wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 KALb THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.1 -3.9 1022 60 86 0.01 556 539 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.7 -5.3 1013 83 99 0.26 552 542 THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.5 -5.1 1006 89 98 0.47 544 539 THU 18Z 27-DEC 0.1 -3.8 1003 85 83 0.12 542 539 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -1.4 -5.8 1006 87 97 0.07 541 536 KUCA THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.7 -3.3 1020 72 91 0.02 554 538 THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.2 -6.3 1011 85 100 0.46 549 540 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -6.9 1008 87 96 0.34 543 536 THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.4 -5.9 1007 86 99 0.07 541 536 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -4.3 -6.0 1010 92 87 0.11 541 533 kbuf WED 18Z 26-DEC -4.0 -2.4 1021 70 40 0.00 551 535 THU 00Z 27-DEC -5.3 -3.9 1016 85 99 0.26 549 536 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.8 -6.1 1010 92 99 0.51 544 535 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -9.2 1010 92 98 0.51 540 532 THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.8 -9.4 1013 84 88 0.06 541 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Eri WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.3 -2.8 1017 77 99 0.04 550 537 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.9 -3.1 1011 86 100 0.58 546 537 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.0 -5.4 1008 89 99 0.36 541 535 THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.9 -8.7 1010 88 95 0.14 541 533 THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.8 -9.4 1014 82 72 0.04 543 532 jhw WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.8 -2.6 1018 74 97 0.02 551 538 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.6 -2.1 1011 86 100 0.61 548 538 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -5.8 1008 90 100 0.37 541 535 THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.0 -8.5 1010 91 93 0.23 540 532 THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.4 -10.1 1013 82 82 0.04 542 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Great looking event for MOST.....but BEWARE....as the GFS runs have indicated, there will be an area that receives much less precip somewhere in Upstate...and I think such a dryslot will verify....most likely just west of the Catskills....(downslope aided) George, one of my worst busts ever as a forecaster in BGM was the 12/16 to 12/17/07 event...for the very reason you have mentioned. I just looked at the NARR for that event, and there are some similarities between that one and the upcoming event this week: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us1216.php That, too, featured a primary low cutting up into the Ohio Valley with a weaker secondary low forming over eastern NC then more or less paralleling the coastline up to New England. Our original forecast had been calling for 6-12" of snow in BGM and we kept having to back-pedal as the event drew nearer...until ultimately, only 1-4" verified in western Broome County due to a combination of strong downsloping off the Catskills and warmer-than-progged mlvl temps that resulted in more of a mix than we had anticipated. The 12/2007 event was a great storm for WNY though, with 11.1" falling at BUF on the 16th. I believe there were amounts approaching 18" up in Niagara County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Maybe a red tagger can comment but I took a quick look at the 12Z/24 Euro 700mb RH field and its indicating what appears to be a dryslot running up from the south into (roughly) the I-81 corridor at hour 72. The graphics are rough, below. You can see the comma head formation also. This seems odd given the slp placement just South of NYC near PHL. The RH signature is not downsloping - it has a classic dryslot appearance. For the slp placement I'd expect that dryslot to be a bit further east but we'll see how it develops. Going to be a screw zone for someone from SYR/BGM and points east. WNY looks particularly good/safe for 12"+ on most runs w/ this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Eri WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.3 -2.8 1017 77 99 0.04 550 537 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.9 -3.1 1011 86 100 0.58 546 537 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.0 -5.4 1008 89 99 0.36 541 535 THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.9 -8.7 1010 88 95 0.14 541 533 THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.8 -9.4 1014 82 72 0.04 543 532 jhw WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.8 -2.6 1018 74 97 0.02 551 538 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.6 -2.1 1011 86 100 0.61 548 538 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -5.8 1008 90 100 0.37 541 535 THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.0 -8.5 1010 91 93 0.23 540 532 THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.4 -10.1 1013 82 82 0.04 542 532 Does the text access go out to the weekend potential system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 George, one of my worst busts ever as a forecaster in BGM was the 12/16 to 12/17/07 event...for the very reason you have mentioned. I just looked at the NARR for that event, and there are some similarities between that one and the upcoming event this week: http://www.meteo.psu...2007/us1216.php That, too, featured a primary low cutting up into the Ohio Valley with a weaker secondary low forming over eastern NC then more or less paralleling the coastline up to New England. Our original forecast had been calling for 6-12" of snow in BGM and we kept having to back-pedal as the event drew nearer...until ultimately, only 1-4" verified in western Broome County due to a combination of strong downsloping off the Catskills and warmer-than-progged mlvl temps that resulted in more of a mix than we had anticipated. The 12/2007 event was a great storm for WNY though, with 11.1" falling at BUF on the 16th. I believe there were amounts approaching 18" up in Niagara County. Interesting, but on that 2007 system, look at where the 700mb low is - west of CNY - in this case (I think) most NWP has a closed 700mb feature passing just SE of this area, which is about where you'd want it for large snowfall production. Similarly the 850 center appears to be to our SE on this one, vs directly overhead. I can't see 700mb press lvl on EC data I have available but the other model suites seem to have this idea. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That dry slot on the euro may come after precip is mostly over, utica already receives .8" of precip by 12z thur..(Then precip basically shuts off).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Does the text access go out to the weekend potential system? Just snow showers Maybe .2" between sun and mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Can someone post the numbers for ROC? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Just snow showers Maybe .2" between sun and mon Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Interesting, but on that 2007 system, look at where the 700mb low is - west of CNY - in this case (I think) most NWP has a closed 700mb feature passing just SE of this area, which is about where you'd want it for large snowfall production. Similarly the 850 center appears to be to our SE on this one, vs directly overhead. I can't see 700mb press lvl on EC data I have available but the other model suites seem to have this idea. Something to watch. True, it's certainly not a perfect match. My main point was that, as George has mentioned, there is a signal for localized downsloping to the lee of the Catskills which may result in a QPF minimum near BGM similar to what occurred in the Dec 2007 event. Regarding the ECMWF RH image you posted, it's important to point out that this week's storm system will no longer be deepening by the time it reaches our latitude; in fact it will be an occluded system already. As a result, the dry slot will likely have had the opportunity to wrap all the way around to the north side of the surface low pressure center. That might be what the ECMWF is getting at. It's entirely possible the best deformation and highest snowfall totals end up over Western NY and Northern NY with this event...though the favored upslope regions in eastern parts of the state will give us a run for the money as long as mid-level temps stay in check out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 kroc WED 18Z 26-DEC -4.8 -3.3 1023 71 19 0.00 552 535 THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.7 -4.5 1018 85 97 0.16 550 536 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.7 -5.0 1011 92 100 0.66 546 537 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.1 -8.3 1009 93 98 0.53 541 533 THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.7 -8.7 1011 88 88 0.12 540 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, that second storm means serious business back home in New England over the weekend per the 12z EC. Those of you reading from eastern New York could do very well, too. Hoping my flight out of BUF gets canceled Wednesday evening so I can enjoy both storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 kroc WED 18Z 26-DEC -4.8 -3.3 1023 71 19 0.00 552 535 THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.7 -4.5 1018 85 97 0.16 550 536 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.7 -5.0 1011 92 100 0.66 546 537 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.1 -8.3 1009 93 98 0.53 541 533 THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.7 -8.7 1011 88 88 0.12 540 532 KSLK? Thanks, really appretiate it! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 KSLK? Thanks, really appretiate it! -skisheep THU 06Z 27-DEC -7.9 -4.4 1018 74 95 0.06 551 537 THU 12Z 27-DEC -7.4 -7.6 1013 89 100 0.54 546 536 THU 18Z 27-DEC -5.2 -7.0 1009 90 98 0.23 542 535 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -6.2 -5.6 1010 91 97 0.10 541 533 FRI 06Z 28-DEC -8.5 -8.6 1012 91 72 0.03 540 531 FRI 12Z 28-DEC -8.5 -10.3 1015 92 86 0.02 541 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 THU 06Z 27-DEC -7.9 -4.4 1018 74 95 0.06 551 537 THU 12Z 27-DEC -7.4 -7.6 1013 89 100 0.54 546 536 THU 18Z 27-DEC -5.2 -7.0 1009 90 98 0.23 542 535 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -6.2 -5.6 1010 91 97 0.10 541 533 FRI 06Z 28-DEC -8.5 -8.6 1012 91 72 0.03 540 531 FRI 12Z 28-DEC -8.5 -10.3 1015 92 86 0.02 541 529 Thanks! What sort of snow ratios normally come out of a system like this? I know 10-1 is the baseline but could it be higher? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 True, it's certainly not a perfect match. My main point was that, as George has mentioned, there is a signal for localized downsloping to the lee of the Catskills which may result in a QPF minimum near BGM similar to what occurred in the Dec 2007 event. Regarding the ECMWF RH image you posted, it's important to point out that this week's storm system will no longer be deepening by the time it reaches our latitude; in fact it will be an occluded system already. As a result, the dry slot will likely have had the opportunity to wrap all the way around to the north side of the surface low pressure center. That might be what the ECMWF is getting at. It's entirely possible the best deformation and highest snowfall totals end up over Western NY and Northern NY with this event...though the favored upslope regions in eastern parts of the state will give us a run for the money as long as mid-level temps stay in check out that way. I wasn't thinking through the occlusion and that this will be a well developed system up this way. If that's the case, certainly going to be harder to maintain frozen p-types for very long down towards the coast and SNE. Damming won't matter south of I-90 particularly w/ a marginal antecedent airmass. The 12/29-30 system certainly looks like it has more potential for development and a roughly similar track idea per the EC/GEM. GFS not so much, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The fact that the first system will be occluded also means it might be difficult to get very intense snowfall rates here in Western NY, as the heaviest snowfall within the deformation zone typically coincides with the period of most rapid deepening. Of course there are always exceptions to every rule, such as CSI banding which can occur when you get an overlap of frontogenesis and -EPV. Some pretty weak weather systems have produced surprisingly heavy snowfall amounts due to CSI banding, but it's still a bit early to project whether or not that will come into play. I have to keep reminding myself that we are still a good 48 hours away from the first flakes here in BUF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What is the best case scenario for tonight in Sullivan County if no ZR mixes in, is two inches a certainty tonight? Getting ramped up for midweek...My dream scenario 4 inches tonight, 6-12 for midweek and 3 -6 sat into sunday, then I can happily go home to Long Island Tuesday fully fulfilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW FROM A LARGE WINTER STORM. * ACCUMULATIONS...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN 7 INCHES OF SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A FOOT IN SOME LOCATIONS. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. * WINDS...EAST WIND INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...BECOMING NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS IF NOT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thanks! What sort of snow ratios normally come out of a system like this? I know 10-1 is the baseline but could it be higher? -skisheep I'm not sure to be honest with you..Best to leave that to the pros lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm not sure to be honest with you..Best to leave that to the pros lol Honesty is much appretiated! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm not sure to be honest with you..Best to leave that to the pros lol I don't anticipate very high ratios with the midweek storm. Unfortunately I'm having issues viewing bufkit cross sections which is really the best way to determine the potential for efficient snow growth (the max omega should be located within the layer of the atmosphere where temperatures are between -12C and -16C). The mid levels looks rather warm, especially down in Sullivan County...so I'm envisioning small snowflakes comprised of mainly plates and needles, which will likely yield a 10:1 ratio at most. I certainly do not expect the ratios to be any higher than 10:1 given the warm mid-level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam precip, looks like the euro with up to an inch of precip before the slot move in.. http://raleighwx.ame...amp24_NE072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Winter Storm Watch for Buffalo Area: * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS UP TO A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 BTV says that they will most likely issue watches tonight. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...NORTHERN CATSKILLS...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY OF GREENE AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. * ACCUMULATIONS...A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADWAYS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 From the NWS: BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD FOLLOW THE MAIN DEFORMATION AXIS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK…WHICH COULD BE NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR. CROSS SECTIONAL DATA SUGGESTING MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND LIFT. "That deformation zone could take 4-5 hours to cross Western New York…" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00Z NAM destroys ROC/BUF, probably SYR also and up to Ottawa.. Dry slot & mix line flirts with the arc from BGM to UCA to ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00z NAM crushes WNY and syracuse area through eastern ontario. i was surprises to see 12z euro still throw so much qpf back westward even though its track shifted eastward from what i can tell on the free maps. thats an ominous sign that they are picking up the best deformation zone. NAM crushes the area with 12+ and ottawa see another 18+ inches lol man am i going to be upset soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.