vortmax Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 How's the lake enhancement factor looking? Think it will add another .25" to the totals in some areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The NAM almost has me thinking there will be two snowfall jackpots in Western NY: one in the obvious location (Boston Hills, Chautauqua Ridge) where I am becoming increasingly confident in a 12"+ snowfall. I really think the Chautauqua Ridge is going to be hammered. But the NAM has been indicating a second QPF maximum NORTH of Buffalo due to an unusual upstream connection to Lake Huron. It almost reminds me of the 1/1-1/4/10 event where a prolonged connection to Lake Huron delivered up to 31" in IAG, albeit this will be a much shorter-duration event. Still, the idea of a second jackpot in the BUF north towns is something I've been kicking around for a couple days now. I do think the NWS is leaning way conservative with this event. Mid-level deformation looks very good given the position of the H7/H5 low centers at 12z Saturday, and there is an abundance of moisture from the surface to the top of the boundary layer. I think people get to wrapped up in advisories/warnings/etc. but I wouldn't be surprised if BUF extends the winter storm watch to include the Niagara Frontier later today. Although snowfall amounts won't necessarily be monumental for Western NY standards, the combination of snow and wind will make for very difficult traveling conditions at the height of the event overnight Friday through Saturday morning. This looks like a legit storm to me. They must have read your post... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 108 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 NYZ001-002-010-011-210215- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0015.121221T2100Z-121222T2100Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO... BATAVIA 108 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND GENESEE COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. * VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES. EXPECT SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 They must have read your post... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 108 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 NYZ001-002-010-011-210215- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0015.121221T2100Z-121222T2100Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO... BATAVIA 108 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND GENESEE COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SATURDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. * VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES. EXPECT SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. HEY! I called the NWS conservative first at 8 am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Don't look now, but the 12z op euro is a whopper of a snowstorm for WNY next Wednesday night/Thursday. Not saying I agree or disagree, but that's one heck of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Don't look now, but the 12z op euro is a whopper of a snowstorm for WNY next Wednesday night/Thursday. Not saying I agree or disagree, but that's one heck of a storm. Still a bit of "settling" left to do for the models with the next storm, wrt strength/track. But certainly looks to be pretty significant moisture associated with a storm for someone. Some of my favorite storms are strong/moist southern stream sytems lifting into a confluent flow pattern to the NE.....ie cold air can fight back!! You can get buckets of snow in a hurry if things line up just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans 11:07 AM EST Thursday 20 December 2012 Snowfall warning for Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans continued Heavy snow expected tonight and Friday. A Colorado low is tracking northeast towards lower Michigan and is intensifying into a winter storm as expected. Snow ahead of this storm will arrive over areas near Georgian Bay later this afternoon then quickly spread eastward into the Ottawa and St Lawrence valleys this evening. The snow will quickly become heavy at times this evening and continue tonight and through Friday with total snowfall amounts of 15 to 25 cm expected across the district by Friday evening. Over Eastern Ontario snowfall rates up to 5 cm per hour will be quite possible during the height of this snowstorm, which is expected to be overnight into Friday morning. Total snowfall amounts could be a bit less in the St Lawrence Valley due to the possibility of mixing with some rain on Friday. Brisk easterly winds will also cause low visibility at times in blowing snow. As the Colorado low tracks east across Southern Ontario into New York State, it is expected to get absorbed by an East Coast low which is forecast to intensify and track northward towards Southeastern Quebec by Friday night. If this happens, heavy snow may persist in the Renfrew through Ottawa to Cornwall areas into Friday night, with potential for higher total snowfall amounts of 30 cm. Motorists should be prepared for hazardous winter driving conditions tonight and Friday and adjust travel plans accordingly. The snow will taper off from west to east on Saturday as the storm moves away across Eastern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z NAM paints a foot of snow for Metro Buffalo! http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kbuf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z NAM paints a foot of snow for Metro Buffalo! http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kbuf Crazy. Has like 14" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Compromise between the GFS and ECMWF positions of the 50/50 low, anticyclone over Ontario and location of shortwave as it begins to interact with the Gulf would be pretty much the ideal setup for an upstate NY jackpot. Thinking the 18Z GFS has a better handle on wave #1 but too suppressed with wave #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Compromise between the GFS and ECMWF positions of the 50/50 low, anticyclone over Ontario and location of shortwave as it begins to interact with the Gulf would be pretty much the ideal setup for an upstate NY jackpot. Thinking the 18Z GFS has a better handle on wave #1 but too suppressed with wave #2. The second system around the 27th definitely bears watching. It think the track will depend on the timing and degree to which the northern and southern streams phase as well the strength of the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I know the current system is bringing primarily rain so it doesn't really interest the majority of people posting here, but I've been really impressed with the high wind potential along the Lake Erie shoreline and in the higher terrain south of BUF this evening and that certainly appears to be panning out. The models have been projecting one of the stronger low level jets to pass through Western NY in the past few years. With WAA and precipitation that typically will not mix down in most places, but it can really rock in places like DKK as well as the hill towns of southern Erie and Chautauqua Counties. Gusting to 54 mph at DKK and 51 mph at my parents house on Cole Road right now. Thinking both places could see 60+ mph before the evening is through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 superrr windy at my work right now Justin (I work outside) . Definitely gusting over 50 at times right now. That wind is coming right down the slopes of the peaks of the Boston Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snowing like a mofo here in Spencer, NY! 20 minutes south of Ithaca. Very windy too - could it do this the rest of the night? This was supposed to be rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snowing like a mofo here in Spencer, NY! 20 minutes south of Ithaca. Very windy too - could it do this the rest of the night? This was supposed to be rain! Cool, what's your elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I know the current system is bringing primarily rain so it doesn't really interest the majority of people posting here, but I've been really impressed with the high wind potential along the Lake Erie shoreline and in the higher terrain south of BUF this evening and that certainly appears to be panning out. The models have been projecting one of the stronger low level jets to pass through Western NY in the past few years. With WAA and precipitation that typically will not mix down in most places, but it can really rock in places like DKK as well as the hill towns of southern Erie and Chautauqua Counties. Gusting to 54 mph at DKK and 51 mph at my parents house on Cole Road right now. Thinking both places could see 60+ mph before the evening is through. The power's flickering here from the wind. I don't know what the peak gust has been, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 About 1600 feet. Could this keep up the rest of the night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 About 1600 feet. Could this keep up the rest of the night? It most likely will change to rain within the next couple hours once the air column gets saturated and the warm air starts moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Kinda like a sleet or freezing rain here in Southern Oswego County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 About 1600 feet. Could this keep up the rest of the night? It isn't surprising that the precipitation started as snow in your location. Initially the column is pretty dry over central and eastern parts of the state, so when the precip begins many locations will wet bulb down to 0C through a deep layer. WAA and strengthening southerly flow (and at 1600' in the Finger Lakes you can bet that wind will roar overnight) will cause the precip to change to rain by ~10PM or so. Enjoy the snow while it lasts. You could see a brief flip back to snow at the tail end of the precipitation around 8:00 tomorrow morning as cold air rushes back in. Tomorrow night looks like your best chance of accumulating snow as the wraparound moisture works its way in. Wouldn't be shocking if you picked up a couple/few inches by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 37/28 at my house. I think frozen precip here looks iffy, with the HRRR indicating that the lowest 50 mb or so will be above freezing. Even though the wet bulb temperatures are below freezing at all levels above the surface in the 00z ALB sounding, continued warm air advection will probably keep the low level temperatures above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Thanks for the input! At least now I won't be disappointed when it stops! And you're right -the wind is really howling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Some flights delayed due to the high winds at the airport currently. Gust definitely over 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Some flights delayed due to the high winds at the airport currently. Gust definitely over 50. Latest VAD profile indicates winds increasing from 25kts at 1k' to 65kts at 4k' at BUF. That's pretty impressive low level wind shear (LLWS). I think the strongest winds are only going to last for another hour or two, then things ramp down very quickly as the core of the LLJ shifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Latest VAD profile indicates winds increasing from 25kts at 1k' to 65kts at 4k' at BUF. That's pretty impressive low level wind shear (LLWS). I think the strongest winds are only going to last for another hour or two, then things ramp down very quickly as the core of the LLJ shifts east. I just had one of the strongest gust I've ever received at this location. Had to be near 60, entire house was shaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This is probably the most intense LLJ to pass through western New York since 12/9/09 when the anemometer at my parents' house on Cole Road peaked at 68 mph, the standing record for their wx station which was installed in the summer of 2007. They're up at 1200' so it has to be ferocious there right now. Meanwhile the airport is only gusting to 30 mph. It's fascinating how localized this type of event often is. No two events are ever exactly the same, but a typical southerly LLJ windstorm is focused near and west of the New York State Thruway from exit 57 southward to the state line...and also at elevations above 1000' in southern Erie and Chautauqua Counties. The 12/9/09 event scared me. I was living with my parents at the time, and I've never heard such a constant roaring wind before. It happened during the night and I remember feeling my bedroom floor vibrating during the stronger gusts. Didn't get much sleep that night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This is probably the most intense LLJ to pass through western New York since 12/9/09 when the anemometer at my parents' house on Cole Road peaked at 68 mph, the standing record for their wx station which was installed in the summer of 2007. They're up at 1200' so it has to be ferocious there right now. Meanwhile the airport is only gusting to 30 mph. It's fascinating how localized this type of event often is. No two events are ever exactly the same, but a typical southerly LLJ windstorm is focused near and west of the New York State Thruway from exit 57 southward to the state line...and also at elevations above 1000' in southern Erie and Chautauqua Counties. The 12/9/09 event scared me. I was living with my parents at the time, and I've never heard such a constant roaring wind before. It happened during the night and I remember feeling my bedroom floor vibrating during the stronger gusts. Didn't get much sleep that night! A few years ago Niagara falls airport had a gust to 83 mph. It seems the most intense wind events in WNY occur on a SW flow across the lake across the Niagara Frontier. http://www.wivb.com/...st-blasts-Falls Last year actually! This article shows how "war zone" damage was done! Insane! http://niagara-gazette.com/local/x1250116736/Photos-of-damage-throughout-the-area-caused-by-todays-high-winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 A few years ago Niagara falls airport had a gust to 83 mph. It seems the most intense wind events in WNY occur on a SW flow across the lake across the Niagara Frontier. From the city of Buffalo and its eastern suburbs northward to the Lake Ontario shoreline, that is definitely the case. These southerly or southeasterly events never seem to mix down in those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 When I think "war zone" I think October 2006. Nothing else compares, IMO. But those pics are impressive to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 expect this to be a crushing storm for parts of eastern ontario and regions N of montreal. ottawa city and east along the ottawa river.... 8-16 inches (20-40cm) depeding on amount of rain/mix precip....right now i would lean less rain/mix, but i would feel more comfortable if the track was 20 or 30 miles eastward....the current track is defintely not classic for heaviest snow in the ottawa city area but the amount of moisture, dynamics being progged unanimoulsy by the models over the region means there will be a period of very heavy snowfall at least for several hours that should pile things up quickly even if there is some mix/rain. lingering snow into saturday could really put this storm over the top. areas up the river from ottawa and into the upper ottawa valley and west of the city into the should have a pure 8-14 inches (20-35cm) of snow. N of the ottawa river and into the ski regions N of montreal, i think 12-20 inches (30-50cm) of snow can be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 No real surprises on the 00z NAM. Looks pretty similar to the 12z/18z runs. I still think the NWS may be a tad underdone with snowfall amounts on the Niagara Frontier, but the difference between 4-6" or 6-8" doesn't really matter much to the average Joe - this will be difficult to measure anyway with the drifting. What a wintry day Saturday is shaping up to be! Just hope my flight is able to land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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