Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December

[BuffaloWeather]

Yes.....West of Jamestown in the very SW corner of the state. Elevation is about 1600 feet.

That location receives more snow then anywhere in New York State outside the Tug Hill snow belts. They top 200 inches nearly every year, and are the prime location to be under a W/NW flow which looks to be the predominant flow for days. You might get hammered.

[schinz]

That location receives more snow then anywhere in New York State outside the Tug Hill snow belts. They top 200 inches nearly every year, and are the prime location to be under a W/NW flow which looks to be the predominant flow for days. You might get hammered.

Awesome!!! Thanks....might be a great ski trip!!

[BuffaloWeather]

Latest GFS goes to town on Buffalo in terms of snowfall.

Can't forget the clown map.

[schinz]

Latest GFS goes to town on Buffalo in terms of snowfall.

Can't forget the clown map.

Good Morning...can you tell me what site, or provide a link, you are using to generate the above 2 graphics? Thanks.

[heavy_wx]

Latest GFS goes to town on Buffalo in terms of snowfall.

That is a very impressive QPF for a lake effect event from a low resolution model like the GFS.

This event looks to feature a very deep moist layer extending up to around 600 mb at times. While the GFS and Euro show a low cap height around 800 mb, the lifting of unstable parcels should increase the cap height above what the models suggest. The strong, moist, cylconic flow may make this event more lake enhanced vs pure lake effect, with heavier snow embedded within a widespread area of lighter snow.

Looking at the CIPS analog page, there are a few interesting matches. The top match for the 96 hr period of the GFS is 4 December 2007. This event produced snow totals greater than 12" for large parts of the SYR and ROC areas. Another fairly good analog was 7 December 2010. This was another impressive northwest flow event with 40-60 inches reported in the SYR area. However, that was over the course of 4 days while our current event will be mainly over a 24 hr period.

We'll have to see the exact track of the surface and 850 mb lows to know which areas will get the highest totals, but there seems to be a pretty good potential for a significant northwest flow event in CNY and WNY.

[BuffaloWeather]

That is a very impressive QPF for a lake effect event from a low resolution model like the GFS.

This event looks to feature a very deep moist layer extending up to around 600 mb at times. While the GFS and Euro show a low cap height around 800 mb, the lifting of unstable parcels should increase the cap height above what the models suggest. The strong, moist, cylconic flow may make this event more lake enhanced vs pure lake effect, with heavier snow embedded within a widespread area of lighter snow.

Looking at the CIPS analog page, there are a few interesting matches. The top match for the 96 hr period of the GFS is 4 December 2007. This event produced snow totals greater than 12" for large parts of the SYR and ROC areas. Another fairly good analog was 7 December 2010. This was another impressive northwest flow event with 40-60 inches reported in the SYR area. However, that was over the course of 4 days while our current event will be mainly over a 24 hr period.

We'll have to see the exact track of the surface and 850 mb lows to know which areas will get the highest totals, but there seems to be a pretty good potential for a significant northwest flow event in CNY and WNY.

I believe this qpf total is more then just lake effect in that it includes the Metro Buffalo area which receives NOTHING on a NW flow. Seems possible a deform band forms which in addition to the lakes helps generates so much snow?

[heavy_wx]

I believe this qpf total is more then just lake effect in that it includes the Metro Buffalo area which receives NOTHING on a NW flow. Seems possible a deform band forms which in addition to the lakes helps generates so much snow?

Well the 06z GFS suggests some increasing CVA with height as some of the 500 mb vorticity from the closed low is advected over WNY. I think it also has to do with the extremely moist boundary layer that will give areas outside of traditional lake effect regions precip as well as some enhancement from western Lake Ontario.

[BuffaloWeather]

Well the 06z GFS suggests some increasing CVA with height as some of the 500 mb vorticity from the closed low is advected over WNY. I think it also has to do with the extremely moist boundary layer that will give areas outside of traditional lake effect regions precip as well as some enhancement from western Lake Ontario.

Awesome! Similar to what is going on currently, except it being in the snow format?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BUF&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[lakeeffectkid383]

Latest GFS goes to town on Buffalo in terms of snowfall.

Can't forget the clown map.

only in out dreams

[phoenixny]

I haven't posted in a bit but now I am pissed. This afternoon's models have trended the wrong way for CNY in my opinion. Temps at 850 are now progged between -4 and -6 degrees and winds are northerly. Only thing to hope for now is a secondary bringing a surge of moisture early Friday morning and a quick changeover. What looked to be a solid warning event is in question now. This winter will do anything to screw us.

[CNYWeather]

And I was just about to get excited about this weekends chances of snow.

I'm getting tired of getting asked "WHEN WILL IT SNOW" lol

[wolfie09]

Euro text kuca

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.0 -1.4 1006 92 99 0.14 549 545

FRI 12Z 21-DEC 1.5 -0.7 996 98 100 0.25 541 544

FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.7 -2.1 988 98 97 0.66 529 539

SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.1 -4.8 987 94 97 0.16 521 532

SAT 06Z 22-DEC -0.3 -5.4 985 96 100 0.11 518 530

SAT 12Z 22-DEC -1.2 -6.8 989 94 97 0.15 518 527

SAT 18Z 22-DEC -2.5 -9.3 994 84 98 0.17 520 525

SUN 00Z 23-DEC -5.5 -12.4 1002 86 95 0.12 524 523

SUN 06Z 23-DEC -6.6 -13.4 1005 85 75 0.07 523 519

Ksyr

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.5 0.5 1002 92 100 0.16 548 546

FRI 12Z 21-DEC 1.9 -0.5 996 99 100 0.35 538 541

FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.8 -4.2 989 98 99 0.54 527 535

SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.7 -4.9 988 96 96 0.09 521 531

SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.3 -5.6 987 97 100 0.14 518 529

SAT 12Z 22-DEC -1.1 -7.8 991 91 98 0.23 520 527

SAT 18Z 22-DEC -2.5 -10.6 997 83 98 0.24 522 524

SUN 00Z 23-DEC -4.3 -12.6 1004 83 98 0.18 526 523

SUN 06Z 23-DEC -4.2 -12.3 1007 82 84 0.05 525 520

SUN 12Z 23-DEC -5.6 -12.9 1009 83 95 0.05 523 516

KBUF

FRI 00Z 21-DEC 2.6 4.7 1002 90 98 0.17 551 549

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 4.6 3.1 995 82 88 0.13 538 543

FRI 12Z 21-DEC 2.4 -6.2 994 79 52 0.03 529 534

FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.3 -5.3 991 78 98 0.04 524 531

SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.9 -4.8 992 96 98 0.10 524 530

SAT 06Z 22-DEC -1.2 -8.9 996 82 98 0.19 524 527

SAT 12Z 22-DEC -3.4 -11.5 1001 80 97 0.20 526 525

SAT 18Z 22-DEC -3.2 -11.8 1005 76 98 0.19 530 526

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro text kuca

Ksyr

KBUF

Thanks as always for those numbers, always appreciated. Looks to be a pretty decent event for everyone around the lakes! Hazards from NWS.

[wolfie09]

Kalb

WILL INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAPIDLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AS

STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND

SECONDARY WAVE. A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST

TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL AID IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN FAVORED AREAS AS WELL

AS ACT AS A MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MIXED PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN

WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH A SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED

ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...ENOUGH COLD LOW

LEVEL AIR MAY GET LOCKED IN PLACE FOR SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME

FREEZING RAIN OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND

ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FORECAST AMOUNTS OF ANY

FROZEN PRECIP TYPE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT THE

POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND SOME ICING

DUE TO FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY FOR THE AREAS JUST PREVIOUSLY

MENTIONED. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE MIXING OF

STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY OCCUR...BUT WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME

FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN

TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES MAY HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.

PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW

LEVEL JET WILL START TO DECREASE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST

BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS FURTHER

OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NY/PA...THE TWO SURFACE WAVES ARE

FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO ONE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER OUR REGION...WITH

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING OCCLUDED WITH COLDER AIR FILLING IN

AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR

AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON

WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IN

VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE

UPPER LOW.

[BuffaloWeather]

BUF NWS AFD:

TO START THE DAY FRIDAY A TROWAL WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN

LAKE ONTARIO REGION FOCUSING MAINLY RAIN...WHICH COULD BE MODERATE

AT TIMES AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEGINS TO BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. AS

THE TRIPLE POINT LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO OUR WEST...THE PRIMARY

LOW THAT WILL REMAIN NEAR WNY WILL BEGIN TO FILL. THIS

SECONDARY...DEEPENING LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL MUCH COLDER AIR

SOUTHWARD TRANSITIONING RAIN AND SNOW TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY EVENING

ACROSS THE CWA. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING UNDER

THE NOW CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD

ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING THE TRANSITION AND STILL A FEW DAYS OUT FOR

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAND THE GREATEST

CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA FALL FROM AROUND -4C DOWN TO

AROUND -8 TO -10C TO THE WEST AND A LITTLE WARMER TO THE EAST. WHILE

SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS...AND

THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. WITH WINDS

TAKING ON MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL FOCUS GREATEST POPS

ACROSS FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THEN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MODERATE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF AROUND 5K FEET AND A

STILL STRONG 850 HPA WIND OF 40 KNOTS OVER THE SHORTER FETCH OF THE

LAKES WILL LIMIT LAKE BANDS. HOWEVER WITH A SATURATED LOW LEVEL AND

UPWARD OMEGA MOTION LIFTING MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONES

MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO

SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SFC TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND

30 ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT

PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES

REGION. WITH THE CAA NOW WINDS WILL MORE EASILY TRANSPORT DOWNWARD

AND WE WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 40 KNOT JET

ALOFT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. THE

WINDS AND THE SNOW WILL BRING LOWERING VISIBILITIES...NOT IDEAL FOR

THOSE STARTING THEIR CHRISTMAS TRAVELS EARLY.

SATURDAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE GREAT

LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE

FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL

FOCUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WHILE ACROSS

THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL

REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND LARGELY BELOW FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE

20S TO AROUND 30.

[heavy_wx]

I haven't posted in a bit but now I am pissed. This afternoon's models have trended the wrong way for CNY in my opinion. Temps at 850 are now progged between -4 and -6 degrees and winds are northerly. Only thing to hope for now is a secondary bringing a surge of moisture early Friday morning and a quick changeover. What looked to be a solid warning event is in question now. This winter will do anything to screw us.

The 12z Euro has temperatures at 850 mb of around -8C by 12z Saturday, dropping to -12C by 12z Sunday with northwest flow. The GFS is a bit warmer with more nnw flow due to the further south track of the 850 mb low. The Euro's track of the low a bit further north would obviously be more favorable for most areas, outside of maybe south of the Finger Lakes.

It is still 4-5 days out so it is a little early to get too caught up in the 850 mb low placement by any particular model.

[wolfie09]

KBGM

HPC WWD GRAPHICS INDICATING WIDESPREAD 2-6 INCHES CWA-WIDE ALONG

WITH 6-8 INCHES OVR EXTRM NRN ONEIDA CNTY, SIMILAR TO CURRENT SNOW

GRIDS. MAY SEE A PROLONGED PD OF SNOW OVR THE WEEKEND AND WL

HIGHLIGHT IN HWO THIS AFTN. ANY ONE TIME PD MAY SEE ADVISORY/WRNG

EVENTS BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO CALL RIGHT NOW.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[BuffaloWeather]

The 12z Euro has temperatures at 850 mb of around -8C by 12z Saturday, dropping to -12C by 12z Sunday with northwest flow. The GFS is a bit warmer with more nnw flow due to the further south track of the 850 mb low. The Euro's track of the low a bit further north would obviously be more favorable for most areas, outside of maybe south of the Finger Lakes.

It is still 4-5 days out so it is a little early to get too caught up in the 850 mb low placement by any particular model.

We begin to feel the effects from this storm in 48 hours.

[wolfie09]

Jma has been very consistent..

Yesterday's 12z

http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=180268

Today's 12z

http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=180522

[phoenixny]

The 12z Euro has temperatures at 850 mb of around -8C by 12z Saturday, dropping to -12C by 12z Sunday with northwest flow. The GFS is a bit warmer with more nnw flow due to the further south track of the 850 mb low. The Euro's track of the low a bit further north would obviously be more favorable for most areas, outside of maybe south of the Finger Lakes.

It is still 4-5 days out so it is a little early to get too caught up in the 850 mb low placement by any particular model.

I here ya. I thought it looked better yesterday with temps and wind direction. Still early and it is going to snow. I am seeing -4 to -6C on the Euro at 12Z Sat. on Huffman's model page. Am I reading that correctly?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Where is Organizing Low? It would be interesting to hear his take on this storm!

[scottmartin49]

So with warm, saturated ground, a storm track predominantly north of NYS heading into Quebec, and CPC snow probabilities hovering around 50% for a 4" episode, you're excited? By a chance at wraparound?

Please, show some self-respect.....

I'll be glad to see it, but check the Jet. If you see a real event in it your more optimistic than me. Might be able to 'make' snow in the aftermath at least....

Real winter starts on Jan. 20- the 'new norm'.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Im not super excited for this event where I am. I do feel my elevation of almost 900 feet and being 6.5 miles as the crow flies from lake Erie will aid in keeping me as all snow during the day Friday but all the good lake enhancement/effect should be well to my NE and SW. I don't expect more than 4" for the entire event (Friday through Sunday). I feel confident Sherman/Mayville/ Perrysburg areas in the SW portion of WNY will see 12"+ and maybe a secondary jackpot of 8" or so in Niagara or Orleans county but for us in between I think this event will be a bit of a disappointment. The only nice thing is temps will be cold and it will be windy so it will finally feel wintry around here. It will also be nice to see the ski resorts get some much needed powder. Holiday valley should be doing quite well by Christmas between the natural snow and the colder temps to make snow.

[swva]

Anyone see the 0z GFS? I know its the GFS and its 200 hours away but would be a HUGE storm for the area. Big synoptic snows followed by LES. I will be vacationing in the area from Dec. 26 - Jan. 5 so keeping my fingers crossed. Not dismissing the Friday/Saturday event but Dec. 27-28 looks even more interesting. At least it is turning wintry and great for the snowmobilers and ski resorts.

[harrisale]

Anyone see the 0z GFS? I know its the GFS and its 200 hours away but would be a HUGE storm for the area. Big synoptic snows followed by LES. I will be vacationing in the area from Dec. 26 - Jan. 5 so keeping my fingers crossed. Not dismissing the Friday/Saturday event but Dec. 27-28 looks even more interesting. At least it is turning wintry and great for the snowmobilers and ski resorts.

Certainly looks better for this subforum. And the system will be blasting right into cold air left by the storm passing by this weekend.

[BuffaloWeather]

Clown maps are the best.

[lakeeffectkid383]

ON FRIDAY…THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES

ALLOWING FOR TRANSFER OF ENERGY FROM THE FILLING LOW WEST OFF THE

AREA TO A NEW LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. COLDER AIR FILLING IN

BEHIND THE SYSTEM…ALONG WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BLOSSOM

SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS

PROCESS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO

THE REGION. OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASING ENOUGH BY FRIDAY NIGHT

TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE

LAKES…PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OFF LAKE ERIE.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS STAGE TOUGH TO PINPOINT…BUT CURRENT

INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST SOLID ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NEARLY THE

ENTIRE AREA…WITH WARNING CRITERIA LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY FOR

HEADLINES AT THIS POINT…THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN

THE HWO PRODUCT.

Sounds like 3-7 inches for most of us in WNY with 12"+ likley on the Chautaqua Ridge and in Catt County.

[Buffalo Bumble]

Nice to have a legit threat to track inside of 72 hours. Hard not to like what all the models are showing for WNY Friday afternoon through Saturday. Looking forward to at the very least some decent snows down in the hills to jump start the ski season. Seems like similar storm tracks in the past have produced pretty well for even the lower elevations of WNY with combination of backlash precip and lake enhancement off Ontario.

[BuffaloWeather]

Nice to have a legit threat to track inside of 72 hours. Hard not to like what all the models are showing for WNY Friday afternoon through Saturday. Looking forward to at the very least some decent snows down in the hills to jump start the ski season. Seems like similar storm tracks in the past have produced pretty well for even the lower elevations of WNY with combination of backlash precip and lake enhancement off Ontario.

HPC looks good for a 70% chance of 4 or more inches across all of WNY. Not to bad, holiday might get a foot+ out of this, cant wait to go down there possibly this Sunday!

[LakeEffectKing]

W/C NY hills get white late Thurs. night into Fri.

Fri. afternoon all of W. NY gets into some synoptic/L. enhanced snows...hilltops get additional help from orographic effects (and with the super moist column, there WILL be orographic effects).

S/and SE of Ontario in CNY, the best snows for all elevations will be Fri eve. through Sat. morn.

Most areas in all of upstate NY will see 1-3" through the weekend. Near the lakes and higher elevations away from the lakes (3-5"). Higher elevations near the lakes more like 5-9" with some lollipops nearing a foot (Ch. ridge, higher elevations in the FL's....maybe Southern Tug....esp. Sat. as winds back a bit....)

After a long stretch of non-winter like weather, this will be very nice...just in time for Christmas!