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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


Alpha5

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12"/hr rates. Wow. Make sure that gets reported to the NWS. Thats incredible! NWS has 1-3" tomorrow and 3-5" tomorrow night for me here which is more than I expected. Also has wind chills to -15 Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Pretty wintry week ahead.!

 

I think we may get a nice surprise tomorrow. Hopefully midnight models agree!

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12"/hr rates. Wow. Make sure that gets reported to the NWS. Thats incredible! NWS has 1-3" tomorrow and 3-5" tomorrow night for me here which is more than I expected. Also has wind chills to -15 Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Pretty wintry week ahead.!

Not 12"/hr.....remember at that fall rate, there would be tremendous settling....rates are what you measure....and that is a 4"/20 min.....if it fell exactly at that rate for an entire hour....it'd probably come in at 9"/hr.....(depending on wind, flake size etc....)

 

That said, he has 14" total for the since 4pm....still with vis at less than 1/8 mi.

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Left Fulton around 4:30 pm in heavy snow.  Drove through the heart of the band between Fulton and Hannibal - easily 2"/hr.  Went from heavy snow to sun in less than a 1/2 mile just south of the Rt 104/34 intersection.  Looks like the band edged slightly south since I drove through.  Will be surprised if someone doesn't break the 12" mark near the Fulton/Hannibal area.  

Ahhh rt 34. I had some nail biting rides on that stretch of road few yrs ago. Espeically between 104 and 370 is it, in Cato.. Never had been on the road before, rolling at about 100,000lbs in a load semi, in the dark and heavy lake effect snow....WOW!  I thought those hills were going to be the end of me..

Rev, do you live south of 104 on 34?

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lol well there was a certain hockey game earlier followed by work until 10.

 

HAHA! It was a great one as well! Hopefully we can string another win tomorrow against the Leafs! How intense do you think the band will be? You think it will drift into Metro? Also are the steering winds directed from purely land breeze. (Won't go very far inland?)

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HAHA! It was a great one as well! Hopefully we can string another win tomorrow against the Leafs! How intense do you think the band will be? You think it will drift into Metro? Also are the steering winds directed from purely land breeze. (Won't go very far inland?)

yeah it should get here....most likely time will be around 00z just as the shortwave passes.  Also, maybe in the morning around 12z.

 

And I think it will be pretty intense...but the duration is the issue.  While 850-700mb winds are good for BUF just about all day...the surface wind backs in the morning....then veers again in the afternoon...then backs in the evening.  The afternoon veering is caused by the induction of weak cyclogenesis extending not only from Georgian Bay...but all the way SE to near Long Island.  

 

NAM BUFKIT has a classic LES signature in the evening with good omega centered in a saturated SGZ.

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yeah it should get here....most likely time will be around 00z just as the shortwave passes.  Also, maybe in the morning around 12z.

 

And I think it will be pretty intense...but the duration is the issue.  While 850-700mb winds are good for BUF just about all day...the surface wind backs in the morning....then veers again in the afternoon...then backs in the evening.  The afternoon veering is caused by the induction of weak cyclogenesis extending not only from Georgian Bay...but all the way SE to near Long Island.  

 

NAM BUFKIT has a classic LES signature in the evening with good omega centered in a saturated SGZ.

 

Awesome Thanks! How much you thinking for the area if the band stalls for a few hours in any given location? Latest WRF shows .75-1 inch QPF(obviously overdone) over the south towns for tomorrow.

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Last 2 runs of ARW. HRW showing around .5 around this area. Also what is your take on the potential for Weds afternoon/evening LES?

 

The ARW is getting a bit too happy with LES...especially in the afternoon tomorrow.  Notice the big difference if you look at the NMM core.

 

I'd go negative on Wednesday afternoon/evening.  It's only the NAM that's showing that really strong shortwave.  The Euro and the GFS don't have it, therefore they don't back the winds nearly as much as the NAM.  While the NAM is nice at picking up LES bands within 24 to 36 hours...it sucks balls on general synoptics at that range compared to the global models.

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LES warning for areas south of BUF. 8-16" in most persistent bands but even 6-12" here in the southtowns of BUF (Hamburg,OP,EA) according to NWS. Kind of surprised to see they didn't hoist an advisory for Northern Erie for 3-5 maybe 4-6" if it makes it up to West Seneca or even downtown... Wind chill advisory also issued for wind chills below -15F.

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There's a definite land breeze circulation right now over Lake Ontario with northerly winds on the north shore of the lake and more southerly winds on the south shore. There is also a bit of a land breeze signal over Lake Erie, though there aren't as many surface obs on the northern shore.

 

post-869-0-86656100-1358774337_thumb.png

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Ended up with 18" here in Hannibal and more coming tomorrow it looks like. Just talked to a friend who lives about 10 miles south of me and they have nothing... looks like 10 miles north(Oswego) didn't get all that much either.

I got about 13 inches here in Brewerton most of which fell between 8 PM and about 2 or 3 this morning.  The narrow band set up over southern Oswego/extreme northern Onondaga counties and remained steady state most of the night.  I got an unofficial report from my niece about 4 miles west of Central Square of 30 inches!

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Very often as LES events wind down in a cold profile, the lowest levels (below radar level) will still be able to "hold it's own" as levels above dry out.  (ie...you're snow is coming from relatively unstable, shallow, low levels.)

 

Thanks!

A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE LAKEERIE SHORE FROM NEAR ANGOLA SOUTHWEST TO RIPLEY THROUGH LATEMORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELYWITHIN THIS BAND. ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ANDVISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
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