Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December

[Revracer800]

Love all this LES we have been getting but sure would we could get a storm were everyone get's a good amount of snow, but if friday looks good for area here for some LES i'll take it haha. This warm up is gonna kill the snowmobile trails again so gonna have to start over but like i said the whole state needs a storm not just LES in a small area.

[BuffaloWeather]

well i don't think it would be that persistent...I didn't mean the band was going to be over the city the whole time lol.  Just synoptically it's a good period...it may end up being 2 times...since there is 2 clippers that pass through in that time frame.

 

I could see feet...but it's too early to go that crazy yet. 

 

Shear conditions look good...delta-ts aren't fantastic...but plenty sufficient.  And mositure and some synoptic lift should be good as the shortwaves approach.

 

Haha now you got me excited! Should be fun to watch unfold. These warm conditions/rain/wind are doing there best to remove all the ice from lake Erie! Should have a completely open lake to work with which will be nice!

[lakeeffectkid383]

well i don't think it would be that persistent...I didn't mean the band was going to be over the city the whole time lol.  Just synoptically it's a good period...it may end up being 2 times...since there is 2 clippers that pass through in that time frame.

 

I could see feet...but it's too early to go that crazy yet. 

 

Shear conditions look good...delta-ts aren't fantastic...but plenty sufficient.  And mositure and some synoptic lift should be good as the shortwaves approach.

Sometimes the best snowfalls on a SW flow seem to happen when there are plenty sufficient (Deltas between 15-18C) but not overly extreme i.e. December 01-03 2010.

[BuffaloWeather]

Sometimes the best snowfalls on a SW flow seem to happen when there are plenty sufficient (Deltas between 15-18C) but not overly extreme i.e. December 01-03 2010.

 

Very true. Thunder snow for 24 straight hours off and on during that event! Ah to have one of those again!

[Revracer800]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

408 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

NYZ006-012-019-020-085-300515-

/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0002.130131T1800Z-130202T1100Z/

OSWEGO-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...

ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

408 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA AND

CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IN

THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS..WEST 25 TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH

POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVER ON ROADS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER SNOW

BANDS STILL UNCERTAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS

POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

THOMAS/TMA

Also a wind advisory out for the area.

[WNash]

I'll stick to the long term verbiage in the AFD:

 

 

 

THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THANSTEADY STATE WITH LAKE EFFECT BANDS IMPACTING MULTIPLE AREAS OVERTHE WEEKEND...WITH SOME AREAS STILL HAVING THE POTENTIAL FORSIGNIFICANT SNOWS.

 

"Multiple areas" sounds more promising for Northern Erie than any other LES discussion I've seen this winter. Does anyone see any reason to rule out SW flow at this time?

[lakeeffectkid383]

I'll stick to the long term verbiage in the AFD:

 

 

 

 

"Multiple areas" sounds more promising for Northern Erie than any other LES discussion I've seen this winter. Does anyone see any reason to rule out SW flow at this time?

no way anyone can rule it out. As OSU said the Euro looked good for at least a decent period of well aligned SW winds as well as both the 06z and 12z GFS. I would actually be surprised if the city and immediate burbs didn't get into the lake effect at some point between Friday night and Sunday. Right now its just a safer bet to say that areas south of the city will see 6"+. I think many areas south of the city (south of the southtowns too) will be measuring the snow in feet by early next week as opposed to inches. I think we should do decent in the southtowns as well though with a prolonged period of at least WSW winds.

[BuffaloWeather]

I'll stick to the long term verbiage in the AFD:

 

 

 

 

"Multiple areas" sounds more promising for Northern Erie than any other LES discussion I've seen this winter. Does anyone see any reason to rule out SW flow at this time?

 

Winds go completely Southwest for a time period on Saturday. It will definitely make it up to the Buffalo Metro and points northeast for sure if it comes to fruition. I am extremely excited for this event! Could be the best event for the Metro in quite sometime.

[steffen]

Winds go completely Southwest for a time period on Saturday. It will definitely make it up to the Buffalo Metro and points northeast for sure if it comes to fruition. I am extremely excited for this event! Could be the best event for the Metro in quite sometime.

About friggin time, I'd say! The last real and prolonged SW event I can remember was October 2006 - and that one wasn't "pretty".

[BuffaloWeather]

About friggin time, I'd say! The last real and prolonged SW event I can remember was October 2006 - and that one wasn't "pretty".

 

This won't be a prolonged SW flow. Instead it will be a "broad brush" type LES event where the majority of WNY will get some decent stuff. Epic events like 2006 happen about once every 5 years or so sometimes longer.. 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2010 were all pretty epic events in the last 10 years that affected either the metro or nearby suburbs.

[lakeeffectkid383]

This won't be a prolonged SW flow. Instead it will be a "broad brush" type LES event where the majority of WNY will get some decent stuff. Epic events like 2006 happen about once every 5 years or so sometimes longer.. 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2010 were all pretty epic events in the last 10 years that affected either the metro or nearby suburbs.

ya id say every 3-4 years we get a decent hit in the metro area or immediate suburbs. There hasn't been anything close to a good event for BUF and the immediate suburbs since Dec 2010. I hope all of us from Springville to Grand Island can cash in on at least 6". If you read the LES watch thats up right now for areas south of BUF thats only for Thursday into Friday. Once we get closer to the weekend a lake effect snow watch will almost certainly have to be issued for Northern Erie after Friday afternoon. This event definitely has the most potential for the BUF area in the last several years.

[OSUmetstud]

Monday nights' 300mb forecast maps showed a good steady westerly flow for Thursday into Friday- Tuesday AM's went WSW shifting to WSE. That's usually just a blowby for us- no steady snowfall.

 

Here's where I watch them; http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetstream_model_fcst.html

lake-effect is not dictated by the 300mb flow...best is a mean layer average in the lowest 900-750mb or so...but 850 is a good approximation.  I would think the Tug gets blasted Thursday afternoon through Friday morning (perhaps longer) and then it shifts south...but it comes back north on Saturday morning as the flow backs again.

[OSUmetstud]

Dec. 2010 was a prolonged SW event.  It just sat over South Buffalo/West Seneca for like 20 hours lol.

 

The rates in that event were relatively pedistrian which is atypical for heavy LES in Buffalo.

 

Unfortunately, I was living in Massachusetts at the time so I missed it...but still had a nice winter over there in 2010-2011.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I know its just the point and click forecast but I find it intresting the NWS already has heavy snow in the forecast for here Thursday, Thursday Night, Friday , and Friday night.

[steffen]

Dec. 2010 was a prolonged SW event.  It just sat over South Buffalo/West Seneca for like 20 hours lol.

 

The rates in that event were relatively pedistrian which is atypical for heavy LES in Buffalo.

 

Unfortunately, I was living in Massachusetts at the time so I missed it...but still had a nice winter over there in 2010-2011.

Yeah, don't remind me of that one. The band was close enough for me to see and hear the constant thunder and lightning. Sooo close, but I got maybe 1 inch out of it while not more than 2 or 3 miles south got 3 feet. Not fair :-)

[OSUmetstud]

I know its just the point and click forecast but I find it intresting the NWS already has heavy snow in the forecast for here Thursday, Thursday Night, Friday , and Friday night.

 

BUF broad brushed the heavy snow graphics for the LES.

[OSUmetstud]

downslope signature?

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_024_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

GFS gets BUF down to 980mb...we probably only hit that once every 5 years i'd guess.

[BuffaloWeather]

downslope signature?

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_024_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

GFS gets BUF down to 980mb...we probably only hit that once every 5 years i'd guess.

 Wow thats impressive. Does that value increase the chances of us having a damaging wind event? Also, with the latest guidance what is your opinion on how each day unfolds? Thursday Night-Friday Lake effect should hit Springville down to Erie PA over to Holiday Valley? Than Friday Night into Sunday the best chance for Erie county to take a decent hit? Will conditions be more favorable for the 1st event or 2nd event in your opinion?

[lakeeffectkid383]

BUF broad brushed the heavy snow graphics for the LES.

ya kinda figured that out after i clicked on the Clarence,NY forecast and it said the same thing lol.

[OSUmetstud]

 Wow thats impressive. Does that value increase the chances of us having a damaging wind event? Also, with the latest guidance what is your opinion on how each day unfolds? Thursday Night-Friday Lake effect should hit Springville down to Erie PA over to Holiday Valley? Than Friday Night into Sunday the best chance for Erie county to take a decent hit? Will conditions be more favorable for the 1st event or 2nd event in your opinion?

This hill tops probably have a better chance at a damaging wind event than a classic lake erie low friction driven high wind event for the Niagara Frontier.  There will be a strong inversion, but if we can manage some kind of squall line along the front, which does have some model support, that would help bring the winds just off the surface down to the ground.

 

The ideal situation for that is a compact bombing low tracking from Detriot to just north of Lake Ontario.  The second wave depends in our vicinity...and the system doesn't have super strong winds in the cold sector once the winds turn SW post frontal.

 

It probably develops Thursday afternoon over central Erie before sinking south...you have good chance of picking up a few inches before it slips south.  Friday is when the instability is the highest...but the wind are also WNW so it won't reach it's full potential.

 

And Yeah, Friday night and Saturday looks like when BUF gets into the action.  There's still some red flags with the inversion heights then....so we'll see how it unfolds. 

[OSUmetstud]

Those are thunderstorms over southern Erie County right now.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Those are thunderstorms over southern Erie County right now.

absolutley pouring here but haven't heard thunder. Still have the inner tube of my rain gauge out for measuring snow so not sure exactly how much rain has fallen here today but earlier this morning with that squall line we def picked up a good amount of rain.

Edit to add: closest wunderground station to me (only about 1/2 mi or so away from me) has recorded 0.46" for today which matches up nicely with other station around the area.

[Flying MXZ]

Brutal snowmelt last night.  39° at 3pm and 44° at 5am and quite windy.  Lost all "natural" snow and the plow piles that I thought were safe took a beating.  Might lose them also at this rate, especially with heavy rain coming.

[heavy_wx]

Brutal snowmelt last night.  39° at 3pm and 44° at 5am and quite windy.  Lost all "natural" snow and the plow piles that I thought were safe took a beating.  Might lose them also at this rate, especially with heavy rain coming.

 

Same here, only the larger piles of snow are left. Dewpoints in the mid 40s really sped up the melting.

[Buffalo Bumble]

Same here, only the larger piles of snow are left. Dewpoints in the mid 40s really sped up the melting.

 

Pretty incredible blast of warmth for late January - 

 

 

1. RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGIONTODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF AN ASTOUNDING +14C TO+15C...NUMBERS THAT ARE MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF MID JULY THAN LATEJANUARY. COUPLED WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...SUCH TEMPS ALOFTWILL TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSSMUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS COMING WITHIN THEFAVORED DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIONS AND THE NORMAL WARM SPOTS IN THEGENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. OUR AIRMASS IS SO WARM THAT THERECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 30TH HAVE ALREADY BEEN SHATTERED ATBUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND WATERTOWN AS OF 6 AM...WHICH HAVE SO FARRECORDED HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 63...60...AND 57 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY.PREVIOUSLY...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THESE CITIES WERE AS FOLLOWS:BUFFALO...56 IN 1916ROCHESTER...55 IN 1974WATERTOWN...52 IN 2006.

[heavy_wx]

Pretty incredible blast of warmth for late January - 

 

 

1. RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGIONTODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF AN ASTOUNDING +14C TO+15C...NUMBERS THAT ARE MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF MID JULY THAN LATEJANUARY. COUPLED WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...SUCH TEMPS ALOFTWILL TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSSMUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS COMING WITHIN THEFAVORED DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIONS AND THE NORMAL WARM SPOTS IN THEGENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. OUR AIRMASS IS SO WARM THAT THERECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 30TH HAVE ALREADY BEEN SHATTERED ATBUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND WATERTOWN AS OF 6 AM...WHICH HAVE SO FARRECORDED HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 63...60...AND 57 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY.PREVIOUSLY...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THESE CITIES WERE AS FOLLOWS:BUFFALO...56 IN 1916ROCHESTER...55 IN 1974WATERTOWN...52 IN 2006.

 

Already 56 here. The HRRR has most of CNY getting into at least the low 60s.

[Buffalo Bumble]

Already 56 here. The HRRR has most of CNY getting into at least the low 60s.

 

Before the rain moved back in a little while ago, it actually felt quite muggy here.  I suppose a temperature of 65 deg with 80%+ humidity will do that...

[Revracer800]

Snow is completely gone here... crazy how fast it went. Even more crazy it's 61° last thursday morning it was-14 for the low that's a freakin 75° difference that just blows my mind. Gonna have to start over for the 3rd time for the 2012/2013 snowmobile season WTF. Other than LES snow not looking like any major storms in site. I'm already looking forward to spring and the golf and racing season.

[BuffaloWeather]

High of 66 at KBUF today on what would normally be the coldest day of the year. I am getting really tired of these winds, seems like every week we have a high wind warning. Lost a window in the last event. Hey OSU what are you thinking for the LES, NWS seems quite unimpressed it seems.

 

Record broken by 10 degrees....Has that ever been done in the last 50 years? 10 degrees is crazy!

[heavy_wx]

It felt nice and springlike here today with a high of 62.

 

I think the best chance of lake effect for Oswego in the next few days will probably be sometime Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Accumulations will depend on how sharp the shortwave trough is and thus how quickly the winds shift to the wnw/nw. The quicker the winds shift, the less time the band will be over the area. We probably won't know how these details will unfold until at least tomorrow.