lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Did it play out in the end for you guys? Received about 1cm LES in Guelph last night. got about 1/2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Dusting in N Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Now no snow round here till prob Tuesday. At least the next 3 days will be nice with sunny skies and temps in the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This would be nice.. A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The big storm on day 7 is something to keep an eye on for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Both the 12z NAM and 12z GEM show around 0.5" of QPF as snow for ALB. The NAM eventually changes over to rain during Sunday afternoon, while the GEM stays as mostly snow. The low that develops off the coast in the GEM depiction seems to increase the northerly ageostrophic flow which helps keep the cold air at low levels in place. The GFS is less amplified and more positively tilted with the initial shortwave, allowing the primary low to develop further north and bring warmer air into the region. This also causes slower intensification of the low offshore, limiting the colder ageostrophic flow. We'll have to see how the shortwave evolves over the next few days to know if the air can remain cold enough for mainly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 How does Lake Placid/SLK look for this weekend and early next week? It's great to read this discussion, it's fascinating how much goes into a weather forecast! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro has all rain for wave 1 for kalb/kuca, but delivers 4"+ with the 2nd wave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 How does Lake Placid/SLK look for this weekend and early next week? It's great to read this discussion, it's fascinating how much goes into a weather forecast! -skisheep Euro shows an icy mix up there with wave 1, about a couple inches with wave 2.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Thanks! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Lakes will stir a bit Tues eve/night....then we can definitively issue a full fledged "Lake Erie and Ontario wake up alert"......T minus ~100 hours...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Lakes will stir a bit Tues eve/night....then we can definitively issue a full fledged "Lake Erie and Ontario wake up alert"......T minus ~100 hours...... Mr King......Planning the annual family ski trip to the Peak Dec 26th to Jan 2nd. Does it look like the period could be active for LES or should I be just looking forward to 21-23 of December laying a good foundation and then back to warm? Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Mr King......Planning the annual family ski trip to the Peak Dec 26th to Jan 2nd. Does it look like the period could be active for LES or should I be just looking forward to 21-23 of December laying a good foundation and then back to warm? Thanks!!! That range is still a tough call, but I'd lean toward a more winter like regime than we have been having currently. We may warm up, but I think a good deal of the area downwind of the lakes and in the upslope regions, will feel winter pretty harshly this weekend for the first time in almost 2 years! We certainly should moderate a bit after Christmas but how much is yet to be determined. Euro is COLD for this Sunday!!! (and very snowy for many localized spots!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 That range is still a tough call, but I'd lean toward a more winter like regime than we have been having currently. We may warm up, but I think a good deal of the area downwind of the lakes and in the upslope regions, will feel winter pretty harshly this weekend for the first time in almost 2 years! We certainly should moderate a bit after Christmas but how much is yet to be determined. Euro is COLD for this Sunday!!! (and very snowy for many localized spots!!) Thanks...looking forward to some good winter weather!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 That range is still a tough call, but I'd lean toward a more winter like regime than we have been having currently. We may warm up, but I think a good deal of the area downwind of the lakes and in the upslope regions, will feel winter pretty harshly this weekend for the first time in almost 2 years! We certainly should moderate a bit after Christmas but how much is yet to be determined. Euro is COLD for this Sunday!!! (and very snowy for many localized spots!!) Looking nice for my trip to Albany this Sun! Several days of snow for parts of upstate NY, especially from Syracuse on into the Tug Hill. Probably 80% lake-effect but some enhancement to the north as that inverted trough / remnant TROWL backs in from the east on Mon. Maybe even some light Hudson / Mohawk valley convergence and upslope snows for the Greens / Berkshires thrown in there for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 How far east/north does Lake Effect normally go? Does it go all the way across the adirondacks to near Lake Champlain or does it stop west of that? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 How far east/north does Lake Effect normally go? Does it go all the way across the adirondacks to near Lake Champlain or does it stop west of that? -skisheep Depends on many factors (cloud height... ie LCL, shear, speed, ambient moisture, local orographic effects...etc.) Let's just say that with the progged setup, many of the above stated factors should be pretty good to have decent chances for light to mod. accumulating snows for much of the higher terrain of the NE.....along with the localized LES jackpots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Latest BUFFALO AFD: I will take it! THE DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AND TRACK WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE...AND IT WILL PROBABLY STILL BE A FEW DAYS BEFORE WE HAVE A MORE PRECISE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN EVOLUTION. IN A GENERAL SENSE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WRAP AROUND/COMMA HEAD ARRIVES. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH INTENSITY DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF AND SURFACE LOW END UP STALLING. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME HELP FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REMAINS STRONGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. IT WILL STILL BE WINDY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER ON SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW...ALTHOUGH TO WHAT EXTENT STILL DEPENDS ON WHERE IT ENDS UP STALLING. FOR NOW WILL JUST RUN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MAYBE EVEN BELOW AVERAGE IF THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro text for a few locations.. KUCA FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.3 -1.6 1004 94 98 0.13 550 547 FRI 12Z 21-DEC 2.9 0.0 998 97 100 0.25 541 543 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.0 -2.3 991 99 100 0.63 531 539 SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.1 -4.9 988 96 95 0.22 523 533 SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.0 -5.0 985 97 100 0.21 519 531 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.9 -8.8 990 90 98 0.39 518 527 SAT 18Z 22-DEC -5.4 -12.4 996 81 99 0.32 520 523 SUN 00Z 23-DEC -6.5 -13.3 1003 85 95 0.17 523 521 SUN 06Z 23-DEC -6.5 -12.9 1004 86 58 0.07 521 518 SUN 12Z 23-DEC -8.6 -14.9 1007 86 87 0.05 520 514 SUN 18Z 23-DEC -8.7 -16.7 1009 74 95 0.04 522 515 MON 00Z 24-DEC -9.5 -15.7 1012 83 94 0.04 525 516 MON 06Z 24-DEC -11.0 -15.0 1012 84 89 0.03 526 516 MON 12Z 24-DEC -11.3 -14.4 1014 85 82 0.03 527 517 KSYR FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.5 0.9 1001 94 97 0.25 549 549 FRI 12Z 21-DEC 4.5 -0.2 997 96 100 0.25 538 541 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.8 -4.3 991 95 98 0.31 529 536 SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.3 -4.7 989 94 97 0.05 523 531 SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.3 -5.7 988 97 99 0.28 520 530 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -3.0 -10.4 993 86 99 0.46 521 526 SAT 18Z 22-DEC -4.5 -12.9 999 81 98 0.43 522 522 SUN 00Z 23-DEC -4.0 -12.3 1004 80 74 0.20 525 522 SUN 06Z 23-DEC -4.6 -12.5 1006 81 61 0.06 521 517 SUN 12Z 23-DEC -6.4 -14.7 1008 81 97 0.06 520 514 SUN 18Z 23-DEC -6.8 -16.0 1010 73 91 0.05 522 515 MON 00Z 24-DEC -6.9 -15.5 1013 79 90 0.05 525 515 MON 06Z 24-DEC -8.0 -15.8 1014 80 82 0.04 526 516 MON 12Z 24-DEC -8.9 -15.9 1015 83 82 0.03 527 516 Kalb FRI 12Z 21-DEC 4.0 1.0 1000 97 98 0.23 547 546 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 6.1 2.9 987 96 99 0.72 536 547 SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.1 -3.9 987 91 74 0.49 524 534 SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.6 -4.9 984 94 99 0.09 517 530 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -0.7 -6.9 986 84 96 0.12 517 528 SAT 18Z 22-DEC -2.2 -9.6 991 72 97 0.06 518 525 SUN 00Z 23-DEC -5.1 -11.4 999 73 96 0.03 521 522 SUN 06Z 23-DEC -5.6 -12.6 1002 77 85 0.02 522 520 SUN 12Z 23-DEC -7.4 -13.8 1004 78 77 0.01 519 516 SUN 18Z 23-DEC -5.7 -15.4 1006 60 97 0.01 521 516 MON 00Z 24-DEC -8.5 -14.2 1009 72 94 0.01 524 517 MON 06Z 24-DEC -9.4 -12.8 1009 72 97 0.02 524 518 MON 12Z 24-DEC -9.8 -11.0 1010 73 91 0.04 526 519 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro text for a few locations.. KUCA FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.3 -1.6 1004 94 98 0.13 550 547 FRI 12Z 21-DEC 2.9 0.0 998 97 100 0.25 541 543 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.0 -2.3 991 99 100 0.63 531 539 SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.1 -4.9 988 96 95 0.22 523 533 SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.0 -5.0 985 97 100 0.21 519 531 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.9 -8.8 990 90 98 0.39 518 527 SAT 18Z 22-DEC -5.4 -12.4 996 81 99 0.32 520 523 SUN 00Z 23-DEC -6.5 -13.3 1003 85 95 0.17 523 521 SUN 06Z 23-DEC -6.5 -12.9 1004 86 58 0.07 521 518 SUN 12Z 23-DEC -8.6 -14.9 1007 86 87 0.05 520 514 SUN 18Z 23-DEC -8.7 -16.7 1009 74 95 0.04 522 515 MON 00Z 24-DEC -9.5 -15.7 1012 83 94 0.04 525 516 MON 06Z 24-DEC -11.0 -15.0 1012 84 89 0.03 526 516 MON 12Z 24-DEC -11.3 -14.4 1014 85 82 0.03 527 517 KSYR FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.5 0.9 1001 94 97 0.25 549 549 FRI 12Z 21-DEC 4.5 -0.2 997 96 100 0.25 538 541 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.8 -4.3 991 95 98 0.31 529 536 SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.3 -4.7 989 94 97 0.05 523 531 SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.3 -5.7 988 97 99 0.28 520 530 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -3.0 -10.4 993 86 99 0.46 521 526 SAT 18Z 22-DEC -4.5 -12.9 999 81 98 0.43 522 522 SUN 00Z 23-DEC -4.0 -12.3 1004 80 74 0.20 525 522 SUN 06Z 23-DEC -4.6 -12.5 1006 81 61 0.06 521 517 SUN 12Z 23-DEC -6.4 -14.7 1008 81 97 0.06 520 514 SUN 18Z 23-DEC -6.8 -16.0 1010 73 91 0.05 522 515 MON 00Z 24-DEC -6.9 -15.5 1013 79 90 0.05 525 515 MON 06Z 24-DEC -8.0 -15.8 1014 80 82 0.04 526 516 MON 12Z 24-DEC -8.9 -15.9 1015 83 82 0.03 527 516 Kalb FRI 12Z 21-DEC 4.0 1.0 1000 97 98 0.23 547 546 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 6.1 2.9 987 96 99 0.72 536 547 SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.1 -3.9 987 91 74 0.49 524 534 SAT 06Z 22-DEC 0.6 -4.9 984 94 99 0.09 517 530 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -0.7 -6.9 986 84 96 0.12 517 528 SAT 18Z 22-DEC -2.2 -9.6 991 72 97 0.06 518 525 SUN 00Z 23-DEC -5.1 -11.4 999 73 96 0.03 521 522 SUN 06Z 23-DEC -5.6 -12.6 1002 77 85 0.02 522 520 SUN 12Z 23-DEC -7.4 -13.8 1004 78 77 0.01 519 516 SUN 18Z 23-DEC -5.7 -15.4 1006 60 97 0.01 521 516 MON 00Z 24-DEC -8.5 -14.2 1009 72 94 0.01 524 517 MON 06Z 24-DEC -9.4 -12.8 1009 72 97 0.02 524 518 MON 12Z 24-DEC -9.8 -11.0 1010 73 91 0.04 526 519 Have any for KBuf or Rochester? Syracuse is going to get destroyed out of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Have any for KBuf or Rochester? Syracuse is going to get destroyed out of this pattern. FRI 06Z 21-DEC 4.1 3.3 997 90 97 0.20 545 548 FRI 12Z 21-DEC 4.6 -4.9 995 75 60 0.03 532 536 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 3.7 -5.0 991 68 83 0.01 526 533 SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.8 -4.3 992 96 99 0.09 524 530 SAT 06Z 22-DEC -1.0 -8.9 995 81 98 0.20 524 528 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.9 -11.4 1000 79 98 0.23 526 526 SAT 18Z 22-DEC -2.5 -11.2 1003 75 73 0.12 526 524 SUN 00Z 23-DEC -2.9 -11.7 1007 74 43 0.01 528 522 SUN 06Z 23-DEC -3.6 -13.0 1008 76 88 0.01 522 516 SUN 12Z 23-DEC -5.6 -14.6 1010 77 78 0.02 522 514 SUN 18Z 23-DEC -4.7 -15.3 1012 65 97 0.02 524 515 MON 00Z 24-DEC -6.0 -15.6 1015 74 93 0.01 526 514 MON 06Z 24-DEC -7.0 -15.9 1016 77 66 0.02 527 515 MON 12Z 24-DEC -8.2 -16.2 1017 79 56 0.01 526 513 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 How's the lake effect looking for southern oswego county area for this weekend? I have no idea what the image above means since i'm not good with weather models and all that lol. Guessing the Cuse may get it good with LES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 How's the lake effect looking for southern oswego county area for this weekend? I have no idea what the image above means since i'm not good with weather models and all that lol. Guessing the Cuse may get it good with LES? Your probably in one of the best possible spots for the most accumulation of snow from Friday-Monday period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Sweet that's what i wanted to hear. Bring on the LES, i'm ready to ride my snowmobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Can you punch in SLK for the euro? Or just a general guess on how the lake effect/upslope might look for this weekend? Thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Can you punch in SLK for the euro? Or just a general guess on how the lake effect/upslope might look for this weekend? Thanks -skisheep they do better in SW winds, they will get some upslope but prob not more than a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 they do better in SW winds, they will get some upslope but prob not more than a few inches. Noreaster 27....I am from out of state but will be in SW Chautauqua County Christmas to New Years. Does the Findley Lake-Sherman area do well in this general pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Noreaster 27....I am from out of state but will be in SW Chautauqua County Christmas to New Years. Does the Findley Lake-Sherman area do well in this general pattern? is that west of jamestown? you will get some snow, too early to say how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Do people here think Toronto is going to get any snow before Christmas, even just a couple of inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 is that west of jamestown? you will get some snow, too early to say how much. Yes.....West of Jamestown in the very SW corner of the state. Elevation is about 1600 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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