LakeEffectKing Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Any chance the Ontario band lifts north again? Stop being greedy! Yes, I expect it to oscillate a few miles north and south...overnight...but not sure by how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This is an unusual LES band, was very impressive this morning. Just got back in from walking the dog, probably 1"/hr rate and maybe 2" down. Not as impressive as last night's squall but still pretty good. As fate would have it, band appears to be sinking south at a fast rate. So after watching it and it's predecessor hang 5-10 miles north, it now appears that it may totally clear out to the south. Bit of bad luck with this one but flow has been too westerly. My location usually only profits from more of a 290-300 direction that normally results in weaker single bands or the dreaded multi bands. Enjoy though, better than last winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Sorry haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This is an unusual LES band, was very impressive this morning. Just got back in from walking the dog, probably 1"/hr rate and maybe 2" down. Not as impressive as last night's squall but still pretty good. As fate would have it, band appears to be sinking south at a fast rate. So after watching it and it's predecessor hang 5-10 miles north, it now appears that it may totally clear out to the south. Bit of bad luck with this one but flow has been too westerly. My location usually only profits from more of a 290-300 direction that normally results in weaker single bands or the dreaded multi bands. Enjoy though, better than last winter! I don't know Bri....not really expecting this to go too much further south....maybe orient a little bit more to a 290 orientation, I'm more concerned with the potential of a drastic slackening of the flow....ie band retraction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I don't know Bri....not really expecting this to go too much further south....maybe orient a little bit more to a 290 orientation, I'm more concerned with the potential of a drastic slackening of the flow....ie band retraction... hopefully it hangs on or more likely, reforms. Looks like both effects you cited are occurring...I think we squeeze a few more inches out but the warning level snows looks like a stretch at this point. We should get another shot at some snow entertainment after next week's warm up is pushed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Sections of that diffuse band are actually fairly persistent and intense over portions of NE Niagara county, all of Orleans county, and NW Monroe county right now. A few more hours and someone will be up near a foot (fluff factor). The band does show some subtle signs of lifting North though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 time to punt Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like Lake Ontario has gone to sleep today eh... I managed a half inch late vyesterday when that Mohawk Valley band dipped in here for about 45 minutes before oscillating back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Frigid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks like the KTYX radar is overshooting most of the lake effect snow near Oswego (and likely other locations near the shoreline) based on the SUNY Oswego webcam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 -10° this morning. Colder tonight maybe?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 A bit over 2" in L'pool last night, with a light snow still falling at the time I left for work. With the cold, and the fresh snow, the feel of winter quickly replaced the feel of nothingness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That shot from Oswego looks the same way here in Hannibal... very small flakes but visibility isn't all that great. And damn it's cold out wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 time to punt Friday. And with the warm-up to follow, BUF is possibly looking at a sub 5" snowfall January (currently at 3.3"). The lowest snowfall recorded in Jan at BUF since 1940 was 5.4" in 1988/1989. That looks to be in jeopardy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 And with the warm-up to follow, BUF is possibly looking at a sub 5" snowfall January (currently at 3.3"). The lowest snowfall recorded in Jan at BUF since 1940 was 5.4" in 1988/1989. That looks to be in jeopardy.... There was 3.4" in 1944. But yeah there's a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Another close call for BUF later this afternoon/evening...much like the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Friday could work out in another way. If the primary northern stream clipper stays dominant ala 12z NAM...we would get cold SW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Another close call for BUF later this afternoon/evening...much like the other day.do you think it will make it to the southtowns? NWS has me down for 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 do you think it will make it to the southtowns? NWS has me down for 2-4". 2-4 seems reasonable. The models don't really want to strengthen the band much...so looks like a moderate type thing as opposed to a band where you can pile up quickly. I'd go about 1" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 2-4 seems reasonable. The models don't really want to strengthen the band much...so looks like a moderate type thing as opposed to a band where you can pile up quickly. I'd go about 1" here. do the models that have a simulated reflectivity know that when its cold out the real reflectivites from radars are much lower than they would appear due to little moisture content in the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For example the traffic cam from the NYST at Dunkirk (time sensitive) show it snowing pretty good while radar reflectivites near dunkirk are only around 12-16 dbz. http://maps.nittec.org/CctvViewer.aspx?ImagePath=liveimages/CCTV_6058.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Moderate snow here. Small flakes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 A bit over 2" in L'pool last night, with a light snow still falling at the time I left for work. With the cold, and the fresh snow, the feel of winter quickly replaced the feel of nothingness. I asked you yesterday if the lake Erie band would make it to my residence. Its here! It made it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I asked you yesterday if the lake Erie band would make it to my residence. Its here! It made it! it sure has. 1.5" in the last hour and a half here. Coming down heavy as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 it sure has. 1.5" in the last hour and a half here. Coming down heavy as we speak. Yeah about the same here to. Radar near Cleveland shows nearly pure SW winds, might make it up to Buffalo this time around. Even over Michigan winds look SW/WSW with decent LES still going over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yeah about the same here to. Radar near Cleveland shows nearly pure SW winds, might make it up to Buffalo this time around. Even over Michigan winds look SW/WSW with decent LES still going over there.yep the band that is over us now will prob "fall off the lake" within the next hour or so. Then the more pure SW flow will prob regenerate a band close to downtown BUF and slowly shift south as the winds veer more WNW than eventually NW. I can see that band later dropping 1-3" which would be pretty decent on top of the 7 inches here since Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 yep the band that is over us now will prob "fall off the lake" within the next hour or so. Then the more pure SW flow will prob regenerate a band close to downtown BUF and slowly shift south as the winds veer more WNW than eventually NW. I can see that band later dropping 1-3" which would be pretty decent on top of the 7 inches here since Monday. ...BAND OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS...A BAND OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKEERIE SHORE OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY EXTENDING INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERNAND CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILLREACH AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH BUFFALO AND THE NEARBY SOUTHERNAND EASTERN SUBURBS.SNOWFALL RATES WILL BRIEFLY REACH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH PER HOURWITHIN THIS BAND. ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW COVERED ANDSLIPPERY...RESULTING IN A SLOW AFTERNOON COMMUTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Great Lakes thermal low almost meso-scale dropping southeast across Lake Huron will cross s.w. Ontario tonight and w NY late overnight, winds will turn to NNE by morning and allow the super-frigid air mass banked up over the Ottawa valley to pour across Lake Ontario on 25-35 mph winds, could see some odd effects like squalls heading SW towards Lockport and Buffalo, think IAG to ROC could get a big dump of snow from that (7-12 inches maybe?), Would say 3 inches for BUF out of that and less further south as the inland fetch of this stable layer will be about 30-40 miles before the heavier snow is gone. The only thing standing between this air mass and daytime highs below zero F would be heat advection from Lake Ontario, so parts of upstate NY that get a land trajectory tomorrow will be near zero all day (near -10 F in the St Lawrence valley). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Let the freezing begin. =/ Loads of LES on southwest flow over nearly 70% of the lake...Are winds out of the NW around here, do you expect that band to make it up to Buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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