Buffalo Bumble Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 More grass than snow cover now in my area - looks like all but the big snow piles will be gone after tomorrow. It's been interesting watching the models go back and forth over the last several days on the upcoming transition to colder weather. 12 GFS is certainly interesting with that PV sitting near James Bay by next Wednesday. I imagine there's some pretty solid analogs for major LE snow events with a PV in that position...Spawn some juicy shortwaves off that cold gyre and get our eastern GL's to finally wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Are you guys freaking kidding me. Its been almost two years since we had a good winter. So far this year, we had 2 weeks of wintery weather and you guys are already looking for, and enjoying a reprieve?! Give me a break, this warm spell/january thaw is horrible. What a bunch of pansies Getting soft in here for sure. Winter returns here after the 15th with an arctic blast, LES, and then a possible synoptic system around the 22nd, which has the potential to pull down some of the coldest air we have seen around here for quite some time. In the meantime, hang in there and lets get through this miserable weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 lol I see quite a few Clipper type systems showing up in recent models. Any chance those have a chance to bring a few bouts of LES with changing wind directions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Looks good for colder then normal temperatures and more importantly a greater chance for above normal precipitation in 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Temperatures: http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/197/cpc.gif/'> http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/651/cpc2.gif/'> Precipitation: http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/850/precip.gif/'>http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/201/precip2.gif/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looks good for colder then normal temperatures and more importantly a greater chance for above normal precipitation in 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Had some gorgeous weather in Austin, TX this past week and now I'm ready for some more snow. I think the MJO may lend some support towards colder than normal temperatures, even though it will be in the so called warmer phase 6. In this case, the persistent convection just east of the maritime continent may allow for Rossby wave dispersion to teleconnect with lower heights over the eastern US. The composites that show phase 6 as a warm phase do not have any lag built in them, implying that the warm signal is actually from one the preceding phases 4 or 5. Therefore, a strong signal in phase 6 as we have now may eventually result in a pattern one might see in the phase 8 composite as the convection initiates a Rossby wave train over the Pacific and North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Had some gorgeous weather in Austin, TX this past week and now I'm ready for some more snow. I think the MJO may lend some support towards colder than normal temperatures, even though it will be in the so called warmer phase 6. In this case, the persistent convection just east of the maritime continent may allow for Rossby wave dispersion to teleconnect with lower heights over the eastern US. The composites that show phase 6 as a warm phase do not have any lag built in them, implying that the warm signal is actually from one the preceding phases 4 or 5. Therefore, a strong signal in phase 6 as we have now may eventually result in a pattern one might see in the phase 8 composite as the convection initiates a Rossby wave train over the Pacific and North America. WOOOO MAN...Take it easy on the lingo bro! You just went WAYY over my head. I guess I have quite a bit of research to do on the MJO. haha! Thanks as always for the updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Here is an excellent blog describing the potential upcoming arctic outbreak . http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=4331&topicid=16434&Itemid=179 The long range on the GFS 00Z run looks absolutely fantastic, granted it is hr 276, but hopefully it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I came over here to see how you guys in WNY were coping with this heat. Still socked and 35 over here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I came over here to see how you guys in WNY were coping with this heat. Still socked and 35 over here.... 66 degrees!! Loving every minute of it, sorry to hear your stuck in the cold bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 66 degrees!! Loving every minute of it, sorry to hear your stuck in the cold bro! Huge torch ongoing in WNY. Yesterday was a +27 deg departure at BUF. Very strange late last night going outside with a mostly clear sky, light breeze, and temps in the low 50's. Just nuts for mid January. Looking at a similar, if not greater, departure today with temp already hitting 66 deg. +7 deg for the month through yesterday and temps only look to drop back to about average for the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Took a great hour long motorcycle ride through the Boston Hills. Not much snow left even at near 1700ft on Cole road, but it was veryyyyy windy and what a view! The East Branch of Cazenovia Creek was really flowing from Colden to West Falls. What a great ride in the middle of January! This was perfect riding weather although I can wait till March or April to ride again so bring back a return to winter for now please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Took a great hour long motorcycle ride through the Boston Hills. Not much snow left even at near 1700ft on Cole road, but it was veryyyyy windy and what a view! The East Branch of Cazenovia Creek was really flowing from Colden to West Falls. What a great ride in the middle of January! This was perfect riding weather although I can wait till March or April to ride again so bring back a return to winter for now please. Sickening! I'm with you though about getting out and enjoying it. Hard not to soak up 60 deg and sun any time of year, even mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 60F at KSYR right now...very close to being 30F above normal for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestWind Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Took a great hour long motorcycle ride through the Boston Hills. Not much snow left even at near 1700ft on Cole road, but it was veryyyyy windy and what a view! The East Branch of Cazenovia Creek was really flowing from Colden to West Falls. What a great ride in the middle of January! This was perfect riding weather although I can wait till March or April to ride again so bring back a return to winter for now please. I thought I heard a motorcycle outside this afternoon, since I had my windows open! I'm aware of an "old wives tale" regarding the Buffalo area. It says "If you hear a motorcycle in December, then expect a big snow later in the month". It probably has some validity, since if it is warm enough to ride in December it implies unseasonably warm weather, which is likely keeping the lake significantly warmer than normal. Plus, chances are greatest that you hear it early in the month (since average temperature drops throughout the month), meaning that there is probably a good 3 weeks for a "big snow" to occur. Historically, chances are probably better than 50-50 of a "big snow" in the last 3 weeks of December. However, I've never heard any weather-related sayings about hearing motorcycles in other months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Seen a couple bikes out yesterday cruising around Central Ny. Why the hell not i guess haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I thought I heard a motorcycle outside this afternoon, since I had my windows open! I'm aware of an "old wives tale" regarding the Buffalo area. It says "If you hear a motorcycle in December, then expect a big snow later in the month". It probably has some validity, since if it is warm enough to ride in December it implies unseasonably warm weather, which is likely keeping the lake significantly warmer than normal. Plus, chances are greatest that you hear it early in the month (since average temperature drops throughout the month), meaning that there is probably a good 3 weeks for a "big snow" to occur. Historically, chances are probably better than 50-50 of a "big snow" in the last 3 weeks of December. However, I've never heard any weather-related sayings about hearing motorcycles in other months. love your profile pic. Pretty sweet. I think I may have seen you this morning coming out of a building but Im not sure what you look like but judging from that pic u posted you came out of the building I think you live in. I was walking to the parking lot carrying a blue Motorcycle helmet , not sure if it was you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I have an incredible micro climate at my house. I ate lunch in Baldwinsville. When I left there around 3 my car thermometer read 60. About 2 miles from my house it was still 57. In the last 2 miles the temperature dropped to 45. I have seen similar temperature drops in the past. The only explanation is that I'm about 1/4 mile from Oneida Lake and I must experience a mini marine layer off the lake. It's currently 43 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'll throw down some nice odds that Boonville will have bare ground by Monday. Not a chance that snowpack holds through this upcoming torch. ::Edit:: Boonville might not have bareground, but to pretend like the sled season isnt going to take a big hit from this warmup is a bit ignorant. 72 straight hours above freezing....that will not bode well. Rain tonight will be the key. Friday's didn't make it as far as Lowville and was light here. Still 12"+ on the flats at 1100' elevation, but soft. Freeze it up again (hopefully Monday night), and it'll stay. BTW, I didn't say sledding wouldn't "take a big hit", but with 30" at Redfield and 18-24" here it's too soon to call game over before a thaw even hits. That, along with speculating on conditions you're not 'in' prolly also qualify as "a bit ignorant";) I'll edit this later after I realize I'm wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Rain tonight will be the key. Friday's didn't make it as far as Lowville and was light here. Still 12"+ on the flats at 1100' elevation, but soft. Freeze it up again (hopefully Monday night), and it'll stay. BTW, I didn't say sledding wouldn't "take a big hit", but with 30" at Redfield and 18-24" here it's too soon to call game over before a thaw even hits. That, along with speculating on conditions you're not 'in' prolly also qualify as "a bit ignorant";) I'll edit this later after I realize I'm wrong..... So how'd things end up? And for the record, I've lived in WNY for 32 years...and am quite familiar with this entire area...including boonville. I don't think forecasting that the snow 2 and half hours down the road from me was going to melt was that outlandish or ignrorant. I didnt really crack the case with this one ....the models and overall pattern were pretty conducive for extreme melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I have to imagine someone will cash in big time in the lakes over the next 2 to 3 weeks. However, I think the next week will remain fairly quite on the les front. Cold air gives us a glancing blow...and the general tightness of the PV with it located over Hudson Bay precluds the lakes from getting into the favorable mid-level cold air. As a quick and general rule, you want to be north of the streamwise 500mb vorticity. Everything else follows, shear is decreased, mid-level temps are colder, and column humidity is higher. This is more likely to occur in the 2nd week of the forecast period. It remains too early to say where the best bands will set-up, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 More of a minor to moderate Rochester event has potential around day 4 after the arctic front passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I have to imagine someone will cash in big time in the lakes over the next 2 to 3 weeks. However, I think the next week will remain fairly quite on the les front. Cold air gives us a glancing blow...and the general tightness of the PV with it located over Hudson Bay precluds the lakes from getting into the favorable mid-level cold air. As a quick and general rule, you want to be north of the streamwise 500mb vorticity. Everything else follows, shear is decreased, mid-level temps are colder, and column humidity is higher. This is more likely to occur in the 2nd week of the forecast period. It remains too early to say where the best bands will set-up, obviously. Definitely going to need it before the lake freezes with this long duration arctic intrusion. KBuf I believe is around 30 inches below normal in terms of snowfall for the year, I doubt they catch up to a normal this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I believe it's more like 24" or 25" below normal right...but either way. We have until mid-february for an open lake imo, at least. 3 degrees above normal right now with no big arctic cold until next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Man, the Euro extended looks quite impressive. There's a lot of cold air on our side of the hemisphere for a change. These next couple of weeks are going to be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I believe it's more like 24" or 25" below normal right...but either way. We have until mid-february for an open lake imo, at least. 3 degrees above normal right now with no big arctic cold until next weekend. Obviously I do not fully understand the upper atmospheric conditions necessary in the long range outlooks to produced a quality lake effect snow pattern. But does not this weekends into next weeks outlook look extremely promising? I mean -20 850s with one shortwave/clipper after another plowing through the great lakes? Is it going to be to cold for lake effect? Could we possibly expect a good "spraying" of lake effect with decent moisture from the plethora of clippers coming through changing the wind directions in conjunction with abnormally high Delta Ts with the departure from normal lakes being so high? 500 MB Ensemble Mean Mighty cold 850s coming in from Clipper Freezing!!! Everyone else is dryer then normal, but great lakes maintain equal chances of normal precipitation. Is this due to lake effect possibilities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Obviously I do not fully understand the upper atmospheric conditions necessary in the long range outlooks to produced a quality lake effect snow pattern. But does not this weekends into next weeks outlook look extremely promising? I mean -20 850s with one shortwave/clipper after another plowing through the great lakes? Is it going to be to cold for lake effect? Could we possibly expect a good "spraying" of lake effect with decent moisture from the plethora of clippers coming through changing the wind directions in conjunction with abnormally high Delta Ts with the departure from normal lakes being so high? Check out the number two match from the CPC's 6-10 analog product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Check out the number two match from the CPC's 6-10 analog product. 610analog.off.gif Is that a Georgian Bay Low? Me Likey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Check out the number two match from the CPC's 6-10 analog product. 610analog.off.gif check out number 10 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 that's the anomaly...not the actual mid-level low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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