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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


Alpha5

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2236

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0114 PM CST WED DEC 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL NY...FAR NRN PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261914Z - 270045Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL ADVANCE NWD/NEWD

INTO AND ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS REGION OF NRN PA AND SRN NY DURING

THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE APPROACHING PARTS OF SERN NY AND UPSTATE

NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED SNOW RATES TO 3 IN/HR MAY ALSO

OCCUR. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF A

LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT AN

INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS

AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE

CYCLONE TRACKS NEWD.

RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HEAVY SNOW IN IPT AND BFD IN

ASSOCIATION WITH A W/E-ORIENTED BAND OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY PER

RADAR MOSAIC DATA. THIS BAND MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF HEAVY SNOW

THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE WILL ADVANCE

NWD ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS REGION OF NRN PA/SRN NY...REACHING A

WELLSVILLE-ELM-BGM LINE AROUND/SHORTLY BEFORE 20Z...AND REACHING

LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION INCLUDING ITH

AND SYR MAINLY AFTER 21Z. SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE

POCONOS INTO SERN NY THROUGH 00Z...WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE

CAPITAL DISTRICT AROUND ALB AFTER 00Z.

THE STRONGLY ASCENDING BRANCH OF A DEEP FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION

CROSSING THE AREA WILL AUGMENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTERSECTING

SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES BETWEEN 550 MB AND 490 MB. THIS

WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR INTO THIS

EVENING. FURTHERMORE...MODESTLY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES...ACCOMPANYING ADIABATIC COOLING PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH

DCVA PRECEDING THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTER...WILL SUPPORT NARROW

ELEVATED CAPE LAYERS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. ISOLATED

INSTANCES OF 3-IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES...AND A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR

TWO...CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.

AFTER 00Z ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NY AND FAR NERN PA...WARM ADVECTION

BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MELTING OF FALLING

HYDROMETEORS ATOP SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN. A PHASE CHANGE TO RAIN COULD OCCUR WHERE SFC

TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

..COHEN.. 12/26/2012

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gonna be hard to measure as they just came and snowblowed everything but Id estimate close to 2.5" here now and coming down plain HEAVY now.

Just went for a drive around the area, was pretty awesome. ( I actually enjoy driving in the snow) Road conditions are pretty bad, lots of slush. Few inches already on the ground. Quite a bit of blowing snow as well.

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