phoenixny Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Snowing Heavily in Phoenix. Wondering if that dryslot south of Towanda PA gets into CNY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Snowing Heavily in Phoenix. Wondering if that dryslot south of Towanda PA gets into CNY? That's definitely got me worried. It was featured on the models but doubted by some. Hoping against it but it looks real to me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Beat first post! Trying to get the hang of it. Merry Christmas to all. Have been on here since Eastern. Hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Rochester Region: Tracking heavy snow right now and looking for it to continue till 09Z. Seeing average snowfall rates of around 1.4” per hour, with periods of 2” per hour rates from 03Z to 06Z. My Smartcast is showing potential for 15-17.1” possible for the next 24 hours for the Rochester and surrounding region. Rochester Output http://smartwxmodel.net/12.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It was actually a blizzard warning. So they went from Blizzard warning to WWA... However, they did get pummeled rather hard for a few hours this afternoon so maybe it was warranted for a time. Hope that's not a bad sign for WNY...flakes just starting to grow in size in ROC now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Buffalo about to get rocked. Check out Mike C. from the WC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Bright banding occuring currently across all of Erie County, strongest rates look to be hitting for the next few hours. 2 inches per hour looks likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Snowing Heavily in Phoenix. Wondering if that dryslot south of Towanda PA gets into CNY? That area most likely will fill as it moves north....it's a bit later when the secondary takes off that we would see a quasi-stationary pronounced "downsloping" slot on radar (probably east of CNY). We may taper a here and there but our big rate potentials come in a couple more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Gotta be snowing close to 2" an hour. Flakes are huge and the snow is sooo fluffy. This is definitely at least 13-15:1 snow. Id say closing in on 6" fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Beautiful snow growth here. 1" in first hour. Picked up pretty quick. Nice dendrites and good ratio's. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 London Ontario is about to get clocked like it's nobody's business!! http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WSO http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=WSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Beautiful snow growth here. 1" in first hour. Picked up pretty quick. Nice dendrites and good ratio's. Nice! Same here. Looks like a brief lull in precip before the next area of higher reflectivity reaches Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 That area most likely will fill as it moves north....it's a bit later when the secondary takes off that we would see a quasi-stationary pronounced "downsloping" slot on radar (probably east of CNY). We may taper a here and there but our big rate potentials come in a couple more hours. Thanks for the reply. You are the KING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Subtle Mesoscale banding. Buffalo is getting pounded. For Posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Sbutle Mesoscale banding. Buffalo is getting pounded. For Posterity. we sure are. Snowing quarter sized flakes with visibility near zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Finally got started up here in Ballston Lake with a quick coating on top of 0.5-0.75" on the ground already. Recently relocated here about a week ago from Rotterdam, so haven't had time to set up the weather station yet. First moderate (or heavy - depending on when the sleet moves in) storm in the new house! Snow started just after 7 PM here. Close to moderate intensity already and 21 degrees. Edit: Moderate to bordering heavy at times.... very fluffy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Almost 2" new here, but I did nortice the flakes are the grainier type now...not as fluffy. But it's certainly cold at 19.4 degrees. Beautiful snow growth here. 1" in first hour. Picked up pretty quick. Nice dendrites and good ratio's. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I noticed the temps are slowly rising from 21 when the event started to 24 now and the flakes are so much better sized now. I wonder if it was too cold for good snow growth earlier, not that it matters now because flakes are huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 New update:BGM:.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 8 PM UPDATE... RADAR/SAT LOOPS SHOW A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT HEADING NWD THROUGH ERN PA ATTM. THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL RUNS...AND ALSO THE 18Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOW THIS FEATURE...BUT HAVE NOT QUITE CAUGHT ON TO ITS QUICK NWD MOVEMENT. THUS...WE`VE SPED UP THE TRANSITION FROM STEADY HVY SNOW...TO LGTR SNOW...OR A LGT MIX...GENERALLY OCCURRING FROM 00-03Z...ALG AND JUST E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. ALSO...THE CHARACTER OF THE RADAR ECHOES...PLUS PLENTIFUL SPOTTER/PUBLIC REPORTS...SHOW A HODGE-PODGE OF SNOW...SLEET...FZRA BASICALLY ALG AND S OF ROUTE 6 IN NRN PA ATTM. THIS AREA OF MIXED PCPN WILL PROBABLY EXTEND TO ABT THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN SRN NY TWDS 03-04Z...BUT WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO MOVE ANY FARTHER TO THE N OR W. AT THIS JUNCTURE...WE DON`T SEE A LOT OF EVIDENCE THAT THE ERLY FLOW/TERRAIN INDUCED PCPN SHADOWING...CONSISTENTLY SHOWN BY MANY OF OUR HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS EVE...HAS DVLPD...OR WILL DVLP. WE`LL SEE HOW THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ACRS PA DVLPS LTR THIS EVE...IN THIS REGARD. BOTTOM LN...WE`RE NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHGS TO OUR SNOW TOTALS. INITIAL BURST OF VERY HVY SNOW IN OUR FAR SRN ZNS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS...HAVE BROUGHT SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 3-6" RANGE ATTM. GIVEN MIXED PCPN THESE AREAS CURRENTLY...TOTALS WILL LIKELY NOT GO A GREAT DEAL HIGHER. ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...VERY HVY SNOW THE LAST SVRL HRS...IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THROUGH ABT 06Z...ESPECIALLY S AND E OF A TOWANDA TO KBGM TO ONEONTA LN. SNOW TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 4-8" IN MANY LOCALES THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS SO FAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 2 1/4 inches here since about 7 PM and snowing heavily, temp 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Approaching 3" in Phoenix. Flake size increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Moderate in intensity, but sleet line moving north out of the Hudson Valley and Southern New England is making me a bit nervous. Was hoping in might hold off until precip tapers off in the morning, but NWS Albany has rain in their point and clicks around here up to around Corinth for a time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 LEK that dry slot does look ominous for us CNYers. Here in Morrisville, had heavy snow for a while now, 2-3 inches, maybe more, but at the moment there's a sleety feel to what's falling. i'm at 1500 feet at my current location (moved last spring from Fenner) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 3.2" in short order here in L'pool...25mph gusts made my 15 minute walk less than comfortable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 LEK that dry slot does look ominous for us CNYers. Here in Morrisville, had heavy snow for a while now, 2-3 inches, maybe more, but at the moment there's a sleety feel to what's falling. i'm at 1500 feet at my current location (moved last spring from Fenner) We'll see.....some (in the southern part of CNY may indeed be impacted for a bit with a more prolonged period of lighter snows...but I still think that fills and ends up heading more west and shrinking as it does so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nearpass Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Here's the deck right now. This includes about 6 inches of lake effect and from last night. I would say that here we've gotten about 6 inches so far, but there's a lot of blowing, so hard to say for sure. Still very dry and fine snow here, so I'm surprised it's adding up so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wow just measured and got an average of 7" with ranges from 5" to 14". A little more than I even thought. Still snowing but not as hard but radar shows were in a temporary lull inbetween bands. Should be picking back up within 15-20 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm surprised we aren't really seeing lake enhancement off of Ontario, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I don't think it gets any better then this in the WNY region for synoptic snows. LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO NEAR LONG ISLAND AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED...WHICH PLACES OUR REGION IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR SNOWFALL. A COMBINATION OF A 50 TO 70 KNOT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...AND DIFFULENT FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. IR/RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THIS NICELY...WITH THIS AXIS HAVING A TROWAL-LIKE APPEARANCE. AT 900 PM...THIS AXIS EXTENDS FROM BUF-ROC-SYR. BASED ON REPORTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS BAND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM/12Z RGEM/HRRR ARE ALL DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB IN CAPTURING THIS BAND. THIS AXIS HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BUT IT IS FORECAST TO STALL LATE THIS EVENING...THEN PIVOT TO A MORE SW-NE ORIENTATION AND THEN GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE NE. THIS WILL CAUSE THIS BAND TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES IN THIS AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Just took a walk in Delaware Park in what was definitely the heaviest snow so far. Pretty amazing storm. It actually almost felt more like LES. Very small flake size here as it has been since the start. It's just "pouring" snow. Didn't measure, but probably already approaching 8". Keep it coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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