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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


Alpha5

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final call for

toronto 4-8 inches (10-20cm)

ottawa 5-10 inches (13-25cm)....highest amounts east and SE of city

montreal 10-16 inches (25-40cm)

cornwall/KMSS 8-14 inches and much of st lawrence valley (20-35cm)

N vermont 12-18 inches (30-45cm) with localized 20 in spots

big winners our friends in WNY along the S shores of the lake and in buffalo :)

Buffalo looks like it's getting destroyed!!

Unfortunately, I'm currently under a dry slot in east end Toronto. Hopefully it fills in soon.

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thinking all of Erie county lands up with 12"+. Think someone in Erie county may hit 18". Awesome storm finally.

I’ve been enjoying this one since the first flakes starting falling around 4 PM. First few hours were great with steady snow, maybe ¾”/hr. range. Like LE Kid has been posting, the real fun stuff started around 7 PM with huge dendrites pouring from the sky. Just measured an average 10” IMBY, expect I’ll end up topping 12” with this one before it’s over.

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Snow intensity should start to decrease over the next hour or two from the 1-2"/hr rates to more like 1/2" hr rates. Still think we should pick up another 2-4" on top of the foot we already have here by the time this thing is over for good tomorrow afternoon. Still snowing hard here (prob 1 to 1.5"/hr) but it should be decreasing soon. Radar does look like its filling in to our south but the rates dont look to be wuite as heavy.Im off to bed now. One last pic out my bedroom window as of 10 min ago.

post-1351-0-34553100-1356584764_thumb.jp

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Albany...

OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NJ SHORE...EXTENDING N TO NEAR NYC. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BAND ARE SOME CONVECTIVE FEATURES...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. THIS BAND IS POISED TO PIVOT N/NW OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...BRINGING HVY PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NEAR AND ESP W OF THE HUDSON RIVER. P-TYPE LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE RAIN/SLEET...BUT AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...IT MAY BECOME HEAVY SNOW. WE MAY NEED TO BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS CONSIDERABLY FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...DEPENDING ON HOW THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TRANSLATES.

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They already have us getting like 10-15 tital In think. Hard to believe we would exceed that range. I'm probably at 5.5" now..possibly 6". So we need these heavier bands just to get into the 10-15 range.

Albany...

OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NJ SHORE...EXTENDING N TO NEAR NYC. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BAND ARE SOME CONVECTIVE FEATURES...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. THIS BAND IS POISED TO PIVOT N/NW OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...BRINGING HVY PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NEAR AND ESP W OF THE HUDSON RIVER. P-TYPE LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE RAIN/SLEET...BUT AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER N AND W...TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION...IT MAY BECOME HEAVY SNOW. WE MAY NEED TO BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS CONSIDERABLY FOR AREAS N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...DEPENDING ON HOW THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TRANSLATES.

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Easily 1-2" / hr right now near SYR. This is from a convective band that rotated up from NJ area tonight. One idea that was wrong...no down sloping off the Catskills. It appears the CNY precip minima forecasted on GFS/NAM won't verify, or if it does, in a negligible way. Good job by NWS BGM in their AFDs, minimizing that idea. Haven't measured but guy up the road had almost 7" 3 hrs ago and we've had SN, SN+ since.

Edit: wonder if the GFS/NAM were actually just too robust with the dryslot, or at least it's northern extent. BGM has definitely suffered from it, good call by those that warned of it on that area.

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Glad you made it safely! Seems crazy to take off a plane in that... I see the PL are being reported about 25 miles SE of ALB in Columbia County. Hopefully we avoid it out here. Good snow now and 24.4F. Nice conveyor seems to have set up bringing it up from L.I. and NJ.

Departed from BUF at the height of the snowfall intensity. Arrived in BOS to heavy rain and temps in the mid 30s. At least I got to enjoy part of the storm...

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KALB

AS OF 3 AM EST...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS BEGINNING TO CONGEAL

ONCE AGAIN FROM ALBANY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. FURTHER SOUTH

AND EAST...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO

MOVE NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCUR OVER THE

NEXT 1-3 HOURS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST WITHIN THESE

BANDLETS...AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO WITHIN THE CONGEALING AREA OF

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

THROUGH SUNRISE...IT APPEARS THAT...OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...THE HEAVIEST

SNOW SHOULD IMPACT THE CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE

LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES

PER HOUR...WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED HIGHER RATES. EXPECT

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMTS THROUGH SUNRISE OF 3-6 INCHES IN LOWER

ELEVATIONS...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH

ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR HAS DRAINED SOUTHWARD BACK

ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND NW CT. WE EXPECT VARYING

TYPES OF PRECIP THROUGH SUNRISE IN THIS REGION...WITH SOME

FREEZING RAIN...OCCASIONALLY CHANGING TO BURSTS OF SNOW AND SLEET.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THROUGH SUNRISE OF 1-2 INCHES COULD OCCUR IN

THIS REGION...ALONG WITH A COATING TO UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH

OF ICE ACCRETION.

ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...PRECIP THUS FAR HAS BEEN

INTERMITTENT AND FAIRLY LIGHT. WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY OF PRECIP...MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET...TO INCREASE THROUGH

SUNRISE...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF 2-4 INCHES LIKELY IN MOST

AREAS. SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR BETWEEN

BANDS...LEADING TO A COATING TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION.

SUNRISE THROUGH NOON...WE EXPECT AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND

AREAS NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AREA NORTH

OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD...SOUTH OF

LONG ISLAND. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW...SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS

HEAVY AT TIMES...SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD

LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH NOONTIME OF 2-4

INCHES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND

NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND 3-6 INCHES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE

GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...WITH 4-8 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MOST ADDITIONAL

ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...WITH 2-5 INCHES ADDITIONAL

EXPECTED IN THE SE CATSKILLS BY NOON.

NOON THROUGH SUNSET...THE DEFORMATION AREA SHOULD CONTINUE

TRANSLATING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A

POSSIBILITY THAT HUDSON-MOHAWK CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS LOW LEVEL

CONVERGENCE THAT OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOWS FROM

THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING WEST/NORTHWEST WIND DOWN THE

MOHAWK VALLEY...AND A LINGERING N/NE FLOW DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER

VALLEY...MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE

IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...FOR TEMPS...HAVE GONE COOLER THAN BOTH THE MAV AND MET

MOS...WITH MAXES ONLY REACHING 30-35 IN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH 20S

ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BE WARMER INITIALLY ACROSS S/E

AREAS THIS MORNING...FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA INTO NW CT AND

THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY FALLING THEREAFTER.

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