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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


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It's looking more and more like we could be in the sweet spot here in the elevated terrain west of the Capital District.

Last winter being such a joke, this would be the first good snowstorm since early March 2011.

Per NAM bufkit we get 0.73" QPF as snow from 3PM-11PM Wednesday followed by 0.30" as freezing rain from 11PM-1AM Thursday followed by another 0.26" as snow from 1AM-7AM Thursday. Mid-level temps are pretty lousy for the duration of the storm, so even when it's snowing I'm not anticipating very good ratios out of this...but it's a pretty solid event regardless.

Looks like a crushing snowstorm for the Catskills and especially the Adirondacks if you extrapolate beyond 84hrs. Anomalously strong easterly LLJ means those of you reading from the Hudson Valley may get downsloped to death, but this is a really good solution for the ski resorts in the eastern part of the state.

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How does it look for Liberty NY in Sullivan County? Is 6 inches a lock midweek? Is there an event to add to that this coming weekend? Does tomorrow night's event of 2-4 reasonable?

Nothing is a lock at this point, but I think you stand to do pretty well in Sullivan County. Your biggest obstacle to overcome will be warm mid-level temps which could result in more of an icy mix rather than snow, especially during the initial stages of the storm...but that will come down to the timing of the energy transfer between the primary low and the developing coastal storm. The earlier that transfer occurs, the less warm air will be able to sneak into the mid-levels this far north, and the more likely you will be predominantly snow.

With a very strong easterly LLJ slamming into the Catskills, I do not think you will have issues with a lack of QPF. In spite of the concerns I outlined in my previous post, I do feel that this will be a sizeable precipitation event in your neck of the woods.

And yes, there is a second storm suggested by the models next weekend...but let's get through storm #1 first ;)

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Euro

KUCA

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -3.1    -2.9    1024	  70	  12    0.00	 555	 536   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -3.7    -3.6    1019	  77	 100    0.09	 554	 539   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -3.6    -7.6    1010	  86	 100    0.54	 549	 541   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -2.7    -5.3    1006	  88	  87    0.27	 542	 538   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -1.7    -5.2    1005	  90	  99    0.05	 541	 536   
FRI 00Z 28-DEC  -5.2    -6.4    1010	  92	  79    0.08	 541	 533

KALB

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -0.5    -3.3    1025	  45	   5    0.00	 557	 537   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -1.8    -4.7    1021	  64	  98    0.03	 557	 540   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -2.0    -6.0    1011	  83	  99    0.25	 552	 543   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -0.4    -3.2    1004	  90	  50    0.55	 545	 541   
THU 18Z 27-DEC   0.9    -2.5    1001	  88	  78    0.12	 541	 541   
FRI 00Z 28-DEC  -0.1    -4.8    1005	  90	  97    0.09	 541	 537

KBUF

WED 18Z 26-DEC  -3.7    -3.3    1020	  67	  88    0.01	 552	 536   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -4.6    -3.6    1014	  88	 100    0.51	 549	 538   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -2.5    -6.7    1009	  91	 100    0.47	 542	 535   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -2.3    -8.3    1008	  93	  96    0.22	 540	 533   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -3.7    -9.0    1012	  82	  93    0.05	 541	 531

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KUCA

WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.1 -2.9 1024	 70	 12 0.00	 555	 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.7 -3.6 1019	 77	 100 0.09	 554	 539
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.6 -7.6 1010	 86	 100 0.54	 549	 541
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -5.3 1006	 88	 87 0.27	 542	 538
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.7 -5.2 1005	 90	 99 0.05	 541	 536
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -5.2 -6.4 1010	 92	 79 0.08	 541	 533

KALB

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.5 -3.3 1025	 45	 5 0.00	 557	 537
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -4.7 1021	 64	 98 0.03	 557	 540
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.0 -6.0 1011	 83	 99 0.25	 552	 543
THU 12Z 27-DEC -0.4 -3.2 1004	 90	 50 0.55	 545	 541
THU 18Z 27-DEC 0.9 -2.5 1001	 88	 78 0.12	 541	 541
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -0.1 -4.8 1005	 90	 97 0.09	 541	 537

KBUF

WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.7 -3.3 1020	 67	 88 0.01	 552	 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.6 -3.6 1014	 88	 100 0.51	 549	 538
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.5 -6.7 1009	 91	 100 0.47	 542	 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.3 1008	 93	 96 0.22	 540	 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.7 -9.0 1012	 82	 93 0.05	 541	 531

Thanks as always sir, model consensus is under way.

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kalb

WED NT-THU...00Z/24 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO NARROW

DOWN THE POTENTIAL PATH AND EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH THE

INITIAL SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST

REGION...INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WED AFTERNOON...BEFORE

REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST

NORTHEAST OF THE NATION/S CAPITAL. THIS NEW LOW CENTER IS THEN

EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NYC THU

MORNING...TO NEAR CAPE COD BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD BE

QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR AT

LEAST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. FORECAST

MODEL SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WARM NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS

BETWEEN 900-800 MB INTRUDING FOR AREAS NEAR...EAST AND SOUTH OF

ALBANY...BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY ERODING THU

AFTERNOON AS DYNAMIC COOLING INTENSIFIES AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER

PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SO...FOR AREAS NORTH AND

WEST OF ALBANY...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK

VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN VT...THE

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH

A PERIOD OF SLEET FROM LATE WED INTO THU. FROM THE SE

CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY REGION...THE GREATER CAPITAL

REGION...AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...ALTHOUGH A BURST OF SNOW

IS LIKELY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WED NT WHICH COULD LEAVE MODERATE

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX

WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN

THU MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW LATE THU. FURTHER SOUTH

AND EAST...ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND

LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT A PERIOD OF

SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN

BY THU MORNING. IN THIS AREA...LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCRETION IS

POSSIBLE. THESE IDEAS ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...WHICH

IS THE COLDER/FARTHEST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THE 00Z/24

GEFS. THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z/24 GFS ACTUALLY IS AMONG THE

WARMEST/FARTHEST NORTHWEST OF ITS MEMBERS...WITH THE GEFS MEAN

PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GEFS ALSO

INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AS DENOTED BY THE

850 EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS OF 5-6 STD OVER OUR REGION.

THU NT-FRI NT...WINDY AND COLD BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM. NUMEROUS

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE

ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOWBANDS IMPACTING NORTHWEST AREAS. EXPECT MAX

TEMPS TO REACH THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...EXCEPT TEENS ACROSS HIGHER

ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND

TEENS.

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Amazing discussion from BUF this morning and very impressive.

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST REGION WEDNESDAY

AND THURSDAY WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY

WINDS.

QUICKLY TOUCHING ON THE PRE-STORM WEATHER…ALL WHO WERE WISHING FOR

A WHITE CHRISTMAS WILL WAKEN CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH LARGE SMILES ON

THEIR FACES WHILE PEEKING OUT THE WINDOW TO SEE A FRESH INCH OF

SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SNOW FLAKES FLYING THROUGH THE AIR. AS SANTA

MAKES HIS DEPARTURE CHRISTMAS MORNING SO TOO WILL THE LOW PRESSURE THAT

BROUGHT THE SNOWFALL. IT APPEARS THAT ALL SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER

OFF BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS

ACROSS NEW YORK. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A THIN LAYER OF LINGERING

MOISTURE BELOW 1KFT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LINGERING STRATUS CLOUD

DECK. AN UPSLOPE FLOW OF NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF

LAKE ONTARIO COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING

DRIZZLE DESPITE THE COLUMN BEING BELOW FREEZING THE NEAR SATURATED

LAYER WOULD BE WARMER THAN -10C LEAVING JUST SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS.

MIDWEEK STORM…

00Z MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON CENTERING A LARGE WINTER STORM

SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE MUCH OF NEW

YORK CONTINUES TO SEE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE

RIDGING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. A LOOK AT THE ST. LOUIS

UNIVERSITY CIPS ANALOGS FOR 00Z MODELS SHOWS THE TOP 15 ANALOGS TO

THE MODEL TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM YIELD BOTH A 500 MB AND MSLP

PATTERN WHICH IS 2SD BELOW NORMAL. THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM IS VERY

SIMILAR TO A STORM THAT OCCURRED ON DEC 12 1992…WHEN A LARGE

PORTION OF WESTERN NY PICKED UP MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE LOW

LIFTS TOWARD WV WITH A COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE

OFF THE DELMARVA. EXPECT SNOW TO ARRIVE TO THE SOUTHERN TIER BEFORE

SUNSET WITH THE NORTH COUNTY SEEING SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE

00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL

COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT AND PLENTIFUL

MOISTURE IS FOUND THROUGHOUT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THE

COMBINATION OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH WINDS WHICH

COULD GUST 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS

ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY SNOW AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS FROM NEAR NEW JERSEY TO NEW

ENGLAND. OF THE 00Z MODELS THE ECMWF IS COLDEST AND FURTHEST

SOUTHEAST WITH THE TRACK WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE WARMER AND 00Z

NAM THE MOST WARM. IN FACT…WHILE AN OUTLIER…THE NAM SHOWS WITH

ITS STORM TRACK THAT ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE COULD ADVECT ACROSS THE

INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY FOR SOME SLEET TO MIX. DUE TO

THIS BEING THE OUTLYING SOLUTION AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF

THE FORECAST EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHERN LEWIS WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO

THE WARMER AIR OF THE STORM THAN OTHER COUNTIES.

THE GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCHEMES SHOW 12 TO 18

INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN

AND NORTH CENTRAL NY WITH THE GFS GIVING ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES ON

THURSDAY. A MEAN 72 HOUR SNOWFALL FROM THE CIPS SITE USING THE TOP

15 ANALOGS TO THE 00Z GFS SHOW 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN TIER WITH 10+ INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE

ONTARIO REGION. IF THE STORM TRACK IS IN FACT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST

OF HERE TO KEEP TEMPERATURE PROFILES BELOW FREEZING THEN THIS STORM

COULD BRAKE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 26TH WITH THE

CURRENT RECORDS IN BUFFALO BEING 10.7 INCHES SET IN 1956 AND 7.7

INCHES FOR ROCHESTER SET IN 1969.” NWS BUF MORNING AFD

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Wow, what a run the 12z NAM is for the overwhelming majority of Upstate NY. Big hit from BUF to the 'Dacks down to POU and just about everywhere in between, and the mid-level temps are projected to be significantly cooler than they were yesterday. This solution would produce widespread 10"+ totals over almost the entire state sans the lower Hudson Valley and NYC area.

Discussion regarding tonight's little event has pretty much died for obvious reasons, but I have to say...folks in the ROC area could be pleasantly surprised when they wake up tomorrow AM. There are some signals that snowfall could be locally enhanced due to the northeasterly flow off Lake Ontario with marginally cold temps for lake enhancement. I think someone in or near ROC could pull off 3" tonight. The rest of us are probably looking at closer to an inch - nice mood snow for Christmas Eve.

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Here in Liberty NY in Sullivan County Elevation 1,600 feet, went to bed with the promise of 2-4 inches tonight, now down to 1-2 with FR. ANy chance it can change back to to 2-4?

Is that the most we can eek out 1-2 ?

Does mid week look promising for my neck of the wood as in 6 + and as mainly snow?

THis coming weekend still a possibility for a snow event?

Happy holidays!!!

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12z NAM looks great for the entire area.. widespread 12"+ amounts. 12z GFS not as good for the entire area. QPF for North of Syracuse much less. Couple more model runs to go but agree that we do not want to see this shift anymore south and east for the best snows for everyone.

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Morning all, haven't posted in a while...6.5" o/n in no. Syracuse burb, storm total of 13"...solid CNY event. Still trying to snow here. NWS BGM under forecast last night's snowfall here but my location is the far no. fringe of Onon. county.

XMas looks like 2-4" for all.

12/27 promising for CNY, 0Z Euro/GEM with an almost perfect track for BUF/SYR/BGM/ALB.

Thermal profiles could cause some mixing somewhere in ENY and NE PA but too early to get overly granular. GFS would bring a mix to most of us, more of a front end dump then changeover & dry slotting. With a neutral or slightly positive NAO, an out to sea solution seems less likely unless the system just doesn't develop and skirts out as a flat wave. Since all NWP shows decent system development, seems most probable that a somewhat inland track or coastal hugger path will occur.

The other intangible favoring a big hit for CNY is probability. I may be forgetting one, but the last genuine large scale synoptic system to jackpot CNY may have been Valentine's Day 2007. Frankly there haven't been many classic storms that roll up the eastern seaboard and thump the interior while the coastal plain receives mainly rain or mix at best. Most here are too young to remember but this sort of system was very common, actually the norm, in past decades. The past several years have been an aberration in what I'd call snowstorm climo - as evidenced by snow results in BGM and ALB, maybe even ROC/BUF. SYR gets by with lake effect. I lived on/near the I-95 corridor most of my life and I can tell you the past several years of big snowstorms favoring that area is a blessing that I hope they all have appreciated.

Merry Christmas to all and particularly George and Ty.

Go Giants.

-Brian

I grew up in the NYC area and watched winter storm after winter storm in the 60s and early-70s change from rain to snow. Breaking my little snow-loving heart. I have lived in BGM for 30+ years and enjoyed many a "lolipop" of snow from those same kind of storms. But you're right, Brian, the pattern has changed. We experience all kinds of pain in the behind mixing events or miss out entirely. I am hoping this is only a little "blip" in the pattern and not my future!!!

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Pretty good model consensus has developed on a broad brush level. I wouldn't sweat the individual run-to-run qpf variations at 60-72 hrs out as these panels are among the most unreliable, though they are interesting. GFS qpf field looks blotchy on the NW side in general, wondering if its trying to depict banding features. Interesting that the higher res NAM shows a more "uniform" qpf distribution. We'll see how this plays out.

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Wow, what a run the 12z NAM is for the overwhelming majority of Upstate NY. Big hit from BUF to the 'Dacks down to POU and just about everywhere in between, and the mid-level temps are projected to be significantly cooler than they were yesterday. This solution would produce widespread 10"+ totals over almost the entire state sans the lower Hudson Valley and NYC area.

Discussion regarding tonight's little event has pretty much died for obvious reasons, but I have to say...folks in the ROC area could be pleasantly surprised when they wake up tomorrow AM. There are some signals that snowfall could be locally enhanced due to the northeasterly flow off Lake Ontario with marginally cold temps for lake enhancement. I think someone in or near ROC could pull off 3" tonight. The rest of us are probably looking at closer to an inch - nice mood snow for Christmas Eve.

Unfortunately, this looks to be a huge letdown for Toronto. I'm expecting only 2-4" at most.

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GFS has the dry slot from hell

THU 06Z 27-DEC  -3.4    -3.8    1010	  89	  99    0.11	 546	 538   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -2.2	 0.1    1005	  85	  94    0.06	 542	 538   
THU 18Z 27-DEC   0.6    -3.6    1005	  85	  97    0.02	 540	 537

NAM

THU 1A 27-DEC -4.2 -3.5 1015	 92	 100 0.09	 552	 540
THU 7A 27-DEC -3.9 -5.8 1009	 94	 97 0.82	 546	 539
THU 1P 27-DEC -2.6 -5.5 1005	 93	 98 0.17	 543	 539

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MIDWEEK STORM…

00Z MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON CENTERING A LARGE WINTER STORM

SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE MUCH OF NEW

YORK CONTINUES TO SEE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE

RIDGING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. A LOOK AT THE ST. LOUIS

UNIVERSITY CIPS ANALOGS FOR 00Z MODELS SHOWS THE TOP 15 ANALOGS TO

THE MODEL TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM YIELD BOTH A 500 MB AND MSLP

PATTERN WHICH IS 2SD BELOW NORMAL. THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM IS VERY

SIMILAR TO A STORM THAT OCCURRED ON DEC 12 1992…WHEN A LARGE

PORTION OF WESTERN NY PICKED UP MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

Sure enough, the latest CIPS analogs have 12/11/92 showing up, where severe downsloping cut down on snowfall totals in the Hudson Valley. The low level winds do seem to be weaker with this storm though, with a lower central pressure.

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