nzucker Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Brutal snowmelt last night. 39° at 3pm and 44° at 5am and quite windy. Lost all "natural" snow and the plow piles that I thought were safe took a beating. Might lose them also at this rate, especially with heavy rain coming. It's amazing you had less than 40" of snow last winter and might not get more than that this season. That's after several epic seasons in that area with 100"+ like 07-08. 11-12 and 12-13 have been two of the worst back-to-back winters. And I'd say snowmobile season is basically done for most areas...none of the snow events coming look like high QPF, just a few powdery clippers. That's not going to put much of a base down, and then you're getting into mid-late February when sun angle starts to become a detriment to holding snowpack. Not really seeing it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It's amazing you had less than 40" of snow last winter and might not get more than that this season. That's after several epic seasons in that area with 100"+ like 07-08. 11-12 and 12-13 have been two of the worst back-to-back winters. And I'd say snowmobile season is basically done for most areas...none of the snow events coming look like high QPF, just a few powdery clippers. That's not going to put much of a base down, and then you're getting into mid-late February when sun angle starts to become a detriment to holding snowpack. Not really seeing it this year. Give us 4 days....then talk!! 30-50 inches over the next 5 days for the Tug Hill area...and everywhere near by that area should get things going again in a hurry...and then next weeks clippers and subsequent bouts of LES....I think it will be a great February around these parts....and we'll get another EC storm pretty soon I'd presume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Getting downsloped like a son of a b**ch right now here. Have been and will prob continue to for a while http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/1377/imagelqma.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 30-50" of LES? Is that for real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It's amazing you had less than 40" of snow last winter and might not get more than that this season. That's after several epic seasons in that area with 100"+ like 07-08. 11-12 and 12-13 have been two of the worst back-to-back winters. And I'd say snowmobile season is basically done for most areas...none of the snow events coming look like high QPF, just a few powdery clippers. That's not going to put much of a base down, and then you're getting into mid-late February when sun angle starts to become a detriment to holding snowpack. Not really seeing it this year. Yea, I would have thought <40" was not possible before last year. Some of those ~100" years were bad for riding but we always seemed to get snow, even if it melted. I still have hopes for the tug (especially after reading LEK's post) but it would be nice to ride somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Moderate snow and wind here with the ground starting to get coated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Snow is gone yet again. 0.82" of rain and 34 mph wind gust max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Temp here is 37 degrees colder than it was this time yesterday. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Temp here is 37 degrees colder than it was this time yesterday. Wow You see latest NAM and WRF models? Saturday looks pretty impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 You see latest NAM and WRF models? Saturday looks pretty impressive!NAM Hi-Res looks great but WRF models dont go out far enough yet (at least the ARW and NMM).Edit to add: Just looked at the 4km BTV WRF and it had us right in the bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM Hi-Res looks great but WRF models dont go out far enough yet (at least the ARW and NMM). Edit to add: Just looked at the 4km BTV WRF and it had us right in the bullseye! Don't you think that shear might be a limiting factor? I'm talking about the 60hr NAM panels. Let me know if I'm misreading things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snobunnie Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Snow is completely gone here... crazy how fast it went. Even more crazy it's 61° last thursday morning it was-14 for the low that's a freakin 75° difference that just blows my mind. Gonna have to start over for the 3rd time for the 2012/2013 snowmobile season WTF. Other than LES snow not looking like any major storms in site. I'm already looking forward to spring and the golf and racing season. Even if we do get lots of snow everyday for the next week...it is going to be very hard to freeze up the mud/waterholes that we finally got frozen in last weeks negative numbers! Around here most of of our trails are covered in running water, even areas where it is normally standing water have swift creeks flowing over them...must be the drainage pipes are plugged with ice or other debris!!! and we all know nothing eats up snow like open water!!!! So sad as we had an overnight trip on the sleds from the house planned for next week to the Adirondacks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Keep an eye on the differences between the NMM and ARW-WRF models for LES later Friday night through early Saturday morning. Quite an impressive band on the ARW just south of Buffalo...probably from West Seneca to Orchard Park area...while the NMM band is very weak. Unfortunately, it seems like there is a problem with the MM5 at Stony Brook right now....hasn't been posted for the last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Keep an eye on the differences between the NMM and ARW-WRF models for LES later Friday night through early Saturday morning. Quite an impressive band on the ARW just south of Buffalo...probably from West Seneca to Orchard Park area...while the NMM band is very weak. Unfortunately, it seems like there is a problem with the MM5 at Stony Brook right now....hasn't been posted for the last several days. like I said to BuffaloWeather earlier the 4km BTV WRF (both the 06z and 12z runs) looks very similar to the ARW. Spitting out anywhere between 1.25 and 1.75" of QPF is surely overdone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Keep an eye on the differences between the NMM and ARW-WRF models for LES later Friday night through early Saturday morning. Quite an impressive band on the ARW just south of Buffalo...probably from West Seneca to Orchard Park area...while the NMM band is very weak. Unfortunately, it seems like there is a problem with the MM5 at Stony Brook right now....hasn't been posted for the last several days. Seems to be fine now: 24 hour precip starting at 00z tonight: And then the next 24 hours after that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 BTW, the GFS based meso from BUF depicts a very intense band off Lake Ontario....4-5+"/hr. stuff: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 LES Watch just issued for BUF metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Heavy snow in the forecast for my zip code by the NWS in the point and click from tonight through Saturday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Heavy snow in the forecast for my zip code by the NWS in the point and click from tonight through Saturday Night. I'm thinking early Sat. morning looks good for Buffalo Metro (and just south)...at least for 4-5 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Oh...and maybe some decent surprise L. Huron snows for a bit either tonight or tomorrow morning... A lot of the meso's have a pretty raging band feeding into Ontario...then breaking off but still making a good inland push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NWS BUF .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. WESTERLY FLOW LAKE SNOWS AS WE START THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BACK TO BETWEEN 240 AND 260 IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. LAKE PARAMETERS STILL REMAINING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE CONTINUATION A FAIRLY INTENSE LAKE BANDS TO REMAIN INTACT AS THEY LIFTS NORTHWARD OFF BOTH LAKES. DEEP OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH LAKE INDUCE CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING AROUND 8K FEET WHICH IS NOT IDEAL...BUT WITH THE BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING THE MAXIMUM OMEGA BURIED WELL WITHIN THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD EASILY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WORKING INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHTOWNS AND THE WATERTOWN AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH MODEL CONTINUITY TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN THESE AREAS...THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 850 mb winds around 50 kts based on the SPC mesoanalysis are leading to some speed shear in the Lake Ontario band. This is giving the band a cellular, disorganized look on radar. It looks like the height gradient should slowly weaken in the next few hours and allow the band to intensify and develop a more organized central core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Seems to be fine now: 24 hour precip starting at 00z tonight: And then the next 24 hours after that: thanks must have heard my complaint lol. Band seems to weak on the MM5 Friday night and Saturday for BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 thanks must have heard my complaint lol. Band seems to weak on the MM5 Friday night and Saturday for BUF. I agree...but then again I'm not so sure the model is going to pick up on the fact that I'm sure a lot of the L. Erie ice is broken up....that may really nicely aid to one last good event off Erie before the sad faces pop up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I agree...but then again I'm not so sure the model is going to pick up on the fact that I'm sure a lot of the L. Erie ice is broken up....that may really nicely aid to one last good event off Erie before the sad faces pop up! I think the models have ice parameters built in. I mean the ice is probably only reducing evaporation by 10%, maybe even less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 BTW, the GFS based meso from BUF depicts a very intense band off Lake Ontario....4-5+"/hr. stuff: Oh so close to me. I really need to move to the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Judging by the map posted above looks that is just to the north of me grrrrrr lol. Looks pretty narrow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 +SN here. Total whiteout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I think the models have ice parameters built in. I mean the ice is probably only reducing evaporation by 10%, maybe even less. Has there been any reports as to how much the ice broke up (and/or shoved ashore) from yesterday's/last nights wind?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Has there been any reports as to how much the ice broke up (and/or shoved ashore) from yesterday's/last nights wind?? there's satellite derived analyses by glerl and glcfs...I would think those type of things would be put into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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