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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


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Well at least that's one advantage to the warm temperatures we have been having during the fall/winter during recent years.  Doesn't look like Lake Erie will be freezing over anytime soon, especially with forecasts for next week calling for temperatures above freezing even for lows.

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getting dumped on here in OP. about 3" today so far with about 7" on the ground and close to 10" since Monday. should get several inches later if thar Lake Erie band gets here.

 

These wind directions are completely throwing me off. The west end of Lake Erie has had SW winds with bands going since noon. The winds look to be different all over the great lakes. Its been hard to look upstream as a sign of things to come here as off Lake Michigan winds have also been SW all day. There is a mid level short wave visible over Lake Huron that is currently backing the winds, it looks to be taking its sweet time coming. Do you see that Meso Low over Ontario pretty impressive!!!

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.4717391304347826&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BUF&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=465.5&map.y=207.5&centerx=400&centery=240&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

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Looks like another mesoscale vortex has formed over Lake Ontario with some rotation in the velocity from KBUF. The Lake Erie band is looking nice as well with the 850 mb winds becoming more west-southwest.

 

Looking at the thruway cams that band off Erie is absolutely pounding the I90 right now. Its only 4-5 miles south of me! I will post pictures/videos if that thing makes it to me!

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Looking at the thruway cams that band off Erie is absolutely pounding the I90 right now. Its only 4-5 miles south of me! I will post pictures/videos if that thing makes it to me!

 

It does appear to be moving north so you may have a shot. It also looks like it's intensifying with a few specks of 35 dBz reflectivity showing up in the core of the band.

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Just went Lake effect chasing...I go on quite a few a year. I had to turn around in this one on Route 5 near Angola. My goodness was it ever snowing bad. About 6 inches of new snow on the ground, everyone had there four-ways on. I literally couldn't see more then 1-2 feet in front of my car. I took a few pictures while driving but I could not get to many. Such different conditions from here, just 2-3 miles south and it turns into a whiteout!

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Great Lakes thermal low almost meso-scale dropping southeast across Lake Huron will cross s.w. Ontario tonight and w NY late overnight, winds will turn to NNE by morning and allow the super-frigid air mass banked up over the Ottawa valley to pour across Lake Ontario on 25-35 mph winds, could see some odd effects like squalls heading SW towards Lockport and Buffalo, think IAG to ROC could get a big dump of snow from that (7-12 inches maybe?), Would say 3 inches for BUF out of that and less further south as the inland fetch of this stable layer will be about 30-40 miles before the heavier snow is gone. The only thing standing between this air mass and daytime highs below zero F would be heat advection from Lake Ontario, so parts of upstate NY that get a land trajectory tomorrow will be near zero all day (near -10 F in the St Lawrence valley).

 

Great call Roger, at least for my area.  Moderate to at times heavy snow here for the last couple hours, up to 2"/hr rates at times.  I don't recall seeing anything from BUF on this until a short time ago when a special weather statement was issued.  

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-13 here in Hannibal WOW. -30 in Saranac Lake YIKES.

Hill and Valley effect in Saranac; once saw -44f. @580' valley location and -21 just 3 miles up the hill at 1600'. Had to walk home- the fuel jelled up just waiting at the pump!

Not too bad here in Boonville; maybe -16 this morning. Definitely not below -20; went out with the child to make 'instant icecubes' just to check. Lots of 2-hour school delays up this way.

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The low was -12F here. Not bad when you consider the not very impressive snow pack.  I probably won't beat the -19F that I had  earlier in the month.

 

Any signs Lake Ontario will be active again I wonder this weekend. I'd take an inch or two scrap that makes it down the Mohawk. Synoptic snow is all but non-existent in this pattern.

 

Sorry, no LES snow report but -12.7° this morning.  Felt quite nice.

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Lake Effect Totals over last few days: Picked up around a foot in my location.

 

NEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY...   RUSHFORD               7.6   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   WEST ALMOND            6.6   700 AM  1/23  SUNDAY TO WED   ALFRED                 2.9   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   WHITESVILLE            1.5   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP OBSERVER...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...   PERRYSBURG            25.0  1100 AM  1/24  CO-OP   WEST VALLEY           16.0   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   LITTLE VALLEY         13.5   700 AM  1/23  SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY   RANDOLPH              10.0   700 AM  1/23  SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY   FRANKLINVILLE          9.8   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   ALLEGANY               6.8   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   OLEAN                  4.0   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP...CAYUGA COUNTY...   FAIR HAVEN            36.0   700 AM  1/24  HIGHWAY DEPT...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...   RIPLEY                24.8   700 AM  1/24  SUNDAY TO TUESDAY   FORESTVILLE           20.5   700 AM  1/24  SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY   JAMESTOWN             12.1   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   KENNEDY               11.1   700 AM  1/24  SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY   DUNKIRK                8.6   700 AM  1/24  SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...ERIE COUNTY...   GLENWOOD              17.5   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   COLDEN                17.1   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   BOSTON                15.5   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   HOLLAND               14.1   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   HAMBURG               12.2   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   WALES                 11.0   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   BLASDELL               7.9   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   EAST AURORA            6.5   700 AM  1/23  SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY   ELMA                   5.9   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   EAST AURORA            5.7   700 AM  1/24  NWS EMPLOYEE   WEST SENECA            3.5   700 AM  1/24  WEST SIDE OF TOWN   WILLIAMSVILLE          1.6   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT   1.5   700 AM  1/24  NWS   KENMORE                0.7   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS...GENESEE COUNTY...   STAFFORD               0.5   700 AM  1/24  NWS EMPLOYEE...JEFFERSON COUNTY...   MANNSVILLE             7.0   700 AM  1/24  POST OFFICE   PIERREPONT MANOR       4.0   700 AM  1/24  POST OFFICE   THERESA                0.3   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS...LEWIS COUNTY...   OSCEOLA               15.0   700 AM  1/22  PUBLIC   CONSTABLEVILLE        10.7   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   CONSTABLEVILLE 1NW     8.5   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...   DANSVILLE              2.1   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS...MONROE COUNTY...   HAMLIN BEACH          11.0   700 AM  1/23  1 DAY TOTAL   HILTON                 8.0   700 AM  1/23  1 DAY TOTAL   PARMA CENTER           7.0   700 AM  1/23  1 DAY TOTAL   ROCHESTER              2.4   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   ROCHESTER INTL ARPT    1.2   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   NORTH CHILI            0.9   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS...NIAGARA COUNTY...   NEWFANE               10.0   700 AM  1/23  1 DAY TOTAL   BARKER                 8.0   700 AM  1/23  1 DAY TOTAL   LOCKPORT               4.5   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   NIAGARA FALLS INTL A   3.8   700 AM  1/24  ASOS   YOUNGSTOWN             3.1   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   PENDLETON              2.5   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   NORTH TONAWANDA        2.2   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS...ORLEANS COUNTY...   LYNDONVILLE           13.0   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP...OSWEGO COUNTY...   FULTON                38.0  1100 AM  1/23  SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY   PHOENIX               36.6  1100 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   PALERMO               36.6   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   BENNETTS BRIDGE       33.0   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   MINETTO               26.9   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   LACONA                24.8   700 AM  1/23  SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY   SANDY CREEK           18.4   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   OSWEGO                17.3   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   MEXICO                14.9  1100 AM  1/24  COCORAHS...WAYNE COUNTY...   SODUS                 12.0   700 AM  1/23  1 DAY TOTAL   WALWORTH               2.7   700 AM  1/24  COCORAHS   PALMYRA                1.3   700 AM  1/24  3 DAY TOTAL...WYOMING COUNTY...   WARSAW                13.2   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP   3 N SILVER SPRINGS     8.5   700 AM  1/24  CO-OP
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Lake Effect Totals over last few days: Picked up around a foot in my location.

 

NEW YORK

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...

RUSHFORD 7.6 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

WEST ALMOND 6.6 700 AM 1/23 SUNDAY TO WED

ALFRED 2.9 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

WHITESVILLE 1.5 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...

PERRYSBURG 25.0 1100 AM 1/24 CO-OP

WEST VALLEY 16.0 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

LITTLE VALLEY 13.5 700 AM 1/23 SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY

RANDOLPH 10.0 700 AM 1/23 SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY

FRANKLINVILLE 9.8 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

ALLEGANY 6.8 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

OLEAN 4.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

...CAYUGA COUNTY...

FAIR HAVEN 36.0 700 AM 1/24 HIGHWAY DEPT

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

RIPLEY 24.8 700 AM 1/24 SUNDAY TO TUESDAY

FORESTVILLE 20.5 700 AM 1/24 SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY

JAMESTOWN 12.1 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

KENNEDY 11.1 700 AM 1/24 SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY

DUNKIRK 8.6 700 AM 1/24 SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY

...ERIE COUNTY...

GLENWOOD 17.5 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

COLDEN 17.1 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

BOSTON 15.5 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

HOLLAND 14.1 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

HAMBURG 12.2 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

WALES 11.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

BLASDELL 7.9 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

EAST AURORA 6.5 700 AM 1/23 SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY

ELMA 5.9 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

EAST AURORA 5.7 700 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE

WEST SENECA 3.5 700 AM 1/24 WEST SIDE OF TOWN

WILLIAMSVILLE 1.6 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 1.5 700 AM 1/24 NWS

KENMORE 0.7 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

...GENESEE COUNTY...

STAFFORD 0.5 700 AM 1/24 NWS EMPLOYEE

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...

MANNSVILLE 7.0 700 AM 1/24 POST OFFICE

PIERREPONT MANOR 4.0 700 AM 1/24 POST OFFICE

THERESA 0.3 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

...LEWIS COUNTY...

OSCEOLA 15.0 700 AM 1/22 PUBLIC

CONSTABLEVILLE 10.7 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

CONSTABLEVILLE 1NW 8.5 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...

DANSVILLE 2.1 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

...MONROE COUNTY...

HAMLIN BEACH 11.0 700 AM 1/23 1 DAY TOTAL

HILTON 8.0 700 AM 1/23 1 DAY TOTAL

PARMA CENTER 7.0 700 AM 1/23 1 DAY TOTAL

ROCHESTER 2.4 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 1.2 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

NORTH CHILI 0.9 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

NEWFANE 10.0 700 AM 1/23 1 DAY TOTAL

BARKER 8.0 700 AM 1/23 1 DAY TOTAL

LOCKPORT 4.5 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

NIAGARA FALLS INTL A 3.8 700 AM 1/24 ASOS

YOUNGSTOWN 3.1 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

PENDLETON 2.5 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

NORTH TONAWANDA 2.2 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

...ORLEANS COUNTY...

LYNDONVILLE 13.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

...OSWEGO COUNTY...

FULTON 38.0 1100 AM 1/23 SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY

PHOENIX 36.6 1100 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

PALERMO 36.6 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

BENNETTS BRIDGE 33.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

MINETTO 26.9 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

LACONA 24.8 700 AM 1/23 SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY

SANDY CREEK 18.4 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

OSWEGO 17.3 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

MEXICO 14.9 1100 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

...WAYNE COUNTY...

SODUS 12.0 700 AM 1/23 1 DAY TOTAL

WALWORTH 2.7 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS

PALMYRA 1.3 700 AM 1/24 3 DAY TOTAL

...WYOMING COUNTY...

WARSAW 13.2 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

3 N SILVER SPRINGS 8.5 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP

Ended up with Sunday to Today total of 10.5" here. Currently - 0.5F breaking the 0 barrier for the first time this season.

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I hate this kind of cold, it is brutal. Can barely spend a few minutes outside without being frozen! Kind of looking forward to a little bit warmer conditions.

I've noticed that the trees on Goat Island at Niagara Falls are getting govered with frozen spray which should make for some picturesque scenes. I actually prefer the falls in winter.

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