Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December

[BuffaloWeather]

Any Mets have anything to say about the 2 storms coming out this week. I see most OP and Ensembles show the first low being quite weak but almost all show a similar track into Ohio then northeast which would keep us on the cold side and all of WNY should receive a few inches of snow.

The farther out storm seems to be all over the place with the models, the GFS seems like the best hit for us while the Euro and Ensembles track it to far near the coast. Majority of GFS ensembles also follow the Euro track which would not be good for this area. The GEM agrees with the Euro as well. The 18Z NAM has positioning similar to the OP GFS. Should be interesting one to track!

HPC clusters:

[wolfie09]

Euro

KUCA

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -3.6    -2.0    1022	  63	  57    0.00	 556	 538   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -3.8    -3.2    1014	  81	 100    0.23	 554	 543   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -3.1    -4.6    1004	  86	  96    0.53	 547	 543   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -0.2    -0.3	 997	  88	  57    0.09	 538	 540   
THU 18Z 27-DEC   0.2    -2.6	 997	  94	  99    0.06	 536	 538

KALB

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -1.6    -2.7    1024	  48	  43    0.00	 558	 539   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -2.2    -3.5    1018	  78	  99    0.14	 557	 543   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -0.9    -4.1    1006	  89	  98    0.40	 550	 546   
THU 12Z 27-DEC   1.7	 1.5	 997	  90	  38    0.48	 540	 543   
THU 18Z 27-DEC   2.8	 0.3	 994	  90	  74    0.08	 536	 541

KSYR

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -2.4    -2.2    1020	  65	  66    0.00	 555	 539   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -2.7    -2.7    1013	  83	 100    0.25	 553	 543   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -1.7    -3.8    1003	  83	  99    0.47	 544	 542   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -0.2    -1.0	 997	  89	  83    0.04	 538	 540   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -1.3    -4.7    1000	  92	  99    0.11	 535	 536

[wolfie09]

Euro show about an inch on xmas morning, the nam 2-3" for kuca..

[wolfie09]

GFS xmas eve/xmas

TUE 00Z 25-DEC  -3.7    -5.1    1013	  93	  98    0.02	 543	 533   
TUE 06Z 25-DEC  -3.0    -4.5    1010	  95	  97    0.18	 537	 529   
TUE 12Z 25-DEC  -4.6    -7.7    1016	  96	  84    0.07	 539	 527

ALbany only has 20 percent chance of snow at the moment..

[SR Airglow]

So we go from little QPF and great temps to plenty of QPF and horrid temps. Now looks like the rain snow line goes all the way up to the dacks on the 18z? Thanks for all your clarifications it makes it alot easier to understand the models as I am just learning the ins and outs of them.

-skisheep

Edit: I did not see the 12z GFS maps, only read about them. Has the 18z been a big change? It looks to me like the rain snow line is north of 12z and is now just south of high peaks but not sure.

[wolfie09]

Gfs says, congrats rochester

WED 12Z 26-DEC  -6.1    -1.6    1019	  89	  54    0.00	 553	 538   
WED 18Z 26-DEC  -3.3    -3.8    1010	  97	 100    0.31	 548	 540   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -1.6    -1.4	 999	  94	  99    0.51	 538	 538   
THU 06Z 27-DEC   0.4    -1.9	 989	  97	  94    0.20	 530	 539

[wolfie09]

looks like some ice for kuca

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -3.4    -0.5    1013	  80	  99    0.01	 553	 542   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -3.2	 1.3    1001	  91	  95    0.37	 544	 544

[SR Airglow]

Could you put KSLK into the GFS and get an output like you are doing for BUF?

Thanks

-skisheep

[wolfie09]

SLK

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -6.0    -0.7    1019	  82	  50    0.00	 553	 539   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -6.7    -5.5    1012	  97	  97    0.45	 550	 541   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -4.7    -1.6	 997	  96	  96    0.14	 536	 538   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -1.5    -0.8	 989	  98	  96    0.08	 529	 538   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -0.7    -4.9	 990	  95	  99    0.09	 525	 534   
FRI 00Z 28-DEC  -4.5    -8.6	 997	  96	  87    0.07	 529	 532   
FRI 06Z 28-DEC  -9.4   -11.2    1003	  96	  89    0.04	 528	 526

[SR Airglow]

SLK

WED 18Z 26-DEC -6.0 -0.7 1019	 82	 50 0.00	 553	 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -6.7 -5.5 1012	 97	 97 0.45	 550	 541
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.7 -1.6	 997	 96	 96 0.14	 536	 538
THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.5 -0.8	 989	 98	 96 0.08	 529	 538
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.7 -4.9	 990	 95	 99 0.09	 525	 534
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -4.5 -8.6	 997	 96	 87 0.07	 529	 532
FRI 06Z 28-DEC -9.4 -11.2 1003	 96	 89 0.04	 528	 526

If I'm reading that correctly looks like ~.9 inches of QPF all snow? That would be sweet!

-skisheep

[wolfie09]

Sounds about right

SUN 00Z 23-DEC -11.3   -15.7	 124	   0    29016	 SN    0.04    0.67   
SUN 06Z 23-DEC -13.2   -14.7	 123	   0    27010	 SN    0.01    0.68   
SUN 12Z 23-DEC -12.0   -10.7	 125	   0    26006	 SN    0.00    0.68   
SUN 18Z 23-DEC  -3.7    -9.0	 128	 174    26007	 SN    0.03    0.71   
MON 00Z 24-DEC  -6.6   -10.5	 127	  18    30007	 SN    0.06    0.77   
MON 06Z 24-DEC -11.5   -13.9	 124	   0    26007	 SN    0.00    0.77   
MON 12Z 24-DEC -13.9   -11.7	 124	   0    23005		   0.00    0.77   
MON 18Z 24-DEC  -5.4    -9.9	 127	   0    23003		   0.00    0.77   
TUE 00Z 25-DEC  -7.2    -4.8	 127	   0    10004		   0.00    0.77   
TUE 06Z 25-DEC  -6.9    -7.6	 127	   0    07003	 SN    0.03    0.79   
TUE 12Z 25-DEC  -9.4    -8.9	 126	   0    00004	 SN    0.06    0.83   
TUE 18Z 25-DEC  -6.9    -8.6	 126	   0    31004	 SN    0.01    0.83   
WED 00Z 26-DEC -13.8    -7.2	 126	   0    29003	 SN    0.00    0.83   
WED 06Z 26-DEC -17.1    -4.5	 126	   0    12001		   0.00    0.83   
WED 12Z 26-DEC -12.2    -1.5	 127	 443    09004		   0.00    0.83   
WED 18Z 26-DEC  -6.0    -0.7	 128    2146    09007		   0.00    0.82   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -6.7    -5.5	 127	 185    08011	 SN    0.45    1.29   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -4.7    -1.6	 129    2279    09012	 SN    0.14    1.41   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -1.5    -0.8	 130    1327    11003	 SN    0.08    1.50   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -0.7    -4.9	 130    1442    23009	 SN    0.09    1.56   
FRI 00Z 28-DEC  -4.5    -8.6	 128	   0    26011	 SN    0.07    1.62   
FRI 06Z 28-DEC  -9.4   -11.2	 126	   0    27012	 SN    0.04    1.65   
FRI 12Z 28-DEC -12.3   -12.3	 124	   0    27011	 SN    0.03    1.67   
FRI 18Z 28-DEC -10.6   -12.5	 124	   0    27012	 SN    0.02    1.68   
SAT 00Z 29-DEC -12.2   -11.9	 124	   0    26007	 SN    0.01    1.68   
SAT 06Z 29-DEC -14.4   -12.1	 124	   0    25005	 SN    0.00    1.70   
SAT 12Z 29-DEC -17.7   -11.7	 124	   0    24004		   0.00    1.70   
SAT 18Z 29-DEC  -9.0   -11.5	 125		    26002		   0.00    1.70

[kulaginman]

So we go from little QPF and great temps to plenty of QPF and horrid temps. Now looks like the rain snow line goes all the way up to the dacks on the 18z? Thanks for all your clarifications it makes it alot easier to understand the models as I am just learning the ins and outs of them.

-skisheep

Edit: I did not see the 12z GFS maps, only read about them. Has the 18z been a big change? It looks to me like the rain snow line is north of 12z and is now just south of high peaks but not sure.

This is exactly why it is better to focus on the ensembles for events that are still several days away, rather than deal with the windshield wiper effect of the operational models. You'll drive yourself crazy if you live and die with each 12z/18z/00z/06z run.

Here is the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean with respect to h85 temperature and sea level pressure valid at 120 hours (12z Thursday):

Note the location of the surface low near NYC. When I was an operational forecaster in BGM, I plotted the track of each coastal storm analyzed by Kocin and Uccellini in their notorious "Northeast Snowstorms" publication (a must-have for any winter wx weenie)...and the majority of coastal storms that produce heavy snow in the BGM area have a track clustered somewhere near the NJ coast or NYC area. As a result, I would be inclined to think that the latest ECMWF ensemble mean would support the heaviest snowfall near I-81 in Central NY, with somewhat lesser amounts to the east and west.

Here is the 12z GFS ensemble mean, valid at the same time:

Note the position of the surface low is slightly east of the ECMWF mean...but the closed contour around the surface low takes on more of an oval shape, which indicates there may be a bit more spread among the individual members that compose the GFS ensemble suite. Either way, this would still infer that the heaviest snow is likely to fall over central and eastern parts of the state...with western New York likely located on the fringe (though accumulation could certainly still be significant).

I think it's way too early for anyone to write the storm off OR get overly excited, but I'm leaning toward more of a central/eastern NY hit rather than a western NY hit at this point.

[SR Airglow]

This is exactly why it is better to focus on the ensembles for events that are still several days away, rather than deal with the windshield wiper effect of the operational models. You'll drive yourself crazy if you live and die with each 12z/18z/00z/06z run.

Here is the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean with respect to h85 temperature and sea level pressure valid at 120 hours (12z Thursday):

Note the location of the surface low near NYC. When I was an operational forecaster in BGM, I plotted the track of each coastal storm analyzed by Kocin and Uccellini in their notorious "Northeast Snowstorms" publication (a must-have for any winter wx weenie)...and the majority of coastal storms that produce heavy snow in the BGM area have a track clustered somewhere near the NJ coast or NYC area. As a result, I would be inclined to think that the latest ECMWF ensemble mean would support the heaviest snowfall near I-81 in Central NY, with somewhat lesser amounts to the east and west.

Here is the 12z GFS ensemble mean, valid at the same time:

Note the position of the surface low is slightly east of the ECMWF mean...but the closed contour around the surface low takes on more of an oval shape, which indicates there may be a bit more spread among the individual members that compose the GFS ensemble suite. Either way, this would still infer that the heaviest snow is likely to fall over central and eastern parts of the state...with western New York likely located on the fringe (though accumulation could certainly still be significant).

I think it's way too early for anyone to write the storm off OR get overly excited, but I'm leaning toward more of a central/eastern NY hit rather than a western NY hit at this point.

Thanks for that insight, that makes much more sense than the often times schizophrenic operational runs. Is there a free site to view the ensemble means? That would make this much easier emotionally

Again, thanks to all for your insights and replies. Reading this forum teaches so much to a winter lover who never really understood how it all worked, and is fascinated to know just how much goes into what we see on TV.

-skisheep

[kulaginman]

This is the best website that I am aware of for viewing ensembles:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html

The PSU e-wall will let you see the individual members of the GFS ensemble suite:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html

[Gorizer]

But aren't the GFS and Euro ensembles implying a change to rain verbatim in the Albany area though? Pardon my ignorance, I'm an amateur's amateur when it comes to deciphering some of these maps.

This is exactly why it is better to focus on the ensembles for events that are still several days away, rather than deal with the windshield wiper effect of the operational models. You'll drive yourself crazy if you live and die with each 12z/18z/00z/06z run.

Here is the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean with respect to h85 temperature and sea level pressure valid at 120 hours (12z Thursday):

Note the location of the surface low near NYC. When I was an operational forecaster in BGM, I plotted the track of each coastal storm analyzed by Kocin and Uccellini in their notorious "Northeast Snowstorms" publication (a must-have for any winter wx weenie)...and the majority of coastal storms that produce heavy snow in the BGM area have a track clustered somewhere near the NJ coast or NYC area. As a result, I would be inclined to think that the latest ECMWF ensemble mean would support the heaviest snowfall near I-81 in Central NY, with somewhat lesser amounts to the east and west.

Here is the 12z GFS ensemble mean, valid at the same time:

Note the position of the surface low is slightly east of the ECMWF mean...but the closed contour around the surface low takes on more of an oval shape, which indicates there may be a bit more spread among the individual members that compose the GFS ensemble suite. Either way, this would still infer that the heaviest snow is likely to fall over central and eastern parts of the state...with western New York likely located on the fringe (though accumulation could certainly still be significant).

I think it's way too early for anyone to write the storm off OR get overly excited, but I'm leaning toward more of a central/eastern NY hit rather than a western NY hit at this point.

[wolfie09]

Kalb for xmas

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF

THE LOW...ARE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM

INTERACTIONS THERE WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE USED A BLENDED

APPROACH MOVING THE LOW OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING JUST TO

THE OUR OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS TRACK HAVE ALL SNOW FOR

THE EVENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BASED ON CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE BELOW OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA SO NO

MENTION ON OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCHES

FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE BERKSHIRES

AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE MOHAWK

VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

[SR Airglow]

This is the best website that I am aware of for viewing ensembles:

http://www.americanw...hwx/models.html

The PSU e-wall will let you see the individual members of the GFS ensemble suite:

http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallmref.html

Great thanks!

-skisheep

[Logan11]

The 18Z GFS was the extreme west outlier so far. But even so, our area had mostly snow before some minor mix, etc. as we dry slotted.

It looks like I got about 1.5" from the lake effect today. All afternoon I was flirting with the good echoes which focused over western Albany County. Down toward Berne they probably did quite well....relatively speaking.

But aren't the GFS and Euro ensembles implying a change to rain verbatim in the Albany area though? Pardon my ignorance, I'm an amateur's amateur when it comes to deciphering some of these maps.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Snowing moderately here right now.

[DeltaT13]

Ontario is really coming alive right now.. Getting some bonus snow showers.

[cleetussnow]

Mid week storm could be the rare apps runner which is interesting for western ny. Surfc reflection is well east, so I wonder which side she goes.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Mid week storm could be the rare apps runner which is interesting for western ny. Surfc reflection is well east, so I wonder which side she goes.

ya but the 850 line reaches BUF so it def wont be all snow. Mixing is becoming an issue now :/

[Logan11]

I'm hoping we can refire it off Ontario overnight and get some more down this way before the flow back and take it into the Dacks.

Snowing moderately here right now.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I'm hoping we can refire it off Ontario overnight and get some more down this way before the flow back and take it into the Dacks.

still snowing moderatley. Nice fresh solid coating on everything. If this can keep up maybe we can swueeze out a surprise inch. Ill take it.

[wolfie09]

Ugly solution for cny on the 0z gfs..

KSYR

WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.3	 1.3 1014	 77	 96 0.00	 553	 542
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6	 0.2 1004	 91	 92 0.58	 548	 545

KUCA

WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.9	 2.4 1015	 74	 92 0.00	 554	 542
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.2	 0.5 1006	 91	 97 0.23	 550	 545
THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.4	 1.9	 994	 90	 94 0.04	 538	 543

GGEM

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2012122300/I_nw_g1_EST_2012122300_097.png

[Gorizer]

GFS continues the trend of moving the 27th storm further and further west. 0z looks pretty disappointing for eastern NY

The 18Z GFS was the extreme west outlier so far. But even so, our area had mostly snow before some minor mix, etc. as we dry slotted.

It looks like I got about 1.5" from the lake effect today. All afternoon I was flirting with the good echoes which focused over western Albany County. Down toward Berne they probably did quite well....relatively speaking.

[swva]

Primary low is so strong that it never transfers to the coastal low or at least its too late for many when it does. I still like this solution for CNY, WNY, and the Tug Hill. A little shift to the east would be nice, but could be big snows next week with LES behind the storm.

[Logan11]

It still looked like mostly a front end thump of snow for us before lighter mixed precip. I didn't think it was any worse than 18Z. The people on the SNE thread are thinking the model should be reflecting more of a secondary formation than it is.

Ontario refiring I see .... last chance before the stuff all shifts north into the Dacks tomorrow.

Xmas Eve looks minor but a fluffy inch or two window dressing probably.

GFS continues the trend of moving the 27th storm further and further west. 0z looks pretty disappointing for eastern NY

[kulaginman]

ya but the 850 line reaches BUF so it def wont be all snow. Mixing is becoming an issue now :/

There was definitely a westward shift on the 18z GFS ensemble mean, but the op solution seems a bit extreme IMO. The ensemble mean had the surface low over Allentown PA at 06z Thursday while the op solution has the low over State College. More importantly, the euro ensembles had the low over NYC and I have a lot more faith in the euro than I do the GFS at this time range.

Some pretty big storms showing up on the CIPS analog product still...including 12/26/02, 1/4/03, and 12/31/00 (which was actually a KU event). 12/26/02 and 1/4/03 were massive storms for the I-88 corridor between BGM and ALB with close to 40" observed in Otsego County, and the 12/31/00 event dumped up to 29" in Greene County with widespread 10-20" amounts in the lower to mid Hudson Valley. The signal is definitely there for something big.

For now, I still think there is a better chance of this storm missing Western NY to the east than there is a threat of mixing. We'll see how the 00z GFS ensembles and, more importantly, the euro ensembles trend tonight.

[BuffaloWeather]

Snowing harder now here then it was during the "Winter Storm Warning", if this keeps up overnight, we may end up with a few inches out of this. Roads already covered.