OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 They maybe over hyping to a certain extent, but the amount of low level convergence that will be ongoing along with wide open lakes and orographic effects will give the areas south of BUF (Ski areas??) a chance at well over a foot of snow over 2-3 days....ESE of Ontario we MAY be able to get a decent band going for a bit into Monday morning before the AF slides through...and if it "slides" through slow enough, we could be looking at several hours of "tremendous" rates off Ontario Sun. night. Mon. afternoon, we will transition into much less intense banding and most likely much smaller dendrite sizes. Still can accumulate around these parts in that scenario. As for Accuweather's proclaimation that ART and BUF will see heavy LES??? That's not going to happen...at least for any substantial length of time....say for SUN morn.. I'm having an extremely difficult time figuring out where the bands are going to be for the next 3 or 4 days. The wind direction is so changeable and sheared at times. From the looks of things now, even the Tug will have a tough time Sunday. The wind veers to about 290 right around the time the les conditions become more ideal. Wayne County to SW Oswego County might be do okay on Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 In in sw Oswego County so that works for me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 buf's nam wrf is starting to get in range now. Has a decent LES band along the front Sunday afternoon...but it breaks off the lake and shifts south of the lake with the wind shift. Syracuse/Oswego/northern Finger Lakes etc. would pick up a few inches in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 last night's MM5 doesn't bring the arctic front through so quick so it maintains 290 flow or so over LO through 12z Monday. Actually paints a decent band and precip totals for the Fulton to Central Square area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Wind Adv. upgraded to a High Wind Warning tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 last night's MM5 doesn't bring the arctic front through so quick so it maintains 290 flow or so over LO through 12z Monday. Actually paints a decent band and precip totals for the Fulton to Central Square area.hows everything looking off Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 hows everything looking off Erie. looked alright for the jamestown area...not quite as robust as Lake Ontario...maybe 6" down there? idk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 last night's MM5 doesn't bring the arctic front through so quick so it maintains 290 flow or so over LO through 12z Monday. Actually paints a decent band and precip totals for the Fulton to Central Square area. I'll be in Fulton tonight through tomorrow, so this would work for me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 last night's MM5 doesn't bring the arctic front through so quick so it maintains 290 flow or so over LO through 12z Monday. Actually paints a decent band and precip totals for the Fulton to Central Square area. It (MM5) does VERY well, from my previous use of it, in depicting the placement/orientation of any lake induced convergence (trough) in modified arctic airmasses....almost always these zones of convergence (in an otherwise weak BL flow) tend to migrate (get stuck) to a parallel shoreline convergence area...and have occasionally observed this on L. Erie as well with a more SW flow pattern, but more often on L. Ontario...now if the AF has enough depth to it, it certainly will be enough to overcome this phenomena....we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'll be in Fulton tonight through tomorrow, so this would work for me.... I'd look more for a timeframe of late Sunday evening/night into Monday morning/afternoon...I'm pretty confident watches will be flying for areas ESE of Ontario (and potentially) for the ski areas south of Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Ended up with 8" here. Bring on the vodka cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Advisories up for a bunch of CNY Counties ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AMEST MONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKEEFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO8 AM EST MONDAY.* LOCATIONS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ONONDAGA COUNTY.* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTSPOSSIBLE.* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY LATEAFTERNOON AND FLUCTUATE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ON SUNDAYAFTERNOON, DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL BEREDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Welcome to the area Buffalo Bumble... i live 10 minutes to the west of Fulton... hopefully im in the jackpot area for the Lake Effect... have a advisory out right now for 5-8" bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Winds are ripping here. Theres a roar to the wind I honestly havnt heard in years. TWC just said Buffalo just had a gust between 60-70mph in the last few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Winds are ripping here. Theres a roar to the wind I honestly havnt heard in years. TWC just said Buffalo just had a gust between 60-70mph in the last few minutes. KBUF 200954Z 24031G53KT 10SM BKN034 BKN040 OVC060 06/00 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 25053/0951 SLP983 T00610000 $ Peak wind gust of 53kt or 61mph at Buffalo in the last 15 minutes. I will be real interested to see their next ob though, I feel that a max gust near 70 is entirely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Torching right now at 40F....hard to believe it's going down to -10F tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 highest gust I could find was 69mph at the Dunkirk C-MAN station. That isn't exactly an official station since the anemometer is located 20.4m above site elevation. Looks like warning criteria gusts were pretty widespread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The surface station at SUNY Oswego reported a 57 mph gust a few minutes ago. http://www.oswego.edu/met_class/tower/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 00z mm5 is really nice for SE of Lake Ontario. 06z WRF still wants to shove the arctic front through...but it does waver back...producing an intense band of LES once again over northern Wayne/northern Cayuga/southern Oswego/northern Onondaga Counties starting early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We probably see some cool/odd looking mid-lake bands as we head into Monday through Wednesday. The surface flow is light at times...and with the psuedostationary arctic front...the bands won't necessarily be over land. Maybe some MCVs embedded at times, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The surface station at SUNY Oswego reported a 57 mph gust a few minutes ago. http://www.oswego.edu/met_class/tower/index.html i was just out on the L Ontario shoreline, next to the SUNY Oswego campus. I would guess the wind was still gusting well over 50 mph. Waves were ripping - easily breaking over 8 feet. Try to post some pics later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We probably see some cool/odd looking mid-lake bands as we head into Monday through Wednesday. The surface flow is light at times...and with the psuedostationary arctic front...the bands won't necessarily be over land. Maybe some MCVs embedded at times, too? Some very intense winds early this morning, woke me up a few times throughout the night. We had one of those I can remember that barely made it over land a few miles at most and produced 3-5 inches of fluff in a matter of 1-2 hours. Was quite insane as it was not predicted by NWS at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 i was just out on the L Ontario shoreline, next to the SUNY Oswego campus. I would guess the wind was still gusting well over 50 mph. Waves were ripping - easily breaking over 8 feet. Try to post some pics later. There were a couple of 61 mph gusts at around noon based on the station obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We probably see some cool/odd looking mid-lake bands as we head into Monday through Wednesday. The surface flow is light at times...and with the psuedostationary arctic front...the bands won't necessarily be over land. Maybe some MCVs embedded at times, too? Yea it seems likely there will be a strong land breeze at times given the light synoptic pressure gradient and very cold air. That may lead to a lake mesovortex around the more circular eastern shore of Lake Ontario. A tea kettle band may also develop from the land breeze circulation with snow staying mainly near the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Front passed through here in Ithaca a few hours ago and temperatures have fallen into the 20s. Winds have decreased for the time being and snow flurries have just begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yea it seems likely there will be a strong land breeze at times given the light synoptic pressure gradient and very cold air. That may lead to a lake mesovortex around the more circular eastern shore of Lake Ontario. A tea kettle band may also develop from the land breeze circulation with snow staying mainly near the shoreline. Somewhere between Fulton and Sodus will receive well over a foot of snow between late this afternoon and Tues. morn....and most likely much more in a few "lucky" spots. Tea kettle snow with a drift inland can put out some of the best "non-orograpically enhanced" snowfall rates....especially as the lowest levels winds die way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hey OSU what's your take on this? http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/248/hrwarweus048precipp48.gif/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 BTW, for the BUF ski towns...should be a 2-3 star event, IMO. Latest WRF (GFS based) mm5 from BUF meso's shows a fairly long lasting multi-lake band exiting off L. Ontario for N. Wayne, N. Cayuga, S. Oswego and Onondaga Counties....after tonight, I'd think this progged band will shrink back toward the lake much more than the model is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 There were a couple of 61 mph gusts at around noon based on the station obs. From the 12:48pm NWS forecast discussion: THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AT THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE THE STATION ON THE PIER AT OSWEGO JUST REPORTED A 67 KNOT GUST LAST HOUR. Just about when i was out there - so that's what a 77 mph wind gust feels like...I could barely open my truck door, let alone stand up straight, so i figured it was easily over 50 mph. 70 mph+, that's pretty cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The CIPS analogs continue to be bullish about significant lake effect snow from Monday into Wednesday. Below is the mean 72 hr snowfall of the top 15 analogs centered around 00z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.