JB, DT and Other Banter Thread

[Ottawa Blizzard]

....unless it's to conclude snow and cold.

Personally, I'm not a warminista, but I'm gonna be real about what i see going on. I know all about indices and what they mean and where they're forecasted to go, but quite honestly whether indices or enso, the outcomes seem to be inconsistent to what we would normally expect. Right now we are in a pattern wrt the modelling where the long range looks better until it approaches and beomes the mid range and short range. I remember last week, I was going to make a post at how the long range gfs was reminding me of Dec. '89 because of the incredibly broad deep trough it had...almost coast to coast deep arctic air and cross polar flow, (this would have been for next week).

DT made a great point in his update yesterday or Sunday. He basically said everyone wants to embrace a fantasy longterm outbreak of severe winter weather, while ignoring the actual, and more impressive warmth we are currently experiencing.

As I type this, pouring rain and near 60...Dec4th...that use to be unusual and for some reason it almost seems normal now.

Good post. I agree entirely. It really does seem that eastern north America, particularly the further north you go in latitude has been locked into a warm winter pattern for the past few years (with the exception of late January 2011). It used to be that getting temperatures of 60F was exceptional at this time of year. Recently, I've come to expect it. Regionally our climate is much warmer, particularly, it has to be said in Canada.

As for the bolded paragraph, I think we all know to whom DT was referring. JB has been a disaster since he moved to Weatherbell. Seriously, if their winter forecast busts this year, it can't be good for them keeping clients. DT even made reference to how many of the clients commenting on JBs posts have been wondering where this severe cold air he keeps hinting at is. It must be reaching the stage where they are becoming increasingly incredulous at his forecasts. Not saying JB is a bad person or even met in general. Just saying that his forecasts have becoming too political.

[magoos0728]

Good post. I agree entirely. It really does seem that eastern north America, particularly the further north you go in latitude has been locked into a warm winter pattern for the past few years (with the exception of late January 2011). It used to be that getting temperatures of 60F was exceptional at this time of year. Recently, I've come to expect it. Regionally our climate is much warmer, particularly, it has to be said in Canada.

As for the bolded paragraph, I think we all know to whom DT was referring. JB has been a disaster since he moved to Weatherbell. Seriously, if their winter forecast busts this year, it can't be good for them keeping clients. DT even made reference to how many of the clients commenting on JBs posts have been wondering where this severe cold air he keeps hinting at is. It must be reaching the stage where they are becoming increasingly incredulous at his forecasts. Not saying JB is a bad person or even met in general. Just saying that his forecasts have becoming too political.

JB's bread and butter is playing up the anti-climate change story to those who will buy it...namely Fox News. I begin to wonder a few things: Is he making money off of appearances on the show? Does he gain something out of constantly appearing opposite Bill Nye the Science Guy and calling him a buffoon? Does he want to take Captain Planet down to the mats?

I'm also beginning to wonder if because of his stance on the changes we've been living with, he's in too deep and cannot change course. Can you imagine if the man ever acknowledged that climate change was something to look into?

[illinois]

JB's last good winter forecast was 2009-10 I think. He went warm in 2010-11 and lost. Went cold last year and lost. I wouldn't take JB to seriously with the political stuff, anymore than I would Al Gore. Both guys have their financiers and money interest. They serve their capitalist overlords and do the PR work.

JB called for cold winters all the time in the late 90's(and busted). He is a entertainer first.

JB is the prime example of why weather warnings and public infromation should remain in the hands of the government. To much of a chance for hype.

[michsnowfreak]

Good post. I agree entirely. It really does seem that eastern north America, particularly the further north you go in latitude has been locked into a warm winter pattern for the past few years (with the exception of late January 2011). It used to be that getting temperatures of 60F was exceptional at this time of year. Recently, I've come to expect it. Regionally our climate is much warmer, particularly, it has to be said in Canada.

As for the bolded paragraph, I think we all know to whom DT was referring. JB has been a disaster since he moved to Weatherbell. Seriously, if their winter forecast busts this year, it can't be good for them keeping clients. DT even made reference to how many of the clients commenting on JBs posts have been wondering where this severe cold air he keeps hinting at is. It must be reaching the stage where they are becoming increasingly incredulous at his forecasts. Not saying JB is a bad person or even met in general. Just saying that his forecasts have becoming too political.

You have said this before, and I have to disagree. Now, I dont know how to find anomaly maps for Canada, but for the U.S., temps were at or below normal (depending which set of normals you use) for everyone in the eastern half of the country except far northern New england in the 4 winters PRIOR to last year. We were locked in a warm winter pattern SO FAR for 1 year, not several years. It may continue, it may not. This winter has began with a hearty torch, but meteorologically speaking winter is 4 days old and 90 days long, so way too early to speculate anything. I hear this all the time, you can get great winters til you are blue in the face, you get one stinker and everyone is saying "the last few years..." when they really should only be referring to last year (i do understand you guys in Toronto are in more of a funk, Im talking the region in general). My neighbor said something the other day about how we always used to have snow by now when he was a kid. He was a kid in the '90s, when winters were WAY milder and WAY less snowy than now . It will never change though.

Also....Im very curious about saying you come to expect 60F temps this time of year. I dont think they are any more or less common now than they have ever been. I just did a thread on the history of Detroits winter days at 60+ fwiw.

As for your 2nd paragraph...I agree. JB and Brett Anderson are two "mets" - on opposite ends of the spectrum - whos forecasts I can NEVER take seriously.

[Jonger]

Good post. I agree entirely. It really does seem that eastern north America, particularly the further north you go in latitude has been locked into a warm winter pattern for the past few years (with the exception of late January 2011). It used to be that getting temperatures of 60F was exceptional at this time of year. Recently, I've come to expect it. Regionally our climate is much warmer, particularly, it has to be said in Canada.

As for the bolded paragraph, I think we all know to whom DT was referring. JB has been a disaster since he moved to Weatherbell. Seriously, if their winter forecast busts this year, it can't be good for them keeping clients. DT even made reference to how many of the clients commenting on JBs posts have been wondering where this severe cold air he keeps hinting at is. It must be reaching the stage where they are becoming increasingly incredulous at his forecasts. Not saying JB is a bad person or even met in general. Just saying that his forecasts have becoming too political.

Heres how DJF 2001-2011 match up against the 30 year average. You can pretty much shave 0.10 to 0.25 off of every region, the NCDC adjusts almost ALL numbers upward. Most locations are slightly below or slightly above, nothing you would notice in statistics.

[michsnowfreak]

Heres how DJF 2001-2011 match up against the 30 year average. You can pretty much shave 0.10 to 0.25 off of every region, the NCDC adjusts almost ALL numbers upward. Most locations are slightly below or slightly above, nothing you would notice in statistics.

Thats an 11-year average bookended by very mild winters. the 10 year average is seen below...and below that is the 9 year span from 2002-03 through 2010-11, VERY blue. And you are correct, the NCDC does indeed adjust numbers upward.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

You have said this before, and I have to disagree. Now, I dont know how to find anomaly maps for Canada, but for the U.S., temps were at or below normal (depending which set of normals you use) for everyone in the eastern half of the country except far northern New england in the 4 winters PRIOR to last year. We were locked in a warm winter pattern SO FAR for 1 year, not several years. It may continue, it may not. This winter has began with a hearty torch, but meteorologically speaking winter is 4 days old and 90 days long, so way too early to speculate anything. I hear this all the time, you can get great winters til you are blue in the face, you get one stinker and everyone is saying "the last few years..." when they really should only be referring to last year (i do understand you guys in Toronto are in more of a funk, Im talking the region in general). My neighbor said something the other day about how we always used to have snow by now when he was a kid. He was a kid in the '90s, when winters were WAY milder and WAY less snowy than now . It will never change though.

Also....Im very curious about saying you come to expect 60F temps this time of year. I dont think they are any more or less common now than they have ever been. I just did a thread on the history of Detroits winter days at 60+ fwiw.

As for your 2nd paragraph...I agree. JB and Brett Anderson are two "mets" - on opposite ends of the spectrum - whos forecasts I can NEVER take seriously.

I can agree with much of what you're saying. However, Environment Canada said last week that the last time Canada as a whole had a below average winter was 15 years ago (they must mean 1996-97 or 1995-96 given 15 years ago was the 97-98 El Nino). The only two below average winters that I can remember from the past 15 years are 2002-2003 and 2008-2009. 2007-2008 was very snowy, but temperatures were above average as a whole. 2003-2004 had the brutal January, but December was mild.

That being said, I agree that it's a joke when people say that winters in the 80s and 90s were consistently snowier and colder than today. In fact, just today when I was out walking I overheard two people talking, with saying that she could remember when snow was consistently a foot or so deep in winter in Toronto. Ridiculous! For one thing, Toronto has never been a snowy city by Canadian standards. Never has been, never will be. Someone should do a professional psychological study of people's memories with regard to weather. Every generation says that winters were tougher when they were younger. Old timers probably said the same thing 100 years ago.

Yes, Brett Anderson and JB are annoying. Must have been interesting in the accuweather office when they worked together. Anderson is totally in the bag for AGW and sees warmth everywhere while JB seems to call for a cold winter every year. What gets be about JB is that he hypes up cold then when it doesn't happen he says something to the tune of "I was never calling for a repeat of 1976-77" when anyone reading his tweets or blogs would swear that was the case.

[Dsnowx53]

I have decided to create this thread so that people can continue their JB, DT, and other banter discussions in order to keep the storm thread clean.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Hopefully this will be the last torch of the winter.

1951 saw mild temperatures to start off the month, but then a snow blitz began.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

JB continues to say that we're simply in another warm cycle, as does Joe D'Aleo aka Dr. Dewpoint.

[michsnowfreak]

I can agree with much of what you're saying. However, Environment Canada said last week that the last time Canada as a whole had a below average winter was 15 years ago (they must mean 1996-97 or 1995-96 given 15 years ago was the 97-98 El Nino). The only two below average winters that I can remember from the past 15 years are 2002-2003 and 2008-2009. 2007-2008 was very snowy, but temperatures were above average as a whole. 2003-2004 had the brutal January, but December was mild.

That being said, I agree that it's a joke when people say that winters in the 80s and 90s were consistently snowier and colder than today. In fact, just today when I was out walking I overheard two people talking, with saying that she could remember when snow was consistently a foot or so deep in winter in Toronto. Ridiculous! For one thing, Toronto has never been a snowy city by Canadian standards. Never has been, never will be. Someone should do a professional psychological study of people's memories with regard to weather. Every generation says that winters were tougher when they were younger. Old timers probably said the same thing 100 years ago.

Yes, Brett Anderson and JB are annoying. Must have been interesting in the accuweather office when they worked together. Anderson is totally in the bag for AGW and sees warmth everywhere while JB seems to call for a cold winter every year. What gets be about JB is that he hypes up cold then when it doesn't happen he says something to the tune of "I was never calling for a repeat of 1976-77" when anyone reading his tweets or blogs would swear that was the case.

That would be an excellent study. And yes, it does not matter the time or the place, people in northern climates (who do not follow the weather) ALWAYS say winters of their youth were harsher. This is certainly nothing new. In my collection of old newspaper articles on weather events, I have 3 pieces that bring this exact subject to fruition. Now, I am paraphrasing as I dont have them in front of me for the exact quote. But this will give you the idea.

#1- A January 1977 Detroit Free Press story on the brutal winter the region was experiencing had a quote from a woman in her 70s who said something like "the problem with you people today is you can't handle winter. This is NOTHING, winters today are NOTHING like they were when I was a girl". While there was plenty of snow on the ground, this article was more concentrating on the cold. Funny, weather record show this winter was and still is Detroits 3rd coldest winter on record.

#2- A March 1954 Detroit Free Press story on the heavy snowfall the region was experiencing (it was not a big snowstorm per say, but two decent storms (6.6" and 4.6") just 2 days apart...and trust me this was smack dab in the middle of the most frugal 30-year period Detroit has ever seen for snowfall...but I digress lol). The story had a cartoon drawing of an old man crawling out of the chimney because the house is buried in snow, and he is telling his grandkids about winters back in his day. "You youngsters don't KNOW snow" and the whole story was basically a mockery of the exaggerations old-timers had when referring to the weather. I LOVED IT because it was and still is SO true (old-timers tales had a LITTLE more skin back then simply because we actually WERE in a snow drought, unlike today...but still complete nonsense). . The story ended with "but alas, someday when we are grandparents, we may be telling the same fancy tales about the winter of '54".

#3 - The April 7, 1886 Detroit Free Press described the incredible blizzard that just buried Detroit in over 2 feet of heavy, wet spring snow. It brought mention of how "the oldest inhabitant continuously belittled the storm, referring to the much harsher storms of the 1850s, '60s, and '70s....but younger citizens proclaimed to the graybeards they want none of it".

So there you have it...a timeline from the 1880s to the 2010s in how it doesnt matter what the weather stats show, it always used to snow more when joe blow was a kid. Whats funny...when I put aside all my weather stats and stuff, I can remember winters of the '90s and there was a CLEAR difference between today. What I considered deep snow back then was like 5-6". Now its 10"+. Also, any snow before Christmas was a bonus, as I always thought of winters staying power didnt happen until January.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Thats an 11-year average bookended by very mild winters. the 10 year average is seen below...and below that is the 9 year span from 2002-03 through 2010-11, VERY blue. And you are correct, the NCDC does indeed adjust numbers upward.

In Climatology using the 1981-2010 baseline really skews the data. Since at least globally Basically 80% or so of those years are the warmest on record.

Using the 105 years from 1895-2000 to include the previous warm AMO cycles. Yeah leaving out the brutal torch that is 2011-2012 Winter does make a difference. But not near of one when you judge it against a much larger sample size where the main trend over that 105 years has been warming up quite a bit. But does show how warm things have been over a big portion of the USA during the time, which is also the region nearly all of our cold spells come from.

When we look at November using the same time frame we can see most of us have seen a huge warm period. And starting in 2002 brings down the actual scope of the warmth. November 2012 is not out yet or I would of included it. It was very warm though for a large part of the CONUS with a colder Eastern 1/3rd, exp South Eastern.

When we include March for the same time frame, like the other fringe month on November. They are both basically coast huge anomaly's. In the 1991-2020 climo these months will go up to probably record levels for a lot of places, like many other periods during Summer as well.

By no means do I think Snow is going to be effected, especially along and North of 40N, other regions South of there will likely struggle more and more. Unless this can reverse, it's pretty damn pronounced, especially during November and March. Many places warm up another 2-4F from this and those month's will start to lose all feel of winter whatsoever.

Anyway's, I think places like SEMI to the North and West will see some big time snow years, some probably breaking historical all time records or in the top 5 over the next 10 years at least. But I would expects some very brutal snow cover years creeping there way North.

I am trying to show this as best as I can from what it was VS how it has been. I can't think of a better way temp wise than using climo from the entire record 105-106 years excluding the change, so we can see the change VS 100+ years of data to cover "natural" cycles".

Some of us have seen some major changes the last decade, expecially in Nov and March.

[Jonger]

The last decade is pretty much 0.0 to 0.5 above the 100 year average through most of the subforum. Looks like a few spots are around +1.0.... Funny that St. Louis and Detroit are one of the few spots to not warm.

Jon

[michsnowfreak]

In Climatology using the 1981-2010 baseline really skews the data.

Anyway's, I think places like SEMI to the North and West will see some big time snow years, some probably breaking historical all time records or in the top 5 over the next 10 years at least.

I used the 1981-2010 normals because my post had nothing to do with anything longterm. I was commenting on a post that we have been stuck in a rut of warm winters the last few years. There is no better set of normals to use for such a period, which basically shows that the last 10 winters (8-9 of which are INCLUDED in the 1981-2010 norms) are COLDER than the 1981-2010 normal for most places, which implies that we certainly have NOT been stuck in a warm rut the past few years. If anything we have been COLDER than most of the years the previous two decades.

And I hope your right about the snow comment.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

JB points out that 70% of the northern hemisphere's landmass is colder than average at the moment and, judging by his tweets, is frustrated that people aren't taking this into account. Does he have a point?

[Jonger]

JB points out that 70% of the northern hemisphere's landmass is colder than average at the moment and, judging by his tweets, is frustrated that people aren't taking this into account. Does he have a point?

The arctic waters are above normal and some by a large amount, but land is running well below normal. It looks amazing to see +10C arctic ocean (air) temps right next to -10 land temps.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

DTs take on the upcoming pattern:

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Well, it looks like Bastardi's forecast for a below average December for the east ( -2F!) Is literally going to go up in flames. Weatherbell's first two winter forecasts end up being disasters. Can't be good for a start-up company that needs to win clients.

[michsnowfreak]

Nice vid. I didnt picture DT as sounding like that

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Nice vid. I didnt picture DT as sounding like that

Yeah, he sounds very civil in the video, unlike his tone on Facebook and on this board (or at least eastern) in the past.

[Hoosier]

DT is pretty funny and nice in person. Something happens over the internet though lol

[Chicago WX]

Is the video SFW (language)?

[buckeye]

DT's just updated on FB

*** WEATHER MODEL OVERNIGHT DO A MASSIVE FLIP FLOP ... REMOVE ANY WINTER STORM TREAT / COLD FOR EASTERN IS DEC 15-25..maybe TO DEC 30 **

[hm8]

DT's just updated on FB

*** WEATHER MODEL OVERNIGHT DO A MASSIVE FLIP FLOP ... REMOVE ANY WINTER STORM TREAT / COLD FOR EASTERN IS DEC 15-25..maybe TO DEC 30 **

[Geos]

Right now looks like all the states out east are going to have to wait awhile for snow. (per EURO) Some hope in our subforum especially west and north.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

DT's just updated on FB

*** WEATHER MODEL OVERNIGHT DO A MASSIVE FLIP FLOP ... REMOVE ANY WINTER STORM TREAT / COLD FOR EASTERN IS DEC 15-25..maybe TO DEC 30 **

Yeah, I saw that too. Can't say I'm all that surprised. His client base seems to be in the northeast and Mid-Atlantic though, so i'm not quite sure what that means for us. Recall that 2007-2008 was a torch for the mid-atlantic but a snow bonanza for the Great lakes and Midwest.

Right now looks like all the states out east are going to have to wait awhile for snow. (per EURO) Some hope in our subforum especially west and north.

How are southern and eastern Ontario, along with WNY looking as per the Euro?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

DT is pretty funny and nice in person. Something happens over the internet though lol

Funny how he talks about JB in the comment section of his FB page. Says that anyone who thinks JB is going to be right about the pattern "needs medication"!

[Amped]

DT did well On SV. There are too many trolling temptations for him here though.

[Geos]

Yeah, I saw that too. Can't say I'm all that surprised. His client base seems to be in the northeast and Mid-Atlantic though, so i'm not quite sure what that means for us. Recall that 2007-2008 was a torch for the mid-atlantic but a snow bonanza for the Great lakes and Midwest.

How are southern and eastern Ontario, along with WNY looking as per the Euro?

Through 240hours. Seasonable - Thursday, then mild Friday - Sunday, brief cool down Monday, then mild Tuesday in response to storm over western subforum area.

[michsnowfreak]

Yeah, I saw that too. Can't say I'm all that surprised. His client base seems to be in the northeast and Mid-Atlantic though, so i'm not quite sure what that means for us. Recall that 2007-2008 was a torch for the mid-atlantic but a snow bonanza for the Great lakes and Midwest.

How are southern and eastern Ontario, along with WNY looking as per the Euro?

He also said this: is this massive model flip flop correct? I dont know... sometime I love and hate this profession all at the same time.

The models are something else

Heres DTs winter forecast

http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/id55.html