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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


Alpha5

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I wonder if its overdone up there near Ottawa. Not saying it won't be a signifcant snowfall, but that qpf seems extreme. It even gives me 1.5" qpf, essentially all snow ..could be some minor sleet threat after a load has fallen.

00z NAM crushes WNY and syracuse area through eastern ontario.

i was surprises to see 12z euro still throw so much qpf back westward even though its track shifted eastward from what i can tell on the free maps.

thats an ominous sign that they are picking up the best deformation zone.

NAM crushes the area with 12+ and ottawa see another 18+ inches lol

man am i going to be upset soon! :)

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00Z NAM destroys ROC/BUF, probably SYR also and up to Ottawa.. Dry slot & mix line flirts with the arc from BGM to UCA to ALB.

the NAM continues to be on the northern side of guidance.. we'll have to see if the rest of the 00z suite comes north from 12z. Downsloping looks like it will be a real problem in the hudson valley if you believe the NAM.

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I wonder if its overdone up there near Ottawa. Not saying it won't be a signifcant snowfall, but that qpf seems extreme. It even gives me 1.5" qpf, essentially all snow ..could be some minor sleet threat after a load has fallen.

it has to be overdone

thats a lot of qpf everywhere and that bullseye seems susicious.

of course there is a nice dry area over me and lots of vermont for that matter.

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the NAM continues to be on the northern side of guidance.. we'll have to see if the rest of the 00z suite comes north from 12z. Downsloping looks like it will be a real problem in the hudson valley if you believe the NAM.

Yeah qpf fields the most notoriously unreliable, NAM prob overdone, it frequently is, but axis of heaviest snow may be accurate, or possibly shifted east a bit if it is too far NW. Looks like a big slug of moisture coming regardless, then we'll have to see what happens with dry slotting and def band set up. 700 mb panel usually a good clue.

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Yeah qpf fields the most notoriously unreliable, NAM prob overdone, it frequently is, but axis of heaviest snow may be accurate, or possibly shifted east a bit if it is too far NW. Looks like a big slug of moisture coming regardless, then we'll have to see what happens with dry slotting and def band set up. 700 mb panel usually a good clue.

yeah this is not an ideal set up.. it looks like the best lift will be in northern/western areas well northwest of the low center. Further east we get a nice burst of WAA snow along with some orographic enhancement. It's gonna be interesting to see how well the models are handling where the low center redevelops east of the apps.

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Well 00Z GFS a big hit for CNY, WNY. Even ALB looks solid on this run...going to flirt with R/S line near ALB and esp BGM. BGM-UCA corridor does look like it also has some downslope issues. Doesn't look like dry slot...that stays S & E as can be seen at 700 mb. That 540 thickness line is a classic pattern that I've seen way more often than not with coastal systems over the years. Generally good for the interior.

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It gets a little close for comfort after 12Z Thursday as the 0C 850 line just about touches Albany, but I think I'm probably ok 25 miles west. In any event, a large % of the snow has fallen by then.

GFS has 1.25" as opposed to the NAM's 1.50" .

Well 00Z GFS a big hit for CNY, WNY. Even ALB looks solid on this run...going to flirt with R/S line near ALB and esp BGM. BGM-UCA corridor does look like it also has some downslope issues. Doesn't look like dry slot...that stays S & E as can be seen at 700 mb. That 540 thickness line is a classic pattern that I've seen way more often than not with coastal systems over the years. Generally good for the interior.

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It gets a little close for comfort after 12Z Thursday as the 0C 850 line just about touches Albany, but I think I'm probably ok 25 miles west. In any event, a large % of the snow has fallen by then.

GFS has 1.25" as opposed to the NAM's 1.50" .

looks like the 00z ukmet and canadian are colder and slightly further south with the sfc low. ALB stays all snow unless theres a sneaky warm nose at 800 hPa. I would think you're sitting pretty in the high terrain west of ALB.. this would have to bump northwest 30 miles for you to flirt with pingers.

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The 00z GFS has 1.19" QPF as all snow for ALB, though it does get close to freezing just above 850 mb around 18z Thursday. The 00z NAM only has a few hours of snow at the onset of precipitation before a layer above freezing develops around 800 mb. The NAM scenario is warmer than the GFS with around half of the precip falling as either rain or IP.

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It's just nice to be in the heart of this storm and not on the west fringe looking east or south like so many events since 2009.

I'll take the pinger risk ..it's always a close brush when you get a coastal hugging track.

looks like the 00z ukmet and canadian are colder and slightly further south with the sfc low. ALB stays all snow unless theres a sneaky warm nose at 800 hPa. I would think you're sitting pretty in the high terrain west of ALB.. this would have to bump northwest 30 miles for you to flirt with pingers.

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I can understand the HV downsloping off the western NE mountains on east winds. But I don't get what kind of downloping would be affecting Central NY. I have seen downloping along that I-90 corridor at times on south winds with the hill country just south, but that's not the case here.

Gfs looks pretty extreme with that downsloping

Nam looks like it shows it also but a much lesser version

http://meteocentre.c...PN_060_0000.gif

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I can understand the HV downsloping off the western NE mountains on east winds. But I don't get what kind of downloping would be affecting Central NY. I have seen downloping along that I-90 corridor at times on south winds with the hill country just south, but that's not the case here.

Agree, it's a bizarre depiction and one that I'm hard pressed to recall ever happening. Not to say its impossible but the HV is more prone to that effect. It's def not a dryslot being depicted (unless its a remnant of the original low). Will be interesting to see if it verifies. You look pretty safe to stay snow in your area IMO unless the NAM scores a coup,

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Here is my first call for snowfall accumulation in Upstate NY.

post-869-0-68149100-1356446633_thumb.gif

I think that there will be significant terrain effects during most of this event due to anomalously strong easterly winds. The Hudson Valley will therefore see much lower totals than the high terrain to the east and west due to downsloping. The area from Albany northward looks to remain mostly snow at this time, with some mixing to the south in The Hudson Valley.

There may also be some downsloping west of The Adirondacks which may reduce totals there as well. I think there is also a possibility of downsloping west of the Catskills but this is somewhat less certain due to the lower elevation contrast. Upslope over the high terrain will result in locally enhanced snow totals.

Some heavier banding may develop as a result of mid/low level frontogenesis and CSI over parts of WNY. The placement and track of this banding however, still remains in question.

A lot can still change at this point with minor changes in the track of the system affecting the placement of the greatest banding and the rain/snow line. At this time, however, it does look like a moderate to heavy snowfall is fairly likely for a large part of Upstate NY.

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