Ajdos Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Honestly I've been following DT (wxrisk) for a long long time, like 6+ years, even longer, and he is always spot on with his forecasts. He knows his stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 DT's just updated on FB *** WEATHER MODEL OVERNIGHT DO A MASSIVE FLIP FLOP ... REMOVE ANY WINTER STORM TREAT / COLD FOR EASTERN IS DEC 15-25..maybe TO DEC 30 ** Yup. Sounds about right. Given the capitulation on the guidance during the last 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Yup. Sounds about right. Given the capitulation on the guidance during the last 36hrs. DT did mentioned many times in Nov that Dec will be mild, and not cold, as some have been predicting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 He also said this: is this massive model flip flop correct? I dont know... sometime I love and hate this profession all at the same time. The models are something else Heres DTs winter forecast http://mysite.verizo...aqbof/id55.html So, more or less a back loaded winter by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 So, more or less a back loaded winter by the looks of it. Per him, more or less. Thats actually my preference over front-loaded, but I still need snow at Christmas. It would be crazy if February panned out because we have been in an epic stretch of Februarys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Not sure if anyone saw DT's latest video. When he discusses the rest of the winter his entire premise that January and February will turnaround is based on a continuing dramatic rise in the QBO which was strongly negative for quite awhile. He shows some pretty strong evidence of past winters in which the QBO began to rise from strongly negative values in the fall and thru Dec and how those Decembers were warm and switched to cold in Jan and Feb. It was a good video, but it just seemed odd that he was throwing all his eggs into one big indice basket. It was his only argument, (that and the Oct. euroasia snowcover pardigym). I can't help to wonder if that is also a convenient out. IOW, if the QBO numbers next month flatten out or fall, and Jan and Feb torch, he can say see I told you so. If the QBO numbers rise and we have a good Jan and Feb he can say see I told you so. If the QBO numbers fall and we still have a good Jan and Feb no one will care why, and his original forecast holds. Kinda brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 JB, DT and DS. Most are well respected. But in the end.. Ultra LR is rolling the dice. Speculation at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I was watching DT's videos today... and he does have a point about how the QBO needs to trend towards neutral (which it is doing) in order to slow down the Pacific Jet. So the jet will stop pushing cold air off into the Atlantic. IMO that's the index to watch this month. And I'm wondering if B. Andersen's maps today have something to do with the change in that index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 DT was totally trashing JB on his Facebook page today. I wonder if those two have a rivalry? Problem with DT's outlook is that he includes December 1970 in his comparison to this December. The two months couldn't have been more different, at least up in Ontario, Quebec and northern New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DT was totally trashing JB on his Facebook page today. I wonder if those two have a rivalry? Problem with DT's outlook is that he includes December 1970 in his comparison to this December. The two months couldn't have been more different, at least up in Ontario, Quebec and northern New York. I think so. If you ever see JB mention the "Virginia Vigilante", he is referring to DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 DT and JB go back years with their disdain for each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 DT and JB go back years with their disdain for each other. Really? What does it stem from? They actually both come across as over-the-top, although DTs forecasts and videos are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 i never realized those two had a rivalry. Thats some funny stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Here is what JB has for December temps. I don't know if he is referencing C or F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Here is what JB has for December temps. I don't know if he is referencing C or F. Well, given how mild this December has been thus far, I think we can pretty much guarantee that this won't verify. It would take a Siberian express to give us this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I used to "like" JB on Facebook, but he is totally unreadable, and one time I challenged one of his many posts ranting about how cold and snowy the pattern is looking, and I found I was unable to respond to his posts after that. Therefore, I decided to rid myself of his East Coast weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Even JBs own son challenges him openly on Fbook. His son Garret knows his ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 His son Garret knows his ****. Not so much. He's nearly a carbon copy of his father the majority of the time, as far as hyping things and trying to be the first one to call everything goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I have been occasionally looking at Ryan Maue and Jim Cantore on twitter. Ryan posts lots of images from the weatherbell models page. Both make for interesting reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 DT is calling for a major cooldown following the late week storm. Looks frigid on Christmas Eve/Day with lake effect snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Looks like JB is set to horribly bust on his December call. The anomalies as of the 15th continue to scorch access the Conus. I think some places can get back down around normal or below. But at least half the CONUS is gonna be 5F or warmer. At least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 JB was super excited about the cold out break around X-Mas. I wonder what his tweets will consist of today. Maybe more Europe cold talk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 DT is calling for a major cooldown following the late week storm. Looks frigid on Christmas Eve/Day with lake effect snow too. Has DT seen the 00z euro.... far west cutter...huge ridge in east. Downright TORCH. He has been just as bad as jb this season. He flip-flopped on this coming weeks storm about 4 times. Basically riding each model run to futility and embarassment. As far as JB goes....there are simply are no words to describe his forecasting failure this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Has DT seen the 00z euro.... far west cutter...huge ridge in east. Downright TORCH. He has been just as bad as jb this season. He flip-flopped on this coming weeks storm about 4 times. Basically riding each model run to futility and embarassment. As far as JB goes....there are simply are no words to describe his forecasting failure this month. These past two winters are exposing these meteorologist. Cannot be good for business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 These past two winters are exposing these meteorologist. Cannot be good for business even DonS. looks to go down in flames this month. When are these mets going to learn, if you are going to roll the dice, you have a much better chance of putting all your chips on torch vs. snow/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Just a friendly reminder....JB about a week ago.... "For the nation as a whole, it is unlikely that you or I will ever see this kind of set up around the time of the holidays again, where almost everyone north of I 20 has a shot, and the center from west to east is along I 70. I will be darn if being a few days late ( if its snowing already in the northeast next week at this time, are you really going to be upset) is going to get me to back away. I may be wrong, but quite literally that is not what the modeling is saying at all. to quote Adam Sandler ( BTW happy Hanukkah to all my Jewish friends...consider these maps a snowy shalom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 These past two winters are exposing these meteorologist. Cannot be good for business This. Have you noticed how JB has become infinitely worse since he moved to Weatherbell. And that is a start up company!! The company's first two winter forecasts turning out to be busts. Basically shows how it's not good to have business that relies on accurate weather forecasting. Weather is an incomplete science and you really roll the dice with forecasts. At the rate they're going, weatherbell is going to lose more and more subscribers as people are just not going to pay for continually bad forecasts. Just a friendly reminder....JB about a week ago.... "For the nation as a whole, it is unlikely that you or I will ever see this kind of set up around the time of the holidays again, where almost everyone north of I 20 has a shot, and the center from west to east is along I 70. I will be darn if being a few days late ( if its snowing already in the northeast next week at this time, are you really going to be upset) is going to get me to back away. I may be wrong, but quite literally that is not what the modeling is saying at all. to quote Adam Sandler ( BTW happy Hanukkah to all my Jewish friends...consider these maps a snowy shalom) His forecasts are becoming a joke. Even the UK is nowhere near as cold as he was hyping it to be a couple of weeks go. He is so determined to disprove AGW that he forecasts cold all the time. This is going to end up like 2001-2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Bastardi update on FB Midwest monster to release the hounds. ECMWF has snowstorm in Chicago now along with MKE later in week. winter is coming this year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Bastardi update on FB Midwest monster to release the hounds. ECMWF has snowstorm in Chicago now along with MKE later in week. winter is coming this year!! lol... I wonder if he's retrofitted those goal posts with an engine yet. Be a hell of a lot easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Americanwx's, HM's epic chicago pattern uncancelled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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