Logan11 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's looking more and more like we could be in the sweet spot here in the elevated terrain west of the Capital District. Last winter being such a joke, this would be the first good snowstorm since early March 2011. Per NAM bufkit we get 0.73" QPF as snow from 3PM-11PM Wednesday followed by 0.30" as freezing rain from 11PM-1AM Thursday followed by another 0.26" as snow from 1AM-7AM Thursday. Mid-level temps are pretty lousy for the duration of the storm, so even when it's snowing I'm not anticipating very good ratios out of this...but it's a pretty solid event regardless. Looks like a crushing snowstorm for the Catskills and especially the Adirondacks if you extrapolate beyond 84hrs. Anomalously strong easterly LLJ means those of you reading from the Hudson Valley may get downsloped to death, but this is a really good solution for the ski resorts in the eastern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 How does it look for Liberty NY in Sullivan County? Is 6 inches a lock midweek? Is there an event to add to that this coming weekend? Does tomorrow night's event of 2-4 reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 How does it look for Liberty NY in Sullivan County? Is 6 inches a lock midweek? Is there an event to add to that this coming weekend? Does tomorrow night's event of 2-4 reasonable? Nothing is a lock at this point, but I think you stand to do pretty well in Sullivan County. Your biggest obstacle to overcome will be warm mid-level temps which could result in more of an icy mix rather than snow, especially during the initial stages of the storm...but that will come down to the timing of the energy transfer between the primary low and the developing coastal storm. The earlier that transfer occurs, the less warm air will be able to sneak into the mid-levels this far north, and the more likely you will be predominantly snow. With a very strong easterly LLJ slamming into the Catskills, I do not think you will have issues with a lack of QPF. In spite of the concerns I outlined in my previous post, I do feel that this will be a sizeable precipitation event in your neck of the woods. And yes, there is a second storm suggested by the models next weekend...but let's get through storm #1 first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro KUCA WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.1 -2.9 1024 70 12 0.00 555 536 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.7 -3.6 1019 77 100 0.09 554 539 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.6 1010 86 100 0.54 549 541 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -5.3 1006 88 87 0.27 542 538 THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.7 -5.2 1005 90 99 0.05 541 536 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -5.2 -6.4 1010 92 79 0.08 541 533 KALB WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.5 -3.3 1025 45 5 0.00 557 537 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -4.7 1021 64 98 0.03 557 540 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.0 -6.0 1011 83 99 0.25 552 543 THU 12Z 27-DEC -0.4 -3.2 1004 90 50 0.55 545 541 THU 18Z 27-DEC 0.9 -2.5 1001 88 78 0.12 541 541 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -0.1 -4.8 1005 90 97 0.09 541 537 KBUF WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.7 -3.3 1020 67 88 0.01 552 536 THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.6 -3.6 1014 88 100 0.51 549 538 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.5 -6.7 1009 91 100 0.47 542 535 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.3 1008 93 96 0.22 540 533 THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.7 -9.0 1012 82 93 0.05 541 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro KUCA WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.1 -2.9 1024 70 12 0.00 555 536 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.7 -3.6 1019 77 100 0.09 554 539 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.6 1010 86 100 0.54 549 541 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -5.3 1006 88 87 0.27 542 538 THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.7 -5.2 1005 90 99 0.05 541 536 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -5.2 -6.4 1010 92 79 0.08 541 533 KALB WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.5 -3.3 1025 45 5 0.00 557 537 THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -4.7 1021 64 98 0.03 557 540 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.0 -6.0 1011 83 99 0.25 552 543 THU 12Z 27-DEC -0.4 -3.2 1004 90 50 0.55 545 541 THU 18Z 27-DEC 0.9 -2.5 1001 88 78 0.12 541 541 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -0.1 -4.8 1005 90 97 0.09 541 537 KBUF WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.7 -3.3 1020 67 88 0.01 552 536 THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.6 -3.6 1014 88 100 0.51 549 538 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.5 -6.7 1009 91 100 0.47 542 535 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.3 1008 93 96 0.22 540 533 THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.7 -9.0 1012 82 93 0.05 541 531 Thanks as always sir, model consensus is under way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 kalb WED NT-THU...00Z/24 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO NARROW DOWN THE POTENTIAL PATH AND EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH THE INITIAL SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WED AFTERNOON...BEFORE REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NATION/S CAPITAL. THIS NEW LOW CENTER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC THU MORNING...TO NEAR CAPE COD BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WARM NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BETWEEN 900-800 MB INTRUDING FOR AREAS NEAR...EAST AND SOUTH OF ALBANY...BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY ERODING THU AFTERNOON AS DYNAMIC COOLING INTENSIFIES AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SO...FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN VT...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET FROM LATE WED INTO THU. FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY REGION...THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...ALTHOUGH A BURST OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WED NT WHICH COULD LEAVE MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN THU MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW LATE THU. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN BY THU MORNING. IN THIS AREA...LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE. THESE IDEAS ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...WHICH IS THE COLDER/FARTHEST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THE 00Z/24 GEFS. THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z/24 GFS ACTUALLY IS AMONG THE WARMEST/FARTHEST NORTHWEST OF ITS MEMBERS...WITH THE GEFS MEAN PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GEFS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AS DENOTED BY THE 850 EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS OF 5-6 STD OVER OUR REGION. THU NT-FRI NT...WINDY AND COLD BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM. NUMEROUSSNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOWBANDS IMPACTING NORTHWEST AREAS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...EXCEPT TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 hpc http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_composite.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Amazing discussion from BUF this morning and very impressive. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS. QUICKLY TOUCHING ON THE PRE-STORM WEATHER…ALL WHO WERE WISHING FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS WILL WAKEN CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH LARGE SMILES ON THEIR FACES WHILE PEEKING OUT THE WINDOW TO SEE A FRESH INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SNOW FLAKES FLYING THROUGH THE AIR. AS SANTA MAKES HIS DEPARTURE CHRISTMAS MORNING SO TOO WILL THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE SNOWFALL. IT APPEARS THAT ALL SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A THIN LAYER OF LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW 1KFT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LINGERING STRATUS CLOUD DECK. AN UPSLOPE FLOW OF NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DESPITE THE COLUMN BEING BELOW FREEZING THE NEAR SATURATED LAYER WOULD BE WARMER THAN -10C LEAVING JUST SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS. MIDWEEK STORM… 00Z MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON CENTERING A LARGE WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE MUCH OF NEW YORK CONTINUES TO SEE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. A LOOK AT THE ST. LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS ANALOGS FOR 00Z MODELS SHOWS THE TOP 15 ANALOGS TO THE MODEL TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM YIELD BOTH A 500 MB AND MSLP PATTERN WHICH IS 2SD BELOW NORMAL. THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO A STORM THAT OCCURRED ON DEC 12 1992…WHEN A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN NY PICKED UP MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARD WV WITH A COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE DELMARVA. EXPECT SNOW TO ARRIVE TO THE SOUTHERN TIER BEFORE SUNSET WITH THE NORTH COUNTY SEEING SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS FOUND THROUGHOUT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH WINDS WHICH COULD GUST 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY SNOW AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS FROM NEAR NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND. OF THE 00Z MODELS THE ECMWF IS COLDEST AND FURTHEST SOUTHEAST WITH THE TRACK WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE WARMER AND 00Z NAM THE MOST WARM. IN FACT…WHILE AN OUTLIER…THE NAM SHOWS WITH ITS STORM TRACK THAT ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE COULD ADVECT ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY FOR SOME SLEET TO MIX. DUE TO THIS BEING THE OUTLYING SOLUTION AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHERN LEWIS WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMER AIR OF THE STORM THAN OTHER COUNTIES. THE GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCHEMES SHOW 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY WITH THE GFS GIVING ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES ON THURSDAY. A MEAN 72 HOUR SNOWFALL FROM THE CIPS SITE USING THE TOP 15 ANALOGS TO THE 00Z GFS SHOW 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH 10+ INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. IF THE STORM TRACK IS IN FACT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST OF HERE TO KEEP TEMPERATURE PROFILES BELOW FREEZING THEN THIS STORM COULD BRAKE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 26TH WITH THE CURRENT RECORDS IN BUFFALO BEING 10.7 INCHES SET IN 1956 AND 7.7 INCHES FOR ROCHESTER SET IN 1969.” NWS BUF MORNING AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow a high prob of 8"+ (> 70%) for all of WNY and between 40-70% chance for 12"+ for WNY. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_composite.gif Also NWS has heavy snow in the forecast in the point and click forecast for Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is beautiful. Although I'd love to see those numbers, they look exaggerated as the large amounts in OK are way overdone according to the NWS there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Although I'd love to see those numbers, they look exaggerated as the large amounts in OK are way overdone according to the NWS there... they are def way overdone just nice to see them. I could see half of those amounts verifying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 they are def way overdone just nice to see them. I could see half of those amounts verifying though. With that said though, I've rarely seen BUFs AFD so liberal with snow potential for a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, what a run the 12z NAM is for the overwhelming majority of Upstate NY. Big hit from BUF to the 'Dacks down to POU and just about everywhere in between, and the mid-level temps are projected to be significantly cooler than they were yesterday. This solution would produce widespread 10"+ totals over almost the entire state sans the lower Hudson Valley and NYC area. Discussion regarding tonight's little event has pretty much died for obvious reasons, but I have to say...folks in the ROC area could be pleasantly surprised when they wake up tomorrow AM. There are some signals that snowfall could be locally enhanced due to the northeasterly flow off Lake Ontario with marginally cold temps for lake enhancement. I think someone in or near ROC could pull off 3" tonight. The rest of us are probably looking at closer to an inch - nice mood snow for Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The secondary low starts to develop a little farther east of the 06z on the 12z GFs, over Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS looks colder and southeast, still .75 QPF all up the I87 corridor from NYC to Montreal, but any more southeast starts to take a big hit to the QPF. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Here in Liberty NY in Sullivan County Elevation 1,600 feet, went to bed with the promise of 2-4 inches tonight, now down to 1-2 with FR. ANy chance it can change back to to 2-4? Is that the most we can eek out 1-2 ? Does mid week look promising for my neck of the wood as in 6 + and as mainly snow? THis coming weekend still a possibility for a snow event? Happy holidays!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z NAM looks great for the entire area.. widespread 12"+ amounts. 12z GFS not as good for the entire area. QPF for North of Syracuse much less. Couple more model runs to go but agree that we do not want to see this shift anymore south and east for the best snows for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I wonder if the GFS is picking up on some downsloping for the Syracuse area. A few GFS model runs have hinted at a QPF min. somewhere in east-central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Great looking event for MOST.....but BEWARE....as the GFS runs have indicated, there will be an area that receives much less precip somewhere in Upstate...and I think such a dryslot will verify....most likely just west of the Catskills....(downslope aided) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm hoping it doesn't get pushed further SE. Seems the trend is in that direction. The 12z Euro will be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z Canadian gives most of Upstate a couple inches tonight/tomorrow morn.....then buries all of Upstate Wed. night/Thurs....then provides another significant threat over the weekend...and ends with a very favorable upstream pattern..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolymammoth Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Morning all, haven't posted in a while...6.5" o/n in no. Syracuse burb, storm total of 13"...solid CNY event. Still trying to snow here. NWS BGM under forecast last night's snowfall here but my location is the far no. fringe of Onon. county. XMas looks like 2-4" for all. 12/27 promising for CNY, 0Z Euro/GEM with an almost perfect track for BUF/SYR/BGM/ALB. Thermal profiles could cause some mixing somewhere in ENY and NE PA but too early to get overly granular. GFS would bring a mix to most of us, more of a front end dump then changeover & dry slotting. With a neutral or slightly positive NAO, an out to sea solution seems less likely unless the system just doesn't develop and skirts out as a flat wave. Since all NWP shows decent system development, seems most probable that a somewhat inland track or coastal hugger path will occur. The other intangible favoring a big hit for CNY is probability. I may be forgetting one, but the last genuine large scale synoptic system to jackpot CNY may have been Valentine's Day 2007. Frankly there haven't been many classic storms that roll up the eastern seaboard and thump the interior while the coastal plain receives mainly rain or mix at best. Most here are too young to remember but this sort of system was very common, actually the norm, in past decades. The past several years have been an aberration in what I'd call snowstorm climo - as evidenced by snow results in BGM and ALB, maybe even ROC/BUF. SYR gets by with lake effect. I lived on/near the I-95 corridor most of my life and I can tell you the past several years of big snowstorms favoring that area is a blessing that I hope they all have appreciated. Merry Christmas to all and particularly George and Ty. Go Giants. -Brian I grew up in the NYC area and watched winter storm after winter storm in the 60s and early-70s change from rain to snow. Breaking my little snow-loving heart. I have lived in BGM for 30+ years and enjoyed many a "lolipop" of snow from those same kind of storms. But you're right, Brian, the pattern has changed. We experience all kinds of pain in the behind mixing events or miss out entirely. I am hoping this is only a little "blip" in the pattern and not my future!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Pretty good model consensus has developed on a broad brush level. I wouldn't sweat the individual run-to-run qpf variations at 60-72 hrs out as these panels are among the most unreliable, though they are interesting. GFS qpf field looks blotchy on the NW side in general, wondering if its trying to depict banding features. Interesting that the higher res NAM shows a more "uniform" qpf distribution. We'll see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, what a run the 12z NAM is for the overwhelming majority of Upstate NY. Big hit from BUF to the 'Dacks down to POU and just about everywhere in between, and the mid-level temps are projected to be significantly cooler than they were yesterday. This solution would produce widespread 10"+ totals over almost the entire state sans the lower Hudson Valley and NYC area. Discussion regarding tonight's little event has pretty much died for obvious reasons, but I have to say...folks in the ROC area could be pleasantly surprised when they wake up tomorrow AM. There are some signals that snowfall could be locally enhanced due to the northeasterly flow off Lake Ontario with marginally cold temps for lake enhancement. I think someone in or near ROC could pull off 3" tonight. The rest of us are probably looking at closer to an inch - nice mood snow for Christmas Eve. Unfortunately, this looks to be a huge letdown for Toronto. I'm expecting only 2-4" at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS has the dry slot from hell THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.4 -3.8 1010 89 99 0.11 546 538 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.2 0.1 1005 85 94 0.06 542 538 THU 18Z 27-DEC 0.6 -3.6 1005 85 97 0.02 540 537 NAM THU 1A 27-DEC -4.2 -3.5 1015 92 100 0.09 552 540 THU 7A 27-DEC -3.9 -5.8 1009 94 97 0.82 546 539 THU 1P 27-DEC -2.6 -5.5 1005 93 98 0.17 543 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Anyone got an early read on the 12z Euro with respect to Western NY and the 26-27th storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 MIDWEEK STORM… 00Z MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON CENTERING A LARGE WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE MUCH OF NEW YORK CONTINUES TO SEE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. A LOOK AT THE ST. LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS ANALOGS FOR 00Z MODELS SHOWS THE TOP 15 ANALOGS TO THE MODEL TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM YIELD BOTH A 500 MB AND MSLP PATTERN WHICH IS 2SD BELOW NORMAL. THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO A STORM THAT OCCURRED ON DEC 12 1992…WHEN A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN NY PICKED UP MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF SNOW. Sure enough, the latest CIPS analogs have 12/11/92 showing up, where severe downsloping cut down on snowfall totals in the Hudson Valley. The low level winds do seem to be weaker with this storm though, with a lower central pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 euro at hr 72 http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=182575 I will have text soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 euro at hr 72 http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=182575 I will have text soon Awesome!! When you have ERI and JHW will you shoot em up? Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.