Flying MXZ Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Hopefully the snowpack in the Catskills stays safe in the upcoming thaw. Not much chance of that, unless you mean the north sides of the 3000' elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Point and click for my area doesn't get above freezing til Wednesday, and even then Wednesday and Thursday only reach the mid 30's. Maybe it gets worse after that but we have a solid snowpack here and it's not going to get torched by a few hours above freezing for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Point and click for my area doesn't get above freezing til Wednesday, and even then Wednesday and Thursday only reach the mid 30's. Maybe it gets worse after that but we have a solid snowpack here and it's not going to get torched by a few hours above freezing for several days. The lots few runs of most models/ensembles have been a bit more progressive with the cold and nearly cuts it off completely beyond next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Quite windy out there today! 1136 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BUFFALO 42.88N 78.90W 01/04/2013 M60 MPH LEZ041 NY COAST GUARD 1145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT 43.11N 78.94W 01/04/2013 M60 MPH NIAGARA NY ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Just got back from Redfield. Vacationing since Dec. 26th and saw 30" of new snow, below zero temps, and over 3 feet of snow pack. It was a great time. Saw over 3 inches of snow in one hour too which is always awesome! Hope the warm coming next week does not last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Been snowing here off and on all day. Snowing pretty good right now but not much accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Snowing moderately right now with huge flakes. Starting to stick here too. 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Dumping snow right now and already an inch on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 As far as volume goes, this as as hard as it's snowed all winter. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Dumping snow right now and already an inch on the ground. Wow did it ever come down fast for 2,3 hours there...I'd say about 2-3 inches fell during that time period. It was extremely wet and did not accumulate as well as fluffy snow would of. It was extremely moisture laddened. The roads were a mess with slush everywhere, definitely a surprise little "event" this evening for sure! Ready for the torch and hopefully we can get some real arctic air in this area to get those lake guns going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Wow did it ever come down fast for 2,3 hours there...I'd say about 2-3 inches fell during that time period. It was extremely wet and did not accumulate as well as fluffy snow would of. It was extremely moisture laddened. The roads were a mess with slush everywhere, definitely a surprise little "event" this evening for sure! Ready for the torch and hopefully we can get some real arctic air in this area to get those lake guns going.nice little event for sure, estimating here Id say an inch and a half or so but its super wet and compacted snow. If this was fluff we woulda got 5 or 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Wow a spotter in Boston picked up 5" http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It snowed all day yesterday, and I ended up with just over 4". Temp bottomed out at -4F this am. (I just checked the thermometer and it dropped to -6F) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 6.5" of snowpack this morning. Thanks for the memories! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Just a stellar January day here. Full sunshine for the last couple hours and the temperature is frozen at 25 degrees. I just did my two mile snow shoe out back. I think we can stave off any bad melting through Friday here with the weak sun angle, cold nights and a modest cold shot Wed into Thur. After that it looks kinda ugly, but hopefully we get the snow pack replenished soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 About 11 inches left here where it's been totally undisturbed, but that doesn't mean much in the fields where blowing means you go from areas blown down to a couple inches up to 30 inch drifts. 6.5" of snowpack this morning. Thanks for the memories! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Got an average of about 7-8" of snowpack here but that should be completly depleted by this weekend. Obviously some of the snow piles will make it through but most of the snowpack and dirty snow will melt and be washed away by this weekends rain, and I cant say Im dissappointed about that. Hopefully we can start a fresh snowpack after next weekend. Kind of tired looking at brown snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I can honestly say this sun feels absolutely wonderful! 38 Degrees and sun, 50-55 and sun in a few days is going to be wonderful. The winters around these parts are so long(usually) that a nice thaw and sun like this is good for the soul! (Vitamin D as well) This is about the time people get really down due to seasonal affective disorder, so this will certainly help them out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I can honestly say this sun feels absolutely wonderful! 38 Degrees and sun, 50-55 and sun in a few days is going to be wonderful. The winters around these parts are so long(usually) that a nice thaw and sun like this is good for the soul! (Vitamin D as well) This is about the time people get really down due to seasonal affective disorder, so this will certainly help them out!it feels great out there today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The warm weather sucks in my opinion grrrr. Snowmobile season was getting good now gonna have to start all over again. Booooo to the January thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I say we hit 60 or better on Sat. and never drop below 50 at night. Sucks bigtime. I ride sleds as well and now we go back to square one. Major melting even on the Tug. Models all over the place after 10 days(which is to be expected). Hope the cold pattern can have some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I say we hit 60 or better on Sat. and never drop below 50 at night. Sucks bigtime. I ride sleds as well and now we go back to square one. Major melting even on the Tug. Models all over the place after 10 days(which is to be expected). Hope the cold pattern can have some staying power. I dont think we are going to back to square one, at least for the central dacks from Spec to IL and MRP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 some kind words from HM to liven up the forum. (He's probably the best medium/long range forecaster on the board.) The MJO behavior and the stratosphere remind of 2007 the most with 2006, 2005 close behind. A possible relaxation of the cold with a looping MJO is not a big deal in the long run and still means we continue to kick ass in Feb, esp. in your area. Your below normal LES days look to be coming to an end. BTW I have a possible theory on why the 00z and 12z runs like to flip back and forth at times of medium range pattern changes, but I must admit that it is a bit weak. I think it has to do with convection on the daytime side of the globe. Perhaps the stratospheric signals are more amplified on the 12z runs when the eastern hemispheric's convection is a bit weaker and then on the 00z runs that gets somewhat dampened as the models realize the latent heat from stronger diurnal convection in the EH. Meh something to think about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Fully automated modeling and forecasts sure are fun eh? A couple of days ago my NWS conditions were reported as 'unknown' until the next update triggered... Sledders needn't worry- a solid 18-24" base here in Boonville village, and it's a pack with a lot of room to hold any rain that's coming. I suspect it'll be the 'thick' kind of rain anyway and not enough to get the gullies flowing. Skiings great, and Saturday afternoon looks beautiful- old style March weather! Real winter begins with this next cold spell and should run until late February. The Wooly Bear forecast is kicking butt so far... Happy 2013 all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 some kind words from HM to liven up the forum. (He's probably the best medium/long range forecaster on the board.) The MJO behavior and the stratosphere remind of 2007 the most with 2006, 2005 close behind. A possible relaxation of the cold with a looping MJO is not a big deal in the long run and still means we continue to kick ass in Feb, esp. in your area. Your below normal LES days look to be coming to an end. BTW I have a possible theory on why the 00z and 12z runs like to flip back and forth at times of medium range pattern changes, but I must admit that it is a bit weak. I think it has to do with convection on the daytime side of the globe. Perhaps the stratospheric signals are more amplified on the 12z runs when the eastern hemispheric's convection is a bit weaker and then on the 00z runs that gets somewhat dampened as the models realize the latent heat from stronger diurnal convection in the EH. Meh something to think about... Hope this is right! We have had virtually no LES at all this season outside of that one 6 inches for West Seneca. The lake is wide open and warm after this thaw, if we can get a decent set-up we could really get hammered! Thanks again for your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Hope this is right! We have had virtually no LES at all this season outside of that one 6 inches for West Seneca. The lake is wide open and warm after this thaw, if we can get a decent set-up we could really get hammered! Thanks again for your input.Prolonged (24hr +) SW flow event looking to take shape midweek next week and plenty cold too (-10 to -12C) but the question his how much moisture will be available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I can honestly say this sun feels absolutely wonderful! 38 Degrees and sun, 50-55 and sun in a few days is going to be wonderful. The winters around these parts are so long(usually) that a nice thaw and sun like this is good for the soul! (Vitamin D as well) This is about the time people get really down due to seasonal affective disorder, so this will certainly help them out! it feels great out there today! Are you guys freaking kidding me. Its been almost two years since we had a good winter. So far this year, we had 2 weeks of wintery weather and you guys are already looking for, and enjoying a reprieve?! Give me a break, this warm spell/january thaw is horrible. What a bunch of pansies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Fully automated modeling and forecasts sure are fun eh? A couple of days ago my NWS conditions were reported as 'unknown' until the next update triggered... Sledders needn't worry- a solid 18-24" base here in Boonville village, and it's a pack with a lot of room to hold any rain that's coming. I suspect it'll be the 'thick' kind of rain anyway and not enough to get the gullies flowing. Skiings great, and Saturday afternoon looks beautiful- old style March weather! Real winter begins with this next cold spell and should run until late February. The Wooly Bear forecast is kicking butt so far... Happy 2013 all! I'll throw down some nice odds that Boonville will have bare ground by Monday. Not a chance that snowpack holds through this upcoming torch. ::Edit:: Boonville might not have bareground, but to pretend like the sled season isnt going to take a big hit from this warmup is a bit ignorant. 72 straight hours above freezing....that will not bode well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Are you guys freaking kidding me. Its been almost two years since we had a good winter. So far this year, we had 2 weeks of wintery weather and you guys are already looking for, and enjoying a reprieve?! Give me a break, this warm spell/january thaw is horrible. What a bunch of pansies You cant change the weather so why not embrace it? Sure i would love for it to be 20 degrees and in a lake effect blizzard but thats just not how it is right now. These warmer temps feel great especally as someone who works outside. Im definitly not looking for warmer weather but I am enjoying this little break before we slip into a deep freeze later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Are you guys freaking kidding me. Its been almost two years since we had a good winter. So far this year, we had 2 weeks of wintery weather and you guys are already looking for, and enjoying a reprieve?! Give me a break, this warm spell/january thaw is horrible. What a bunch of pansies I absolutely hate the cold weather but love the snow. I hate the "feeling" of being cold. So color me the odd one on this forum I guess. I see people on the New England forum clamoring for the lowest possible temperatures and I think to myself why? Do you really like insane heating bills and feeling cold all the time? I don't want to put on 10 layers of clothes every time I walk outside. For me the perfect winter weather is snow everyday and 30 degrees, doesn't get much better then that! As lake effect kid said you can't change the weather so why get down about it. 55-60 and sunny in the middle of winter tomorrow! Going to be helping a friend move into his first house he just bought then take a nice long walk outside! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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