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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


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Rochester Region: Tracking heavy snow right now and looking for it to continue till 09Z. Seeing average snowfall rates of around 1.4” per hour, with periods of 2” per hour rates from 03Z to 06Z. My Smartcast is showing potential for 15-17.1” possible for the next 24 hours for the Rochester and surrounding region.

Rochester Output http://smartwxmodel.net/12.pdf

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It was actually a blizzard warning. So they went from Blizzard warning to WWA... However, they did get pummeled rather hard for a few hours this afternoon so maybe it was warranted for a time.

Hope that's not a bad sign for WNY...flakes just starting to grow in size in ROC now..

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Snowing Heavily in Phoenix. Wondering if that dryslot south of Towanda PA gets into CNY?

That area most likely will fill as it moves north....it's a bit later when the secondary takes off that we would see a quasi-stationary pronounced "downsloping" slot on radar (probably east of CNY). We may taper a here and there but our big rate potentials come in a couple more hours.

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That area most likely will fill as it moves north....it's a bit later when the secondary takes off that we would see a quasi-stationary pronounced "downsloping" slot on radar (probably east of CNY). We may taper a here and there but our big rate potentials come in a couple more hours.

Thanks for the reply. You are the KING!
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Finally got started up here in Ballston Lake with a quick coating on top of 0.5-0.75" on the ground already. Recently relocated here about a week ago from Rotterdam, so haven't had time to set up the weather station yet. First moderate (or heavy - depending on when the sleet moves in) storm in the new house!

Snow started just after 7 PM here. Close to moderate intensity already and 21 degrees.

Edit: Moderate to bordering heavy at times.... very fluffy stuff.

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New update:BGM:.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

8 PM UPDATE... RADAR/SAT LOOPS SHOW A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT

HEADING NWD THROUGH ERN PA ATTM. THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH

MODEL RUNS...AND ALSO THE 18Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOW THIS FEATURE...BUT

HAVE NOT QUITE CAUGHT ON TO ITS QUICK NWD MOVEMENT. THUS...WE`VE SPED

UP THE TRANSITION FROM STEADY HVY SNOW...TO LGTR SNOW...OR A LGT

MIX...GENERALLY OCCURRING FROM 00-03Z...ALG AND JUST E OF THE I-81

CORRIDOR.

ALSO...THE CHARACTER OF THE RADAR ECHOES...PLUS

PLENTIFUL SPOTTER/PUBLIC REPORTS...SHOW A HODGE-PODGE OF

SNOW...SLEET...FZRA BASICALLY ALG AND S OF ROUTE 6 IN NRN PA ATTM.

THIS AREA OF MIXED PCPN WILL PROBABLY EXTEND TO ABT THE I-88

CORRIDOR IN SRN NY TWDS 03-04Z...BUT WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO MOVE

ANY FARTHER TO THE N OR W.

AT THIS JUNCTURE...WE DON`T SEE A LOT OF EVIDENCE THAT THE ERLY

FLOW/TERRAIN INDUCED PCPN SHADOWING...CONSISTENTLY SHOWN BY MANY

OF OUR HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS EVE...HAS DVLPD...OR WILL DVLP.

WE`LL SEE HOW THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ACRS PA DVLPS LTR THIS

EVE...IN THIS REGARD.

BOTTOM LN...WE`RE NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHGS TO OUR SNOW

TOTALS. INITIAL BURST OF VERY HVY SNOW IN OUR FAR SRN ZNS IN THE MID TO

LATE AFTN HRS...HAVE BROUGHT SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 3-6" RANGE ATTM.

GIVEN MIXED PCPN THESE AREAS CURRENTLY...TOTALS WILL LIKELY NOT GO

A GREAT DEAL HIGHER. ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...VERY HVY SNOW THE LAST

SVRL HRS...IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THROUGH ABT

06Z...ESPECIALLY S AND E OF A TOWANDA TO KBGM TO ONEONTA LN. SNOW

TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 4-8" IN MANY LOCALES THROUGHOUT THESE

AREAS SO FAR.

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Moderate in intensity, but sleet line moving north out of the Hudson Valley and Southern New England is making me a bit nervous. Was hoping in might hold off until precip tapers off in the morning, but NWS Albany has rain in their point and clicks around here up to around Corinth for a time tomorrow.

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LEK that dry slot does look ominous for us CNYers.

Here in Morrisville, had heavy snow for a while now, 2-3 inches, maybe more,

but at the moment there's a sleety feel to what's falling.

i'm at 1500 feet at my current location (moved last spring from Fenner)

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LEK that dry slot does look ominous for us CNYers.

Here in Morrisville, had heavy snow for a while now, 2-3 inches, maybe more,

but at the moment there's a sleety feel to what's falling.

i'm at 1500 feet at my current location (moved last spring from Fenner)

We'll see.....some (in the southern part of CNY may indeed be impacted for a bit with a more prolonged period of lighter snows...but I still think that fills and ends up heading more west and shrinking as it does so.

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I don't think it gets any better then this in the WNY region for synoptic snows.

LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS

EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO NEAR LONG ISLAND AROUND DAYBREAK

THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED...WHICH PLACES OUR

REGION IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR SNOWFALL. A COMBINATION OF A 50

TO 70 KNOT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...AND DIFFULENT FLOW ALOFT WILL

COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST

QUADRANT OF THE STORM. IR/RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THIS

NICELY...WITH THIS AXIS HAVING A TROWAL-LIKE APPEARANCE. AT 900

PM...THIS AXIS EXTENDS FROM BUF-ROC-SYR. BASED ON REPORTS AND

MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS BAND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES

OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

MUCH OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS...WITH

THE 18Z NAM/12Z RGEM/HRRR ARE ALL DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB IN

CAPTURING THIS BAND. THIS AXIS HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY

NORTHWARD...BUT IT IS FORECAST TO STALL LATE THIS EVENING...THEN

PIVOT TO A MORE SW-NE ORIENTATION AND THEN GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE

NE. THIS WILL CAUSE THIS BAND TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW

YORK...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN

PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE

NIAGARA FRONTIER. EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES IN THIS

AREA.

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Just took a walk in Delaware Park in what was definitely the heaviest snow so far. Pretty amazing storm. It actually almost felt more like LES. Very small flake size here as it has been since the start. It's just "pouring" snow. Didn't measure, but probably already approaching 8". Keep it coming :)

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