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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December


Alpha5

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Certaintly hasn't been a banner start to winter for most of us up to this point. I know it's early, but I can't help look at the long range progs and start to wonder when we'll break the seasonal 10" mark in BUF. I've heard all the talk about how the setup is so much different than last winter, but here we are again looking potentially deep into December with no days of any meaningful snow cover and less than 3 inches so far on the season.

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Certaintly hasn't been a banner start to winter for most of us up to this point. I know it's early, but I can't help look at the long range progs and start to wonder when we'll break the seasonal 10" mark in BUF. I've heard all the talk about how the setup is so much different than last winter, but here we are again looking potentially deep into December with no days of any meaningful snow cover and less than 3 inches so far on the season. On the positive side, I was able to run the mower today to clear out some leaves and played a few holes of golf earlier this week - kind of crazy for December...

yes for hearing how different this years pattern is than last years itsure seems like its shaping up the same way. Im really thinking we will have a smaller total this year than we had last year come christmas time which is a shame. Starting to think a 50" winter would be pretty good at this point :/
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yes for hearing how different this years pattern is than last years itsure seems like its shaping up the same way. Im really thinking we will have a smaller total this year than we had last year come christmas time which is a shame. Starting to think a 50" winter would be pretty good at this point :/

Of course it's still early and all it takes in these parts is a rocking few week period to pile up our snow totals, whether that comes in Dec or Mar...but the Ghosts of Winter 2011/12 are definitely in my head making me think bad thoughts...

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The pattern looks like it will get more interesting as we head into the beginning of next week, with the MJO forecast by most of the global ensembles to enter phase 1. This should lead to a stronger subtropical jet and also allow for blocking to occur, especially if the MJO gets to a decent amplitude in phase 2. This is predicted by some of the ensembles as well, though the amplitude may not be as strong.

mjo_psi_comps.gif

As you can see in the MJO composites above, phase 2 correlates with 250 mb anticyclonic anomalies (higher heights) over Canada, which indicates weaker winds and a greater chance of blocking. Both the Euro and GFS show the development of a rex/omega block around Hudson Bay, with the Euro having a stronger omega block at the end of the run.

It is too far out right now to know where the block will develop but it does look like that there will be some favorable blocking in place for the Eastern US in the next one to two weeks.

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The pattern looks like it will get more interesting as we head into the beginning of next week, with the MJO forecast by most of the global ensembles to enter phase 1. This should lead to a stronger subtropical jet and also allow for blocking to occur, especially if the MJO gets to a decent amplitude in phase 2. This is predicted by some of the ensembles as well, though the amplitude may not be as strong.

mjo_psi_comps.gif

As you can see in the MJO composites above, phase 2 correlates with 250 mb anticyclonic anomalies (higher heights) over Canada, which indicates weaker winds and a greater chance of blocking. Both the Euro and GFS show the development of a rex/omega block around Hudson Bay, with the Euro having a stronger omega block at the end of the run.

NH_HGT_500mb_240.gif

It is too far out right now to know where the block will develop but it does look like that there will be some favorable blocking in place for the Eastern US in the next one to two weeks.

Lets hope that we can get some good LES in before the end of the month.

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Lets hope that we can get some good LES in before the end of the month.

The 12z GFS shows some potential with a large omega block over The North Atlantic around hr 240, with an upper level low near Newfoundland. If we can get a low to retrograde over central Quebec and the omega block to hold that would be a good pattern for a multi-day LES event east of Lake Ontario.

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The 12z GFS shows some potential with a large omega block over The North Atlantic around hr 240, with an upper level low near Newfoundland. If we can get a low to retrograde over central Quebec and the omega block to hold that would be a good pattern for a multi-day LES event east of Lake Ontario.

I was looking at that, but I am not confident that it will come to fruition.

The only good thing going for me is that finals week is almost over. :)

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Are we in for a little surprise event here in the BUF metro area tonight? Any mets wanna chime in?

NWS going for 1-2"

http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p24.gif

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/

This shows a pretty nice band right over Metro from Midnight through 10 am. Maybe surprise few inch event! Lets hope!

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