OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 No, not really. the details of what you mention, IMO, (at 4+ day leads) are highly variable. My "increase" in confidence is more borne in seeing a decent amount of moisture through during the drawn out event. Many shortwaves will most likely be embedding in the mostly laminar flow, which certainly would "straighten" up the shear many times....but again, those details (shear and moisture) can still vary a decent amount at these lead times. Also, we have been LES starved for quite some time....so maybe my "enthusiasm" is a bit hypersensitive to that fact. well to be fair, I don't see moisture being all that major of a problem either, at least for Sunday. However, we might have 40 kt sustained on the lake which could cause some issues...but I'd think heavy snow for some period of time for the Tug itself as orographic lift would be nice. I could see someone in Pulaski getting screwed in that scenario, though, as the band wouldn't organize over the lake itself due to the strong winds. I think the shear is legit. If you notice...the streamwise vorticity stays along Lake Ontario or just to the north....you want to be north of that area. Compared the vort to feb 4, 2007...that shear axis was over the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm talking early next week.... I agree. The period from late Monday into Wednesday is starting to show some potential for significant lake effect snow, especially east of Lake Ontario. There looks to be a decent amount of moisture up through 700 mb associated with a shortwave and cold 850 mb temps around -20C. While these temperature will lead to high LI instability, they may also make snow growth a bit less favorable. This scenario is depicted by both the 12z GFS and Euro, with the Euro having a slightly more northwesterly flow at 850 mb. The CIPS analogs based on the 120 hr GFS pick up on this potential as well, with several impressive events for the eastern Lake Ontario region showing up as matches. A few matches were also significant events for areas west of Lake Erie. A more northerly flow as shown by the Euro would obviously be less favorable for those parts of WNY. The models right now are showing a fairly static 850 mb height field for this period. This may allow for a more stationary band to set up leading to impressive totals for a narrow region. It's still early, but there seems to be a decent chance of lake effect snow especially for parts of CNY Monday into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Decent burst of snow here over the last hour. At least enough to whiten things back up again to go along with the very cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 At this point I'd favor 6-12" accumulations for the upslope region of the Tug Hill, mostly on Sunday. Maybe another area of 3-6" for the hilltops of the Chautauqua Ridge...and areas that benefit from 300 flow...from Rochester to Oswego..maybe as far south as Syracuse. A general 1-2" with the initial front on Sunday. Everything shuts off late Sunday/early Monday as the arctic front drops through and surface winds go north. Then perhaps another start up of multiband les on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Decent burst of snow here over the last hour. At least enough to whiten things back up again to go along with the very cold air. ya snowing like a boss right now. Solid inch or so. Very cold out there. Wind chill here is exactly 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Anyone watching the Kbuf radar? Super shallow lake effect on Ontario moving East to West, while deeper flow just above is moving West to East. You can see strange interactions undulate through the bands as the forcing and shear moves through. 'Very cool stuff. Note- I tried several times to upload a GIF of the current radar but it failed to animate. Anyone have any suggestions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 most interesting thing for BUF the next 7 days will probably be the high winds on early Sunday morning lol. The most disconcerting thing that I'm seeing is that there is no defined surface low north of the lakes beyond Sunday. You basically have high pressure bisected by a weak thermal trough extending from Lake Ontario to the upper lakes. A loop of GFS BUFKIT shows the very changeable sfc-900mb winds undercutting fairly well-defined 850 to 700mb west to northwest winds through the period. It's more than just oh I live in Buffalo and i need SW winds to have good LES problem...it's a general problem for the next week. just to illustrate my point further: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'm not sure why but the bottom of the images where the low-level winds are located got cut off. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Neat looking convergence right along Lake Ontario in Niagara County: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=buf&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Snow is coming down fairly hard at my house right now... nice band coming off lake ontario. I live right on the southwest corner of oswego county. Sweet let it snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Euro is very cold on Wednesday. lows around -30F in northern NY....below zero just about everywhere in NYS. Highs in the high single numbers on the lake plain....highs near zero in the higher elevations of the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Closing in on 6" and still coming down fairly hard... big fluffy flakes. Nice surprise with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Closing in on 6" and still coming down fairly hard... big fluffy flakes. Nice surprise with the snow. Congrats....definitely overachieved. As Nick has correctly pointed out, early next week will be dependent upon the thermal low and it's direct impact on the area wrt LES orientation and dry air sneaking in from the north. I'm not sold completely on the idea (yet) that ESE, SE and S of the lakes won't end up with significant accumulations....but Nick's points are absolutely sound as we are getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 just catching up on the thread we lost all of our snow in st albans to burlington vermont corridor during the thaw. only some snow piles remained. i finally took the drive back to ottawa yesterday for the first time this winter. no snow at the border, and very little S of montreal. as i drove into S burbs and downtown montreal, there was a covering with some open patches. as i headed west to the West island, coverage and depth increased dramatically. then it got dark between montreal and ottawa lol. but there was a solid snowpack all the way. as i pulled into ottawa, i was shocked at the amount of snow still on the ground despite the recent 4 day thaw. basically 95% + coverage except where snow gets windblown and doesnt pile up well. otherwise looks about a foot of solid glacier on the ground, and driveway piles topping out to 5 feet in spots. i can only imagine how much snow was on the ground before the thaw! my dad tells me that at least 50% of the snow melted, probably closder to 2/3rds!! ill post up some pics tomorrow after a day walk....defintely was not expecting to see a mid winters scene after the snow got blasted away in northern vermont. We definately lost close to half of our snowpack....it rivaled 07/08 before the thaw. But as you can see, we've had winter in Otawa since it started on the 21st of December. Enjoy the freezer today PS. the canal opened today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Ended with 6" of pure fluff but i'll take lol. Sun is out now but sure does look better around here with the ground white again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 could end up being an extended period of light synoptic snow for a good portion of the area as the vort max dives down...tries to induce coastal cyclogenesis but we just end up with a trough extending from the weak OTS low linking up with the thermal trough over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 could end up being an extended period of light synoptic snow for a good portion of the area as the vort max dives down...tries to induce coastal cyclogenesis but we just end up with a trough extending from the weak OTS low linking up with the thermal trough over the lakes.when would this be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 when would this be? oh sorry...that meant to say Monday. I could see like 2-4" or maybe a 3-6" type deal of really fluffy snow if this break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 day 7 is looking interesting for us. We'll have to see how that miller b/clipper redeveloper/swfe trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Local forecaster calling for 6-8" tonight and tomorrow....it's been cold up here! -15F this am, and getting much colder next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Local forecaster calling for 6-8" tonight and tomorrow....it's been cold up here! -15F this am, and getting much colder next week. Who was that? JJ Clark? You guys are having an amazing winter! Toronto looks to get into some of the action this upcoming week, in terms of cold that is. Have to feel bad for chicago though; they're getting completely shut out of snow. Historic snow drought for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 day 7 is looking interesting for us. We'll have to see how that miller b/clipper redeveloper/swfe trends. Oddly enough, the 18z GFS has no sign of a storm at all on day 7!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Oddly enough, the 18z GFS has no sign of a storm at all on day 7!? it won't be there every run...come on now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well, I'm personally cheering on the arctic cold as I plan to go to goat island at Niagara Falls sometime in February to take pictures of the winter wonderland created by spray freezing to the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Who was that? JJ Clark? You guys are having an amazing winter! Toronto looks to get into some of the action this upcoming week, in terms of cold that is. Have to feel bad for chicago though; they're getting completely shut out of snow. Historic snow drought for them. No it was Richard Zerowski on the radio...after the last couple of winters, we certainly can't complain here in Ottawa. It's been steady since he 21st. Now the cold has been a little annoying....the wind nearly shattered my face this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Hey OSU look at this garbage...What's your take? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/lakeeffect-snow-machine-feet-o/4403078 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think you know my feeling on that Hey OSU look at this garbage...What's your take? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/lakeeffect-snow-machine-feet-o/4403078 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 No it was Richard Zerowski on the radio...after the last couple of winters, we certainly can't complain here in Ottawa. It's been steady since he 21st. Now the cold has been a little annoying....the wind nearly shattered my face this morning. Just wait until this upcoming week. Just remember that it's cold like this which prevents tropical diseases, along with large killer insects (including killer spiders) like the ones found in Australia from being able to survive up in these northern latitudes. Our climate is actually healthier than that of the Carribean because of our cold winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 4.5" of fluff at 5:30am....It's a winter wonderland out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think you know my feeling on that They maybe over hyping to a certain extent, but the amount of low level convergence that will be ongoing along with wide open lakes and orographic effects will give the areas south of BUF (Ski areas??) a chance at well over a foot of snow over 2-3 days....ESE of Ontario we MAY be able to get a decent band going for a bit into Monday morning before the AF slides through...and if it "slides" through slow enough, we could be looking at several hours of "tremendous" rates off Ontario Sun. night. Mon. afternoon, we will transition into much less intense banding and most likely much smaller dendrite sizes. Still can accumulate around these parts in that scenario. As for Accuweather's proclaimation that ART and BUF will see heavy LES??? That's not going to happen...at least for any substantial length of time....say for SUN morn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.