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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


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This is an unusual LES band, was very impressive this morning. Just got back in from walking the dog, probably 1"/hr rate and maybe 2" down. Not as impressive as last night's squall but still pretty good. As fate would have it, band appears to be sinking south at a fast rate. So after watching it and it's predecessor hang 5-10 miles north, it now appears that it may totally clear out to the south. Bit of bad luck with this one but flow has been too westerly. My location usually only profits from more of a 290-300 direction that normally results in weaker single bands or the dreaded multi bands. Enjoy though, better than last winter!

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This is an unusual LES band, was very impressive this morning. Just got back in from walking the dog, probably 1"/hr rate and maybe 2" down. Not as impressive as last night's squall but still pretty good. As fate would have it, band appears to be sinking south at a fast rate. So after watching it and it's predecessor hang 5-10 miles north, it now appears that it may totally clear out to the south. Bit of bad luck with this one but flow has been too westerly. My location usually only profits from more of a 290-300 direction that normally results in weaker single bands or the dreaded multi bands. Enjoy though, better than last winter!

I don't know Bri....not really expecting this to go too much further south....maybe orient a little bit more to a 290 orientation, I'm more concerned with the potential of a drastic slackening of the flow....ie band retraction...

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I don't know Bri....not really expecting this to go too much further south....maybe orient a little bit more to a 290 orientation, I'm more concerned with the potential of a drastic slackening of the flow....ie band retraction...

hopefully it hangs on or more likely, reforms. Looks like both effects you cited are occurring...I think we squeeze a few more inches out but the warning level snows looks like a stretch at this point. We should get another shot at some snow entertainment after next week's warm up is pushed out.
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Sections of that diffuse band are actually fairly persistent and intense over portions of NE Niagara county, all of Orleans county, and NW Monroe county right now.  A few more hours and someone will be up near a foot (fluff factor). 

 

The band does show some subtle signs of lifting North though..

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2-4 seems reasonable.

 

The models don't really want to strengthen the band much...so looks like a moderate type thing as opposed to a band where you can pile up quickly.

 

I'd go about 1" here.  

do the models that have a simulated reflectivity know that when its cold out the real reflectivites from radars are much lower than they would appear due to little moisture content in the snow?
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Yeah about the same here to. Radar near Cleveland shows nearly pure SW winds, might make it up to Buffalo this time around. Even over Michigan winds look SW/WSW with decent LES still going over there.

yep the band that is over us now will prob "fall off the lake" within the next hour or so. Then the more pure SW flow will prob regenerate a band close to downtown BUF and slowly shift south as the winds veer more WNW than eventually NW. I can see that band later dropping 1-3" which would be pretty decent on top of the 7 inches here since Monday.
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yep the band that is over us now will prob "fall off the lake" within the next hour or so. Then the more pure SW flow will prob regenerate a band close to downtown BUF and slowly shift south as the winds veer more WNW than eventually NW. I can see that band later dropping 1-3" which would be pretty decent on top of the 7 inches here since Monday.

 

...BAND OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS...A BAND OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKEERIE SHORE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY EXTENDING INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERNAND CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILLREACH AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH BUFFALO AND THE NEARBY SOUTHERNAND EASTERN SUBURBS.SNOWFALL RATES WILL BRIEFLY REACH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH PER HOURWITHIN THIS BAND. ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW COVERED ANDSLIPPERY...RESULTING IN A SLOW AFTERNOON COMMUTE.
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Great Lakes thermal low almost meso-scale dropping southeast across Lake Huron will cross s.w. Ontario tonight and w NY late overnight, winds will turn to NNE by morning and allow the super-frigid air mass banked up over the Ottawa valley to pour across Lake Ontario on 25-35 mph winds, could see some odd effects like squalls heading SW towards Lockport and Buffalo, think IAG to ROC could get a big dump of snow from that (7-12 inches maybe?), Would say 3 inches for BUF out of that and less further south as the inland fetch of this stable layer will be about 30-40 miles before the heavier snow is gone. The only thing standing between this air mass and daytime highs below zero F would be heat advection from Lake Ontario, so parts of upstate NY that get a land trajectory tomorrow will be near zero all day (near -10 F in the St Lawrence valley).

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