steffen Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Snowing harder now here then it was during the "Winter Storm Warning", if this keeps up overnight, we may end up with a few inches out of this. Roads already covered. I'm a bit surprised too. Has been snowing moderately here at Delaware Park for a couple of hours I think. Probably already an inch down. Definitely much more than the few flurries they forecast for tonight :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Snowing nicely here in Orchard Park too, and the radar looks pretty good just to our west. Flakes are tiny, but it's definitely accumulating. I know it hasn't seemed like it recently, but you guys are so lucky to live near the lakes. It's so freakin easy to get a "surprise" inch or two out of basically nothing. Somebody must've sneezed on the other side of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Snowing nicely here in Orchard Park too, and the radar looks pretty good just to our west. Flakes are tiny, but it's definitely accumulating. I know it hasn't seemed like it recently, but you guys are so lucky to live near the lakes. It's so freakin easy to get a "surprise" inch or two out of basically nothing. Somebody must've sneezed on the other side of the lake. Yeah, I totally agree. We are so spoiled here its not even funny. I see people on the New England board becoming so impatient waiting for it to snow. They are so dependant on a synoptic snowstorm to hit, they have no other sources of snowfall. Sometimes we get surprise events that are huge in lake effect storms. I remember a few times NWS predicting nothing and getting 6+ inches. Lake effect snow forecasting is such a delicate process. But these dime and dink snowfalls definitely contribute to the total snowfall this region receives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The New England board has been a very ugly place this season; I can only imagine how bad it's going to be if yet another storm produces rain in Boston. My personal expectation for the Wednesday/Thursday storm is for a big interior New Egland and adjacent eastern New York event, in spite of what the 00z gfs op is currently showing. I think Boston and a lot of eastern MA may be screwed once again. A lot of people over here will be happy though, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The New England board has been a very ugly place this season; I can only imagine how bad it's going to be if yet another storm produces rain in Boston. My personal expectation for the Wednesday/Thursday storm is for a big interior New Egland and adjacent eastern New York event, in spite of what the 00z gfs op is currently showing. I think Boston and a lot of eastern MA may be screwed once again. A lot of people over here will be happy though, IMO. Yeah its brutal over there. I am feeling good about this week in terms of synoptic snow for this area. I think that storm has a high likelihood to give us a decent bout ot snow. Going to be a few more days for details into who gets what and when though. Always fun to track and follow these storms though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro was a nice hit KALB THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.8 -4.8 1021 60 97 0.06 556 539 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.3 1012 86 100 0.44 551 541 THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.9 -4.4 1005 88 69 0.40 543 540 THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.4 -3.5 1001 86 98 0.11 539 539 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -1.6 -5.2 1006 87 95 0.11 539 535 kuca THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.3 -3.2 1018 74 97 0.07 554 539 THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.4 -6.9 1010 84 99 0.59 548 539 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.6 -6.2 1006 86 92 0.11 542 537 THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.8 -6.3 1006 87 98 0.07 539 535 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -7.1 -7.3 1012 89 76 0.07 540 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Presently surprised when I looked out the window this AM to see all the grass covered. Prob picked up an inch or so but combining the snow a couple days ago and this isenough to hide the grass completely for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 6.5" out of this last storm somehow. Hoping for some more this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 3.2" here. More fell overnight than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like about 4" in Lake Placid with more on the way! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 6.5" out of this last storm somehow. Hoping for some more this week. Same here, a little north of you. Have to say this LE event outperformed for us. Lots of compression on the grass and in the woods from the warm wet ground but this is a nice base to put more snow on top of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Picked up about 3" here in Southern Oswego County overnight, was a nice surprise to wake up to. May have to take the snowmobile out to get a couple laps around the yard haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It looks like there are two factors giving the Euro a more eastward track of the 850 mb low than the GFS. The first is the fact that the Euro brings the southern stream shortwave and vorticity max farther south than the GFS. This makes the phasing of the southern stream with the upper low to the north and associated northern stream energy less pronounced. The result of this is that the Euro has a less negatively tilted trough at 500 mb with the vorticity advection being more towards the east than the GFS. That promotes QG lift and causes the 850 mb low to track more towards the east over NJ. The GFS produces the best lift from dCVA (differential cyclonic vorticity advection) more towards the north causing the low to track more northward into CNY. The other factor causing the Euro to track the low farther east is the greater cold air damming along the Appalachians. The Euro is somewhat colder than the GFS at 06z Wednesday with slightly lower thicknesses over the northeast, possibly due to better confluence at 500 mb or perhaps the slower timing of the Euro. The stronger CAD on the Euro results in weaker warm air advection to the north of the 850 mb low and stronger warm air advection to the east of the low over the Delmarva. This causes greater QG lift to the east of the 850 mb than to the north of the low, resulting in a more eastward track. The strong warm advection north of the 850 mb low on the GFS generates lift to the north of the low and thus a more northward track. I think the positions of the 500 mb southern stream energy by the Euro and GFS are probably equally likely to occur. We won't know which solution is more likely until we get closer in time. However, I think the Euro may have a better handle on the CAD because of its higher resolution than the GFS. That would seem to favor a slightly more eastward track than what the GFS is predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Morning all, haven't posted in a while...6.5" o/n in no. Syracuse burb, storm total of 13"...solid CNY event. Still trying to snow here. NWS BGM under forecast last night's snowfall here but my location is the far no. fringe of Onon. county. XMas looks like 2-4" for all. 12/27 promising for CNY, 0Z Euro/GEM with an almost perfect track for BUF/SYR/BGM/ALB. Thermal profiles could cause some mixing somewhere in ENY and NE PA but too early to get overly granular. GFS would bring a mix to most of us, more of a front end dump then changeover & dry slotting. With a neutral or slightly positive NAO, an out to sea solution seems less likely unless the system just doesn't develop and skirts out as a flat wave. Since all NWP shows decent system development, seems most probable that a somewhat inland track or coastal hugger path will occur. The other intangible favoring a big hit for CNY is probability. I may be forgetting one, but the last genuine large scale synoptic system to jackpot CNY may have been Valentine's Day 2007. Frankly there haven't been many classic storms that roll up the eastern seaboard and thump the interior while the coastal plain receives mainly rain or mix at best. Most here are too young to remember but this sort of system was very common, actually the norm, in past decades. The past several years have been an aberration in what I'd call snowstorm climo - as evidenced by snow results in BGM and ALB, maybe even ROC/BUF. SYR gets by with lake effect. I lived on/near the I-95 corridor most of my life and I can tell you the past several years of big snowstorms favoring that area is a blessing that I hope they all have appreciated. Merry Christmas to all and particularly George and Ty. Go Giants. -Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Morning all, haven't posted in a while...6.5" o/n in no. Syracuse burb, storm total of 13"...solid CNY event. Still trying to snow here. NWS BGM under forecast last night's snowfall here but my location is the far no. fringe of Onon. county. XMas looks like 2-4" for all. 12/27 promising for CNY, 0Z Euro/GEM with an almost perfect track for BUF/SYR/BGM/ALB. Thermal profiles could cause some mixing somewhere in ENY and NE PA but too early to get overly granular. GFS would bring a mix to most of us, more of a front end dump then changeover & dry slotting. With a neutral or slightly positive NAO, an out to sea solution seems less likely unless the system just doesn't develop and skirts out as a flat wave. Since all NWP shows decent system development, seems most probable that a somewhat inland track or coastal hugger path will occur. The other intangible favoring a big hit for CNY is probability. I may be forgetting one, but the last genuine large scale synoptic system to jackpot CNY may have been Valentine's Day 2007. Frankly there haven't been many classic storms that roll up the eastern seaboard and thump the interior while the coastal plain receives mainly rain or mix at best. Most here are too young to remember but this sort of system was very common, actually the norm, in past decades. The past several years have been an aberration in what I'd call snowstorm climo - as evidenced by snow results in BGM and ALB, maybe even ROC/BUF. SYR gets by with lake effect. I lived on/near the I-95 corridor most of my life and I can tell you the past several years of big snowstorms favoring that area is a blessing that I hope they all have appreciated. Merry Christmas to all and particularly George and Ty. Go Giants. -Brian Hey Bri!!!! I came in with 14" total since Friday night. (about 10" on the ground, so quite a "wet" LES, with much less settling than usual) Christmas snow will be nice!!! Just enough to freshen up our landscape!! Been too long in coming! Next week's storm (actually, this upcoming week's) just looks a bit "off", particularly at h500 (never liked bowling ball transitions, models seem to overdue transfer speed). So I'm still hesitant on (CNY at least) taking a pretty warm solution off the table for this Wed. nt./Thurs. period. Good to see a post from you. Hopefully the weather will cooperate to see more posts from you this winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Upcoming Winter Storm Model Outlook: GFS Ensembles Euro Ensembles GEM NAM Quite a bit of model consensus agreement in the storm track, with the outlier being the NAM currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 HPC Clusters: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 buffaloweather that hpc track is just about perfect for us in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 buffaloweather that hpc track is just about perfect for us in WNY. Well that first track is just the storm tomorrow night which won't be much more then 1-3 inches. The second track is the one that truly matters as that is the large storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GEM is a huge hit precip wise for a large portion of central and western NY. Not sure on temps though. Picked up a total of 14" in Phoenix with 6" of that last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 EURO is out to 96hrs. Looks like a huge hit for CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Big hit for utica WED 18Z 26-DEC -3.2 -1.9 1021 65 61 0.00 555 538 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.9 -3.4 1015 84 100 0.30 552 540 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.8 -5.4 1004 88 100 0.64 546 542 THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.7 -4.0 1000 93 100 0.23 539 538 THU 18Z 27-DEC -3.3 -6.4 1003 90 84 0.12 537 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GEM is a huge hit precip wise for a large portion of central and western NY. Not sure on temps though. Picked up a total of 14" in Phoenix with 6" of that last night. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2012122312/I_nw_g1_EST_2012122312_086.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 KALB WED 12Z 26-DEC -5.9 -3.0 1028 53 6 0.00 557 536 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.0 -2.3 1023 47 51 0.00 557 538 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.4 -3.9 1018 82 100 0.24 555 541 THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.8 -4.5 1005 89 97 0.44 549 545 THU 12Z 27-DEC 1.0 0.0 997 92 40 0.59 540 542 KSYR WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.7 -2.5 1021 70 78 0.00 554 538 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.8 -1.9 1014 85 100 0.41 551 540 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.9 -5.5 1004 88 100 0.65 543 540 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.0 -4.7 1002 94 99 0.26 538 537 THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.7 -8.8 1006 86 88 0.07 538 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Euro looks like a good 6" or so before a change to rain during the day Thursday for Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 KALB WED 12Z 26-DEC -5.9 -3.0 1028 53 6 0.00 557 536 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.0 -2.3 1023 47 51 0.00 557 538 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.4 -3.9 1018 82 100 0.24 555 541 THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.8 -4.5 1005 89 97 0.44 549 545 THU 12Z 27-DEC 1.0 0.0 997 92 40 0.59 540 542 KSYR WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.7 -2.5 1021 70 78 0.00 554 538 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.8 -1.9 1014 85 100 0.41 551 540 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.9 -5.5 1004 88 100 0.65 543 540 THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.0 -4.7 1002 94 99 0.26 538 537 THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.7 -8.8 1006 86 88 0.07 538 533 Can you put in SLK? Appreciate it! Thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro says some is good but more is better For the 30th SAT 18Z 29-DEC -3.8 -4.4 1016 71 95 0.00 548 535 SUN 00Z 30-DEC -4.5 -4.4 1009 86 100 0.22 545 538 SUN 06Z 30-DEC -4.0 -3.3 998 91 100 0.50 536 537 SUN 12Z 30-DEC -5.5 -7.5 998 91 98 0.27 527 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 slk THU 00Z 27-DEC -6.8 -3.6 1021 70 92 0.02 553 537 THU 06Z 27-DEC -6.3 -6.3 1011 89 98 0.58 549 541 THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.7 -6.0 1004 91 84 0.44 541 538 THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.3 -4.9 1002 92 97 0.10 537 536 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -7.3 -9.4 1007 93 95 0.09 536 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 slk THU 00Z 27-DEC -6.8 -3.6 1021 70 92 0.02 553 537 THU 06Z 27-DEC -6.3 -6.3 1011 89 98 0.58 549 541 THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.7 -6.0 1004 91 84 0.44 541 538 THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.3 -4.9 1002 92 97 0.10 537 536 FRI 00Z 28-DEC -7.3 -9.4 1007 93 95 0.09 536 531 NICE! The weather gods knew that I was heading for Whiteface, and a foot of snow makes that place so much more fun! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NICE! The weather gods knew that I was heading for Whiteface, and a foot of snow makes that place so much more fun! -skisheep I'll be in lake placid with my gf wed-fri. Loving this euro run. Looks like 12-18" w/ temps 18-22. Perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.