BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 that's the anomaly...not the actual mid-level low position. So what's your take on the LES potential for next week? Still to far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The latest euro on weather underground showed 2-3 possibilities of lake enhanced snow with those moisture starved clippers. I think we can get a few over achievers out of them. At least I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So how'd things end up? And for the record, I've lived in WNY for 32 years...and am quite familiar with this entire area...including boonville. I don't think forecasting that the snow 2 and half hours down the road from me was going to melt was that outlandish or ignrorant. I didnt really crack the case with this one ....the models and overall pattern were pretty conducive for extreme melting. Had it from the daughter (stuck behind the desk myself); pretty consistent 8" of hardened cement on the flats with the big gullies and drainways showing open ground- this is right in the village and immediate area. Anything shoveled or plowed is clear and the banks and piles are down to about 2/3 of where we started. Keep in mind that the air temperature forecasts for here almost always overshoot- at near freezing temps it makes a big difference- and a lot of SW'erly precip breaks up as it climbs the hill from Rome. Automated forecasts are nearly useless for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 that's the anomaly...not the actual mid-level low position. Nick, you guys don't know how to treat a guest. I've been up here the last two weeks working in downtown Buffalo (staying in Amherst) and this is some boring weather (I was back home stuck in the low - mid 40s during your weekend torch). I'll be back again the week after next and would appreciate a very cold 250 flow with no cap. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 How's it looking for Lake Effect chances for next week for the CNY area? Sick of looking at green grass and my snowmobile collecting dust in the garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 How's it looking for Lake Effect chances for next week for the CNY area? Sick of looking at green grass and my snowmobile collecting dust in the garage. It's looking "very" promising.....Potentially Super significant event...lots of details of course....But just from the consensus progged 500 mb flow and vorticity channel positions, we are setting the table..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nick, you guys don't know how to treat a guest. I've been up here the last two weeks working in downtown Buffalo (staying in Amherst) and this is some boring weather (I was back home stuck in the low - mid 40s during your weekend torch). I'll be back again the week after next and would appreciate a very cold 250 850 flow with no cap. Thanks in advance. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 About 3" on the ground here with some light dendrites falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Rouge band from the storm effecting SNE has parked it's self over the north country and is snowing on northern dacks/burlington area/northern greens at moderate intensity at the moment. Coming down hard on Whiteface webcam which is something they despratley need, BTV saying dusting-2" for north country and as always locally higher in the favored mountain areas. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's looking "very" promising.....Potentially Super significant event...lots of details of course....But just from the consensus progged 500 mb flow and vorticity channel positions, we are setting the table..... Ohh EXCITING!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ohh EXCITING!! Exciting indeed! Some of those bands always seem to make it over to my neck of the woods -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEEPENING LOW...WITHBELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAKSYSTEMS WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MODEL GUIDANCEHAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS. FOR NOW WILLJUST RUN WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.THE AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUTWITHOUT THE DETAILS OF THE TRACKS OF THE WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPERS THEWIND DIRECTIONS...SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE UNKNOWN FORSEVERAL DAYS TO COME WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY ATTEMPT TO FORECAST LAKEEFFECT POTENTIAL JUST YET This sounds a bit more optimistic than the disco from yesterday. They said only "nusance accumulations expected" which is quite the statement for a 7 day lead forecast in a relatively favorable longwave pattern. However, there's nothing as of yet that is having me jump for joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS. FOR NOW WILL JUST RUN WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT WITHOUT THE DETAILS OF THE TRACKS OF THE WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPERS THE WIND DIRECTIONS...SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE UNKNOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY ATTEMPT TO FORECAST LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL JUST YET This sounds a bit more optimistic than the disco from yesterday. They said only "nusance accumulations expected" which is quite the statement for a 7 day lead forecast in a relatively favorable longwave pattern. However, there's nothing as of yet that is having me jump for joy. Then there is this!! FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 19 – WEDNESDAY JANUARY 23: AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE CONUS THIS PERIOD, BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS WELL AS HIGH WINDS TO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW, POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY THE CLIPPER. HOWEVER, AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED PRECLUDING AN AREA FROM BEING IDENTIFIED AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE LAKES. AS THE CLIPPER TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST COAST MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS (30 KNOTS OR GREATER) DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND SPEEDS TO ALSO IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF A HAZARD AREA FOR THIS REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS. FOR NOW WILL JUST RUN WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT WITHOUT THE DETAILS OF THE TRACKS OF THE WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPERS THE WIND DIRECTIONS...SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE UNKNOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY ATTEMPT TO FORECAST LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL JUST YET This sounds a bit more optimistic than the disco from yesterday. They said only "nusance accumulations expected" which is quite the statement for a 7 day lead forecast in a relatively favorable longwave pattern. However, there's nothing as of yet that is having me jump for joy. COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTING IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS. FOR NOW WILL JUST RUN WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT WITHOUT THE DETAILS OF THE TRACKS OF THE WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPERS THE WIND DIRECTIONS...SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE UNKNOWN FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY ATTEMPT TO FORECAST LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL JUST YET This sounds a bit more optimistic than the disco from yesterday. They said only "nusance accumulations expected" which is quite the statement for a 7 day lead forecast in a relatively favorable longwave pattern. However, there's nothing as of yet that is having me jump for joy. Yeah way too early to get really excited, but if (as many models/runs have projected) we do indeed end up with a pattern that puts us in the location near to the axis of a quasi-stationary, broad based trough at H500 with 850's as progged (potentially), there will be significant LES snows. Some of the bigger events in the past have the same exact signals....(12/01-1/02,1/04, 2/07) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 LOL at BGM disco: OVERALL...SO FOR NOW WENT ALONG WITH HPC POPS GENERALLY IN SLIGHTTO LOW CHANCE RANGE /POPS HIGHEST WITH ARCTIC FRONT MONDAY IN30-50 PCT RANGE/. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING AROUND MINUS-20CELSIUS BY TUESDAY...JUST ABOUT ANY PASSING CLOUD WILL AT LEASTPRODUCE LIGHT SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH ABOUT THE SAME WATER CONTENTAS STYROFOAM. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 With the current forecasted temperatures and lake erie hovering around 36/37 degrees we have about 3-4 weeks left before it freezes. I would say the next month of winter will decide how well Kbuf does in terms of snowfall. If we don't get a decent hit in the next 2-3 weeks we will not come anywhere near close to normal in terms of snowfall for the year. We've basically had one LES event all year even including the Southern Tier. We average around 8-12 events per year usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 just catching up on the thread we lost all of our snow in st albans to burlington vermont corridor during the thaw. only some snow piles remained. i finally took the drive back to ottawa yesterday for the first time this winter. no snow at the border, and very little S of montreal. as i drove into S burbs and downtown montreal, there was a covering with some open patches. as i headed west to the West island, coverage and depth increased dramatically. then it got dark between montreal and ottawa lol. but there was a solid snowpack all the way. as i pulled into ottawa, i was shocked at the amount of snow still on the ground despite the recent 4 day thaw. basically 95% + coverage except where snow gets windblown and doesnt pile up well. otherwise looks about a foot of solid glacier on the ground, and driveway piles topping out to 5 feet in spots. i can only imagine how much snow was on the ground before the thaw! my dad tells me that at least 50% of the snow melted, probably closder to 2/3rds!! ill post up some pics tomorrow after a day walk....defintely was not expecting to see a mid winters scene after the snow got blasted away in northern vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 LEK, I meant 250 degree boundary wind direction, not 850 temps. I assumed that direction would work for downtown BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 LEK, I meant 250 degree boundary wind direction, not 850 temps. I assumed that direction would work for downtown BUF. My Bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Another day closer....confidence a bit higher for a Sun.-Tues.(at least) major LES event. The typical fly in the ointment at these leads is dry air....and the latest runs of the GFS and NAM, hint of a decent moisture plume over both Erie and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Another day closer....confidence a bit higher for a Sun.-Tues.(at least) major LES event. The typical fly in the ointment at these leads is dry air....and the latest runs of the GFS and NAM, hint of a decent moisture plume over both Erie and Ontario. What you thinking for a wind direction? I'm kinda partial to a 270° flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Another day closer....confidence a bit higher for a Sun.-Tues.(at least) major LES event. The typical fly in the ointment at these leads is dry air....and the latest runs of the GFS and NAM, hint of a decent moisture plume over both Erie and Ontario. have you taken a look at the surface winds? There's an arctic front that passes through the induces a ton of shear...and then a low develops to the south inducing northerly surface flow with WNW 850 winds. It's super windy on Sunday which could preclude organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 have you taken a look at the surface winds? There's an arctic front that passes through the induces a ton of shear...and then a low develops to the south inducing northerly surface flow with WNW 850 winds. It's super windy on Sunday which could preclude organization. Yeah Buffalo NWS doesn't state anything of significance for the entire week! Looks like its going to be a tundra next week with very little snow. That is seriously the worst in that it freezes up the lake quickly with no opportunity for LES. =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Another day closer....confidence a bit higher for a Sun.-Tues.(at least) major LES event. The typical fly in the ointment at these leads is dry air....and the latest runs of the GFS and NAM, hint of a decent moisture plume over both Erie and Ontario. dont see any major LES for the next few days, the flow is all sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 have you taken a look at the surface winds? There's an arctic front that passes through the induces a ton of shear...and then a low develops to the south inducing northerly surface flow with WNW 850 winds. It's super windy on Sunday which could preclude organization. No, not really. the details of what you mention, IMO, (at 4+ day leads) are highly variable. My "increase" in confidence is more borne in seeing a decent amount of moisture through during the drawn out event. Many shortwaves will most likely be embedding in the mostly laminar flow, which certainly would "straighten" up the shear many times....but again, those details (shear and moisture) can still vary a decent amount at these lead times. Also, we have been LES starved for quite some time....so maybe my "enthusiasm" is a bit hypersensitive to that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 dont see any major LES for the next few days, the flow is all sheared. I'm talking early next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 BTW, Nick, I certainly am not trying to imply that a sheared environment won't exist during some portion of early next week (of course, most likely after the AF) but once the flow settles, I think the delta's and the progged left over moisture will fire the lakes up... Latest from BGM: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...2 PM THU UPDATE...SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY VERY COLD AIR WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVELTROF OVER THE NORTHEAST U S. DURING THAT TIME A DEEP NW FLOW ANDLAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE LIKELY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVESSOUTH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR THAT COMESIN SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 BTW, Nick, I certainly am not trying to imply that a sheared environment won't exist during some portion of early next week (of course, most likely after the AF) but once the flow settles, I think the delta's and the progged left over moisture will fire the lakes up... Latest from BGM: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 2 PM THU UPDATE... SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY VERY COLD AIR WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST U S. DURING THAT TIME A DEEP NW FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE LIKELY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR THAT COMES IN SUNDAY. Ew. Northwest Flow... Who the heck wants that? Pathetic snowfall rates FTL! A nice juicy southwest flow is preferred with 3-4 inches per hour. OH Yea! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ew. Northwest Flow... Who the heck wants that? Pathetic snowfall rates FTL! A nice juicy southwest flow is preferred with 3-4 inches per hour. OH Yea! =) Yeah, I need to be more sympathetic to the WNY posters who (I think all) like some southerly component to the wind, where as for us L. Ontario posters, most want 270-320... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah, I need to be more sympathetic to the WNY posters who (I think all) like some southerly component to the wind, where as for us L. Ontario posters, most want 270-320... I believe the Tug needs a westerly flow and Watertown needs a SW flow. WSW/SW flow works the best here. Sometimes a west flow even hits us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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