TO DROP SE FROM THE UPR

MID WEST TUE INTO THE TN/KY VLLY TUE NITE THEN ACROSS THE SRN MID

ATLNC STATES WED. GFS MUCH WEAKER AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTM AS

IT KEEPS THE DEEPEST MSTR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH ONLY LGT PCPN

AMTS ACROSS THE FA WED. ECMWF MUCH DIFFERENT AS UPR LVL NRGY FROM

THE NORTH PHASES WITH SRN S/W RESULTING IN A MUCH DEEPER LOW THAT

TURNS NE ACROSS COASTAL NC B4 LIFTG NE ACROSS THE VA CAPES WED

NITE. NOTE THE 2/27 12Z EURO IS NOW FRTHR E WITH THE SFC LOW

MEANING THE HVYST PCPN WUD REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. LL THCKNS

SUGGEST MAINLY A RAIN EVENT TO START...PSBLY CHANGING TO SNOW B4

ENDG WED NITE. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES

FOR A DAY 7 FCST...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF

FA WED FOR NOW. PCPN TYPE REMAINS LIQUID WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

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Well, I'll say this. The Euro isn't sure exactly the details yet but it's going for a big east coast low next Wed-Thu. time frame for sure. On the 12z 2-28 run it pretty much stalls and bombs a low not far off the carolina coast day 6-7. The set-up would have been ideal for SE VA about 2-3 weeks ago but it may be too late now. Cold air is in place but looks marginal with 850's just below 0. Some place like Richmond or maybe south-central VA could get a pretty good hit out of it, though.

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Well, I'll say this. The Euro isn't sure exactly the details yet but it's going for a big east coast low next Wed-Thu. time frame for sure. On the 12z 2-28 run it pretty much stalls and bombs a low not far off the carolina coast day 6-7. The set-up would have been ideal for SE VA about 2-3 weeks ago but it may be too late now. Cold air is in place but looks marginal with 850's just below 0. Some place like Richmond or maybe south-central VA could get a pretty good hit out of it, though.

Not to beat a dead horse but come on. A storm like the euro shows would easily overcome any BL issues.

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March mayhem on the 12z GFS. Takes the low due east across NC then off Hatteras, then NE to just off Ocean City MD then backs the system S/SE to maybe 200-250 miles off Va Beach as a blocking High builds in the Canadian maritimes. For SE VA looks like rain then some wraparound light snow then maybe back to rain as the system backs in toward us from the northeast. Pretty similar to the 0z Euro actually. This is going to be a crazy one.

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Regardless of rain or snow.... IF this thing fully phases and stalls off our coast for the duration the 12z GFS shows....This could be one hell of a Nor'Easter for Hampton Roads Especially Norfolk and Portsmouth for tidal flooding as the winds would generally be coming out of the north driving the bay into them. Going to be fun to watch! Winter time Tropical storm baby! lol

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Lost most of my pier and almost lost my jet ski back in the '09 November Nor'easter.

Not looking forward to another sustained Nor'easter, at all.

Good thing is we are so far out, things can change drastically. I mean, yesterday it looked like were going to be on the northern fringe.

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Lost most of my pier and almost lost my jet ski back in the '09 November Nor'easter.

Not looking forward to another sustained Nor'easter, at all.

Good thing is we are so far out, things can change drastically. I mean, yesterday it looked like were going to be on the northern fringe.

I hear you on that. Verbatim, this would be a beast. The way it stalls and backs into the coast before heading out. WOW! 5 days to go. Maybe we will be back in snow by then.

 

I would hate to have to decide on going to see 12"+ in DC or staying here for Beast Mode Nor'Easter...hmmmmm

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