SW/Central/SE VA Winter 2012-13 Thread

[MidlothianWX]

Happy winter 2012-13 everyone! In the tradition of years past, I figured we should go back to our old combined thread format, as it seems to allow for better discussion.

I plan to use this first post as an archive of sorts. I will be continually updating it as I find old threads related to winter threats and discussion in general. Feel free to let me know if you've located anything that I missed.

In other news, our resident statistician Anthony (wxjunkie) will be temporarily moving back to the RIC metro area this winter. Please welcome him if you get a chance!

Winter Thread Archives

• Winter 2008-09 - http://www.americanw...__hl__ richmond (featuring 24"+ Euro megabomb blizzard run)
• Winter 2010-11 thread pt. 2 - http://www.americanw...__hl__+richmond
• Winter 2011-12 thread - http://www.americanw...__hl__+richmond

[MidlothianWX]

RIC Snowfall Climo (taken from Anthony)

Official Snowfall Climatology for RIC (Richmond, VA)

Period of record 10/1897-12/1929 (Chimborazo Park), 1/1930-present (R.E. Byrd Int’l Airport)

Averages:

1981-2010:10.3"

1897-2008:12.8"

Earliest Snowfall: Trace on October 10, 1979

Earliest Measurable Snowfall: 0.9" on November 5, 1962, 7.2" November 6, 1953

Latest Snowfall: April 28, 1898

Latest Measurable Snowfall: 2.0"on April 28, 1898, 0.2" on April 21, 1953

Highest Daily Maximum Snowfall: 19.9" January 24, 1940, 15.0" December 22, 1908, 13.3" February 11, 1983, also January 5, 1980

Snowiest Months

Trace in October 1979, 1972, and 1954

7.3" November 1953

17.2" December 1908

28.5" January 1940

21.6" February 1983

19.7" March 1960

10.0" April 1915

Top 15 Snowiest Winters (Since 1897, 25 seasons delivered more than 20" of snow)

1. 38.9" 1961-62

2. 38.6" 1979-80

3. 35.8" 1966-67

4. 34.2" 1939-40

5. 34.0" 1898-99

6. 33.7" 1917-18

7. 32.3" 1959-60

8. 30.4" 1995-96

9. 29.6" 1982-83

10. 29.2" 1965-66

11. 28.6" 1935-36

12. 28.0" 2009-10

13. 27.5" 1921-22

14. 26.8" 1913-14

15. 26.2" 1947-48

Top 15 Least Snowy Seasons (Since 1897, 24 seasons delivered less than 5")

1. T 1918-1919

2. 0.5" 1944-45

3. 0.7" 1950-51

4. 0.8" 2007-08

5. 0.9" 1991-92

6. 1.0' 1980-81/1920-21

7. 1.1" 1955-56

8. 1.2" 1997-98/1975-76

9. 1.3" 2006-07

10. 1.5" 1998-99

11. 1.6" 1926-27

12. 1.7" 1937-38

13. 1.9" 1924-25

14. 2.1" 1948-49

15. 2.2" 1902-03

16. 2.7" 1996-97

For a listing of snowstorms featuring 6.0" or greater at RIC as well as the Top 20 Largest Snowstorms CLICK HERE. (dead link)

For a listing of snowcover days at RIC, including most consecutive number of days with snowcover CLICK HERE. (dead link)

A previous analysis of snowfall data from 1950-51 thru 2006-07 revealed that the probability of a decent snowy season (which had been defined as at least 0.5 STD above the period of record mean) for any given year was 25% (15 out of 58 - 1950/51 thru 2006/07), or about once every 3.8 years. It will be interesting to see the results once a complete analysis is conducted with the additonal data I've obtained since then. I'm striving to complete an updated analysis on the data for the last 110 years.

[MidlothianWX]

Top two newspapers are February 11, 2010.

 

 

[Avdave]

Those last two snow maps should taken down immediately. They should be reasons for someone to be banned

[MidlothianWX]

Those last two snow maps should taken down immediately. They should be reasons for someone to be banned

Didn't you used to live down this way? You need to channel your inner-RIC my friend.

Deep down, I'd have to say that my true allegiance lies with the DC metro area as that is where I experienced PDII and developed my love for snow. That being said, as long as I am down here, screw everyone else

[MidlothianWX]

I nearly forgot to post the RIC This Day in Winter Weather History for the 5th...

12/4-12/5/2010: Snowfall began during the nighttime hours and lasted through the early morning. Storm total was 0.5"

[Avdave]

Didn't you used to live down this way? You need to channel your inner-RIC my friend.

Deep down, I'd have to say that my true allegiance lies with the DC metro area as that is where I experienced PDII and developed my love for snow. That being said, as long as I am down here, screw everyone else.

Yep sure did but only for 2 yrs or so. Jan 2000 was the best gift given to me while down there, but those 2 maps sting lol

[Kevin Druff]

Top 15 Least Snowy Seasons (Since 1897, 24 seasons delivered less than 5")

1.3" 2006-07

0.8" 2007-08

2.7" 1996-97

1.2" 1997-98

1.5" 1998-99

Just brutal stretches there.

Especially when you realize that the last good snowfall of '05-06 was 12/05/05 and '08-09 was looking like a match of '07-08 until March (!)... That snow drought was painful...

[MidlothianWX]

Just brutal stretches there.

Especially when you realize that the last good snowfall of '05-06 was 12/05/05 and '08-09 was looking like a match of '07-08 until March (!)... That snow drought was painful...

The timing was awful. It was damn-near impossible to convince my parents that those two seasons were anomalous in the grand scheme of things. No, we're not a snow town, but I've seen at least 4-5" every other winter that I've lived here.

And then you have to realize that, while 24 seasons have delivered less than 5" here, 25% of those have come in the last two decades.

[MidlothianWX]

Thought I'd post an interesting image I found in an old Wakefield newsletter...wasn't aware that our forecast area differed like this IRT the Pacific.

[Martin]

Thought I'd post an interesting image I found in an old Wakefield newsletter...wasn't aware that our forecast area differed like this IRT the Pacific.

Wow that is very interesting

[usedtobe]

Those last two snow maps should taken down immediately. They should be reasons for someone to be banned

lol, It reminds me of a bullish quote that I'd like to forget.

[RIC Airport]

Who in the Richmond area remembers 12/7/1995? It was the first accumulating snows of the 1995-96 season. Officially 1.5" at the airport, but many areas north and west of town saw 4-6". In fact, it was a surprise snow and was poorly forecasted.

The situation was even more extreme for Western VA with 6" at Lynchburg and 10" at Roanoke! Certainly a good start to a fabulous winter.

[MidlothianWX]

Who in the Richmond area remembers 12/7/1995? It was the first accumulating snows of the 1995-96 season. Officially 1.5" at the airport, but many areas north and west of town saw 4-6". In fact, it was a surprise snow and was poorly forecasted.

The situation was even more extreme for Western VA with 6" at Lynchburg and 10" at Roanoke! Certainly a good start to a fabulous winter.

The oldest event listed on AKQ's archive is from January 1995 but they skip the Dec. snow you are referring to. I wish they'd finish this page...

http://www.erh.noaa....winter/snow.htm

[Kevin Druff]

Who in the Richmond area remembers 12/7/1995? It was the first accumulating snows of the 1995-96 season. Officially 1.5" at the airport, but many areas north and west of town saw 4-6". In fact, it was a surprise snow and was poorly forecasted.

The situation was even more extreme for Western VA with 6" at Lynchburg and 10" at Roanoke! Certainly a good start to a fabulous winter.

I don't remember that at all. However, at 13 it probably wouldn't have registered as anything more or less than a day out of school.

[MidlothianWX]

Warm up the bus.

[Martin]

Lets get this show on the road

[golia1w]

For a day where there was only a 20% chance of showers, I wound up with .8" in my rain gauge yesterday.

[RIC Airport]

Lets get this show on the road

I'm afraid we are doomed, Martin.

But, I'll be happy with a late season turn out. There are quite a few years where things didn't really begin until February 1st so there is time. Plus, I'll be temporarily relocating to Richmond in January. I'll be out of town almost every weekend so unless we get something mid-week that month, February and later works best for me.

Cheers!

[RIC Airport]

Here are the years with the most Richmond snow February 1st or later. The top 4 were huge March years.

1. 28.6" (1960)

2. 26.8" (1914)

3. 22.8" (1947)

4. 22.0" (1980)

5. 21.4" (1983)

6. 19.5" (1979)

7. 18.4" (1964)

8. 17.4" (1962)

9. 17.1" (1967)

10. 16.2" (1907)

11. 15.8" (1934)

12. 14.0" (1958)

13. 13.7" (1972)

14. 13.6" (1989)

15. 13.4" (1906)

16. 13.3" (1936)

17. 12.7" (1912)

18. 12.5" (1910)

19. 11.9" (1969) and (1915)

20. 11.0" (1982), (1971) and (1952)

[usedtobe]

Here are the years with the most Richmond snow February 1st or later. The top 4 were huge March years.

1. 28.6" (1960)

2. 26.8" (1914)

3. 22.8" (1947)

4. 22.0" (1980)

5. 21.4" (1983)

6. 19.5" (1979)

7. 18.4" (1964)

8. 17.4" (1962)

9. 17.1" (1967)

10. 16.2" (1907)

11. 15.8" (1934)

12. 14.0" (1958)

13. 13.7" (1972)

14. 13.6" (1989)

15. 13.4" (1906)

16. 13.3" (1936)

17. 12.7" (1912)

18. 12.5" (1910)

19. 11.9" (1969) and (1915)

20. 11.0" (1982), (1971) and (1952)

Nice post, I may composite the years in the next couple of days. I thought you were in Colorado, are you back in Richmond or did my memory gor completely old on me.

[RIC Airport]

Let's back it up to January 15th and later.

1. 29.2" (1966)

2. 28.6" (1960)

3. 27.5" (1922)

4. 26.8" (1914)

5. 25.8" (1962)

6. 25.2" (1948)

7. 24.4" (1940)

8. 23.7" (1980)

9. 22.8" (1947)

10. 22.2" (1967)

11. 21.8" (1987)

12. 21.5" (1983)

13. 20.2" (2010)

14. 20.0" (1965)

15. 19.8" (1979)

16. 19.3" (1907)

17. 18.4" (1964)

18. 17.0" (1904)

19. 16.3" (1936)

20. 15.8" (1934)

[RIC Airport]

Nice post, I may composite the years in the next couple of days. I thought you were in Colorado, are you back in Richmond or did my memory gor completely old on me.

Wes,

I'm moving from Colorado to Richmond next month where I'll stay until July for work. So I'll be there for late winter and hopefully I see a good storm.

[usedtobe]

Wes,

I'm moving from Colorado to Richmond next month where I'll stay until July for work. So I'll be there for late winter and hopefully I see a good storm.

I hope you get a good one. With the AO likely to be more negative than positive this winter, there's a decent shot at a decent storm or two though in our neck of the woods we could also just end up unlucky..

[WhiteoutWX]

Here are the years with the most Richmond snow February 1st or later. The top 4 were huge March years.

1. 28.6" (1960)

2. 26.8" (1914)

3. 22.8" (1947)

4. 22.0" (1980)

5. 21.4" (1983)

6. 19.5" (1979)

7. 18.4" (1964)

8. 17.4" (1962)

9. 17.1" (1967)

10. 16.2" (1907)

11. 15.8" (1934)

12. 14.0" (1958)

13. 13.7" (1972)

14. 13.6" (1989)

15. 13.4" (1906)

16. 13.3" (1936)

17. 12.7" (1912)

18. 12.5" (1910)

19. 11.9" (1969) and (1915)

20. 11.0" (1982), (1971) and (1952)

None since the 80's

[Kevin Druff]

I'm surprised 1993 isn't on that list. Did RIC really do that poorly in the March storm? I received about 20" in Staunton, but we switched to sleet and even rain for a short time during that storm.

[RIC Airport]

I'm surprised 1993 isn't on that list. Did RIC really do that poorly in the March storm? I received about 20" in Staunton, but we switched to sleet and even rain for a short time during that storm.

The 1993 total is 9.3". And RIC received 3.5" from the March 1993 storm as it was primarily a rain event with 50mph winds with snow at the onset and with the backlash. If I remember correctly, most of the 3.5" was from the backlash.

[MidlothianWX]

I'm surprised 1993 isn't on that list. Did RIC really do that poorly in the March storm? I received about 20" in Staunton, but we switched to sleet and even rain for a short time during that storm.

4-8" for Midlothian and Short Pump...not as bad as I would have thought.

[MidlothianWX]

Had some fog here this morning...looks like it will last through the night. 72 tomorrow...gross.

[MidlothianWX]

Always just a week away...