SeanVA Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 4:43 PM, JMU2004 said: the Friday storm is really all about precip fields....not going to be a big deal outside of SWVA, but someone will see 2-3 inches Central/SE VA Extreme SWVA at that. It's not looking like more than a 3-5 event in Blacksburg. We're going to get downsloped pretty hard as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We got about 2.5" here in CHO from the clipper. I don't even expect half of that from the system Friday. Dryslot in a dry storm, FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 5:10 PM, SeanVA said: Extreme SWVA at that. It's not looking like more than a 3-5 event in Blacksburg. We're going to get downsloped pretty hard as always I'd happily take 3-5 in this winter. Roanoke will maybe get an inch or two out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navywxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I would expect 2-4" on the Peninsula and 1-3" with sleet mixing in along the southside. Looks like precip should break out around 4pm and last about 4-6 hrs. Tomorrow evenings commute will be interesting... Not a bad little event for this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NWS Wakefield shows snow moving into inland areas (Emporia, Franklin, etc) by 1-2 PM, picking up in intensity between 4-7 PM, and ending by 1 AM. So while the waterfront may not get much, some of HR could do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Not holding out much hope for tomorrow being significant but did anybody see the big dog potential on the 12z Euro Day 9-10. A slow moving, suppressed system meeting up with fresh cold, this could be the one. Of course this thing tomorrow looked like it could be the one a week ago as well but hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Advisory out for SE VA including all of Hampton Roads.....1-3". Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What's up with the GFS 850s? Crazy the models can be so different 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah, the GFS 850s don't look great. Just like all other potential snows, this is going to come down to some now casting where we are straddling the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-and-slippery-travel-midwe/4784946 What in the world is AccuWeather thinking?... The storm is supposed to track almost an entire state south of where they have it... The local NWS office is typically conservative, so I'll go by their updates despite what GooFuS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NWS also bumped snow chances for Friday and Friday night to 90%. So unless it drastically drops tomorrow morning, I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 10:08 PM, SeVa said: Yeah, the GFS 850s don't look great. Just like all other potential snows, this is going to come down to some now casting where we are straddling the edge. I'm thinking the GFS is garbage at this point. That model needs an update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think we are in a decent spot here in HR for this system. You never know how this thing will react once it hits the coast. I can see us verifying on the higher end of 1-3 if the ocean cooperates and enhances the precipitation for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 10:40 PM, SeVa said: I think we are in a decent spot here in HR for this system. You never know how this thing will react once it hits the coast. I can see us verifying on the higher end of 1-3 if the ocean cooperates and enhances the precipitation for us Well, AKQ's Advisory did say that SE Va would see the highest totals out of this...so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I feel pretty good about these amounts except I think there might be more ice than a mix south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Really quite surprised by WVEC's forecast. But it's Jeff Lawson. He's usually more conservative for winter storms than Don Slater, which is pretty sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 12:41 AM, VirginiaHippie said: Really quite surprised by WVEC's forecast. But it's Jeff Lawson. He's usually more conservative for winter storms than Don Slater, which is pretty sad. What was his call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 1:21 AM, Martin said: What was his call? Basically nothing. Dusting at best because there's going to be so much supposed mixing... Call me optimistic, but I'm not seeing much mixing, for here at least. In northeast NC, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 1:45 AM, VirginiaHippie said: Basically nothing. Dusting at best because there's going to be so much supposed mixing... Call me optimistic, but I'm not seeing much mixing, for here at least. In northeast NC, sure. GFS has plenty of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 2:02 AM, Coach McGuirk said: GFS has plenty of mixing. I didn't say models weren't showing it, although the GFS is pretty warm compared to all else. That's just my feeling. My town has a projected low of 12 tonight, so I have strong doubts that it's going to make it to the mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00z NAM is warmer and wetter. Southside probably gets sleet on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 2:15 AM, Coach McGuirk said: 00z NAM is warmer and wetter. Southside probably gets sleet on this run. I agree with the wetter, but don't see any parameter that seems to be warmer that would indicate sleet north of the previous run. Where do you see warmer levels? (If you don't mind me asking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yea, 00Z Nam appears to show 3-5 for much of southside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It's not warmer. Coach is just being Coach. Is is wetter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 my gut, which is larger than I'd like and not as smart as I'd like, says GFS is going to come in slightly wetter for southside (though not nearly as nice as NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I am in Covington, KY UNDER A WINTER Weather ADVISORY myself with 1-3 inches expected tomorrow. In the teens here atm. I am hoping you guys back home win big time! Here's to 3-5 inches for you all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 12:41 AM, VirginiaHippie said: Really quite surprised by WVEC's forecast. But it's Jeff Lawson. He's usually more conservative for winter storms than Don Slater, which is pretty sad. Forgot to mention earlier that the posted pic was Jeremys call. Hes been pretty good lately. This is Dons call tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 3:08 AM, CoastalBecs said: I am in Covington, KY UNDER A WINTER Weather ADVISORY myself with 1-3 inches expected tomorrow. In the teens here atm. I am hoping you guys back home win big time! Here's to 3-5 inches for you all! You go son. I like that 3 to 5 predict for our area. The NAM does us well. I know from experiance that the Norfolk area is usually the great snow line cut off in these kinds of events. Cold high to the north and moisture moving up and over it. I like to call the Hampton Roads area , The gate way to winter storms, as further south it takes a massive cold air mass to produce regular moderate to heavy snows. There is a whole state of sounds in eastern North Carolina to "rain" up most potential snows down there. Norfolk can count on measurable snow 90% of the time in each winter, where further south its much more likely that you will have snowless winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 3:25 AM, DMADKAT said: You go son. I like that 3 to 5 predict for our area. The NAM does us well. I know from experiance that the Norfolk area is usually the great snow line cut off in these kinds of events. Cold high to the north and moisture moving up and over it. I like to call the Hampton Roads area , The gate way to winter storms, as further south it takes a massive cold air mass to produce regular moderate to heavy snows. There is a whole state of sounds in eastern North Carolina to "rain" up most potential snows down there. Norfolk can count on measurable snow 90% of the time in each winter, where further south its much more likely that you will have snowless winters. Yes sir! I bet a surprise may be in store for tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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