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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


Alpha5

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I'm thinking i will be in one of the jackpot area's for some serious lake effect snow tonight it's starting to come down hard with whiteout conditions with the wind. Getting crazy here. Southwest corner of oswego county.

 

Yea there's a nice looking band on the radar right now going through Sterling to Fulton and points east from there. It doesn't look to move much in at least the next 6 hours based on the HRRR 850 mb winds. A bit of a Lake Huron connection enhancing the band right now though may dissipate as the winds over Lake Huron become more westerly.

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Missing out in Phoenix. I thought the WRF showed a clean sweep followed by a reorg. Looks steady state to me. Gotta be 1 to 2" per hour in core.

SUNY SB MM5 has been pretty much locked in on this event.....no clean sweep, and a steady 8-12 hours of snow....the band looks to verify about 8-10 miles north of earlier runs

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The heaviest part of the band is just north of me right now... it's coming down here but not like it was.

 

Left Fulton around 4:30 pm in heavy snow.  Drove through the heart of the band between Fulton and Hannibal - easily 2"/hr.  Went from heavy snow to sun in less than a 1/2 mile just south of the Rt 104/34 intersection.  Looks like the band edged slightly south since I drove through.  Will be surprised if someone doesn't break the 12" mark near the Fulton/Hannibal area.  

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The eastern part of band seems to be sweeping south some to me now over the southern Dacks and approaching the Mohawk Valley.

 

A typical 20 minute thrill here maybe as it sweeps past if this keeps up.  LOL

Missing out in Phoenix. I thought the WRF showed a clean sweep followed by a reorg. Looks steady state to me. Gotta be 1 to 2" per hour in core.

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LOCATION               6 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                     SNOWFALL           OF                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...OSWEGO COUNTY...   PALERMO                7.0   656 PM  1/20  SINCE 4 PM   PENNELLVILLE           6.0   659 PM  1/20  TRAINED SPOTTER

 

LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                        GUST            OF                         MPH    MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY...   1 W WELLSVILLE ARPT     55   819 AM  1/20  ASOS...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...   DUNKIRK                 69   507 AM  1/20  C-MAN STATION   BARCELONA               62   600 AM  1/20  C-MAN STATION   1 SE JAMESTOWN ARPT     59   611 AM  1/20  AWOS   1 N DUNKIRK MUNI ARP    55   504 AM  1/20  ASOS...ERIE COUNTY...   NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT    61   451 AM  1/20  ASOS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...   1 NE WATERTOWN ARPT     62   600 AM  1/20  ASOS   FORT DRUM               54   914 AM  1/20  ASOS...LEZ041...   BUFFALO                 62   500 AM  1/20  COAST GUARD...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...   LIVONIA                 51   730 AM  1/20  TRAINED SPOTTER   DANSVILLE MUNI ARPT     46   732 AM  1/20  ASOS...LOZ042...   OLCOTT                  66   640 AM  1/20  C-MAN STATION...MONROE COUNTY...   ROCHESTER INTL ARPT     59   626 AM  1/20  ASOS...NIAGARA COUNTY...   NIAGARA FALLS INTL A    61   243 AM  1/20  ASOS   YOUNGSTOWN              59   630 AM  1/20  COAST GUARD...OSWEGO COUNTY...   OSWEGO                  77   948 AM  1/20  COAST GUARD   OSWEGO COUNTY ARPT      53   951 AM  1/20  ASOS
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Bands should intensify over night and especially tomorrow. I can see the Tug getting a total of 2-3 feet by Wednesday. Maybe 1-2 feet for Chautauqua ridge. Looks like a solid 3-4 star long duration event. (Low Population Impacts)

 

Looking nice at Holiday Valley.  Great timing for them with the holiday tomorrow.  

 

http://www.onthesnow.com/new-york/holiday-valley/webcams.html  

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Lake Effect Snow Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

808 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

NYZ004>006-210915-

/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130121T1800Z/

WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO

808 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST

MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND WAYNE COUNTIES.

HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN OSWEGO...NORTHERN

CAYUGA AND NORTHEAST WAYNE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 15 INCHES TONIGHT AND 3 TO 5 INCHES

MONDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT

TRAVEL WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS

AT TIMES.

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Update....Dad just called back...cleared his deck off 20minutes ago (when I got his measurement) his words..."snowing as hard as I've ever seen it"...4" in 20 minutes.....

12"/hr rates. Wow. Make sure that gets reported to the NWS. Thats incredible! NWS has 1-3" tomorrow and 3-5" tomorrow night for me here which is more than I expected. Also has wind chills to -15 Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Pretty wintry week ahead.!
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