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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December

Alpha5

By Alpha5,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

JHW

WED 12Z 26-DEC  -5.4    -1.7    1022	  85	  57    0.00	 553	 537   
WED 18Z 26-DEC  -2.5    -3.3    1014	  88	 100    0.24	 550	 539   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -1.6    -4.0    1006	  86	  98    0.49	 544	 539   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -2.3    -4.6    1003	  92	  98    0.11	 538	 536   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -3.7    -9.0    1008	  93	  95    0.07	 538	 532   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -4.2   -10.8    1013	  81	  69    0.04	 541	 531

KERI

WED 12Z 26-DEC  -3.4    -1.5    1020	  82	  67    0.00	 553	 537   
WED 18Z 26-DEC  -1.1    -3.0    1012	  88	  99    0.31	 549	 539   
THU 00Z 27-DEC  -0.1    -5.1    1005	  90	  98    0.43	 542	 538   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -0.8    -5.6    1004	  90	  94    0.17	 538	 535   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -3.2    -8.9    1010	  88	  97    0.07	 539	 531   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -2.1    -9.4    1015	  79	  63    0.03	 543	 531

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schinz

schinz

Posted
Posted

JHW

WED 12Z 26-DEC -5.4 -1.7 1022	 85	 57 0.00	 553	 537
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.5 -3.3 1014	 88	 100 0.24	 550	 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -4.0 1006	 86	 98 0.49	 544	 539
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.3 -4.6 1003	 92	 98 0.11	 538	 536
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -9.0 1008	 93	 95 0.07	 538	 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.2 -10.8 1013	 81	 69 0.04	 541	 531

KERI

WED 12Z 26-DEC -3.4 -1.5 1020	 82	 67 0.00	 553	 537
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.1 -3.0 1012	 88	 99 0.31	 549	 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.1 -5.1 1005	 90	 98 0.43	 542	 538
THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.8 -5.6 1004	 90	 94 0.17	 538	 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.2 -8.9 1010	 88	 97 0.07	 539	 531
THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.1 -9.4 1015	 79	 63 0.03	 543	 531

Thanks!!! Where do you get these? Is it possible for me to get them without bothering you for them?? There seems to be a lot of uniformity across Western NY. Does anyone see any good impulses capable of producing decent lake effect SE of Erie after the 26-27 storm?

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Thanks!!! Where do you get these? Is it possible for me to get them without bothering you for them?? There seems to be a lot of uniformity across Western NY. Does anyone see any good impulses capable of producing decent lake effect SE of Erie after the 26-27 storm?

I get them from accuweather pro, which cost 24 dollars a month(or 250 a yr).(30 day free trial is nice though)..

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

NAM catching on

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F23%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

The 18z NAM may not be a bad depiction of how this is going to unfold, as it is a pretty close match to the 12z ECMWF in terms of the primary synoptic scale features that will govern this event:

post-619-0-20224700-1356297172_thumb.png

In addition, the operational ECMWF does seem to match up with the 12z ensemble mean which just updated on Allan Huffman's website:

post-619-0-26377100-1356297292_thumb.gif

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Paweatherguy1

Paweatherguy1

Posted
Posted

The 18z NAM may not be a bad depiction of how this is going to unfold, as it is a pretty close match to the 12z ECMWF in terms of the primary synoptic scale features that will govern this event:

post-619-0-20224700-1356297172_thumb.png

In addition, the operational ECMWF does seem to match up with the 12z ensemble mean which just updated on Allan Huffman's website:

post-619-0-26377100-1356297292_thumb.gif

Been trying to figure this out, and hoping a red tagger can answer. Does the transfer from the primary to the secondary make sense on the NAM?

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Been trying to figure this out, and hoping a red tagger can answer. Does the transfer from the primary to the secondary make sense on the NAM?

That's the question of the hour, as the timing of that transfer will ultimately determine how far north the warm mid-level temps (>0C) can make it into PA/NY. The earlier the transfer, the colder those mid-level temps are likely to be in our neck of the woods, and the less mixing there is likely to be.

Last night I was skeptical of the idea of mixing all the way back into western NY and PA given some of the analog events that were being depicted on the CIPS product...but today I'm less certain. We may very well have to go through a period of mixed precip before the secondary low takes over and mid-level temps are able to cool. Lots of details to be ironed out in the next couple of days.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

KALB

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING UP OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE

CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG

THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA TAKE BECOME THE

PRIMARY LOW...AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND LIFTS UP ALONG THE COAST FOR

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK OF

THE STORM...WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS

BOTH ALOFT AND THE SURFACE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH

HAS AGREEMENT FROM IT/S ENSEMBLES AS WELL...SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE

EASTERN AND COLDER TRACK THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS SOME

SPREAD...WITH SOME MEMBERS BEING A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE

OPERATIONAL GFS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE

OPERATIONAL /PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN THE

OPERATIONAL RUN BY THURSDAY/. THE 12Z GGEM AND UKMET ARE SIMILAR TO

THE ECMWF AS WELL

FOR NOW...OUR THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL BE BREAKING OUT ACROSS OUR

ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND

PERHAPS EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR BY THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS

FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH SLEET REACHING THE CAPITAL REGION BY

ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO. A CHANGE OVER TO SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET

WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL TOO FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL

REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. A TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN

IS POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IT/S

STILL TOUGH TO SAY IF A TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN WILL OCCUR UP TO

THE CAPITAL REGION. FURTHER NORTH...IT LOOKS MAINLY SNOW FOR THE

MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME

MIXING WITH SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS THE

END OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIP SHOULD START TO TRANSITION BACK

TO SNOW FOR THE TAIL END OF THE STORM FOR DURING THE DAY

THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA

COULD END AS JUST A PLAIN RAIN IF THE SFC TEMPS RISE UP ENOUGH.

QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION AS WELL...BUT ALL MODELS ARE

SHOWING AT LEAST A MODERATE AMOUNT OF PRECIP. MODEL QPF VALUES RANGE

FROM AROUND 0.70 INCHES TO 1.50 INCHES...DEPENDING OF WHERE YOU ARE

AND WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER. SINCE THE DEGREE OF MIXING IS STILL

UNKNOWN...IT/S DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.

HOWEVER...WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE...A

PLOWABLE SNOW IS LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS...AND WE WILL INCLUDE MENTION

OF THIS EVENT WITHIN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK STATEMENT.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

000

NOUS41 KBUF 231734

PNSBUF

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-240534-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

1234 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012

THE FOLLOWING ARE SNOWFALL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN FROM THE LAKE EFFECT

EVENT THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THANKS

TO ALL THAT HAVE PROVIDED REPORTS.

**********************12 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 12 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...

MANNSVILLE 1.0 1130 AM 12/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

...OSWEGO COUNTY...

OSWEGO 6.0 1105 AM 12/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

MEXICO 5.8 715 AM 12/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

2 E OSWEGO 4.9 1020 AM 12/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

MINETTO 3.5 1005 AM 12/23 TRAINED SPOTTER

$$

AR

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

00z NAM is a bit further east with the low and colder for WNY and looks to keep the precip as primarily snow, and lots of it. 1.3″ liquid equivalent and that’s only through 84 hours; with more obviously coming after 84 hours, albeit lighter.

Thats nice.

Going to the Catskills to hopefully do some skiing at the end of the week.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

00z NAM is a bit further east with the low and colder for WNY and looks to keep the precip as primarily snow, and lots of it. 1.3″ liquid equivalent and that’s only through 84 hours; with more obviously coming after 84 hours, albeit lighter.

Per NAM bufkit we get 0.73" QPF as snow from 3PM-11PM Wednesday followed by 0.30" as freezing rain from 11PM-1AM Thursday followed by another 0.26" as snow from 1AM-7AM Thursday. Mid-level temps are pretty lousy for the duration of the storm, so even when it's snowing I'm not anticipating very good ratios out of this...but it's a pretty solid event regardless.

Looks like a crushing snowstorm for the Catskills and especially the Adirondacks if you extrapolate beyond 84hrs. Anomalously strong easterly LLJ means those of you reading from the Hudson Valley may get downsloped to death, but this is a really good solution for the ski resorts in the eastern part of the state.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Per NAM bufkit we get 0.73" QPF as snow from 3PM-11PM Wednesday followed by 0.30" as freezing rain from 11PM-1AM Thursday followed by another 0.26" as snow from 1AM-7AM Thursday. Mid-level temps are pretty lousy for the duration of the storm, so even when it's snowing I'm not anticipating very good ratios out of this...but it's a pretty solid event regardless.

Looks like a crushing snowstorm for the Catskills and especially the Adirondacks if you extrapolate beyond 84hrs. Anomalously strong easterly LLJ means those of you reading from the Hudson Valley may get downsloped to death, but this is a really good solution for the ski resorts in the eastern part of the state.

so verbatim a 6" front end dump followed by almost 1/3" of freezing rain than another 2" of snow? Doesn't sound too bad to me lol. What do you think of the GFS Justin?
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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted

Looks like a crushing snowstorm for the Catskills and especially the Adirondacks if you extrapolate beyond 84hrs. Anomalously strong easterly LLJ means those of you reading from the Hudson Valley may get downsloped to death, but this is a really good solution for the ski resorts in the eastern part of the state.

That's definitely a concern for me, although ageostrophic northerly surface flow/CAD in the Hudson Valley may limit downsloping, especially west of The Hudson River.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

One of the things that makes me nervous about buying into the big QPF being generated by the models is the anticipated development of convection near the surface warm front over the Carolinas on Wednesday. When convection develops, the large latent heat release associated with that convection will often result in the formation of a diabatic potential vorticity (PV) anomaly in the mid-troposphere, typically around 700mb. This PV anomaly enhances southerly flow at mid-levels, which allows more moisture to be transported northward and lifted into the cold air in our neck of the woods.

If convection fails to develop as modeled, the mid-tropospheric PV anomaly will end up being weaker, and it may be more difficult to get widespread 1"+ QPF values here in Upstate NY. That would obviously result in less significant snowfall totals up this way...possibly by a considerable margin. We really do need the forecast for convection in the Carolinas to pan out.

This is not an easy forecast, and there are many complicating factors to consider. As a result, I would be very hesitant to pull the trigger on big snowfall amounts just yet. IMO we won't really have a clear idea on how this is going to evolve for another day or two, and even then there will be certain aspects of the storm that are going to come down to nowcasting. It'll be interesting to see how this all pans out in the end.

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