SR Airglow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks pretty good. ROC to SYR on into the 'Dacks jackpot. Dryslot shuts the snow down early, but back-end snows as the upper level low swings through. Looks like at least 4-8" for all NY state outside of NYC. Sweet I'm going to be at whiteface 28th-31st you just made my afternoon! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Interesting storm as if you followed the lowest pressure via the reporting stations, the center traveled from around Montgomery (Orange Cty.) at 29.05, getting a bit deeper to Albany (28.98) and to Glens Falls (28.93). Went right up the thruway and onto the Northway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Went from 56 degrees with 55 mph gusts this morning to flurries now down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Went from 56 degrees with 55 mph gusts this morning to flurries now down here. Cold air advection here dropping temperatures from a high of 52 around 11 AM to 39 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro total snowfall through hr 156, posted by henry margusity on his FB..(10-1 ratios) http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=181434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 snowing like a boss in OP even at my work at 740 ft.starting to cover everything. gonna be a fun night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I should mention that as winds begin to back tomorrow night, the fetch across both lakes (but particularly Lake Ontario) will become more favorable for some single band LES. I'm starting to wonder if those of you reading from the Syracuse area may actually get your best snow after the synoptic event is over, when winds become well-aligned from a WNW direction tomorrow night. I could see advisory snows in Syracuse between ~05z-13z Sunday. East of Lake Erie it doesn't look quite as favorable since we'll lose sufficient moisture in the dendritic growth layer and the inversion will be lowering with WAA. Something to watch though. Simulated radar at 7AM Sunday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The King City radar is fairly encouraging... http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just got home from work. The difference between my work on the OP/WS border at 740ft and where I am in OP at 850ft is crazy. When I left work it was raining with absolutley nothing even on the gr@ss and as I climed the hill it changed over to snow around 800 ft and its snowing pretty good at my house with a solid coating on the gr@ss and cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Are you mainly based down there in Orange County now? I just got back from three weeks of cold and snow in Europe (German and Poland mainly). I'll take some credit for this blocking that may have shifted back west from it's previous position n/w of Europe. 32 with off and on flurries here now. Went from 56 degrees with 55 mph gusts this morning to flurries now down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 About an inch of snow at home. At dark, there was no accumulation below 1500' and a couple inches over 2000'. Was pretty nice weather to stake snowmobile trails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So according to GFS dacks get nothing from 26th-27th(If I'm reading it correctly). How do other models look? Thanks -skisheep - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is a good hit at least for the southern 2/3rds. IMO, the GFS is entering its hour 72 to hour 120 suppression mode...so I'd ride the Euro. So according to GFS dacks get nothing from 26th-27th(If I'm reading it correctly). How do other models look? Thanks -skisheep - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So according to GFS dacks get nothing from 26th-27th(If I'm reading it correctly). How do other models look? Thanks -skisheep - Euro is a good hit at least for the southern 2/3rds. IMO, the GFS is entering its hour 72 to hour 120 suppression mode...so I'd ride the Euro. 18Z GFS is mostly a miss, still a few inches over the southern Adirondacks (Capital Region gets hit pretty hard). 12Z Euro was a pretty good hit for the Dacks for the 26-27th storm, with the low on the 24th more of a miss to the south. By the way, the top analogue on CIPS right now is 12/25/02: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F120&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18Z GFS is mostly a miss, still a few inches over the southern Adirondacks (Capital Region gets hit pretty hard). 12Z Euro was a pretty good hit for the Dacks for the 26-27th storm, with the low on the 24th more of a miss to the south. By the way, the top analogue on CIPS right now is 12/25/02: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F120&flg= Heres hoping the EURO is accurate! Snow always makes Whiteface so much more fun -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 You might run into the Gov Cuomo and his daughters. I heard him say on the radio he may go skiing for a few days at Whiteface after Christmas. Heres hoping the EURO is accurate! Snow always makes Whiteface so much more fun -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Snowing moderate to heavy now. Sticking to EVERYTHING. Roads have solid coating on them and its going downhill fast. Winds ramping up quite a bit too. Ill be driving from OP to Akron in about a half hour and ill be sure to keep you updated.its gonna be a scary drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 By the way, the top analogue on CIPS right now is 12/25/02: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F120&flg= I got about 2' from that storm, still the greatest snowfall I've seen. Hopefully the models maintain that look as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 You might run into the Gov Cuomo and his daughters. I heard him say on the radio he may go skiing for a few days at Whiteface after Christmas. Hopefully he brings the snow up from Albany with him! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Snowing moderate to heavy now. Sticking to EVERYTHING. Roads have solid coating on them and its going downhill fast. Winds ramping up quite a bit too. Ill be driving from OP to Akron in about a half hour and ill be sure to keep you updated.its gonna be a scary drive Radar looking much more impressive than it was a couple hours ago - nice snowy night shaping up for you guys. I tried calling the 'rents to get a report from up on the hill, but they must be out and about. It's looking like this event will be winding down by the time I land tomorrow morning (8:40 AM) so hopefully the Christmas morning system trends north a bit - I'd like to be home for an event! But at least things will be significantly whiter than they are here in MA where our high temp was 55F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm in oswego right now and still raining but few miles down the road. It's snowing. Crazy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just caught Don Paul's 6PM weathercast on the web, and he actually used the term "near blizzard conditions" to describe what he's anticipating in the open countryside away from the lakes late tonight. For whatever reason, the Buffalo media tends to shy away from using the "B" word (whereas it is grossly over-used here on the East Coast) but in this case it may very well be justified. He showed their inhouse RPM model which was projecting 50 mph gusts around 5AM, impressive considering that is about when the heaviest snow will be falling. NAM bufkit wind profiles are equally impressive around that timeframe. At KBUF it is projecting 40kts at 1k feet, 45kts at 2k feet, and 50kts at 3k feet. At JHW the winds are about 10kts stronger at the same time (50kts at 1k, 55kts at 2k, 60kts at 3k). That's not very far off the deck, and momentum transfer should be pretty good with CAA occuring at the time. The snow, while very wet and sticky at the moment, will be transitioning to a more powdery type snow as the night progresses...especially in the higher terrain of southern Erie, Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Chautauqua Counties where temperatures will likely dip into the mid 20s late tonight. Given those wind profiles and the fact that this is a synoptic scale rather than a lake effect event, I think the NWS would be justified in replacing the winter storm warnings with blizzard warnings. 8-13" of snow, 50 mph gusts, and temperatures in the mid 20s - yeah, that's a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just caught Don Paul's 6PM weathercast on the web, and he actually used the term "near blizzard conditions" to describe what he's anticipating in the open countryside away from the lakes late tonight. For whatever reason, the Buffalo media tends to shy away from using the "B" word (whereas it is grossly over-used here on the East Coast) but in this case it may very well be justified. He showed their inhouse RPM model which was projecting 50 mph gusts around 5AM, impressive considering that is about when the heaviest snow will be falling. NAM bufkit wind profiles are equally impressive around that timeframe. At KBUF it is projecting 40kts at 1k feet, 45kts at 2k feet, and 50kts at 3k feet. At JHW the winds are about 10kts stronger at the same time (50kts at 1k, 55kts at 2k, 60kts at 3k). That's not very far off the deck, and momentum transfer should be pretty good with CAA occuring at the time. The snow, while very wet and sticky at the moment, will be transitioning to a more powdery type snow as the night progresses...especially in the higher terrain of southern Erie, Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Chautauqua Counties where temperatures will likely dip into the mid 20s late tonight. Given those wind profiles and the fact that this is a synoptic scale rather than a lake effect event, I think the NWS would be justified in replacing the winter storm warnings with blizzard warnings. 8-13" of snow, 50 mph gusts, and temperatures in the mid 20s - yeah, that's a blizzard. Buffalo wouldnt put out a blizzard warning if there were 90 mph winds and 50 inches of snow. You know better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 14 inches and couting in ottawa as per the environment canada report looking at obs though, not sure that is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I should mention that as winds begin to back tomorrow night, the fetch across both lakes (but particularly Lake Ontario) will become more favorable for some single band LES. I'm starting to wonder if those of you reading from the Syracuse area may actually get your best snow after the synoptic event is over, when winds become well-aligned from a WNW direction tomorrow night. I could see advisory snows in Syracuse between ~05z-13z Sunday. East of Lake Erie it doesn't look quite as favorable since we'll lose sufficient moisture in the dendritic growth layer and the inversion will be lowering with WAA. Something to watch though. Simulated radar at 7AM Sunday: Agree Justin. The most impressive LES rates will very likely end up on Sun. night, near my area. Latest NAM has trended quite a bit stronger for all the lakes during that period, and shows a very well connected "3 lake connected superband".....We like those down this way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Buffalo wouldnt put out a blizzard warning if there were 90 mph winds and 50 inches of snow. You know better than that. Ha, maybe. I do remember they issued blizzard warnings for the eastern Lake Ontario counties during the Valentines Day 2007 storm. I always thought they reserved blizzard warnings for synoptic scale events, but they probably only did so in that case to jive with their BGM and ALB counterparts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Meanwhile, the NAM has trended decidedly north with our little Christmas morning event...and it's starting to come within range for the SREFs as well. SREF snowfall probabilities will always be low for an event that is 72+ hours away due to the large spread among the individual members, but I'm a little surprised to see where the highest probabilities (20%) are being depicted right now: The most likely outcome for this event is probably a stripe of 1-3" - certainly not a huge deal, but a nice touch considering it would occur on the actual holiday. Hopefully this delivers to our Southern Tier folks who will pretty much be shut out of the ongoing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Eyeballing about 2" here so far. Nice snowy night ongoing. Winds are starting to pick up, but not much blowing snow yet as snow consistency is still a bit heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just saw that the NWS picked up 2.2 inches so far from this event. Got around an inch here maybe in Hamburg, drove to Boston they have around 1.5-2 inches as of an hour ago as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just got back from a absolute horrid drive to Akron. Snow began to pick up as I headed toward Elma and really got going strong when I got to Lancaster. Snow was coming down to where it was a virtual whiteout from Lancaster to Akron. There was about 1 1/2" in Akron and the snow tapered off by the time I left Akron but again picked up when we got back into Lancaster.Going down Broadway it was a total whiteout and there was a solid 3" of snow and still coming down. Once I got back to Cheektowaga it tapered off again and there was only about 1 1/2". I'm at the girlfriends in West Seneca where there is a little over an inch. Radar shows the snow is cranking over my house in OP and my grandmother confirms this. Says about 2" or so but shes just eyeballing it so id say there's anywhere from 1-3", but when she says it snowing hard its snowing hard because shes lived through plenty of snowstorms since 1939 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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