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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December

Alpha5

By Alpha5,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

KALb

THU 00Z 27-DEC  -2.1    -3.9    1022	  60	  86    0.01	 556	 539   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -2.7    -5.3    1013	  83	  99    0.26	 552	 542   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -1.5    -5.1    1006	  89	  98    0.47	 544	 539   
THU 18Z 27-DEC   0.1    -3.8    1003	  85	  83    0.12	 542	 539   
FRI 00Z 28-DEC  -1.4    -5.8    1006	  87	  97    0.07	 541	 536

KUCA

THU 00Z 27-DEC  -3.7    -3.3    1020	  72	  91    0.02	 554	 538   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -4.2    -6.3    1011	  85	 100    0.46	 549	 540   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -3.7    -6.9    1008	  87	  96    0.34	 543	 536   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -1.4    -5.9    1007	  86	  99    0.07	 541	 536   
FRI 00Z 28-DEC  -4.3    -6.0    1010	  92	  87    0.11	 541	 533

kbuf

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -4.0    -2.4    1021	  70	  40    0.00	 551	 535   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -5.3    -3.9    1016	  85	  99    0.26	 549	 536   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -2.8    -6.1    1010	  92	  99    0.51	 544	 535   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -3.7    -9.2    1010	  92	  98    0.51	 540	 532   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -3.8    -9.4    1013	  84	  88    0.06	 541	 531

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Eri

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -2.3    -2.8    1017	  77	  99    0.04	 550	 537   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -1.9    -3.1    1011	  86	 100    0.58	 546	 537   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -2.0    -5.4    1008	  89	  99    0.36	 541	 535   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -1.9    -8.7    1010	  88	  95    0.14	 541	 533   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -2.8    -9.4    1014	  82	  72    0.04	 543	 532

jhw

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -3.8    -2.6    1018	  74	  97    0.02	 551	 538   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -3.6    -2.1    1011	  86	 100    0.61	 548	 538   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -3.3    -5.8    1008	  90	 100    0.37	 541	 535   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -4.0    -8.5    1010	  91	  93    0.23	 540	 532   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -3.4   -10.1    1013	  82	  82    0.04	 542	 532

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Great looking event for MOST.....but BEWARE....as the GFS runs have indicated, there will be an area that receives much less precip somewhere in Upstate...and I think such a dryslot will verify....most likely just west of the Catskills....(downslope aided)

George, one of my worst busts ever as a forecaster in BGM was the 12/16 to 12/17/07 event...for the very reason you have mentioned. I just looked at the NARR for that event, and there are some similarities between that one and the upcoming event this week:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us1216.php

That, too, featured a primary low cutting up into the Ohio Valley with a weaker secondary low forming over eastern NC then more or less paralleling the coastline up to New England. Our original forecast had been calling for 6-12" of snow in BGM and we kept having to back-pedal as the event drew nearer...until ultimately, only 1-4" verified in western Broome County due to a combination of strong downsloping off the Catskills and warmer-than-progged mlvl temps that resulted in more of a mix than we had anticipated.

The 12/2007 event was a great storm for WNY though, with 11.1" falling at BUF on the 16th. I believe there were amounts approaching 18" up in Niagara County.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

Maybe a red tagger can comment but I took a quick look at the 12Z/24 Euro 700mb RH field and its indicating what appears to be a dryslot running up from the south into (roughly) the I-81 corridor at hour 72. The graphics are rough, below. You can see the comma head formation also. This seems odd given the slp placement just South of NYC near PHL. The RH signature is not downsloping - it has a classic dryslot appearance. For the slp placement I'd expect that dryslot to be a bit further east but we'll see how it develops. Going to be a screw zone for someone from SYR/BGM and points east. WNY looks particularly good/safe for 12"+ on most runs w/ this system.

post-3165-0-92630500-1356373887_thumb.pn

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schinz

schinz

Posted
Posted

Eri

WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.3 -2.8 1017	 77	 99 0.04	 550	 537
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.9 -3.1 1011	 86	 100 0.58	 546	 537
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.0 -5.4 1008	 89	 99 0.36	 541	 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.9 -8.7 1010	 88	 95 0.14	 541	 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.8 -9.4 1014	 82	 72 0.04	 543	 532

jhw

WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.8 -2.6 1018	 74	 97 0.02	 551	 538
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.6 -2.1 1011	 86	 100 0.61	 548	 538
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -5.8 1008	 90	 100 0.37	 541	 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.0 -8.5 1010	 91	 93 0.23	 540	 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.4 -10.1 1013	 82	 82 0.04	 542	 532

Does the text access go out to the weekend potential system?

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

George, one of my worst busts ever as a forecaster in BGM was the 12/16 to 12/17/07 event...for the very reason you have mentioned. I just looked at the NARR for that event, and there are some similarities between that one and the upcoming event this week:

http://www.meteo.psu...2007/us1216.php

That, too, featured a primary low cutting up into the Ohio Valley with a weaker secondary low forming over eastern NC then more or less paralleling the coastline up to New England. Our original forecast had been calling for 6-12" of snow in BGM and we kept having to back-pedal as the event drew nearer...until ultimately, only 1-4" verified in western Broome County due to a combination of strong downsloping off the Catskills and warmer-than-progged mlvl temps that resulted in more of a mix than we had anticipated.

The 12/2007 event was a great storm for WNY though, with 11.1" falling at BUF on the 16th. I believe there were amounts approaching 18" up in Niagara County.

Interesting, but on that 2007 system, look at where the 700mb low is - west of CNY - in this case (I think) most NWP has a closed 700mb feature passing just SE of this area, which is about where you'd want it for large snowfall production. Similarly the 850 center appears to be to our SE on this one, vs directly overhead. I can't see 700mb press lvl on EC data I have available but the other model suites seem to have this idea. Something to watch.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Interesting, but on that 2007 system, look at where the 700mb low is - west of CNY - in this case (I think) most NWP has a closed 700mb feature passing just SE of this area, which is about where you'd want it for large snowfall production. Similarly the 850 center appears to be to our SE on this one, vs directly overhead. I can't see 700mb press lvl on EC data I have available but the other model suites seem to have this idea. Something to watch.

True, it's certainly not a perfect match. My main point was that, as George has mentioned, there is a signal for localized downsloping to the lee of the Catskills which may result in a QPF minimum near BGM similar to what occurred in the Dec 2007 event.

Regarding the ECMWF RH image you posted, it's important to point out that this week's storm system will no longer be deepening by the time it reaches our latitude; in fact it will be an occluded system already. As a result, the dry slot will likely have had the opportunity to wrap all the way around to the north side of the surface low pressure center. That might be what the ECMWF is getting at.

It's entirely possible the best deformation and highest snowfall totals end up over Western NY and Northern NY with this event...though the favored upslope regions in eastern parts of the state will give us a run for the money as long as mid-level temps stay in check out that way.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

kroc

WED 18Z 26-DEC -4.8 -3.3 1023	 71	 19 0.00	 552	 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.7 -4.5 1018	 85	 97 0.16	 550	 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.7 -5.0 1011	 92	 100 0.66	 546	 537
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.1 -8.3 1009	 93	 98 0.53	 541	 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.7 -8.7 1011	 88	 88 0.12	 540	 532

KSLK? Thanks, really appretiate it!

-skisheep

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

KSLK? Thanks, really appretiate it!

-skisheep

THU 06Z 27-DEC  -7.9    -4.4    1018	  74	  95    0.06	 551	 537   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -7.4    -7.6    1013	  89	 100    0.54	 546	 536   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -5.2    -7.0    1009	  90	  98    0.23	 542	 535   
FRI 00Z 28-DEC  -6.2    -5.6    1010	  91	  97    0.10	 541	 533   
FRI 06Z 28-DEC  -8.5    -8.6    1012	  91	  72    0.03	 540	 531   
FRI 12Z 28-DEC  -8.5   -10.3    1015	  92	  86    0.02	 541	 529

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted 

THU 06Z 27-DEC -7.9 -4.4 1018	 74	 95 0.06	 551	 537
THU 12Z 27-DEC -7.4 -7.6 1013	 89	 100 0.54	 546	 536
THU 18Z 27-DEC -5.2 -7.0 1009	 90	 98 0.23	 542	 535
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -6.2 -5.6 1010	 91	 97 0.10	 541	 533
FRI 06Z 28-DEC -8.5 -8.6 1012	 91	 72 0.03	 540	 531
FRI 12Z 28-DEC -8.5 -10.3 1015	 92	 86 0.02	 541	 529

Thanks! What sort of snow ratios normally come out of a system like this? I know 10-1 is the baseline but could it be higher?

-skisheep

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

True, it's certainly not a perfect match. My main point was that, as George has mentioned, there is a signal for localized downsloping to the lee of the Catskills which may result in a QPF minimum near BGM similar to what occurred in the Dec 2007 event.

Regarding the ECMWF RH image you posted, it's important to point out that this week's storm system will no longer be deepening by the time it reaches our latitude; in fact it will be an occluded system already. As a result, the dry slot will likely have had the opportunity to wrap all the way around to the north side of the surface low pressure center. That might be what the ECMWF is getting at.

It's entirely possible the best deformation and highest snowfall totals end up over Western NY and Northern NY with this event...though the favored upslope regions in eastern parts of the state will give us a run for the money as long as mid-level temps stay in check out that way.

I wasn't thinking through the occlusion and that this will be a well developed system up this way. If that's the case, certainly going to be harder to maintain frozen p-types for very long down towards the coast and SNE. Damming won't matter south of I-90 particularly w/ a marginal antecedent airmass. The 12/29-30 system certainly looks like it has more potential for development and a roughly similar track idea per the EC/GEM. GFS not so much, as usual.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

The fact that the first system will be occluded also means it might be difficult to get very intense snowfall rates here in Western NY, as the heaviest snowfall within the deformation zone typically coincides with the period of most rapid deepening. Of course there are always exceptions to every rule, such as CSI banding which can occur when you get an overlap of frontogenesis and -EPV. Some pretty weak weather systems have produced surprisingly heavy snowfall amounts due to CSI banding, but it's still a bit early to project whether or not that will come into play. I have to keep reminding myself that we are still a good 48 hours away from the first flakes here in BUF!

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS...MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA.
* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW FROM A LARGE WINTER STORM.
* ACCUMULATIONS...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN 7
INCHES OF SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A FOOT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
* WINDS...EAST WIND INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...BECOMING NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS IF NOT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure to be honest with you..Best to leave that to the pros lol

I don't anticipate very high ratios with the midweek storm. Unfortunately I'm having issues viewing bufkit cross sections which is really the best way to determine the potential for efficient snow growth (the max omega should be located within the layer of the atmosphere where temperatures are between -12C and -16C). The mid levels looks rather warm, especially down in Sullivan County...so I'm envisioning small snowflakes comprised of mainly plates and needles, which will likely yield a 10:1 ratio at most. I certainly do not expect the ratios to be any higher than 10:1 given the warm mid-level temps.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Winter Storm Watch for Buffalo Area:

* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY

AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS UP TO A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING

CONDITIONS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH

THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH

THURSDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE

SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL

REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL

TACONICS...NORTHERN CATSKILLS...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY OF GREENE

AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SOME MIXING WITH SLEET

AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF

THE CAPITAL REGION.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY.

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE

CAPITAL REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADWAYS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS

TRAVEL.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

From the NWS:

BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD FOLLOW THE MAIN

DEFORMATION AXIS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK…WHICH COULD BE NEAR 2

INCHES PER HOUR. CROSS SECTIONAL DATA SUGGESTING MOST OF WESTERN

AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND LIFT.

"That deformation zone could take 4-5 hours to cross Western New York…"

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

00z NAM crushes WNY and syracuse area through eastern ontario.

i was surprises to see 12z euro still throw so much qpf back westward even though its track shifted eastward from what i can tell on the free maps.

thats an ominous sign that they are picking up the best deformation zone.

NAM crushes the area with 12+ and ottawa see another 18+ inches lol

man am i going to be upset soon! :)

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